Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory.

We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self-similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%-35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide-angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first-order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun-Earth L5 point.

Heterogeneous mass distribution of the rubble-pile asteroid (101955) Bennu.

The gravity field of a small body provides insight into its internal mass distribution. We used two approaches to measure the gravity field of the rubble-pile asteroid (101955) Bennu: (i) tracking and modeling the spacecraft in orbit about the asteroid and (ii) tracking and modeling pebble-sized particles naturally ejected from Bennu's surface into sustained orbits. These approaches yield statistically consistent results up to degree and order 3, with the particle-based field being statistically significant up to degree and order 9. Comparisons with a constant-density shape model show that Bennu has a heterogeneous mass distribution. These deviations can be modeled with lower densities at Bennu's equatorial bulge and center. The lower-density equator is consistent with recent migration and redistribution of material. The lower-density center is consistent with a past period of rapid rotation, either from a previous Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack cycle or arising during Bennu's accretion following the disruption of its parent body.

Hemispherical differences in the shape and topography of asteroid (101955) Bennu.

We investigate the shape of near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu by constructing a high-resolution (20 cm) global digital terrain model from laser altimeter data. By modeling the northern and southern hemispheres separately, we find that longitudinal ridges previously identified in the north extend into the south but are obscured there by surface material. In the south, more numerous large boulders effectively retain surface materials and imply a higher average strength at depth to support them. The north has fewer large boulders and more evidence of boulder dynamics (toppling and downslope movement) and surface flow. These factors result in Bennu's southern hemisphere being rounder and smoother, whereas its northern hemisphere has higher slopes and a less regular shape. We infer an originally asymmetric distribution of large boulders followed by a partial disruption, leading to wedge formation in Bennu's history.

Neuropsychological functioning following fetal striatal transplantation in Huntington's chorea: three case presentations.

Neurotransplantation has been proposed as a potential treatment for the neurodegenerative disorder of Huntington's disease (HD), which currently has no effective therapy. While patients with Parkinson's disease have received neurotransplantation, until recently no HD patients have undergone transplantation for HD with standardized evaluations of their progress following surgery. The current report presents the cognitive changes in three patients with HD who underwent bilateral transplantation of human fetal striatal tissue. As part of the pre- and postsurgical evaluation, all three patients were administered a neuropsychological battery sensitive to the cognitive effects of HD within 2 mo prior to surgery and at 4-6 mo following transplantation. Four to 6 mo subsequent to surgery, all patients demonstrated increased scores on some measures of cognitive functioning. However, the pattern of changes was not uniform across subjects. These findings suggest that fetal striatal transplantation may improve some of the cognitive symptoms associated with HD in the three reported patients.

Exoplanet detection. A terrestrial planet in a ~1-AU orbit around one member of a ~15-AU binary.

Using gravitational microlensing, we detected a cold terrestrial planet orbiting one member of a binary star system. The planet has low mass (twice Earth's) and lies projected at ~0.8 astronomical units (AU) from its host star, about the distance between Earth and the Sun. However, the planet's temperature is much lower, <60 Kelvin, because the host star is only 0.10 to 0.15 solar masses and therefore more than 400 times less luminous than the Sun. The host itself orbits a slightly more massive companion with projected separation of 10 to 15 AU. This detection is consistent with such systems being very common. Straightforward modification of current microlensing search strategies could increase sensitivity to planets in binary systems. With more detections, such binary-star planetary systems could constrain models of planet formation and evolution.

Influence of magnetic source imaging for planning intracranial EEG in epilepsy.

BACKGROUND: Magnetic source imaging (MSI) is used routinely in epilepsy presurgical evaluation and in mapping eloquent cortex for surgery. Despite increasing use, the diagnostic yield of MSI is uncertain, with reports varying from 5% to 35%. To add benefit, a diagnostic technique should influence decisions made from other tests, and that influence should yield better outcomes. We report preliminary results of an ongoing, long-term clinical study in epilepsy, where MSI changed surgical decisions. METHODS: We determined whether MSI changed the surgical decision in a prospective, blinded, crossover-controlled, single-treatment, observational case series. Sixty-nine sequential patients diagnosed with partial epilepsy of suspected neocortical origin had video-EEG and imaging. All met criteria for intracranial EEG (ICEEG). At a surgical conference, a decision was made before and after presentation of MSI. Cases where MSI altered the decision were noted. RESULTS: MSI gave nonredundant information in 23 patients (33%). MSI added ICEEG electrodes in 9 (13%) and changed the surgical decision in another 14 (20%). Based on MSI, 16 patients (23%) were scheduled for different ICEEG coverage. Twenty-eight have gone to ICEEG, 29 to resection, and 14 to vagal nerve stimulation, including 17 where MSI changed the decision. Additional electrodes in 4 patients covered the correct: hemisphere in 3, lobe in 3, and sublobar ictal onset zone in 1. MSI avoided contralateral electrodes in 2, who both localized on ICEEG. MSI added information to ICEEG in 1. CONCLUSION: Magnetic source imaging (MSI) provided nonredundant information in 33% of patients. In those who have undergone surgery to date, MSI added useful information that changed treatment in 6 (9%), without increasing complications. MSI has benefited 21% who have gone to surgery.