Towards a unified study of multiple stressors: divisions and common goals across research disciplines.

Anthropogenic environmental changes, or 'stressors', increasingly threaten biodiversity and ecosystem functioning worldwide. Multiple-stressor research is a rapidly expanding field of science that seeks to understand and ultimately predict the interactions between stressors. Reviews and meta-analyses of the primary scientific literature have largely been specific to either freshwater, marine or terrestrial ecology, or ecotoxicology. In this cross-disciplinary study, we review the state of knowledge within and among these disciplines to highlight commonality and division in multiple-stressor research. Our review goes beyond a description of previous research by using quantitative bibliometric analysis to identify the division between disciplines and link previously disconnected research communities. Towards a unified research framework, we discuss the shared goal of increased realism through both ecological and temporal complexity, with the overarching aim of improving predictive power. In a rapidly changing world, advancing our understanding of the cumulative ecological impacts of multiple stressors is critical for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management. Identifying and overcoming the barriers to interdisciplinary knowledge exchange is necessary in rising to this challenge. Division between ecosystem types and disciplines is largely a human creation. Species and stressors cross these borders and so should the scientists who study them.

Warming can enhance invasion success through asymmetries in energetic performance.

Both climate warming and biological invasions are prominent drivers of global environmental change and it is important to determine how they interact. However, beyond tolerance and reproductive thresholds, little is known about temperature dependence of invaders' performance, particularly in the light of competitive attributes of functionally similar native species. We used experimentally derived energy budgets and field temperature data to determine whether anticipated warming will asymmetrically affect the energy budgets of the globally invasive Ponto-Caspian mysid crustacean Hemimysis anomala and a functionally similar native competitor (Mysis salemaai) whose range is currently being invaded. In contrast to M. salemaai, which maintains a constant feeding rate with temperature leading to diminishing energy assimilation, we found that H. anomala increases its feeding rate with temperature in parallel with growing metabolic demand. This enabled the invader to maintain high energy assimilation rates, conferring substantially higher scope for growth compared to the native analogue at spring-to-autumn temperatures. Anticipated warming will likely exacerbate this energetic asymmetry and remove the winter overlap, which, given the seasonal limitation of mutually preferred prey, appears to underpin coexistence of the two species. These results indicate that temperature-dependent asymmetries in scope for growth between invaders and native analogues comprise an important mechanism determining invasion success under warming climates. They also highlight the importance of considering relevant spectra of ecological contexts in predicting successful invaders and their impacts under warming scenarios.

Using weighted expert judgement and nonlinear data analysis to improve Bayesian belief network models for riverine ecosystem services.

Rivers are a key part of the hydrological cycle and a vital conduit of water resources, but are under increasing threat from anthropogenic pressures. Linking pressures with ecosystem services is challenging because the processes interconnecting the physico-chemical, biological and socio-economic elements are usually captured using heterogenous methods. Our objectives were, firstly, to advance an existing proof-of-principle Bayesian belief network (BBN) model for integration of ecosystem services considerations into river management. We causally linked catchment stressors with ecosystem services using weighted evidence from an expert workshop (capturing confidence among expert groups), legislation and published literature. The BBN was calibrated with analyses of national monitoring data (including non-linear relationships and ecologically meaningful breakpoints) and expert judgement. We used a novel expected index of desirability to quantify the model outputs. Secondly, we applied the BBN to three case study catchments in Ireland to demonstrate the implications of changes in stressor levels for ecosystem services in different settings. Four out of the seven significant relationships in data analyses were non-linear, highlighting that non-linearity is common in ecosystems, but rarely considered in environmental modelling. Deficiency of riparian shading was identified as a prevalent and strong influence, which should be addressed to improve a broad range of societal benefits, particularly in the catchments where riparian shading is scarce. Sediment load had a lower influence on river biology in flashy rivers where it has less potential to settle out. Sediment interacted synergistically with organic matter and phosphate where these stressors were active; tackling these stressor pairs simultaneously can yield additional societal benefits compared to the sum of their individual influences, which highlights the value of integrated management. Our BBN model can be parametrised for other Irish catchments whereas elements of our approach, including the expected index of desirability, can be adapted globally.

Thermal effluents from power plants boost performance of the invasive clam Corbicula fluminea in Ireland's largest river.

Elevated temperatures due to anthropogenic activities can improve the performance of non-native species that are adapted to higher temperatures than resident species. Ecosystems may experience higher temperature due to global stressors, such as climate change, or local stressors, including thermal effluents and urban heat islands. Using field surveys of population density and body size of the highly invasive and hot-adapted clam Corbicula fluminea in and out of two thermal effluents from power plants along the River Shannon, Ireland, we tested the hypothesis that C. fluminea performs better in thermal plumes. Shell length and body mass of C. fluminea in thermal effluents were 1.8 and 4.4 times higher, respectively, compared with adjacent unheated river sections. Density of C. fluminea was 13.7 times higher in heated, compared with unheated river reaches, leading to an increase in combined biomass per unit area of >50-fold. Our temperature data suggest an up to 2.5-fold increase of degree-days for growth and up to 5.2-fold increase of degree-days for larval incubation in the thermal plumes in River Shannon, compared with unheated conditions. Through enlarged body size, the elevated temperatures likely increase fecundity within the plumes. These findings illustrate that, in temperate climates, thermal plumes can form sanctuaries, where C. fluminea likely alters habitat, outpaces competitors and potentially dominates the energy flow through food webs. Furthermore, thermal plumes can act as stepping-stones and propagule banks for further proliferation of C. fluminea and other warm-adapted invaders.