RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Understanding the drivers of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission is crucial for control policies, but evidence of transmission rates in different settings remains limited. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to estimate secondary attack rates (SARs) and observed reproduction numbers (Robs) in different settings exploring differences by age, symptom status, and duration of exposure. To account for additional study heterogeneity, we employed a beta-binomial model to pool SARs across studies and a negative-binomial model to estimate Robs. RESULTS: Households showed the highest transmission rates, with a pooled SAR of 21.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]:17.4-24.8). SARs were significantly higher where the duration of household exposure exceeded 5 days compared with exposure of ≤5 days. SARs related to contacts at social events with family and friends were higher than those for low-risk casual contacts (5.9% vs 1.2%). Estimates of SARs and Robs for asymptomatic index cases were approximately one-seventh, and for presymptomatic two-thirds of those for symptomatic index cases. We found some evidence for reduced transmission potential both from and to individuals younger than 20 years of age in the household context, which is more limited when examining all settings. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that exposure in settings with familiar contacts increases SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential. Additionally, the differences observed in transmissibility by index case symptom status and duration of exposure have important implications for control strategies, such as contact tracing, testing, and rapid isolation of cases. There were limited data to explore transmission patterns in workplaces, schools, and care homes, highlighting the need for further research in such settings.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Trazado de Contacto , Composición Familiar , Humanos , IncidenciaRESUMEN
Introduction: Frailty has an important impact on the health outcomes of older patients, and frailty screening is recommended as part of perioperative evaluation. The Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) is a validated tool that highlights frailty risk using 109 International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. In this study, we aim to compare HFRS to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and validate HFRS as a predictor of adverse outcomes in Asian patients admitted to surgical services. Method: A retrospective study of electronic health records (EHR) was undertaken in patients aged 65 years and above who were discharged from surgical services between 1 April 2022 to 31 July 2022. Patients were stratified into low (HFRS <5), interme-diate (HFRS 5-15) and high (HFRS >15) risk of frailty. Results: Those at high risk of frailty were older and more likely to be men. They were also likely to have more comorbidities and a higher CCI than those at low risk of frailty. High HFRS scores were associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes, such as mortality, hospital length of stay (LOS) and 30-day readmission. When used in combination with CCI, there was better prediction of mortality at 90 and 270 days, and 30-day readmission. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this is the first validation of HFRS in Singapore in surgical patients and confirms that high-risk HFRS predicts long LOS (≥7days), increased unplanned hospital readmissions (both 30-day and 270-day) and increased mortality (inpatient, 10-day, 30-day, 90-day, 270-day) compared with those at low risk of frailty.