Seroprevalence of Antibodies to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Among Healthcare Workers in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have assessed the seroprevalence of antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among healthcare workers (HCWs) in Africa. We report findings from a survey among HCWs in 3 counties in Kenya. METHODS: We recruited 684 HCWs from Kilifi (rural), Busia (rural), and Nairobi (urban) counties. The serosurvey was conducted between 30 July and 4 December 2020. We tested for immunoglobulin G antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Assay sensitivity and specificity were 92.7 (95% CI, 87.9-96.1) and 99.0% (95% CI, 98.1-99.5), respectively. We adjusted prevalence estimates, using bayesian modeling to account for assay performance. RESULTS: The crude overall seroprevalence was 19.7% (135 of 684). After adjustment for assay performance, seroprevalence was 20.8% (95% credible interval, 17.5%-24.4%). Seroprevalence varied significantly (P < .001) by site: 43.8% (95% credible interval, 35.8%-52.2%) in Nairobi, 12.6% (8.8%-17.1%) in Busia and 11.5% (7.2%-17.6%) in Kilifi. In a multivariable model controlling for age, sex, and site, professional cadre was not associated with differences in seroprevalence. CONCLUSION: These initial data demonstrate a high seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among HCWs in Kenya. There was significant variation in seroprevalence by region, but not by cadre.

Controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) outcomes in Kenyan adults is associated with prior history of malaria exposure and anti-schizont antibody response.

BACKGROUND: Individuals living in endemic areas acquire immunity to malaria following repeated parasite exposure. We sought to assess the controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) model as a means of studying naturally acquired immunity in Kenyan adults with varying malaria exposure. METHODS: We analysed data from 142 Kenyan adults from three locations representing distinct areas of malaria endemicity (Ahero, Kilifi North and Kilifi South) enrolled in a CHMI study with Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites NF54 strain (Sanaria® PfSPZ Challenge). To identify the in vivo outcomes that most closely reflected naturally acquired immunity, parameters based on qPCR measurements were compared with anti-schizont antibody levels and residence as proxy markers of naturally acquired immunity. RESULTS: Time to endpoint correlated more closely with anti-schizont antibodies and location of residence than other parasite parameters such as growth rate or mean parasite density. Compared to observational field-based studies in children where 0.8% of the variability in malaria outcome was observed to be explained by anti-schizont antibodies, in the CHMI model the dichotomized anti-schizont antibodies explained 17% of the variability. CONCLUSIONS: The CHMI model is highly effective in studying markers of naturally acquired immunity to malaria. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov number NCT02739763. Registered 15 April 2016.

Malaria exposure drives both cognate and bystander human B cells to adopt an atypical phenotype.

Atypical memory B cells (aMBCs) are found in elevated numbers in individuals exposed to malaria. A key question is whether malaria induces aMBCs as a result of exposure to Ag, or non-Ag-specific mechanisms. We identified Plasmodium and bystander tetanus toxoid (TT) specific B cells in individuals from areas of previous and persistent exposure to malaria using tetramers. Malaria-specific B cells were more likely to be aMBCs than TT-specific B cells. However, TT-specific B cells from individuals with continuous exposure to malaria were more likely to be aMBCs than TT-specific B cells in individuals from areas where transmission has ceased. Finally, sequences of BCRs specific for a blood stage malaria-Ag were more highly mutated than sequences from TT-specific BCRs and under strong negative selection, indicative of ongoing antigenic pressure. Our data suggest both persistent Ag exposure and the inflammatory environment shape the B-cell response to malaria and bystander Ags.

Seven-year kinetics of RTS, S/AS01-induced anti-CSP antibodies in young Kenyan children.

BACKGROUND: RTS,S/AS01, the leading malaria vaccine has been recommended by the WHO for widespread immunization of children at risk. RTS,S/AS01-induced anti-CSP IgG antibodies are associated with the vaccine efficacy. Here, the long-term kinetics of RTS,S/AS01-induced antibodies was investigated. METHODS: 150 participants were randomly selected from the 447 children who participated in the RTS,S/AS01 phase IIb clinical trial in 2007 from Kilifi-Kenya. Cumulatively, the retrospective follow-up period was 93 months with annual plasma samples collection. The levels of anti-CSP IgM, total IgG, IgG1, IgG2, IgG3, and IgG4 antibodies were then determined using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: RTS,S/AS01 induced high levels of anti-CSP IgG antibodies which exhibited a rapid waning over 6.5 months post-vaccination, followed by a slower decay over the subsequent years. RTS,S/AS01-induced anti-CSP IgG antibodies remained elevated above the control group levels throughout the 7 years follow-up period. The anti-CSP IgG antibodies were mostly IgG1, IgG3, IgG2, and to a lesser extent IgG4. IgG2 predominated in later timepoints. RTS,S/AS01 also induced high levels of anti-CSP IgM antibodies which increased above the control group levels by month 3. The controls exhibited increasing levels of the anti-CSP IgM antibodies which caught up with the RTS,S/AS01 vaccinees levels by month 21. In contrast, there were no measurable anti-CSP IgG antibodies among the controls. CONCLUSION: RTS,S/AS01-induced anti-CSP IgG antibodies kinetics are consistent with long-lived but waning vaccine efficacy. Natural exposure induces anti-CSP IgM antibodies in children, which increases with age, but does not induce substantial levels of anti-CSP IgG antibodies.

Endemic chikungunya fever in Kenyan children: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) was first described in Tanzania in 1952. Several epidemics including East Africa have occurred, but there are no descriptions of longitudinal surveillance of endemic disease. Here, we estimate the incidence of CHIKF in coastal Kenya and describe the associated viral phylogeny. METHODS: We monitored acute febrile illnesses among 3500 children visiting two primary healthcare facilities in coastal Kenya over a 5-year period (2014-2018). Episodes were linked to a demographic surveillance system and blood samples obtained. Cross-sectional sampling in a community survey of a different group of 435 asymptomatic children in the same study location was done in 2016. Reverse-transcriptase PCR was used for chikungunya virus (CHIKV) screening, and viral genomes sequenced for phylogenetic analyses. RESULTS: We found CHIKF to be endemic in this setting, associated with 12.7% (95% CI 11.60, 13.80) of all febrile presentations to primary healthcare. The prevalence of CHIKV infections among asymptomatic children in the community survey was 0.7% (95% CI 0.22, 2.12). CHIKF incidence among children < 1 year of age was 1190 cases/100,000-person years and 63 cases/100,000-person years among children aged ≥10 years. Recurrent CHIKF episodes, associated with fever and viraemia, were observed among 19 of 170 children with multiple febrile episodes during the study period. All sequenced viral genomes mapped to the ECSA genotype albeit distinct from CHIKV strains associated with the 2004 East African epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: CHIKF may be a substantial public health burden in primary healthcare on the East African coast outside epidemic years, and recurrent infections are common.

Age-dependent acquisition of IgG antibodies to Shigella serotypes-a retrospective analysis of seroprevalence in Kenyan children with implications for infant vaccination.

Background: Shigellosis mainly affects children under 5 years of age living in low- and middle-income countries, who are the target population for vaccination. There are, however, limited data available to define the appropriate timing for vaccine administration in this age group. Information on antibody responses following natural infection, proxy for exposure, could help guide vaccination strategies. Methods: We undertook a retrospective analysis of antibodies to five of the most prevalent Shigella serotypes among children aged <5 years in Kenya. Serum samples from a cross-sectional serosurvey in three Kenyan sites (Nairobi, Siaya, and Kilifi) were analyzed by standardized ELISA to measure IgG against Shigella sonnei and Shigella flexneri 1b, 2a, 3a, and 6. We identified factors associated with seropositivity to each Shigella serotype, including seropositivity to other Shigella serotypes. Results: A total of 474 samples, one for each participant, were analyzed: Nairobi (n = 169), Siaya (n = 185), and Kilifi (n = 120). The median age of the participants was 13.4 months (IQR 7.0-35.6), and the male:female ratio was 1:1. Geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) for each serotype increased with age, mostly in the second year of life. The overall seroprevalence of IgG antibodies increased with age except for S. flexneri 6 which was high across all age subgroups. In the second year of life, there was a statistically significant increase of antibody GMCs against all five serotypes (p = 0.01-0.0001) and a significant increase of seroprevalence for S. flexneri 2a (p = 0.006), S. flexneri 3a (p = 0.006), and S. sonnei (p = 0.05) compared with the second part of the first year of life. Among all possible pairwise comparisons of antibody seropositivity, there was a significant association between S. flexneri 1b and 2a (OR = 6.75, 95% CI 3-14, p < 0.001) and between S. flexneri 1b and 3a (OR = 23.85, 95% CI 11-54, p < 0.001). Conclusion: Children living in low- and middle-income settings such as Kenya are exposed to Shigella infection starting from the first year of life and acquire serotype-specific antibodies against multiple serotypes. The data from this study suggest that Shigella vaccination should be targeted to infants, ideally at 6 or at least 9 months of age, to ensure children are protected in the second year of life when exposure significantly increases.

Safety and immunogenicity of varied doses of R21/Matrix-M™ vaccine at three years follow-up: A phase 1b age de-escalation, dose-escalation trial in adults, children, and infants in Kilifi-Kenya.

Background: Falciparum malaria remains a global health problem. Two vaccines, based on the circumsporozoite antigen, are available. RTS, S/AS01 was recommended for use in 2021 following the advice of the World Health Organisation (WHO) Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) on Immunization and WHO Malaria Policy Advisory Group (MPAG). It has since been pre-qualified in 2022 by the WHO. R21 is similar to RTS, S/AS01, and recently licensed in Nigeria, Ghana and Burkina Faso following Phase 3 trial results. Methods: We conducted a Phase 1b age de-escalation, dose escalation bridging study after a change in the manufacturing process for R21. We recruited healthy adults and children and used a three dose primary vaccination series with a booster dose at 1-2 years. Variable doses of R21 and adjuvant (Matrix-M ™) were administered at 10µgR21/50 µg Matrix-M™, 5µgR21/25µg Matrix-M™ and 5µgR21/50µg Matrix-M™ to 20 adults, 20 children, and 51 infants. Results: Self-limiting adverse events were reported relating to the injection site and mild systemic symptoms. Two serious adverse events were reported, neither linked to vaccination. High levels of IgG antibodies to the circumsporozoite antigen were induced, and geometric mean titres in infants, the target group, were 1.1 (0.9 to 1.3) EU/mL at day 0, 10175 (7724 to 13404) EU/mL at day 84 and (following a booster dose at day 421) 6792 (5310 to 8687) EU/mL at day 456. Conclusion: R21/Matrix-M™ is safe, and immunogenic when given at varied doses with the peak immune response seen in infants 28 days after a three dose primary vaccination series given four weeks apart. Antibody responses were restored 28 days after a 4 th dose given one year post a three dose primary series in the young children and infants. Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03580824; 9 th of July 2018; Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR202105682956280; 17 th May 2021).

Anti-merozoite antibodies induce natural killer cell effector function and are associated with immunity against malaria.

Natural killer (NK) cells are potent immune effectors that can be activated via antibody-mediated Fc receptor engagement. Using multiparameter flow cytometry, we found that NK cells degranulate and release IFN-γ upon stimulation with antibody-opsonized Plasmodium falciparum merozoites. Antibody-dependent NK (Ab-NK) activity was largely strain transcending and enhanced invasion inhibition into erythrocytes. Ab-NK was associated with the successful control of parasitemia after experimental malaria challenge in African adults. In an independent cohort study in children, Ab-NK increased with age, was boosted by concurrent P. falciparum infections, and was associated with a lower risk of clinical episodes of malaria. Nine of the 14 vaccine candidates tested induced Ab-NK, including some less well-characterized antigens: P41, P113, MSP11, RHOPH3, and Pf_11363200. These data highlight an important role of Ab-NK activity in immunity against malaria and provide a potential mechanism for evaluating vaccine candidates.

Strategies for constructing pluripotent stem cell- and progenitor cell-derived three-dimensional cardiac micro-tissues.

Three-dimensional (3D) cardiac micro-tissue is a promising model for simulating the structural and functional features of heart in vitro. This scientific achievement provides a platform for exploration about the mechanisms on the development, damage, and regeneration of tissue, hence, paving a way toward development of novel therapies for heart diseases. However, 3D micro-tissue technology is still in its infant stages faced with many challenges such as incompleteness of the tissue microarchitecture, loss of the resident immune cells, poor reproducibility, and deficiencies in continuously feeding the nutrients and removing wastes during micro-tissue culturing. There is an urgent need to optimize the construction of 3D cardiac micro-tissue and improve functions of the involved cells. Therefore, scaffolds and cell resources for building 3D cardiac micro-tissues, strategies for inducing the maturation and functionalization of pluripotent stem cell- or cardiac progenitor cell-derived cardiomyocytes, and the major challenges were reviewed in this writing to enable future fabrication of 3D cardiac micro-tissues or organoids for drug screening, disease modeling, regeneration treatment, and so on.

Plasmodium falciparum-Specific Memory B-Cell and Antibody Responses Are Associated With Immunity in Children Living in an Endemic Area of Kenya.

Identifying the mechanism of naturally acquired immunity against Plasmodium falciparum malaria could contribute to the design of effective malaria vaccines. Using a recently developed multiplexed FluoroSpot assay, we assessed cross-sectional pre-existing memory B-cells (MBCs) and antibody responses against six well known P. falciparum antigens (MSP-119, MSP-2 (3D7), MSP-2 (FC27), MSP-3, AMA-1 and CSP) and measured their associations with previous infections and time to clinical malaria in the ensuing malaria season in Kenyan children. These children were under active weekly surveillance for malaria as part of a long-term longitudinal malaria immunology cohort study, where they are recruited from birth. After performing Cox regression analysis, we found that children with a breadth of three or more antigen-specific MBC or antibody responses at the baseline had a reduced risk for malaria in the ensuing P. falciparum transmission season. Specifically, MBC responses against AMA-1, MSP-2 (3D7) and MSP-3, as well as antibody responses to MSP-2 (3D7) and MSP-3 were prospectively associated with a reduced risk for malaria. The magnitude or breadth of MBC responses were however not correlated with the cumulative number of malaria episodes since birth. We conclude that increased breadth for merozoite antigen-specific MBC and antibody responses is associated with protection against malaria.

Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: A few studies have assessed the epidemiological impact and the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in settings where most of the population had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya from a societal perspective over a 1.5-year time frame. An age-structured transmission model assumed at least 80% of the population to have prior natural immunity when an immune escape variant was introduced. We examine the effect of slow (18 months) or rapid (6 months) vaccine roll-out with vaccine coverage of 30%, 50% or 70% of the adult (>18 years) population prioritising roll-out in those over 50-years (80% uptake in all scenarios). Cost data were obtained from primary analyses. We assumed vaccine procurement at US$7 per dose and vaccine delivery costs of US$3.90-US$6.11 per dose. The cost-effectiveness threshold was US$919.11. FINDINGS: Slow roll-out at 30% coverage largely targets those over 50 years and resulted in 54% fewer deaths (8132 (7914-8373)) than no vaccination and was cost saving (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER=US$-1343 (US$-1345 to US$-1341) per disability-adjusted life-year, DALY averted). Increasing coverage to 50% and 70%, further reduced deaths by 12% (810 (757-872) and 5% (282 (251-317) but was not cost-effective, using Kenya's cost-effectiveness threshold (US$919.11). Rapid roll-out with 30% coverage averted 63% more deaths and was more cost-saving (ICER=US$-1607 (US$-1609 to US$-1604) per DALY averted) compared with slow roll-out at the same coverage level, but 50% and 70% coverage scenarios were not cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: With prior exposure partially protecting much of the Kenyan population, vaccination of young adults may no longer be cost-effective.

Epidemiology of COVID-19 infections on routine polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and serology testing in Coastal Kenya.

Background: There are limited studies in Africa describing the epidemiology, clinical characteristics and serostatus of individuals tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We tested routine samples from the Coastal part of Kenya between 17 th March 2020 and 30 th June 2021. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 infections identified using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and clinical surveillance data at the point of sample collection were used to classify as either symptomatic or asymptomatic. IgG antibodies were measured in sera samples, using a well validated in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results: Mombasa accounted for 56.2% of all the 99,694 naso-pharyngeal/oro-pharyngeal swabs tested, and males constituted the majority tested (73.4%). A total of 7737 (7.7%) individuals were SARS-CoV-2 positive by RT-PCR. The majority (i.e., 92.4%) of the RT-PCR positive individuals were asymptomatic. Testing was dominated by mass screening and travellers, and even at health facility level 91.6% of tests were from individuals without symptoms. Out of the 97,124 tests from asymptomatic individuals 7,149 (7%) were positive and of the 2,568 symptomatic individuals 588 (23%) were positive. In total, 2458 serum samples were submitted with paired naso-pharyngeal/oro-pharyngeal samples and 45% of the RT-PCR positive samples and 20% of the RT-PCR negative samples were paired with positive serum samples. Symptomatic individuals had significantly higher antibody levels than asymptomatic individuals and become RT-PCR negative on repeat testing earlier than asymptomatic individuals. Conclusions: In conclusion, the majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections identified by routine testing in Coastal Kenya were asymptomatic. This reflects the testing practice of health services in Kenya, but also implies that asymptomatic infection is very common in the population. Symptomatic infection may be less common, or it may be that individuals do not present for testing when they have symptoms.

Transmission networks of SARS-CoV-2 in Coastal Kenya during the first two waves: A retrospective genomic study.

Background: Detailed understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) regional transmission networks within sub-Saharan Africa is key for guiding local public health interventions against the pandemic. Methods: Here, we analysed 1139 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from positive samples collected between March 2020 and February 2021 across six counties of Coastal Kenya (Mombasa, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Tana River, and Lamu) to infer virus introductions and local transmission patterns during the first two waves of infections. Virus importations were inferred using ancestral state reconstruction, and virus dispersal between counties was estimated using discrete phylogeographic analysis. Results: During Wave 1, 23 distinct Pango lineages were detected across the six counties, while during Wave 2, 29 lineages were detected; 9 of which occurred in both waves and 4 seemed to be Kenya specific (B.1.530, B.1.549, B.1.596.1, and N.8). Most of the sequenced infections belonged to lineage B.1 (n = 723, 63%), which predominated in both Wave 1 (73%, followed by lineages N.8 [6%] and B.1.1 [6%]) and Wave 2 (56%, followed by lineages B.1.549 [21%] and B.1.530 [5%]). Over the study period, we estimated 280 SARS-CoV-2 virus importations into Coastal Kenya. Mombasa City, a vital tourist and commercial centre for the region, was a major route for virus imports, most of which occurred during Wave 1, when many Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) government restrictions were still in force. In Wave 2, inter-county transmission predominated, resulting in the emergence of local transmission chains and diversity. Conclusions: Our analysis supports moving COVID-19 control strategies in the region from a focus on international travel to strategies that will reduce local transmission. Funding: This work was funded by The Wellcome (grant numbers: 220985, 203077/Z/16/Z, 220977/Z/20/Z, and 222574/Z/21/Z) and the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), project references: 17/63/and 16/136/33 using UK Aid from the UK government to support global health research, The UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the funding agencies.

Sero-surveillance for IgG to SARS-CoV-2 at antenatal care clinics in three Kenyan referral hospitals: Repeated cross-sectional surveys 2020-21.

INTRODUCTION: The high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have remained undetected presents a challenge to tracking the progress of the pandemic and estimating the extent of population immunity. METHODS: We used residual blood samples from women attending antenatal care services at three hospitals in Kenya between August 2020 and October 2021and a validated IgG ELISA for SARS-Cov-2 spike protein and adjusted the results for assay sensitivity and specificity. We fitted a two-component mixture model as an alternative to the threshold analysis to estimate of the proportion of individuals with past SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: We estimated seroprevalence in 2,981 women; 706 in Nairobi, 567 in Busia and 1,708 in Kilifi. By October 2021, 13% of participants were vaccinated (at least one dose) in Nairobi, 2% in Busia. Adjusted seroprevalence rose in all sites; from 50% (95%CI 42-58) in August 2020, to 85% (95%CI 78-92) in October 2021 in Nairobi; from 31% (95%CI 25-37) in May 2021 to 71% (95%CI 64-77) in October 2021 in Busia; and from 1% (95% CI 0-3) in September 2020 to 63% (95% CI 56-69) in October 2021 in Kilifi. Mixture modelling, suggests adjusted cross-sectional prevalence estimates are underestimates; seroprevalence in October 2021 could be 74% in Busia and 72% in Kilifi. CONCLUSIONS: There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi Counties. Due to the length of time since the beginning of the pandemic, repeated cross-sectional surveys are now difficult to interpret without the use of models to account for antibody waning.

Safety and PCR monitoring in 161 semi-immune Kenyan adults following controlled human malaria infection.

BACKGROUNDNaturally acquired immunity to malaria is incompletely understood. We used controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) to study the impact of past exposure on malaria in Kenyan adults in relation to infection with a non-Kenyan parasite strain.METHODSWe administered 3.2 × 103 aseptic, purified, cryopreserved Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites (Sanaria PfSPZ Challenge, NF54 West African strain) by direct venous inoculation and undertook clinical monitoring and serial quantitative PCR (qPCR) of the 18S ribosomal RNA gene. The study endpoint was met when parasitemia reached 500 or more parasites per µL blood, clinically important symptoms were seen, or at 21 days after inoculation. All volunteers received antimalarial drug treatment upon meeting the endpoint.RESULTSOne hundred and sixty-one volunteers underwent CHMI between August 4, 2016, and February 14, 2018. CHMI was well tolerated, with no severe or serious adverse events. Nineteen volunteers (11.8%) were excluded from the analysis based on detection of antimalarial drugs above the minimal inhibitory concentration or parasites genotyped as non-NF54. Of the 142 volunteers who were eligible for analysis, 26 (18.3%) had febrile symptoms and were treated; 30 (21.1%) reached 500 or more parasites per µL and were treated; 53 (37.3%) had parasitemia without meeting thresholds for treatment; and 33 (23.2%) remained qPCR negative.CONCLUSIONWe found that past exposure to malaria, as evidenced by location of residence, in some Kenyan adults can completely suppress in vivo growth of a parasite strain originating from outside Kenya.TRIAL REGISTRATIONClinicalTrials.gov NCT02739763.FUNDINGWellcome Trust.

10-year longitudinal study of malaria in children: Insights into acquisition and maintenance of naturally acquired immunity.

Background: Studies of long-term malaria cohorts have provided essential insights into how Plasmodium falciparum interacts with humans, and influences the development of antimalarial immunity. Immunity to malaria is acquired gradually after multiple infections, some of which present with clinical symptoms. However, there is considerable variation in the number of clinical episodes experienced by children of the same age within the same cohort. Understanding this variation in clinical symptoms and how it relates to the development of naturally acquired immunity is crucial in identifying how and when some children stop experiencing further malaria episodes. Where variability in clinical episodes may result from different rates of acquisition of immunity, or from variable exposure to the parasite. Methods: Using data from a longitudinal cohort of children residing in an area of moderate P. falciparum transmission in Kilifi district, Kenya, we fitted cumulative episode curves as monotonic-increasing splines, to 56 children under surveillance for malaria from the age of 5 to 15. Results: There was large variability in the accumulation of numbers of clinical malaria episodes experienced by the children, despite being of similar age and living in the same general location. One group of children from a particular sub-region of the cohort stopped accumulating clinical malaria episodes earlier than other children in the study. Despite lack of further clinical episodes of malaria, these children had higher asymptomatic parasite densities and higher antibody titres to a panel of P. falciparum blood-stage antigens. Conclusions: This suggests development of clinical immunity rather than lack of exposure to the parasite, and supports the view that this immunity to malaria disease is maintained by a greater exposure to P. falciparum, and thus higher parasite burdens. Our study illustrates the complexity of anti-malaria immunity and underscores the need for analyses which can sufficiently reflect the heterogeneity within endemic populations.

Individual-level variations in malaria susceptibility and acquisition of clinical protection.

After decades of research, our understanding of when and why individuals infected with Plasmodium falciparum develop clinical malaria is still limited. Correlates of immune protection are often sought through prospective cohort studies, where measured host factors are correlated against the incidence of clinical disease over a set period of time. However, robustly inferring individual-level protection from these population-level findings has proved difficult due to small effect sizes and high levels of variance underlying such data. In order to better understand the nature of these inter-individual variations, we analysed the long-term malaria epidemiology of children ≤12 years old growing up under seasonal exposure to the parasite in the sub-location of Junju, Kenya. Despite the cohort's limited geographic expanse (ca. 3km x 10km), our data reveal a high degree of spatial and temporal variability in malaria prevalence and incidence rates, causing individuals to experience varying levels of exposure to the parasite at different times during their life. Analysing individual-level infection histories further reveal an unexpectedly high variability in the rate at which children experience clinical malaria episodes. Besides exposure to the parasite, measured as disease prevalence in the surrounding area, we find that the birth time of year has an independent effect on the individual's risk of experiencing a clinical episode. Furthermore, our analyses reveal that those children with a history of an above average number of episodes are more likely to experience further episodes during the upcoming transmission season. These findings are indicative of phenotypic differences in the rates by which children acquire clinical protection to malaria and offer important insights into the natural variability underlying malaria epidemiology.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 variant 501Y.V2 in Comoros Islands in January 2021.

Background. Genomic data is key in understanding the spread and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and informing the design and evaluation of interventions. However, SARS-CoV-2 genomic data remains scarce across Africa, with no reports yet from the Indian Ocean islands. Methods. We genome sequenced six SARS-CoV-2 positive samples from the first major infection wave in the Union of Comoros in January 2021 and undertook detailed phylogenetic analysis. Results. All the recovered six genomes classified within the 501Y.V2 variant of concern (also known as lineage B.1.351) and appeared to be from 2 sub-clusters with the most recent common ancestor dated 30 th Oct-2020 (95% Credibility Interval: 06 th Sep-2020 to 10 th Dec-2020). Comparison of the Comoros genomes with those of 501Y.V2 variant of concern from other countries deposited into the GISAID database revealed their close association with viruses identified in France and Mayotte (part of the Comoros archipelago and a France, Overseas Department). Conclusions. The recovered genomes, albeit few, confirmed local transmission following probably multiple introductions of the SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variant of concern during the Comoros's first major COVID-19 wave. These findings demonstrate the importance of genomic surveillance and have implications for ongoing control strategies on the islands.

Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data.

Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.

Tracking the introduction and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in coastal Kenya.

Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 is important for understanding both the evolution and the patterns of local and global transmission. Here, we generated 311 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from samples collected in coastal Kenya between 17th March and 31st July 2020. We estimated multiple independent SARS-CoV-2 introductions into the region were primarily of European origin, although introductions could have come through neighbouring countries. Lineage B.1 accounted for 74% of sequenced cases. Lineages A, B and B.4 were detected in screened individuals at the Kenya-Tanzania border or returning travellers. Though multiple lineages were introduced into coastal Kenya following the initial confirmed case, none showed extensive local expansion other than lineage B.1. International points of entry were important conduits of SARS-CoV-2 importations into coastal Kenya and early public health responses prevented established transmission of some lineages. Undetected introductions through points of entry including imports from elsewhere in the country gave rise to the local epidemic at the Kenyan coast.