A simple asthma prediction tool for preschool children with wheeze or cough.

BACKGROUND: Many preschool children have wheeze or cough, but only some have asthma later. Existing prediction tools are difficult to apply in clinical practice or exhibit methodological weaknesses. OBJECTIVE: We sought to develop a simple and robust tool for predicting asthma at school age in preschool children with wheeze or cough. METHODS: From a population-based cohort in Leicestershire, United Kingdom, we included 1- to 3-year-old subjects seeing a doctor for wheeze or cough and assessed the prevalence of asthma 5 years later. We considered only noninvasive predictors that are easy to assess in primary care: demographic and perinatal data, eczema, upper and lower respiratory tract symptoms, and family history of atopy. We developed a model using logistic regression, avoided overfitting with the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty, and then simplified it to a practical tool. We performed internal validation and assessed its predictive performance using the scaled Brier score and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Of 1226 symptomatic children with follow-up information, 345 (28%) had asthma 5 years later. The tool consists of 10 predictors yielding a total score between 0 and 15: sex, age, wheeze without colds, wheeze frequency, activity disturbance, shortness of breath, exercise-related and aeroallergen-related wheeze/cough, eczema, and parental history of asthma/bronchitis. The scaled Brier scores for the internally validated model and tool were 0.20 and 0.16, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.76 and 0.74, respectively. CONCLUSION: This tool represents a simple, low-cost, and noninvasive method to predict the risk of later asthma in symptomatic preschool children, which is ready to be tested in other populations.

Breastfeeding and childhood asthma: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Asthma and wheezing disorders are common chronic health problems in childhood. Breastfeeding provides health benefits, but it is not known whether or how breastfeeding decreases the risk of developing asthma. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published between 1983 and 2012 on breastfeeding and asthma in children from the general population. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases for cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies. We grouped the outcomes into asthma ever, recent asthma, or recent wheezing illness (recent asthma or recent wheeze). Using random-effects meta-analyses, we estimated pooled odds ratios of the association of breastfeeding with the risk for each of these outcomes. We performed meta-regression and stratified meta-analyses. We included 117 of 1,464 titles identified by our search. The pooled odds ratios were 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.74, 0.84) for 75 studies analyzing "asthma ever," 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.67, 0.86) for 46 studies analyzing "recent asthma," and 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.76, 0.87) for 94 studies analyzing recent wheezing illness. After stratification by age, the strong protective association found at ages 0-2 years diminished over time. We found no evidence for differences by study design or study quality or between studies in Western and non-Western countries. A positive association of breastfeeding with reduced asthma/wheezing is supported by the combined evidence of existing studies.

Comparison of phenotypes of childhood wheeze and cough in 2 independent cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Among children with wheeze and recurrent cough there is great variation in clinical presentation and time course of the disease. We previously distinguished 5 phenotypes of wheeze and cough in early childhood by applying latent class analysis to longitudinal data from a population-based cohort (original cohort). OBJECTIVE: To validate previously identified phenotypes of childhood cough and wheeze in an independent cohort. METHODS: We included 903 children reporting wheeze or recurrent cough from an independent population-based cohort (validation cohort). As in the original cohort, we used latent class analysis to identify phenotypes on the basis of symptoms of wheeze and cough at 2 time points (preschool and school age) and objective measurements of atopy, lung function, and airway responsiveness (school age). Prognostic outcomes (wheeze, bronchodilator use, cough apart from colds) 5 years later were compared across phenotypes. RESULTS: When using a 5-phenotype model, the analysis distinguished 3 phenotypes of wheeze and 2 of cough as in the original cohort. Two phenotypes were closely similar in both cohorts: Atopic persistent wheeze (persistent multiple trigger wheeze and chronic cough, atopy and reduced lung function, poor prognosis) and transient viral wheeze (early-onset transient wheeze with viral triggers, favorable prognosis). The other phenotypes differed more between cohorts. These differences might be explained by differences in age at measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Applying the same method to 2 different cohorts, we consistently identified 2 phenotypes of wheeze (atopic persistent wheeze, transient viral wheeze), suggesting that these represent distinct disease processes. Differences found in other phenotypes suggest that the age when features are assessed is critical and should be considered carefully when defining phenotypes.

Age-related changes in childhood wheezing characteristics: A whole population study.

BACKGROUND: Wheezing illnesses are characterized by phenotypic variability, which changes with age, but few studies report on a wide age range of children. We studied how prevalence, severity, and triggers of wheeze vary throughout childhood. METHODS: We analyzed data from a large population-based cohort of children from Leicestershire, UK, who were followed from infancy through late adolescence using postal questionnaires. We used generalized estimating equations to describe age-related changes in prevalence of any wheeze: episodic viral and multiple trigger wheeze; wheeze triggered by exercise, aeroallergens, food/drinks, laughing/crying; and of severe wheeze (frequent attacks, shortness of breath, sleep disturbance, disturbance of daily activities) from age 1-18 years. We analyzed this in the entire cohort (absolute prevalence) and separately among children with wheeze (relative prevalence). RESULTS: This study included 7670 children. Current wheeze was most common in 1-year-olds (36%) and then decreased in prevalence to reach 17% in children aged 14-17 years. Absolute prevalence of episodic viral wheeze (EVW) decreased with age (from 24% to 7%), while multiple trigger wheeze (MTW) remained relatively constant throughout childhood (8-12%). Among children with wheeze, the proportion with EVW decreased, and the proportion with MTW increased with age. In older children, wheeze triggered by exercise or aeroallergens, and wheeze accompanied by shortness of breath became more frequent, while wheeze triggered by food or laughter, and sleep disturbance decreased in prevalence. CONCLUSION: Knowledge of these age-related changes in wheezing illness is informative for health care planning and the design of future research projects and questionnaires.

"Attacks" or "Whistling": Impact of Questionnaire Wording on Wheeze Prevalence Estimates.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of prevalence of wheeze depend on questionnaires. However, wording of questions may vary between studies. We investigated effects of alternative wording on estimates of prevalence and severity of wheeze, and associations with risk factors. METHODS: White and South Asian children from a population-based cohort (UK) were randomly assigned to two groups and followed up at one, four and six years (1998, 2001, 2003). Parents were asked either if their child ever had "attacks of wheeze" (attack group, N=535), or "wheezing or whistling in the chest" (whistling group, N=2859). All other study aspects were identical, including questions about other respiratory symptoms. RESULTS: Prevalence of wheeze ever was lower in the attack group than in the whistling group for all surveys (32 vs. 40% in white children aged one year, p<0.001). Prevalence of other respiratory symptoms did not differ between groups. Wheeze tended to be more severe in the attack group. The strength of association with risk factors was comparable in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: The wording of questions on wheeze can affect estimates of prevalence, but has less impact on measured associations with risk factors. Question wording is a potential source of between-study-heterogeneity in meta-analyses.

Breastfeeding, lung volumes and alveolar size at school-age.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies found larger lung volumes at school-age in formerly breastfed children, with some studies suggesting an effect modification by maternal asthma. We wanted to explore this further in children who had undergone extensive lung function testing. The current study aimed to assess whether breastfeeding was associated with larger lung volumes and, if so, whether all compartments were affected. We also assessed association of breastfeeding with apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC), which measures freedom of gas diffusion in alveolar-acinar compartments and is a surrogate of alveolar dimensions. Additionally, we assessed whether these effects were modified by maternal asthma. METHODS: We analysed data from 111 children and young adults aged 11-21 years, who had participated in detailed lung function testing, including spirometry, plethysmography and measurement of ADC of (3)Helium ((3)He) by MR. Information on breastfeeding came from questionnaires applied in early childhood (age 1-4 years). We determined the association between breastfeeding and these measurements using linear regression, controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: We did not find significant evidence for an association between duration of breastfeeding and lung volumes or alveolar dimensions in the entire sample. In breastfed children of mothers with asthma, we observed larger lung volumes and larger average alveolar size than in non-breastfed children, but the differences did not reach significance levels. CONCLUSIONS: Confirmation of effects of breastfeeding on lung volumes would have important implications for public health. Further investigations with larger sample sizes are warranted.