Modelling the relationship between malaria prevalence as a measure of transmission and mortality across age groups.

BACKGROUND: Parasite prevalence has been used widely as a measure of malaria transmission, especially in malaria endemic areas. However, its contribution and relationship to malaria mortality across different age groups has not been well investigated. Previous studies in a health and demographic surveillance systems (HDSS) platform in western Kenya quantified the contribution of incidence and entomological inoculation rates (EIR) to mortality. The study assessed the relationship between outcomes of malaria parasitaemia surveys and mortality across age groups. METHODS: Parasitological data from annual cross-sectional surveys from the Kisumu HDSS between 2007 and 2015 were used to determine malaria parasite prevalence (PP) and clinical malaria (parasites plus reported fever within 24 h or temperature above 37.5 °C). Household surveys and verbal autopsy (VA) were used to obtain data on all-cause and malaria-specific mortality. Bayesian negative binomial geo-statistical regression models were used to investigate the association of PP/clinical malaria with mortality across different age groups. Estimates based on yearly data were compared with those from aggregated data over 4 to 5-year periods, which is the typical period that mortality data are available from national demographic and health surveys. RESULTS: Using 5-year aggregated data, associations were established between parasite prevalence and malaria-specific mortality in the whole population (RRmalaria = 1.66; 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals: 1.07-2.54) and children 1-4 years (RRmalaria = 2.29; 1.17-4.29). While clinical malaria was associated with both all-cause and malaria-specific mortality in combined ages (RRall-cause = 1.32; 1.01-1.74); (RRmalaria = 2.50; 1.27-4.81), children 1-4 years (RRall-cause = 1.89; 1.00-3.51); (RRmalaria = 3.37; 1.23-8.93) and in older children 5-14 years (RRall-cause = 3.94; 1.34-11.10); (RRmalaria = 7.56; 1.20-39.54), no association was found among neonates, adults (15-59 years) and the elderly (60+ years). Distance to health facilities, socioeconomic status, elevation and survey year were important factors for all-cause and malaria-specific mortality. CONCLUSION: Malaria parasitaemia from cross-sectional surveys was associated with mortality across age groups over 4 to 5 year periods with clinical malaria more strongly associated with mortality than parasite prevalence. This effect was stronger in children 5-14 years compared to other age-groups. Further analyses of data from other HDSS sites or similar platforms would be useful in investigating the relationship between malaria and mortality across different endemicity levels.

Community-based intermittent mass testing and treatment for malaria in an area of high transmission intensity, western Kenya: development of study site infrastructure and lessons learned.

BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission is high in western Kenya and the asymptomatic infected population plays a significant role in driving the transmission. Mathematical modelling and simulation programs suggest that interventions targeting asymptomatic infections through mass testing and treatment (MTaT) or mass drug administration (MDA) have the potential to reduce malaria transmission when combined with existing interventions. OBJECTIVE: This paper describes the study site, capacity development efforts required, and lessons learned for implementing a multi-year community-based cluster-randomized controlled trial to evaluate the impact of MTaT for malaria transmission reduction in an area of high transmission in western Kenya. METHODS: The study partnered with Kenya's Ministry of Health (MOH) and other organizations on community sensitization and engagement to mobilize, train and deploy community health volunteers (CHVs) to deliver MTaT in the community. Within the health facilities, the study availed staff, medical and laboratory supplies and strengthened health information management system to monitor progress and evaluate impact of intervention. RESULTS: More than 80 Kenya MOH CHVs, 13 clinical officers, field workers, data and logistical staff were trained to carry out MTaT three times a year for 2 years in a population of approximately 90,000 individuals. A supply chain management was adapted to meet daily demands for large volumes of commodities despite the limitation of few MOH facilities having ideal storage conditions. Modern technology was adapted more to meet the needs of the high daily volume of collected data. CONCLUSIONS: In resource-constrained settings, large interventions require capacity building and logistical planning. This study found that investing in relationships with the communities, local governments, and other partners, and identifying and equipping the appropriate staff with the skills and technology to perform tasks are important factors for success in delivering an intervention like MTaT.

Assessment of submicroscopic infections and gametocyte carriage of Plasmodium falciparum during peak malaria transmission season in a community-based cross-sectional survey in western Kenya, 2012.

BACKGROUND: Although malaria control intervention has greatly decreased malaria morbidity and mortality in many African countries, further decline in parasite prevalence has stagnated in western Kenya. In order to assess if malaria transmission reservoir is associated with this stagnation, submicroscopic infection and gametocyte carriage was estimated. Risk factors and associations between malaria control interventions and gametocyte carriage were further investigated in this study. METHODS: A total of 996 dried blood spot samples were used from two strata, all smear-positives (516 samples) and randomly selected smear-negatives (480 samples), from a community cross-sectional survey conducted at peak transmission season in 2012 in Siaya County, western Kenya. Plasmodium falciparum parasite presence and density were determined by stained blood smear and by 18S mRNA transcripts using nucleic acid sequence-based amplification assay (NASBA), gametocyte presence and density were determined by blood smear and by Pfs25 mRNA-NASBA, and gametocyte diversity by Pfg377 mRNA RT-PCR and RT-qPCR. RESULTS: Of the randomly selected smear-negative samples, 69.6 % (334/480) were positive by 18S-NASBA while 18S-NASBA detected 99.6 % (514/516) smear positive samples. Overall, 80.2 % of the weighted population was parasite positive by 18S-NASBA vs 30.6 % by smear diagnosis and 44.0 % of the weighted population was gametocyte positive by Pfs25-NASBA vs 2.6 % by smear diagnosis. Children 5-15 years old were more likely to be parasitaemic and gametocytaemic by NASBA than individuals >15 years old or children <5 years old while gametocyte density decreased with age. Anaemia and self-reported fever within the past 24 h were associated with increased odds of gametocytaemia. Fever was also positively associated with parasite density, but not with gametocyte density. Anti-malarial use within the past 2 weeks decreased the odds of gametocytaemia, but not the odds of parasitaemia. In contrast, recent anti-malarial use was associated with lowered parasite density, but not the gametocyte density. Use of ITNs was associated with lower odds for parasitaemia in part of the study area with a longer history of ITN interventions. In the same part of study area, the odds of having multiple gametocyte alleles were also lower in individuals using ITNs than in those not using ITNs and parasite density was positively associated with gametocyte diversity. CONCLUSION: A large proportion of submicroscopic parasites and gametocytes in western Kenya might contribute to the stagnation in malaria prevalence, suggesting that additional interventions targeting the infectious reservoir are needed. As school aged children and persons with anaemia and fever were major sources for gametocyte reservoir, these groups should be targeted for intervention and prevention to reduce malaria transmission. Anti-malarial use was associated with lower parasite density and odds of gametocytaemia, but not the gametocyte density, indicating a limitation of anti-malarial impact on the transmission reservoir. ITN use had a protective role against parasitaemia and gametocyte diversity in western Kenya.

Genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum parasite by microsatellite markers after scale-up of insecticide-treated bed nets in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: An initial study of genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum in Asembo, western Kenya showed that the parasite maintained overall genetic stability 5 years after insecticide-treated bed net (ITN) introduction in 1997. This study investigates further the genetic diversity of P. falciparum 10 years after initial ITN introduction in the same study area and compares this with two other neighbouring areas, where ITNs were introduced in 1998 (Gem) and 2004 (Karemo). METHODS: From a cross-sectional survey conducted in 2007, 235 smear-positive blood samples collected from children ≤15-year-old in the original study area and two comparison areas were genotyped employing eight neutral microsatellites. Differences in multiple infections, allele frequency, parasite genetic diversity and parasite population structure between the three areas were assessed. Further, molecular data reported previously (1996 and 2001) were compared to the 2007 results in the original study area Asembo. RESULTS: Overall proportion of multiple infections (MA) declined with time in the original study area Asembo (from 95.9 %-2001 to 87.7 %-2007). In the neighbouring areas, MA was lower in the site where ITNs were introduced in 1998 (Gem 83.7 %) compared to where they were introduced in 2004 (Karemo 96.7 %) in 2007. Overall mean allele count (MAC ~ 2.65) and overall unbiased heterozygosity (H e  ~ 0.77) remained unchanged in 1996, 2001 and 2007 in Asembo and was the same level across the two neighbouring areas in 2007. Overall parasite population differentiation remained low over time and in the three areas at FST < 0.04. Both pairwise and multilocus linkage disequilibrium showed limited to no significant association between alleles in Asembo (1996, 2001 and 2007) and between three areas. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the P. falciparum high genetic diversity and parasite population resilience on samples collected 10 years apart and in different areas in western Kenya. The results highlight the need for long-term molecular monitoring after implementation and use of combined and intensive prevention and intervention measures in the region.

Assessment of molecular markers for anti-malarial drug resistance after the introduction and scale-up of malaria control interventions in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Although it is well known that drug pressure selects for drug-resistant parasites, the role of transmission reduction by insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) on drug resistance remains unclear. In this study, the drug resistance profile of current and previous first-line anti-malarials in Kenya was assessed within the context of drug policy change and scale-up of ITNs. National first-line treatment changed from chloroquine (CQ) to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in 1998 and to artemether-lumefantrine (AL) in 2004. ITN use was scaled-up in the Asembo, Gem and Karemo areas of western Kenya in 1997, 1999 and 2006, respectively. METHODS: Smear-positive samples (N = 253) collected from a 2007 cross-sectional survey among children in Asembo, Gem and Karemo were genotyped for mutations in pfcrt and pfmdr1 (CQ), dhfr and dhps (SP), and at pfmdr-N86 and the gene copy number in pfmdr1 (lumefantrine). Results were compared among the three geographic areas in 2007 and to retrospective molecular data from children in Asembo in 2001. RESULTS: In 2007, 69 and 85% of samples harboured the pfmdr1-86Y mutation and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant, respectively, with no significant differences by study area. However, the prevalence of the pfcrt-76T mutation differed significantly among areas (p <0.02), between 76 and 94%, with the highest prevalence in Asembo. Several 2007 samples carried mutations at dhfr-164L, dhps-436A, or dhps-613T. From 2001 to 2007, there were significant increases in the pfcrt-76T mutation from 82 to 94% (p <0.03), dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant from 62 to 82% (p <0.03), and an increase in the septuple CQ and SP combined mutant haplotype, K 76 Y 86 I 51 R 59 N 108 G 437 E 540 , from 28 to 39%. The prevalence of the pfmdr1-86Y mutation remained unchanged. All samples were single copy for pfmdr1. CONCLUSIONS: Molecular markers associated with lumefantrine resistance were not detected in 2007. More recent samples will be needed to detect any selective effects by AL. The prevalence of CQ and SP resistance markers increased from 2001 to 2007 in the absence of changes in transmission intensity. In 2007, only the prevalence of pfcrt-76T mutation differed among study areas of varying transmission intensity. Resistant parasites were most likely selected by sustained drug pressure from the continued use of CQ, SP, and mechanistically similar drugs, such as amodiaquine and cotrimoxazole. There was no clear evidence that differences in transmission intensity, as a result of ITN scale-up, influenced the prevalence of drug resistance molecular markers.

The influence of demographic and socio-economic factors on non-vaccination, under-vaccination and missed opportunities for vaccination amongst children 0-23 months in Kenya for the period 2003-2014.

Vaccination is crucial in reducing child mortality and the prevalence of Vaccine-Preventable-Diseases (VPD), especially in low-and-middle-income countries like Kenya. However, non-vaccination, under-vaccination, and missed opportunities for vaccination (MOV) pose significant challenges to these efforts. This study aimed to analyze the impact of demographic and socio-economic factors on non-vaccination, under-vaccination, and MOV among children aged 0-23 months in Kenya from 2003 to 2014. A secondary data analysis of data from the Kenya Demographic Health Surveys (KDHS) conducted during this period was conducted, with a total of 11,997 participants, using a two-stage, multi-stage, and stratified sampling technique. The study examined factors such as child's sex, residence, mother's age, marital status, religion, birth order, maternal education, wealth quintile, province, child's birth order, parity, number of children in the household, place of delivery, and mother's occupation. Binary logistic regression was employed to identify the determinants of non-vaccination, under-vaccination, and MOV, and multivariable logistic regression analysis to report odds ratios (OR) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). In 2003, the likelihood of non-vaccination decreased with higher maternal education levels: mothers who did not complete primary education (AOR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.37-0.81), completed primary education (AOR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.21-0.56), and had secondary education or higher (AOR = 0.26, 95% CI = 0.14-0.50) exhibited decreasing probabilities. In 2008/09, divorced/separated/widowed mothers (AOR = 0.22, 95% CI = 0.07-0.65) and those with no religion (AOR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.17-0.81) showed lower odds of non-vaccination, while lower wealth quintiles were associated with higher odds. In 2014, non-vaccination was higher among younger mothers aged 15-19 years (AOR = 12.53, 95% CI = 1.59-98.73), in North Eastern Province (AOR = 7.15, 95% CI = 2.02-25.30), in families with more than 5 children (AOR = 4.19, 95% CI = 1.09-16.18), and in children born at home (AOR = 4.47, 95% CI = 1.32-15.17). Similar patterns were observed for under-vaccination and MOV. This information can inform strategies for bridging the gaps in immunization coverage and promoting equitable vaccination practices in Kenya.

Trends of non-vaccination, under-vaccination and missed opportunities for vaccination (2003-2014) amongst children 0-23 months in Kenya.

Vaccines are effective and cost-effective. Non-vaccination, under-vaccination, and missed opportunities for vaccination (MOV), have contributed to incomplete vaccination coverage in Kenya. Analyzing their trends is essential for targeting interventions and improvement strategies. This study aimed to assess trends of non-vaccination, under-vaccination, and MOV among children aged 0-23 months in Kenya using data obtained from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) conducted in 2003, 2008/09, and 2014. A two-stage, multi-stage, and stratified sampling technique was used. Weighted analysis was conducted to ensure generalizability to the full population. Using the KDHS sample size estimation process, the sample size was estimated for each indicator, with varying standard error estimates, level of coverage and estimated response rates. Final sample size was 2380 (2003), 2237 (2008/09) and 7380 (2014). To determine the level of non-vaccination, under-vaccination and MOV among children aged 0-23 months, a weighted descriptive analysis was used to estimate their prevalence, with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each year. MOV was defined using an algorithm as a binary variable. Data coding and recoding were done using Stata (version 14; College Station, TX: StataCorp LP). Trends in proportions of non-vaccination, under-vaccination and MOV were compared between 2003, 2008/09, and 2014 using the Cochrane-Armitage trend test. All results with P≤0.05 were considered statistically significant. Trends in proportion of non-vaccination among children aged 0-23 months in Kenya was 13.2%, 6.1% and 3.2% in 2003, 2008/09 and 2014, respectively (P = 0.0001). Trends in proportion of under-vaccination among children aged 0-23 months in Kenya was 54.3%, 50% and 51.3% in 2003, 2008/09 and 2014, respectively (P = 0.0109). The trends in proportion of children who experienced MOV was 22.7% in 2003, 31.9% in 2008/09 and 37.6% in 2014 (P = 0.0001). In the study duration, non-vaccination decreased by 10%, under-vaccination remained relatively stable, and MOV increased by ~15%. There is need for the Government and partners to implement initiatives that improve vaccine access and coverage, particularly in regions with low coverage rates, and to address missed opportunities for vaccination.

A randomized trial of artemether-lumefantrine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in the treatment of uncomplicated malaria among children in western Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Artemether-lumefantrine (AL) was adopted as first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria in Kenya in 2006. Monitoring drug efficacy at regular intervals is essential to prevent unnecessary morbidity and mortality. The efficacy of AL and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) were evaluated for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria in children aged six to 59 months in western Kenya. METHODS: From October 2010 to August 2011, children with fever or history of fever with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum mono-infection were enrolled in an in vivo efficacy trial in accordance with World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. The children were randomized to treatment with a three-day course of AL or DP and efficacy outcomes were measured at 28 and 42 days after treatment initiation. RESULTS: A total of 137 children were enrolled in each treatment arm. There were no early treatment failures and all children except one had cleared parasites by day 3. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-uncorrected adequate clinical and parasitological response rate (ACPR) was 61% in the AL arm and 83% in the DP arm at day 28 (p = 0.001). PCR-corrected ACPR at day 28 was 97% in the AL group and 99% in the DP group, and it was 96% in both arms at day 42. CONCLUSIONS: AL and DP remain efficacious for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria among children in western Kenya. The longer half-life of piperaquine relative to lumefantrine may provide a prophylactic effect, accounting for the lower rate of re-infection in the first 28 days after treatment in the DP arm.