Pressure from insect-resistant maize on protected butterflies and moths.

Intensification in agriculture affects many insect species, including butterflies. Insect-resistant crops, such as Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) maize, which produces a toxin active against Lepidoptera, are an alternative to insecticide sprays. Genetically modified crops are regulated in most countries and require an environmental risk assessment. In the European Union, such assessments include the use of simulation models to predict the effects on nontarget Lepidoptera (NTL). To support the assessment of protected NTL, we extended an individual-based, stochastic, spatially explicit mathematical model (LepiX) to include a wider range of exposure scenarios, a species-sensitivity distribution, and an option for repeated exposure of individuals. We applied the model to transgenic maize DAS-1507, which expresses a high concentration of Bt toxin in pollen that may be consumed by NTL larvae on their host plants nearby. Even in the most conservative scenario without repeated exposure, mortality estimates for highly sensitive species ranged from 41% to 6% at distances of 10-1000 m from the nearest maize field. Repeated exposure can cause additional mortality and thus is relevant for the overall risk assessment. Uncertainties in both exposure and ecotoxicity estimates strongly influenced the predicted mortalities. Care should be taken to include these uncertainties in the model scenarios used for decision-making. In accordance with other modeling results, our simulations demonstrated that mean mortality may not be safe for protected species. With its high pollen expression, DAS-1507 maize may pose risks to sensitive and protected butterfly and moth species that may be difficult to manage. High expression of Bt toxin in pollen is unnecessary for controlling target pests. Consequently, we suggest that Bt maize with high pollen expression not be cultivated in regions where protected butterflies are to be conserved.

La intensificación en la agricultura afecta a muchas especies de insectos, incluyendo a las mariposas. Los cultivos resistentes a los insectos, como el maíz Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis), el cual produce una toxina activa contra los lepidópteros, son una alternativa a los insecticidas. Los cultivos genéticamente modificados (GM) están regulados en la mayoría de los países y requieren de una evaluación de riesgo ambiental. En la Unión Europea (EU), dichas evaluaciones incluyen el uso de modelos de simulación para pronosticar los efectos sobre los lepidópteros no objetivo (LNO). Para apoyar a la evaluación de LNO protegidos, extendimos un modelo matemático espacialmente explícito, estocástico y basado en el individuo (LepiX) para incluir una mayor gama de escenarios de exposición, una distribución de la sensibilidad de las especies y una opción para la exposición repetida de los individuos. Aplicamos el modelo al maíz transgénico DAS­1507, el cual expresa una alta concentración de toxina Bt en el polen que puede ser consumido por las larvas de LNO en una planta hospedera cercana. Incluso en el escenario más conservador sin una exposición repetida, las estimaciones de mortalidad para las especies altamente sensibles variaron entre el 41% y el 6% en distancias de 10­1000 m a partir del campo de maíz más cercano. La exposición repetida puede causar mortalidad adicional y por lo tanto es relevante para la evaluación general del riesgo. La incertidumbre en las estimaciones de la exposición y la ecotoxicidad influyeron fuertemente sobre la mortalidad pronosticada. Se debe tener cuidado de incluir estas incertidumbres en los escenarios modelados usados para la toma de decisiones. De acuerdo con los resultados de otros modelos, nuestras simulaciones demostraron que la mortalidad media podría no ser segura para las especies protegidas. Con su alta producción de polen, el maíz DAS­1507 podría representar un riesgo difícil de manejar para las especies de mariposas y polillas sensibles y protegidas. No se necesita una expresión elevada de la toxina Bt en el polen para controlar a las plagas. En consecuencia, sugerimos que no se cultive el maíz Bt con una alta producción de polen en las regiones en donde se busca conservar a las mariposas protegidas. Presión del maíz resistente a insectos sobre mariposas y polillas protegidas.

Quantifying the impacts of land cover change on gross primary productivity globally.

Historically, humans have cleared many forests for agriculture. While this substantially reduced ecosystem carbon storage, the impacts of these land cover changes on terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) have not been adequately resolved yet. Here, we combine high-resolution datasets of satellite-derived GPP and environmental predictor variables to estimate the potential GPP of forests, grasslands, and croplands around the globe. With a mean GPP of 2.0 kg C m-2 yr-1 forests represent the most productive land cover on two thirds of the total area suitable for any of these land cover types, while grasslands and croplands on average reach 1.5 and 1.8 kg C m-2 yr-1, respectively. Combining our potential GPP maps with a historical land-use reconstruction indicates a 4.4% reduction in global GPP from agricultural expansion. This land-use-induced GPP reduction is amplified in some future scenarios as a result of ongoing deforestation (e.g., the large-scale bioenergy scenario SSP4-3.4) but partly reversed in other scenarios (e.g., the sustainability scenario SSP1-1.9) due to agricultural abandonment. Comparing our results to simulations from state-of-the-art Earth System Models, we find that all investigated models deviate substantially from our estimates and from each other. Our maps could be used as a benchmark to reduce this inconsistency, thereby improving projections of land-based climate mitigation potentials.

A Dynamic Model for Strategies and Dynamics of Plant Water-Potential Regulation Under Drought Conditions.

Vegetation responds to drought through a complex interplay of plant hydraulic mechanisms, posing challenges for model development and parameterization. We present a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of leaf water-potential over time while considering different strategies by which plant species regulate their water-potentials. The model has two parameters: the parameter λ describing the adjustment of the leaf water potential to changes in soil water potential, and the parameter Δψww describing the typical 'well-watered' leaf water potentials at non-stressed (near-zero) levels of soil water potential. Our model was tested and calibrated on 110 time-series datasets containing the leaf- and soil water potentials of 66 species under drought and non-drought conditions. Our model successfully reproduces the measured leaf water potentials over time based on three different regulation strategies under drought. We found that three parameter sets derived from the measurement data reproduced the dynamics of 53% of an drought dataset, and 52% of a control dataset [root mean square error (RMSE) < 0.5 MPa)]. We conclude that, instead of quantifying water-potential-regulation of different plant species by complex modeling approaches, a small set of parameters may be sufficient to describe the water potential regulation behavior for large-scale modeling. Thus, our approach paves the way for a parsimonious representation of the full spectrum of plant hydraulic responses to drought in dynamic vegetation models.

European mushroom assemblages are darker in cold climates.

Thermal melanism theory states that dark-colored ectotherm organisms are at an advantage at low temperature due to increased warming. This theory is generally supported for ectotherm animals, however, the function of colors in the fungal kingdom is largely unknown. Here, we test whether the color lightness of mushroom assemblages is related to climate using a dataset of 3.2 million observations of 3,054 species across Europe. Consistent with the thermal melanism theory, mushroom assemblages are significantly darker in areas with cold climates. We further show differences in color phenotype between fungal lifestyles and a lifestyle differentiated response to seasonality. These results indicate a more complex ecological role of mushroom colors and suggest functions beyond thermal adaption. Because fungi play a crucial role in terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycles, understanding the links between the thermal environment, functional coloration and species' geographical distributions will be critical in predicting ecosystem responses to global warming.