Drug-related deaths in Scotland 1979-2013: evidence of a vulnerable cohort of young men living in deprived areas.

BACKGROUND: Even after accounting for deprivation, mortality rates are higher in Scotland relative to the rest of Western Europe. Higher mortality from alcohol- and drug-related deaths (DRDs), violence and suicide (particularly in young adults) contribute to this 'excess' mortality. Age-period and cohort effects help explain the trends in alcohol-related deaths and suicide, respectively. This study investigated whether age, period or cohort effects might explain recent trends in DRDs in Scotland and relate to exposure to the changing political context from the 1980s. METHODS: We analysed data on DRDs from 1979 to 2013 by sex and deprivation using shaded contour plots and intrinsic estimator regression modelling to identify and quantify relative age, period and cohort effects. RESULTS: The peak age for DRDs fell around 1990, especially for males as rates increased for those aged 18 to 45 years. There was evidence of a cohort effect, especially among males living in the most deprived areas; those born between 1960 and 1980 had an increased risk of DRD, highest for those born 1970 to 1975. The cohort effect started around a decade earlier in the most deprived areas compared to the rest of the population. CONCLUSION: Age-standardised rates for DRDs among young adults rose during the 1990s in Scotland due to an increased risk of DRD for the cohort born between 1960 and 1980, especially for males living in the most deprived areas. This cohort effect is consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to the changing social, economic and political contexts of the 1980s created a delayed negative health impact.

What is the potential for plural ownership to support a more inclusive economy? A systematic review protocol.

BACKGROUND: The world is facing an unprecedented systemic shock to population health, the economy and society due to the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. As with most economic shocks, this is expected to disproportionately impact vulnerable groups in society such as those in poverty and those in precarious employment as well as marginalised groups such as women, the elderly, Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups and those with health conditions. The current literature is rich in normative recommendations on plural ownership as a key building block of an inclusive economy rooted in communities and their needs. There is, however, a need for a rigorous synthesis of the available evidence on what impact (if any) plural ownership may potentially have on the inclusivity of the economy. This review seeks to synthesise and compare the available evidence across the three economic sectors (private, public and third). METHODS: We will search eight bibliographic databases (Sociological abstracts, EBSCO Econlit, OVID Embase, OVID Medline, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA), ProQuest Public Health, Web of Science, Research Papers in Economics (Repec) - EconPapers) from the earliest data available in each database until January 2021. Grey literature will be identified from Google (advanced), Google Scholar and 37 organisational websites identified as relevant to the research question. We will include comparative studies of plural ownership from high-income countries that report outcomes on access to opportunities, distribution of benefits, poverty, and discrimination. A bespoke search strategy will be used for each website to account for the heterogeneity in content and search capabilities and will be fully documented. A standardised data extraction template based on the Population-Intervention-Context-Outcome (PICO) template will be developed. We will assess the strength of evidence for different forms of economic ownership identified in relation to the impact of each on the four economic outcomes of interest, paying particular attention to the role of wider contextual factors as they emerge through the evidence. DISCUSSION: The findings of this review are intended to inform policymaking at local, national and international level that prioritises and supports the development of different economic and business models. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Open Science Framework registration DOI: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/BYH5A.

Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS): validated for teenage school students in England and Scotland. A mixed methods assessment.

BACKGROUND: Understanding and measuring mental health and wellbeing amongst teenagers has recently become a priority. The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS) is validated for measuring mental wellbeing in populations aged 16 years and over in the UK. We report here a study designed to establish the validity and reliability of WEMWBS in teenagers in the UK. METHODS: WEMWBS and comparator scales, together with socio-demographic information and self-reported health, were incorporated into a self-administered questionnaire given to pupils aged 13 to 16 years in six schools in Scotland and England. Psychometric properties including internal consistency, correlations with comparator scales, test-retest stability and unidimensionality were investigated for WEMWBS. Twelve focus groups were undertaken to assess acceptability and comprehensibility of WEMWBS and were taped, transcribed and analysed thematically. RESULTS: A total of 1,650 teenagers completed the questionnaire (response rate 80.8%). Mean WEMWBS score was 48.8 (SD 6.8; median 49). Response scores covered the full range (from 14 to 70). WEMWBS demonstrated strong internal consistency and a high Cronbach's alpha of 0.87 (95% CI (0.85-0.88), n = 1517). Measures of construct validity gave values as predicted. The correlation coefficient for WEMWBS total score and psychological wellbeing domain of the Kidscreen-27 was 0.59 (95% CI [0.55; 0.62]); for the Mental Health Continuum Short Form (MHC-SF) was 0.65, 95% CI [0.62; 0.69]; and for the WHO (WHO-5) Well-being Index 0.57 (95% CI [0.53; 0.61]). The correlation coefficient for the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) was -0.44 (95% CI [-0.49; -0.40]) and for the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ12) -0.45 (95% CI [-0.49; -0.40]). Test-retest reliability was acceptable (Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) 0.66 (95% CI [0.59; 0.72] n = 212)). Confirmatory factor analysis demonstrated one underlying factor. WEMWBS was significantly associated with the Family Affluence Score (WEMWBS increased with increasing household socio-economic status) and had a positive association with the physical health dimension of the Kidscreen-27, but was unrelated to age, gender or location/school. Eighty students took part in focus groups. In general, although some students considered some items open to misunderstanding or misinterpretation, WEMWBS was received positively and was considered comprehensible, and acceptable. CONCLUSIONS: WEMWBS is a psychometrically strong population measure of mental wellbeing, and can be used for this purpose in teenagers aged 13 and over.

Deaths from 'diseases of despair' in Britain: comparing suicide, alcohol-related and drug-related mortality for birth cohorts in Scotland, England and Wales, and selected cities.

BACKGROUND: The contribution of increasing numbers of deaths from suicide, alcohol-related and drug-related causes to changes in overall mortality rates has been highlighted in various countries. In Scotland, particular vulnerable cohorts have been shown to be most at risk; however, it is unclear to what extent this applies elsewhere in Britain. The aim here was to compare mortality rates for different birth cohorts between Scotland and England and Wales (E&W), including key cities. METHODS: Mortality and population data (1981-2017) for Scotland, E&W and 10 cities were obtained from national statistical agencies. Ten-year birth cohorts and cohort-specific mortality rates (by age of death, sex, cause) were derived and compared between countries and cities. RESULTS: Similarities were observed between countries and cities in terms of peak ages of death, and the cohorts with the highest death rates. However, cohort-specific rates were notably higher in Scotland, particularly for alcohol-related and drug-related deaths. Across countries and cities, those born in 1965-1974 and 1975-1984 had the highest drug-related mortality rates (peak age at death: 30-34 years); the 1965-1974 birth cohort also had the highest male suicide rate (peak age: 40-44 years). For alcohol-related causes, the highest rates were among earlier cohorts (1935-1944, 1945-1954, 1955-1964)-peak age 60-64 years. CONCLUSIONS: The overall similarities suggest common underlying influences across Britain; however, their effects have been greatest in Scotland, confirming greater vulnerability among that population. In addressing the socioeconomic drivers of deaths from these causes, the cohorts identified here as being at greatest risk require particular attention.

Analysis of age-sex and deprivation stratified trends in assault deaths in Scotland (1974-2015) to identify age, period or cohort effects.

OBJECTIVES: Mortality rates in Scotland are higher, and health inequalities are greater, than in the rest of Western and Central Europe. There was a marked divergence during the 1980s and 1990s in the Scottish rates partly due to rises in alcohol-related and drug-related deaths, suicide and deaths by assault. This study examines whether age, period or cohort effects account for the trends in death by assault in Scotland and any sex or deprivation inequalities in these. DESIGN: We calculated crude and age-standardised mortality rates for deaths by assault for Scottish men and women from 1974 to 2015 for the population overall and for populations stratified by Carstairs area of deprivation. We examined age-sex stratified trends to identify obvious age-period-cohort effects. SETTING: This study was conducted in Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: Men and women whose registered death by the International Classification of Diseases was due to assault from 1974 to 2015 (n=3936) were included in this study. RESULTS: Whereas age-standardised mortality rates from this cause fell gradually for women since 1974, for men they increased in the early 1990s and remained higher until around 2006, before falling. Death by assault was substantially more common among men aged around 15-50 years and in the most deprived areas. There was little change in the age groups most impacted over time, which made cohort effects unlikely. A period effect for the 15 years until 2006, with a consistent age-sex-area deprivation patterning, was evident. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality due to assault in Scotland is unequally felt, with young men living in the most deprived areas suffering the highest rates. There is a 15-year period effect up until 2006, impacting on young men as an age-period interaction, with no obvious cohort effects. Exploration of the demographics of criminological data may identify age, period or cohort effects among perpetrators of assault.

Do age, period or cohort effects explain circulatory disease mortality trends, Scotland 1974-2015?

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to explore whether age, period or cohort effects explain the trends and inequalities in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) mortality in Scotland. METHODS: We analysed IHD and CeVD deaths for 1974-2015 by sex, age and area deprivation, visually explored the data using heatmaps and dotplots and built regression models. RESULTS: CeVD mortality improved steadily over time while IHD mortality improved more rapidly from the late 1980s. Age effects were evident; both outcomes showed an exponential relationship with age for all except males for IHD in the 1980s and 1990s. The mortality profiles by age became older, although improvement was slower for those aged <50 years for IHD, especially for males, and faster for CeVD in females aged <65 years. Rates were higher, and inequalities greater, among males, especially for IHD. For IHD, increased risk for males over females reduced with age (incidence rate ratio for 41-50 year old males=4.28 (95% CI 4.12 to 4.44) and 1.17 (95% CI 1.16 to 1.18) for 71-80 year olds). Inequalities in IHD mortality by area deprivation persisted over time, increasing from around 10% to around 25% higher risk in the most deprived areas between 1974 and 1986 before declining in absolute terms from around 2000. Inequalities for CeVD increased after the late 1980s. CONCLUSIONS: IHD and CeVD mortality in Scotland exhibit age but not recent distinct period or cohort effects. The improvements in mortality rates have been more sustained for CeVD and inequalities greater for IHD.

Changing mortality trends in countries and cities of the UK: a population-based trend analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Previously improving life expectancy and all-cause mortality in the UK has stalled since the early 2010s. National analyses have demonstrated changes in mortality rates for most age groups and causes of death, and with deprived populations most affected. The aims here were to establish whether similar changes have occurred across different parts of the UK (countries, cities), and to examine cause-specific trends in more detail. DESIGN: Population-based trend analysis. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: Whole populations of countries and selected cities of the UK. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: European age-standardised mortality rates (calculated by cause of death, country, city, year (1981-2017), age group, sex and-for all countries and Scottish cities-deprivation quintiles); changes in rates between 5-year periods; summary measures of both relative (relative index of inequality) and absolute (slope index of inequality) inequalities. RESULTS: Changes in mortality from around 2011/2013 were observed throughout the UK for all adult age groups. For example, all-age female rates decreased by approximately 4%-6% during the 1980s and 1990s, approximately 7%-9% during the 2000s, but by <1% between 2011/2013 and 2015/2017. Equivalent figures for men were 4%-7%, 8%-12% and 1%-3%, respectively. This later period saw increased mortality among the most deprived populations, something observed in all countries and cities analysed, and for most causes of death: absolute and relative inequalities therefore increased. Although similar trends were seen across all parts of the UK, particular issues apply in Scotland, for example, higher and increasing drug-related mortality (with the highest rates observed in Dundee and Glasgow). CONCLUSIONS: The study presents further evidence of changing mortality in the UK. The timing, geography and socioeconomic gradients associated with the changes appear to support suggestions that they may result, at least in part, from UK Government 'austerity' measures which have disproportionately affected the poorest.

The effect of income-based policies on mortality inequalities in Scotland: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The unequal distribution of income is a fundamental determinant of health inequalities. Decision making around economic policies could be enhanced by showing their potential health effects. We used scenario modelling to assess the effects of 12 income-based policies on years of life lost (YLL) and inequalities in YLL in Scotland for the 2017-21 period. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used EUROMOD version H1.0+, a tax-benefit microsimulation model, to estimate the effects of hypothetical fiscal policies on household income for Scottish households in the 2014/15 Family Resources Survey (n=2871). The effects were modelled excluding housing costs. Income change from baseline was estimated for each quintile of the 2016 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) after weighting to account for differential non-response to the Family Resources Survey, and incomes were equivalised according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's modified equivalence scale. A regression analysis of cross-sectional data was used to estimate the relationship between income change and all-cause mortality, followed up by a sensitivity analysis to account for uncertainties around the assumptions on effect size. Informing Interventions to reduce health Inequalities (Triple I), a health inequalities scenario modelling tool, was used to estimate policy effects on YLL and government spending after five years of theoretical implementation. The Triple I model used population estimates for 2016 stratified by sex, 5-year age group, and SIMD quintile, which were obtained from the National Records of Scotland. Preliminary estimates of relative policy costs were calculated from the EUROMOD-derived combined effects of each policy on tax bills, National Insurance contributions, and benefits receipts for Scottish households. FINDINGS: Taxation-based policies did not substantially affect household incomes, whereas benefits-based policies had large effects across the quintiles. The best policy for improving health and narrowing health inequalities was a 50% increase to means-tested benefits (approximately 105 177 [4·7%] YLL fewer than the baseline of 2·2 million, and a 7·9% reduction in relative index of inequality). Effects on YLL and health inequalities were inversely correlated in response to changes in taxation policy. Citizen's Basic Income (CBI) schemes also substantially narrowed inequalities (3·7% relative index of inequality for basic scheme, 5·9% for CBI with additional payments for individuals with disability), and modestly reduced YLL (0·7% for the basic scheme and 1·4% with additional payments). The estimated government spending associated with a policy was proportional to its effect on YLL, but less closely related to its effect on inequalities in YLL. INTERPRETATION: Policies that affect incomes could potentially have marked effects on health and health inequalities in Scotland. Our projections suggest that the most effective policies for reducing health inequalities appeared to be those that disproportionately increased incomes in the most deprived areas. Although modelling was subject to various assumptions, the approach can be useful to inform decisions around addressing the upstream determinants of health inequalities. FUNDING: None.

Internal construct validity of the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS): a Rasch analysis using data from the Scottish Health Education Population Survey.

BACKGROUND: The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale (WEMWBS) was developed to meet demand for instruments to measure mental well-being. It comprises 14 positively phrased Likert-style items and fulfils classic criteria for scale development. We report here the internal construct validity of WEMWBS from the perspective of the Rasch measurement model. METHODS: The model was applied to data collected from 779 respondents in Wave 12 (Autumn 2006) of the Scottish Health Education Population Survey. Respondents were aged 16-74 (average 41.9) yrs. RESULTS: Initial fit to model expectations was poor. The items 'I've been feeling good about myself', 'I've been interested in new things' and 'I've been feeling cheerful' all showed significant misfit to model expectations, and were deleted. This led to a marginal improvement in fit to the model. After further analysis, more items were deleted and a strict unidimensional seven item scale (the Short Warwick Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale (SWEMWBS)) was resolved. Many items deleted because of misfit with model expectations showed considerable bias for gender. Two retained items also demonstrated bias for gender but, at the scale level, cancelled out. One further retained item 'I've been feeling optimistic about the future' showed bias for age. The correlation between the 14 item and 7 item versions was 0.954.Given fit to the Rasch model, and strict unidimensionality, SWEMWBS provides an interval scale estimate of mental well-being. CONCLUSION: A short 7 item version of WEMWBS was found to satisfy the strict unidimensionality expectations of the Rasch model, and be largely free of bias. This scale, SWEMWBS, provides a raw score-interval scale transformation for use in parametric procedures. In terms of face validity, SWEMWBS presents a more restricted view of mental well-being than the 14 item WEMWBS, with most items representing aspects of psychological and eudemonic well-being, and few covering hedonic well-being or affect. However, robust measurement properties combined with brevity make SWEMWBS preferable to WEMWBS at present for monitoring mental well-being in populations. Where face validity is an issue there remain arguments for continuing to collect data on the full 14 item WEMWBS.

The Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (WEMWBS): development and UK validation.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing international interest in the concept of mental well-being and its contribution to all aspects of human life. Demand for instruments to monitor mental well-being at a population level and evaluate mental health promotion initiatives is growing. This article describes the development and validation of a new scale, comprised only of positively worded items relating to different aspects of positive mental health: the Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-Being Scale (WEMWBS). METHODS: WEMWBS was developed by an expert panel drawing on current academic literature, qualitative research with focus groups, and psychometric testing of an existing scale. It was validated on a student and representative population sample. Content validity was assessed by reviewing the frequency of complete responses and the distribution of responses to each item. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to test the hypothesis that the scale measured a single construct. Internal consistency was assessed using Cronbach's alpha. Criterion validity was explored in terms of correlations between WEMWBS and other scales and by testing whether the scale discriminated between population groups in line with pre-specified hypotheses. Test-retest reliability was assessed at one week using intra-class correlation coefficients. Susceptibility to bias was measured using the Balanced Inventory of Desired Responding. RESULTS: WEMWBS showed good content validity. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the single factor hypothesis. A Cronbach's alpha score of 0.89 (student sample) and 0.91 (population sample) suggests some item redundancy in the scale. WEMWBS showed high correlations with other mental health and well-being scales and lower correlations with scales measuring overall health. Its distribution was near normal and the scale did not show ceiling effects in a population sample. It discriminated between population groups in a way that is largely consistent with the results of other population surveys. Test-retest reliability at one week was high (0.83). Social desirability bias was lower or similar to that of other comparable scales. CONCLUSION: WEMWBS is a measure of mental well-being focusing entirely on positive aspects of mental health. As a short and psychometrically robust scale, with no ceiling effects in a population sample, it offers promise as a tool for monitoring mental well-being at a population level. Whilst WEMWBS should appeal to those evaluating mental health promotion initiatives, it is important that the scale's sensitivity to change is established before it is recommended in this context.

Recent cohort effects in suicide in Scotland: a legacy of the 1980s?

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates are higher in Scotland relative to England and Wales, even after accounting for deprivation. This 'excess' mortality is partly due to higher mortality from alcohol-related and drug-related deaths, violence and suicide (particularly in young adults). This study investigated whether cohort effects from exposure to neoliberal politics from the 1980s might explain the recent trends in suicide in Scotland. METHODS: We analysed suicide deaths data from 1974 to 2013 by sex and deprivation using shaded contour plots and intrinsic estimator regression modelling to identify and quantify relative age, period and cohort effects. RESULTS: Suicide was most common in young adults (aged around 25-40 years) living in deprived areas, with a younger peak in men. The peak age for suicide fell around 1990, especially for men for whom it dropped quickly from around 50 to 30 years. There was evidence of an increased risk of suicide for the cohort born between 1960 and 1980, especially among men living in the most deprived areas (of around 30%). The cohort at highest risk occurred earlier in the most deprived areas, 1965-1969 compared with 1970-1974. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of suicide increased in Scotland for those born between 1960 and 1980, especially for men living in the most deprived areas, which resulted in a rise in age-standardised rates for suicide among young adults during the 1990s. This is consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to neoliberal politics created a delayed negative health impact.

A RING finger ubiquitin ligase is protected from autocatalyzed ubiquitination and degradation by binding to ubiquitin-specific protease USP7.

Herpes simplex virus type 1 immediate-early regulatory protein ICP0 stimulates lytic infection and reactivation from latency, processes that require the ubiquitin E3 ligase activity mediated by the RING finger domain in the N-terminal portion of the protein. ICP0 stimulates the production of polyubiquitin chains by the ubiquitin-conjugating enzymes UbcH5a and UbcH6 in vitro, and in infected and transfected cells it induces the proteasome-dependent degradation of a number of cellular proteins including PML, the major constituent protein of PML nuclear bodies. However, ICP0 binds strongly to the cellular ubiquitin-specific protease USP7, a member of a family of proteins that cleave polyubiquitin chains and/or ubiquitin precursors. The region of ICP0 that is required for its interaction with USP7 has been mapped, and mutations in this domain reduce the functionality of ICP0. These findings pose the question: why does ICP0 include domains that are associated with the potentially antagonistic functions of ubiquitin conjugation and deconjugation? Here we report that although neither protein affected the intrinsic activities of the other in vitro, USP7 protected ICP0 from autoubiquitination in vitro, and their interaction can greatly increase the stability of ICP0 in vivo. These results demonstrate that RING finger-mediated autoubiquitination of ICP0 is biologically relevant and can be regulated by interaction with USP7. This principle may extend to a number of cellular RING finger E3 ubiquitin ligase proteins that have analogous interactions with ubiquitin-specific cleavage enzymes.