Shrinkage priors for isotonic probability vectors and binary data modeling, with applications to dose-response modeling.

Motivated by the need to model dose-response or dose-toxicity curves in clinical trials, we develop a new horseshoe-based prior for Bayesian isotonic regression modeling a binary outcome against an ordered categorical predictor, where the probability of the outcome is assumed to be monotonically non-decreasing with the predictor. The set of differences between outcome probabilities in consecutive categories of the predictor is equipped with a multivariate prior having support over simplex. The Dirichlet distribution, which can be derived from a normalized sum of independent gamma-distributed random variables, is a natural choice of prior, but using mathematical and simulation-based arguments, we show that the resulting posterior is prone to underflow and other numerical instabilities, even under simple data configurations. We propose an alternative prior based on horseshoe-type shrinkage that is numerically more stable. We show that this horseshoe-based prior is not subject to the numerical instability seen in the Dirichlet/gamma-based prior and that the horseshoe-based posterior can estimate the underlying true curve more efficiently than the Dirichlet-based one. We demonstrate the use of this prior in a model predicting the occurrence of radiation-induced lung toxicity in lung cancer patients as a function of dose delivered to normal lung tissue. Our methodology is implemented in the R package isotonicBayes and therefore suitable for use in the design of dose-finding studies or other dose-response modeling contexts.

Direct incorporation of patient-specific efficacy and toxicity estimates in radiation therapy plan optimization.

PURPOSE: Current radiation therapy (RT) treatment planning relies mainly on pre-defined dose-based objectives and constraints to develop plans that aim to control disease while limiting damage to normal tissues during treatment. These objectives and constraints are generally population-based, in that they are developed from the aggregate response of a broad patient population to radiation. However, correlations of new biologic markers and patient-specific factors to treatment efficacy and toxicity provide the opportunity to further stratify patient populations and develop a more individualized approach to RT planning. We introduce a novel intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) optimization strategy that directly incorporates patient-specific dose response models into the planning process. In this strategy, we integrate the concept of utility-based planning where the optimization objective is to maximize the predicted value of overall treatment utility, defined by the probability of efficacy (e.g., local control) minus the weighted sum of toxicity probabilities. To demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, we apply the strategy to treatment planning for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We developed a prioritized approach to patient-specific IMRT planning. Using a commercial treatment planning system (TPS), we calculate dose based on an influence matrix of beamlet-dose contributions to regions-of-interest. Then, outside of the TPS, we hierarchically solve two optimization problems to generate optimal beamlet weights that can then be imported back to the TPS. The first optimization problem maximizes a patient's overall plan utility subject to typical clinical dose constraints. In this process, we facilitate direct optimization of efficacy and toxicity trade-off based on individualized dose-response models. After optimal utility is determined, we solve a secondary optimization problem that minimizes a conventional dose-based objective subject to the same clinical dose constraints as the first stage but with the addition of a constraint to maintain the optimal utility from the first optimization solution. We tested this method by retrospectively generating plans for five previously treated NSCLC patients and comparing the prioritized utility plans to conventional plans optimized with only dose metric objectives. To define a plan utility function for each patient, we utilized previously published correlations of dose to local control and grade 3-5 toxicities that include patient age, stage, microRNA levels, and cytokine levels, among other clinical factors. RESULTS: The proposed optimization approach successfully generated RT plans for five NSCLC patients that improve overall plan utility based on personalized efficacy and toxicity models while accounting for clinical dose constraints. Prioritized utility plans demonstrated the largest average improvement in local control (16.6%) when compared to plans generated with conventional planning objectives. However, for some patients, the utility-based plans resulted in similar local control estimates with decreased estimated toxicity. CONCLUSION: The proposed optimization approach, where the maximization of a patient's RT plan utility is prioritized over the minimization of standardized dose metrics, has the potential to improve treatment outcomes by directly accounting for variability within a patient population. The implementation of the utility-based objective function offers an intuitive, humanized approach to biological optimization in which planning trade-offs are explicitly optimized.

Investigating the Incidence of Pulmonary Abnormalities as Identified by Parametric Response Mapping in Patients With Lung Cancer Before Radiation Treatment.

Purpose: Parametric response mapping (PRM) of high-resolution, paired inspiration and expiration computed tomography (CT) scans is a promising analytical imaging technique that is currently used in diagnostic applications and offers the ability to characterize and quantify certain pulmonary pathologies on a patient-specific basis. As one of the first studies to implement such a technique in the radiation oncology clinic, the goal of this work was to assess the feasibility for PRM analysis to identify pulmonary abnormalities in patients with lung cancer before radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials: High-resolution, paired inspiration and expiration CT scans were acquired from 23 patients with lung cancer as part of routine treatment planning CT acquisition. When applied to the paired CT scans, PRM analysis classifies lung parenchyma, on a voxel-wise basis, as normal, small airways disease (SAD), emphysema, or parenchymal disease (PD). PRM classifications were quantified as a percent of total lung volume and were evaluated globally and regionally within the lung. Results: PRM analysis of pre-RT CT scans was successfully implemented using a workflow that produced patient-specific maps and quantified specific phenotypes of pulmonary abnormalities. Through this study, a large prevalence of SAD and PD was demonstrated in this lung cancer patient population, with global averages of 10% and 17%, respectively. Moreover, PRM-classified normal and SAD in the region with primary tumor involvement were found to be significantly different from global lung values. When present, elevated levels of PD and SAD abnormalities tended to be pervasive in multiple regions of the lung, indicating a large burden of underlying disease. Conclusions: Pulmonary abnormalities, as detected by PRM, were characterized in patients with lung cancer scheduled for RT. Although further study is needed, PRM is a highly accessible CT-based imaging technique that has the potential to identify local lung abnormalities associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease. Further investigation in the radiation oncology setting may provide strategies for tailoring RT planning and risk assessment based on pre-existing PRM-based pathology.

Percutaneous delivery of self-propelling hemostatic powder for managing non-compressible abdominal hemorrhage: a proof-of-concept study in swine.

INTRODUCTION: Non-compressible intra-abdominal hemorrhage (NCIAH) is a major cause of preventable death on the battlefield and in civilian trauma. Currently, it can only be definitively managed with surgery, as there are limited strategies for controlling ongoing NCIAH in the prehospital environment. We hypothesized that a self-propelling thrombin-containing powder (SPTP) could increase survival in a swine model of NCIAH when delivered percutaneously into the closed abdomen using an engineered spray system. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nineteen swine underwent surgical laparotomy followed by a Grade V liver injury that created massive hemorrhage, before closing the abdomen with sutures. Animals either received treatment with standard of care fluid resuscitation (n=9) or the SPTP spray system (n=10), which consisted of a spray device and a 14 Fr catheter. Using the spray system, SPTP was delivered into a hemoperitoneum identified using a focused assessment with sonography in trauma (FAST) exam. Lactated Ringer's solution was administered to all animals to maintain a mean arterial pressure (MAP) of >50 mmHg. The primary outcome was percentage of animals surviving at three hours following injury. RESULTS: In the swine model of NCIAH, a greater percentage of animals receiving SPTP survived to three hours, although differences were not significant. The SPTP spray system increased the median survival of animals from 1.6 hr in the fluid resuscitation group to 4.3 hr. The SPTP spray system delivered a total mass of 18.5 ± 1.0 g of SPTP. The mean change in intra-abdominal pressure following SPTP delivery was 5.2 ± 1.8 mmHg (mean ± SEM). The intervention time was 6.7 ± 1.7 min. No adverse effects related to the SPTP formulation or the spray system were observed. SPTP was especially beneficial in animals that had either severely elevated lactate concentrations or low mean arterial pressure of <35 mmHg shortly after injury. CONCLUSIONS: This demonstrates proof-of-concept for use of a new minimally invasive procedure for managing NCIAH, which could extend survival time to enable patients to reach definitive surgical care.

Investigating the SPECT Dose-Function Metrics Associated With Radiation-Induced Lung Toxicity Risk in Patients With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Undergoing Radiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: Dose to normal lung has commonly been linked with radiation-induced lung toxicity (RILT) risk, but incorporating functional lung metrics in treatment planning may help further optimize dose delivery and reduce RILT incidence. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of the dose delivered to functional lung regions by analyzing perfusion (Q), ventilation (V), and combined V/Q single-photon-emission computed tomography (SPECT) dose-function metrics with regard to RILT risk in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who received radiation therapy (RT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: SPECT images acquired from 88 patients with locally advanced NSCLC before undergoing conventionally fractionated RT were retrospectively analyzed. Dose was converted to the nominal dose equivalent per 2 Gy fraction, and SPECT intensities were normalized. Regional lung segments were defined, and the average dose delivered to each lung region was quantified. Three functional categorizations were defined to represent low-, normal-, and high-functioning lungs. The percent of functional lung category receiving ≥20 Gy and mean functional intensity receiving ≥20 Gy (iV20) were calculated. RILT was defined as grade 2+ radiation pneumonitis and/or clinical radiation fibrosis. A logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between dose-function metrics and risk of RILT. RESULTS: By analyzing V/Q normalized intensities and functional distributions across the population, a wide range in functional capability (especially in the ipsilateral lung) was observed in patients with NSCLC before RT. Through multivariable regression models, global lung average dose to the lower lung was found to be significantly associated with RILT, and Q and V iV20 were correlated with RILT when using ipsilateral lung metrics. Through a receiver operating characteristic analysis, combined V/Q low-function receiving ≥20 Gy (low-functioning V/Q20) in the ipsilateral lung was found to be the best predictor (area under the curce: 0.79) of RILT risk. CONCLUSIONS: Irradiation of the inferior lung appears to be a locational sensitivity for RILT risk. The multivariable correlation between ipsilateral lung iV20 and RILT, as well as the association of low-functioning V/Q20 and RILT, suggest that irradiating low-functioning regions in the lung may lead to higher toxicity rates.

Insulin-like growth factor 2 mRNA binding protein 3 (IGF2BP3) overexpression in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma correlates with poor survival.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is a lethal disease with a 5-year survival rate of 4% and typically presents in an advanced stage. In this setting, prognostic markers identifying the more aggressive tumors could aid in management decisions. Insulin-like growth factor 2 mRNA binding protein 3 (IGF2BP3, also known as IMP3 or KOC) is an oncofetal RNA-binding protein that regulates targets such as insulin-like growth factor-2 (IGF-2) and ACTB (beta-actin). METHODS: We evaluated the expression of IGF2BP3 by immunohistochemistry using a tissue microarray of 127 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas with tumor grade 1, 2 and 3 according to WHO criteria, and the prognostic value of IGF2BP3 expression. RESULTS: IGF2BP3 was found to be selectively overexpressed in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma tissues but not in benign pancreatic tissues. Nine (38%) patient samples of tumor grade 1 (n = 24) and 27 (44%) of tumor grade 2 (n = 61) showed expression of IGF2BP3. The highest rate of expression was seen in poorly differentiated specimen (grade 3, n = 42) with 26 (62%) positive samples. Overall survival was found to be significantly shorter in patients with IGF2BP3 expressing tumors (P = 0.024; RR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.8). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that IGF2BP3 overexpression identifies a subset of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas with an extremely poor outcome and supports the rationale for developing therapies to target the IGF pathway in this cancer.

Celiac Disease and Other Causes of Duodenitis.

CONTEXT: - Patients who receive an upper gastrointestinal endoscopic examination frequently have biopsies taken from the duodenum. Accurate interpretation of duodenal biopsies is essential for patient care. Celiac disease is a common clinical concern, but pathologists need to be aware of other conditions of the duodenum that mimic celiac disease. OBJECTIVE: - To review the normal histologic features of duodenal mucosa and describe the clinical and histologic findings in celiac disease and its mimics, listing the differentiating features of biopsies with villous atrophy and epithelial lymphocytosis. DATA SOURCES: - The study comprises a literature review of pertinent publications as of November 30, 2016. CONCLUSIONS: - Celiac disease is a common cause of abnormal duodenal histology. However, many of the histologic features found in the duodenal biopsy of patients with celiac disease are also present in other conditions that affect the small bowel. Diagnostic precision may be enhanced by obtaining a careful patient history and by ancillary laboratory testing, particularly for the presence of antitissue transglutaminase antibodies.

Acute Hospital Encounters in Cancer Patients Treated With Definitive Radiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: Acute hospital encounters in patients undergoing curative-intent radiation therapy (RT) have not previously been well characterized. Understanding acute visit patterns among RT patients yields insights for risk assessments and cancer urgent care clinics that could decrease hospitalization rates and reduce health care costs. This study aims to identify patient, disease-site, and treatment characteristics associated with emergency department visits and inpatient admissions in cancer patients treated with definitive RT. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data from a quaternary-care cancer center. The cohort was defined as all consecutive patients aged ≥ 18 years who began RT between July 1, 2011, and December 31, 2013; were without metastases; and were treated with curative intent. An acute encounter was defined as an emergency department visit or inpatient admission during RT or within 30 days after the conclusion of RT. RESULTS: Among 1852 unique RT courses, 666 RT courses (36.0%) involved at least 1 acute encounter, and a total of 1418 acute encounters were identified. RT courses with at least 1 acute encounter corresponded to patients more likely to be on their second (odds ratio [OR], 1.96; P < .001) or third (OR, 3.82; P < .05) RT course and undergoing concurrent chemotherapy (OR, 6.38; P < .001). Among the RT courses with at least 1 acute encounter, the most common disease site was thoracic (22.8%), followed by head and/or neck (22.2%) and gastrointestinal (18.3%). Central nervous system tumors had the greatest proportion of RT courses with acute encounters (77.1%). CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective analysis, more than one-third of curative-intent RT courses were associated with at least 1 acute hospital encounter during or shortly after irradiation. Given that acute encounters varied by patient, disease-site, and treatment characteristics, these findings can inform targeted preventive measures to reduce cancer-related acute hospital encounters and guide improved management protocols.

Molecular characterization of ERBB2-amplified colorectal cancer identifies potential mechanisms of resistance to targeted therapies: a report of two instructive cases.

ERBB2 amplification has been identified in ∼5% of KRAS wild-type colorectal cancers (CRCs). A recent clinical trial showed response to HER2-directed therapy in a subset of ERBB2-amplified metastatic CRCs resistant to chemotherapy and EGFR-directed therapy. With the aim of better understanding mechanisms of resistance to HER2-directed and EGFR-directed therapies, we report the complete molecular characterization of two cases of ERBB2-amplified CRC. PCR-free whole-genome sequencing was used to identify mutations, copy-number alterations, structural variations, and losses of heterozygosity. ERBB2 copy number was also measured by fluorescence in situ hybridization. Single-stranded mRNA sequencing was used for gene expression profiling. Immunohistochemistry and protein mass spectrometry were used to quantify HER2 protein expression. The cases showed ERBB2 copy number of 86 and 92, respectively. Both cases were immunohistochemically positive for HER2 according to CRC-specific scoring criteria. Fluorescence in situ hybridization and protein mass spectrometry corroborated significantly elevated ERBB2 copy number and abundance of HER2 protein. Both cases were microsatellite stable and without mutation of RAS pathway genes. Additional findings included altered expression of PTEN, MET, and MUC1 and mutation of PIK3CA The potential effects of the molecular alterations on sensitivity to EGFR and HER2-directed therapies were discussed. Identification of ERBB2 amplification in CRC is necessary to select patients who may respond to HER2-directed therapy. An improved understanding of the molecular characteristics of ERBB2-amplified CRCs and their potential mechanisms of resistance will be useful for future research into targeted therapies and may eventually inform therapeutic decision-making.