Individual participant data from digital sources informed and improved precision in the evaluation of predictive biomarkers in Bayesian network meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop a network meta-analytic model for the evaluation of treatment effectiveness within predictive biomarker subgroups, by combining evidence from individual participant data (IPD) from digital sources (in the absence of randomized controlled trials) and aggregate data (AD). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A Bayesian framework was developed for modeling time-to-event data to evaluate predictive biomarkers. IPD were sourced from electronic health records, using a target trial emulation approach, or digitized Kaplan-Meier curves. The model is illustrated using two examples: breast cancer with a hormone receptor biomarker, and metastatic colorectal cancer with the Kirsten Rat Sarcoma (KRAS) biomarker. RESULTS: The model allowed for the estimation of treatment effects in two subgroups of patients defined by their biomarker status. Effectiveness of taxanes did not differ in hormone receptor positive and negative breast cancer patients. Epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitors were more effective than chemotherapy in KRAS wild type colorectal cancer patients but not in patients with KRAS mutant status. Use of IPD reduced uncertainty of the subgroup-specific treatment effect estimates by up to 49%. CONCLUSION: Utilization of IPD allowed for more detailed evaluation of predictive biomarkers and cancer therapies and improved precision of the estimates compared to use of AD alone.

Genetic Evidence for Repurposing of GLP1R (Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor) Agonists to Prevent Heart Failure.

Background This study was designed to investigate the genetic evidence for repurposing of GLP1R (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor) agonists to prevent heart failure (HF) and whether the potential benefit exceeds the benefit conferred by more general glycemic control. Methods and Results We applied 2-sample Mendelian randomization of genetically proxied GLP1R agonism on HF as the main outcome and left ventricular ejection fraction as the secondary outcome. The associations were compared with those of general glycemic control on the same outcomes. Genetic associations were obtained from genome-wide association study summary statistics of type 2 diabetes mellitus (228 499 cases and 1 178 783 controls), glycated hemoglobin (n=344 182), HF (47,309 cases and 930 014 controls), and left ventricular ejection fraction (n=16 923). Genetic proxies for GLP1R agonism associated with reduced risk of HF (odds ratio per 1 mmol/mol decrease in glycated hemoglobin 0.75; 95% CI, 0.64-0.87; P=1.69×10-4), and higher left ventricular ejection fraction (SD change in left ventricular ejection fraction per 1 mmol/mol decrease in glycated hemoglobin 0.22%; 95% CI, 0.03-0.42; P=0.03). The magnitude of these benefits exceeded those expected from improved glycemic control more generally. The results were similar in sensitivity analyses, and we did not find evidence to suggest that these associations were mediated by reduced coronary artery disease risk. Conclusions This genetic evidence supports the repurposing of GLP1R agonists for preventing HF.