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1.
Harm Reduct J ; 18(1): 70, 2021 07 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34238306

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Pharmacists are among the most accessible healthcare providers in the United States and uniquely positioned to provide harm reduction services. The availability of pharmacy-based harm reduction services and pharmacist attitudes toward delivering these services have been understudied to date. We examine North Carolina (NC) pharmacists' experiences with and attitudes about harm reduction services and explore differences between rural and urban pharmacists. METHODS: A convenience sample of NC pharmacists participated in an anonymous, online survey regarding harm reduction services: non-prescription syringe sales; naloxone dispensing; and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening. Urban-rural differences were analyzed using Pearson's chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. Open-ended responses were analyzed thematically. RESULTS: Three hundred pharmacists responded to the survey; 68 (23%) practiced in rural counties. Dispensing non-prescription syringes and naloxone at least occasionally was reported by 77% (n = 231) and 88% (n = 263) pharmacists, respectively. Pharmacy-delivered HIV or HCV screening was rare. Urban pharmacists dispensed naloxone more frequently than rural pharmacies (p = 0.04). Only 52% of pharmacists agreed that persons who inject drugs should always be allowed to buy non-prescription syringes. Rural pharmacists' attitudes toward harm reduction services for persons who inject drugs were statistically, though marginally, less supportive when compared to urban pharmacists' attitudes. The most common barrier to non-prescription syringe access was requiring patients to provide proof of prescription injection medication use, which 21% of pharmacists reported was required by their pharmacy's policy on non-prescription syringe sales. CONCLUSIONS: Although most pharmacies distributed naloxone and sold non-prescription syringes, pharmacy store policies and personal beliefs inhibited naloxone and non-prescription syringe dispensing. NC community pharmacies infrequently offer HIV and HCV screening. Paired with disseminating the evidence of the positive impact of harm reduction on individual and public health outcomes to NC pharmacists, institutional and systems changes to practice and policy may be important to promote harm reduction service availability, particularly for rural NC residents. TRIAL REGISTRATION: N/A.


Asunto(s)
Consumidores de Drogas , Abuso de Sustancias por Vía Intravenosa , Actitud del Personal de Salud , Reducción del Daño , Humanos , North Carolina , Farmacéuticos
2.
Clin Infect Dis ; 71(9): 2527-2532, 2020 12 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32155235

RESUMEN

Mathematical modeling of healthcare-associated infections and multidrug-resistant organisms improves our understanding of pathogen transmission dynamics and provides a framework for evaluating prevention strategies. One way of improving the communication among modelers is by providing a standardized way of describing and reporting models, thereby instilling confidence in the reproducibility and generalizability of such models. We updated the Overview, Design concepts, and Details protocol developed by Grimm et al [11] for describing agent-based models (ABMs) to better align with elements commonly included in healthcare-related ABMs. The Modeling Infectious Diseases in Healthcare Network (MInD-Healthcare) framework includes the following 9 key elements: (1) Purpose and scope; (2) Entities, state variables, and scales; (3) Initialization; (4) Process overview and scheduling; (5) Input data; (6) Agent interactions and organism transmission; (7) Stochasticity; (8) Submodels; and (9) Model verification, calibration, and validation. Our objective is that this framework will improve the quality of evidence generated utilizing these models.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Transmisibles , Farmacorresistencia Bacteriana Múltiple , Enfermedades Transmisibles/epidemiología , Atención a la Salud , Humanos , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Análisis de Sistemas
3.
Sex Transm Dis ; 45(4): 229-232, 2018 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29465696

RESUMEN

Guidance about integration of comprehensive hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related services in sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics is limited. We evaluated a federally funded HCV testing and linkage-to-care program at an STD clinic in Durham County, North Carolina. During December 10, 2012, to March 31, 2015, the program tested 733 patients for HCV who reported 1 or more HCV risk factor; 81 (11%) were HCV-infected (ie, HCV antibody-positive and HCV ribonucleic acid-positive). Fifty-one infected patients (63%) were linked to care. We concluded that essential program resources include reflex HCV ribonucleic acid testing; a dedicated bridge counselor to provide test results, health education, and linkage-to-care assistance; and referral relationships for local HCV management and treatment.


Asunto(s)
Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud/organización & administración , Hepatitis C/diagnóstico , Salud Sexual , Anciano , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico , Femenino , Educación en Salud , Recursos en Salud , Accesibilidad a los Servicios de Salud/economía , Hepacivirus/inmunología , Hepatitis C/epidemiología , Anticuerpos contra la Hepatitis C/sangre , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , North Carolina/epidemiología , Evaluación de Resultado en la Atención de Salud , Derivación y Consulta , Factores de Riesgo , Enfermedades de Transmisión Sexual/epidemiología , Enfermedades de Transmisión Sexual/prevención & control
4.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 66(22): 569-573, 2017 Jun 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28594786

RESUMEN

Opioid dependence and overdose have increased to epidemic levels in the United States. The 2014 National Survey on Drug Use and Health estimated that 4.3 million persons were nonmedical users of prescription pain relievers (1). These users are 40 times more likely than the general population to use heroin or other injection drugs (2). Furthermore, CDC estimated a near quadrupling of heroin-related overdose deaths during 2002-2014 (3). Although overdose contributes most to drug-associated mortality, infectious complications of intravenous drug use constitute a major cause of morbidity leading to hospitalization (4). In addition to infections from hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), injecting drug users are at increased risk for acquiring invasive bacterial infections, including endocarditis (5,6). Evidence that hospitalizations for endocarditis are increasing in association with the current opioid epidemic exists (7-9). To examine trends in hospitalizations for endocarditis among persons in North Carolina with drug dependence during 2010-2015, data from the North Carolina Hospital Discharge database were analyzed. The incidence of hospital discharge diagnoses for drug dependence combined with endocarditis increased more than twelvefold from 0.2 to 2.7 per 100,000 persons per year over this 6-year period. Correspondingly, hospital costs for these patients increased eighteenfold, from $1.1 million in 2010 to $22.2 million in 2015. To reduce the risk for morbidity and mortality related to opioid-associated endocarditis, public health programs and health care systems should consider collaborating to implement syringe service programs, harm reduction strategies, and opioid treatment programs.


Asunto(s)
Endocarditis/terapia , Costos de la Atención en Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Trastornos Relacionados con Sustancias/diagnóstico , Trastornos Relacionados con Sustancias/economía , Adolescente , Adulto , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , North Carolina , Adulto Joven
5.
Am J Kidney Dis ; 68(2): 292-295, 2016 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27161589

RESUMEN

In March 2013, public health authorities were notified of a new hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in a patient receiving hemodialysis. We investigated to identify the source and prevent additional infections. We reviewed medical records, interviewed the index patient regarding hepatitis B risk factors, performed HBV molecular analysis, and observed infection control practices at the outpatient hemodialysis facility where she received care. The index patient's only identified hepatitis B risk factor was hemodialysis treatment. The facility had no other patients with known active HBV infection. One patient had evidence of a resolved HBV infection. Investigation of this individual, who was identified as the source patient, indicated that HBV reverse seroconversion and reactivation had occurred in the setting of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) infection and a failed kidney transplant. HBV whole genome sequences analysis from the index and source patients indicated 99.9% genetic homology. Facility observations revealed multiple infection control breaches. Inadequate dilution of the source patient's sample during HBV testing might have led to a false-negative result, delaying initiation of hemodialysis in isolation. In conclusion, HBV transmission occurred after an HIV-positive hemodialysis patient with transplant-related immunosuppression experienced HBV reverse seroconversion and reactivation. Providers should be aware of this possibility, especially among severely immunosuppressed patients, and maintain stringent infection control.


Asunto(s)
Anticuerpos contra la Hepatitis B/sangre , Hepatitis B/sangre , Hepatitis B/transmisión , Diálisis Renal , Seroconversión , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Instituciones de Atención Ambulatoria , Femenino , Humanos , Salud Pública
6.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 63(33): 734-5, 2014 Aug 22.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25144546

RESUMEN

On August 5, 2013, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control was notified of a case of acute respiratory failure in a previously healthy woman. A family interview revealed the patient's uncle and cousin had also been hospitalized with similar symptoms in North Carolina. The South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control and the North Carolina Division of Public Health collaborated to identify the cause of the respiratory illness cluster and to prevent additional illnesses.


Asunto(s)
Familia , Neumonía por Mycoplasma/diagnóstico , Adulto , Análisis por Conglomerados , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Mycoplasma pneumoniae/aislamiento & purificación , North Carolina , Neumonía por Mycoplasma/terapia , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , South Carolina , Adulto Joven
7.
Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis ; 24(1): 36-45, 2024 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38011616

RESUMEN

Background: Antimicrobial resistance (AR) has led to increasing human and animal morbidity and mortality and negative consequences for the environment. AR among Escherichia coli (EC) is on the rise, with serious concerns about extended-spectrum ß-lactamase-producing E. coli (ESBL-EC). In the Galápagos Islands, where antimicrobials are available without a prescription, growing demands for food production can drive antimicrobial use. Food producing animals are at the interface of wildlife and environmental health on the smallest human-inhabited Galápagos Island, Floreana. We sought to determine if ESBL-EC were present in Floreana Island farm animal species and nearby wildlife and the relatedness of ESBL-EC isolates identified. Materials and Methods: During July 4-5, 2022, we visited 8 multispecies farms, representing 75% of food-producing animal production on Floreana, and collected 227 fecal samples from farm animals and wildlife. Each sample was plated on MacConkey agar supplemented with cefotaxime (4 µg/mL). Results: ESBL-EC was isolated from 20 (9%) fecal samples collected from pigs (N = 10), chickens (N = 6), wildlife (N = 3), and dog (N = 1). All ESBL-EC isolates were from samples taken at three (38%) of the eight farms. Fifteen (75%) of the ESBL-EC isolates were from a single farm. All ESBL-EC isolates were multidrug resistant. The most prevalent ESBL genes belonged to the blaCTX-M group. Among the typeable isolates from the farm with the largest proportion of ESBL-EC isolates (N = 14), we observed nine unique pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) patterns, with identical patterns present across pig and chicken isolates. PFGE patterns in the three farms with ESBL-EC isolates were different. Conclusions: These results lend support for future routine AR monitoring activities at the livestock-wildlife interface in Galápagos to characterize potential interspecies transmission of AR bacteria and AR genes in this unique protected ecosystem, and the related human, animal, and environmental health impacts, and to formulate interventions to reduce AR spread in this setting.


Asunto(s)
Antiinfecciosos , Infecciones por Escherichia coli , Animales , Humanos , Porcinos , Perros , Escherichia coli/genética , Granjas , Animales Salvajes , Infecciones por Escherichia coli/epidemiología , Infecciones por Escherichia coli/veterinaria , Infecciones por Escherichia coli/microbiología , Mascotas , Ecosistema , Ecuador/epidemiología , beta-Lactamasas/genética , Pollos/microbiología , Antibacterianos/farmacología
8.
Am J Infect Control ; 51(10): 1089-1094, 2023 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37084795

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, increased antibiotic prescribing and infection prevention challenges coincided with antibiotic-resistant (AR) infection increases. Clostridioides difficile (C difficile) and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are serious, costly AR threats. Health inequities in pandemic-era AR infections are not well-characterized. METHODS: North Carolina statewide inpatient admissions were used to determine monthly admission rates and admission rate ratios (RRs) for C difficile and MRSA infections comparing 2017-2019 (prepandemic) to 2020 (pandemic exposure) using mixed-model Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and COVID-19. We assessed effect measure modification by admissions... community-level income, county rurality, and race and ethnicity. Mean total costs by infection type were compared. RESULTS: With pandemic exposure, C difficile (adjusted RR.ß=.ß0.90 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.86, 0.94]) and MRSA pneumonia (adjusted RR.ß=.ß0.97 [95% CI 0.91, 1.05]) decreased, while MRSA septicemia (adjusted RR.ß=.ß1.13 [95% CI 1.07, 1.19]) increased. Effect measure modification was not detected. C difficile or MRSA coinfection nearly doubled mean costs among COVID-19 admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Despite decreases in C difficile and most MRSA infections, the early COVID-19 pandemic period saw continued increases in MRSA septicemia admissions in North Carolina. Equitable interventions to curb increases and reduce health care costs should be developed.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Staphylococcus aureus Resistente a Meticilina , Sepsis , Infecciones Estafilocócicas , Humanos , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Pacientes Internos , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiología , Infecciones Estafilocócicas/prevención & control , Sepsis/tratamiento farmacológico
9.
Toxins (Basel) ; 15(8)2023 08 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37624262

RESUMEN

Harmful cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) exposures can cause illness or death in humans and animals. We characterized American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (ASPCA) Animal Poison Control Center (APCC) harmful blue-green algae (HBGA) call data, compared it to a measure of harmful algal bloom public awareness, and considered its suitability as a public health information source. ASPCA APCC dog and cat "HBGA exposure" calls made 1 January 2010-31 December 2022 were included. We calculated annual HBGA call percentages and described calls (species, month, origin, exposure route). We characterized public awareness by quantifying Nexis Uni® (LexisNexis Academic; New York, NY, USA)-indexed news publications (2010-2022) pertaining to "harmful algal bloom(s)". Call percentage increased annually, from 0.005% (2010) to 0.070% (2022). Of 999 HBGA calls, 99.4% (n = 993) were dog exposures. Over 65% (n = 655) of calls were made July-September, largely from the New England (n = 154 (15.4%)) and Pacific (n = 129 (12.9.%)) geographic divisions. Oral and dermal exposures predominated (n = 956 (95.7%)). Harmful algal bloom news publications increased overall, peaking in 2019 (n = 1834). Higher call volumes in summer and in the New England and Pacific geographic divisions drove HBGA call increases; public awareness might have contributed. Dogs and humans have similar exposure routes. ASPCA APCC HBGA call data could serve as a public health information source.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades de los Gatos , Cianobacterias , Enfermedades de los Perros , Gatos , Humanos , Animales , Perros , Centros de Control de Intoxicaciones , New York , Canadá
10.
Animals (Basel) ; 13(4)2023 Feb 16.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36830472

RESUMEN

Globally to date, established international standards for animal welfare, a priority of sustainable agriculture, have primarily focused on large-scale producers. However, across Latin America, including in Ecuador's Galápagos Islands, smallholder farms play a critical role in food safety and security. We assessed five basic animal welfare measures (feed and water access, shelter availability and housing systems, animal health management, animal behavior, and timely euthanasia) for poultry, pigs, and cattle on Floreana Island, Galápagos. Utilizing assessment standards from multiple US sources and international standards, we developed a questionnaire and used it to conduct in-depth interviews during 4-5 July 2022 with eight participating producers, representing 75% of animal agriculture on Floreana. While we identified opportunities to enhance competencies in animal health management and timely euthanasia, farms performed well in the other assessed measures. Future work should promote knowledge transfer and in-country capacity building in farm biosecurity, access to veterinary care, antimicrobial resistance surveillance, and euthanasia methods. Efforts to positively impact smallholder farm livelihoods in Galápagos-one of the most biodiverse and protected ecosystems on the planet-will sustainably support human health through the interconnected realms of animal health and welfare, wildlife and environmental health, and food safety and security.

11.
Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol ; 44(6): 898-907, 2023 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36047313

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: Current guidance states that asymptomatic screening for severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prior to admission to an acute-care setting is at the facility's discretion. This study's objective was to estimate the number of undetected cases of SARS-CoV-2 admitted as inpatients under 4 testing approaches and varying assumptions. DESIGN AND SETTING: Individual-based microsimulation of 104 North Carolina acute-care hospitals. PATIENTS: All simulated inpatient admissions to acute-care hospitals from December 15, 2021, to January 13, 2022 [ie, during the SARS-COV-2 ο (omicron) variant surge]. INTERVENTIONS: We simulated (1) only testing symptomatic patients, (2) 1-stage antigen testing with no confirmatory polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, (3) 1-stage antigen testing with a confirmatory PCR for negative results, and (4) serial antigen screening (ie, repeat antigen test 2 days after a negative result). RESULTS: Over 1 month, there were 77,980 admissions: 13.7% for COVID-19, 4.3% with but not for COVID-19, and 82.0% for non-COVID-19 indications without current infection. Without asymptomatic screening, 1,089 (credible interval [CI], 946-1,253) total SARS-CoV-2 infections (7.72%) went undetected. With 1-stage antigen screening, 734 (CI, 638-845) asymptomatic infections (67.4%) were detected, with 1,277 false positives. With combined antigen and PCR screening, 1,007 (CI, 875-1,159) asymptomatic infections (92.5%) were detected, with 5,578 false positives. A serial antigen testing policy detected 973 (CI, 845-1,120) asymptomatic infections (89.4%), with 2,529 false positives. CONCLUSIONS: Serial antigen testing identified >85% of asymptomatic infections and resulted in fewer false positives with less cost per identified infection compared to combined antigen plus PCR testing.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Infecciones Asintomáticas/epidemiología , Prueba de COVID-19 , Hospitales
12.
J Community Health ; 37(2): 495-500, 2012 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21882040

RESUMEN

Timely public health interventions reduce heat-related illnesses (HRIs). HRI emergency department (ED) visit data provide near real-time morbidity information to local and state public health practitioners and may be useful in directing HRI prevention efforts. This study examined statewide HRI ED visits in North Carolina (NC) from 2008-2010 by age group, month, ED disposition, chief complaint, and triage notes. The mean number of HRI ED visits per day was compared to the maximum daily temperature. The percentage of HRI ED visits to all ED visits was highest in June (0.25%). 15-18 year-olds had the highest percentage of HRI visits and were often seen for sports-related heat exposures. Work-related HRI ED visits were more common than other causes in 19-45 year-olds. Individuals ≥65 years were more likely admitted to the hospital than younger individuals. The mean daily number of HRI ED visits increased by 1.4 for each 1°F (degree Fahrenheit) increase from 90°F to 98°F and by 15.8 for each 1°F increase from 98°F to 100°F. Results indicate that HRI prevention efforts in NC should be emphasized in early summer and targeted to adolescents involved in organized sports, young adults with outdoor occupations, and seniors. At a maximum daily temperature of 98°F, there was a substantial increase in the average daily number of HRI ED visits. ED visit data provide timely, sentinel HRI information. Analysis of this near real-time morbidity data may assist local and state public health practitioners in identification of HRI prevention strategies that are especially relevant to their jurisdictions.


Asunto(s)
Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/estadística & datos numéricos , Trastornos de Estrés por Calor/prevención & control , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Niño , Preescolar , Trastornos de Estrés por Calor/epidemiología , Humanos , Lactante , Persona de Mediana Edad , Morbilidad , North Carolina/epidemiología , Factores de Tiempo , Adulto Joven
13.
PLoS One ; 17(3): e0264704, 2022.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35231066

RESUMEN

Agent-based models (ABMs) have become a common tool for estimating demand for hospital beds during the COVID-19 pandemic. A key parameter in these ABMs is the probability of hospitalization for agents with COVID-19. Many published COVID-19 ABMs use either single point or age-specific estimates of the probability of hospitalization for agents with COVID-19, omitting key factors: comorbidities and testing status (i.e., received vs. did not receive COVID-19 test). These omissions can inhibit interpretability, particularly by stakeholders seeking to use an ABM for transparent decision-making. We introduce a straightforward yet novel application of Bayes' theorem with inputs from aggregated hospital data to better incorporate these factors in an ABM. We update input parameters for a North Carolina COVID-19 ABM using this approach, demonstrate sensitivity to input data selections, and highlight the enhanced interpretability and accuracy of the method and the predictions. We propose that even in tumultuous scenarios with limited information like the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, straightforward approaches like this one with discrete, attainable inputs can improve ABMs to better support stakeholders.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Hospitalización , Modelos Biológicos , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/terapia , Humanos , North Carolina/epidemiología , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas
14.
Rural Ment Health ; 46(3): 162-173, 2022 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35967261

RESUMEN

Poor access to care has made western North Carolina vulnerable to an outbreak of hepatitis C viral infection (HCV), particularly among persons who inject drugs (PWID). As substance use disorder (SUD) treatment providers could potentially improve linkage to HCV testing and treatment, we sought to understand SUD providers, clinic and client characteristics; referral patterns; HCV knowledge; willingness to participate in additional trainings; and local linkage-to-care pathways for treatment of substance use and HCV. Online survey data were collected from 78 SUD providers serving PWID in eight western rural North Carolina counties. Providers' attitudes toward working with HCV+ clients were very positive. One-third of providers reported a low fund of knowledge regarding HCV, HCV treatment, and financial assistance opportunities. Non-prescribing providers rarely initiated discussions about HCV testing/treatment, but were receptive to training. Respondents indicated that HCV testing and treatment were best delivered at local health departments or primary care clinics but were open to other venues where PWID access care. The vast majority of prescribing and non-prescribing providers expressed interest in obtaining training in HCV treatments, how to obtain HCV medications and topics on advanced liver disease. Data from prescribing and non-prescribing SUD providers suggest opportunities to develop or expand integrated care models for HCV testing/treatment in PWID in rural Appalachian North Carolina.

15.
Infect Dis Model ; 7(1): 277-285, 2022 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35136849

RESUMEN

Public health decision makers rely on hospitalization forecasts to inform COVID-19 pandemic planning and resource allocation. Hospitalization forecasts are most relevant when they are accurate, made available quickly, and updated frequently. We rapidly adapted an agent-based model (ABM) to provide weekly 30-day hospitalization forecasts (i.e., demand for intensive care unit [ICU] beds and non-ICU beds) by state and region in North Carolina for public health decision makers. The ABM was based on a synthetic population of North Carolina residents and included movement of agents (i.e., patients) among North Carolina hospitals, nursing homes, and the community. We assigned SARS-CoV-2 infection to agents using county-level compartmental models and determined agents' COVID-19 severity and probability of hospitalization using synthetic population characteristics (e.g., age, comorbidities). We generated weekly 30-day hospitalization forecasts during May-December 2020 and evaluated the impact of major model updates on statewide forecast accuracy under a SARS-CoV-2 effective reproduction number range of 1.0-1.2. Of the 21 forecasts included in the assessment, the average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 7.8% for non-ICU beds and 23.6% for ICU beds. Among the major model updates, integration of near-real-time hospital occupancy data into the model had the largest impact on improving forecast accuracy, reducing the average MAPE for non-ICU beds from 6.6% to 3.9% and for ICU beds from 33.4% to 6.5%. Our results suggest that future pandemic hospitalization forecasting efforts should prioritize early inclusion of hospital occupancy data to maximize accuracy.

16.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 9(2): ofab647, 2022 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35071687

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Information is needed to monitor progress toward a level of population immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sufficient to disrupt viral transmission. We estimated the percentage of the US population with presumed immunity to SARS-CoV-2 due to vaccination, natural infection, or both as of August 26, 2021. METHODS: Publicly available data as of August 26, 2021, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used to calculate presumed population immunity by state. Seroprevalence data were used to estimate the percentage of the population previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, with adjustments for underreporting. Vaccination coverage data for both fully and partially vaccinated persons were used to calculate presumed immunity from vaccination. Finally, we estimated the percentage of the total population in each state with presumed immunity to SARS-CoV-2, with a sensitivity analysis to account for waning immunity, and compared these estimates with a range of population immunity thresholds. RESULTS: In our main analysis, which was the most optimistic scenario, presumed population immunity varied among states (43.1% to 70.6%), with 19 states with ≤60% of their population having been infected or vaccinated. Four states had presumed immunity greater than thresholds estimated to be sufficient to disrupt transmission of less infectious variants (67%), and none were greater than the threshold estimated for more infectious variants (≥78%). CONCLUSIONS: The United States remains a distance below the threshold sufficient to disrupt viral transmission, with some states remarkably low. As more infectious variants emerge, it is critical that vaccination efforts intensify across all states and ages for which the vaccines are approved.

17.
South Med J ; 104(9): 653-8, 2011 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21886086

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: To compare the seasonal frequency of doxycycline prescriptions with tick-related emergency department (ED) visits in North Carolina, and to determine if doxycycline prescriptions are associated in time with an increase in the number of ED visits for a tick-related patient complaint or a subsequent diagnosis of a tick-borne infection. METHODS: Aggregate monthly counts of total dispensed doxycycline prescriptions for each North Carolina Piedmont Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) were compared with the proportions of tick-related ED visits from August 2007 through July 2009. RESULTS: Epidemic curves of tick-related ED visits for each of the 6 MSAs were characterized by increased frequency in the spring and summer months followed by a decline in the fall. However, the pattern of doxycycline prescriptions varied by MSA. Doxycycline prescriptions in Durham-Chapel Hill and Raleigh-Cary MSAs increased in the spring and summer, while for the 4 other Piedmont MSAs there was no consistent or pronounced spring-summer increase. CONCLUSION: Doxycycline prescription use did not always correlate well with suspected tick activity in North Carolina. Therefore, doxycycline prescription use cannot necessarily be used as a surrogate measure of tick activity for infectious disease surveillance until the reasons for this variability are better understood.


Asunto(s)
Doxiciclina/administración & dosificación , Prescripciones de Medicamentos/estadística & datos numéricos , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicamentos bajo Prescripción/provisión & distribución , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas/tratamiento farmacológico , Antibacterianos/administración & dosificación , Epidemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , North Carolina/epidemiología , Cooperación del Paciente/estadística & datos numéricos , Estudios Retrospectivos , Estaciones del Año , Enfermedades por Picaduras de Garrapatas/epidemiología
19.
PLoS One ; 16(11): e0260310, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34793573

RESUMEN

The first case of COVID-19 was detected in North Carolina (NC) on March 3, 2020. By the end of April, the number of confirmed cases had soared to over 10,000. NC health systems faced intense strain to support surging intensive care unit admissions and avert hospital capacity and resource saturation. Forecasting techniques can be used to provide public health decision makers with reliable data needed to better prepare for and respond to public health crises. Hospitalization forecasts in particular play an important role in informing pandemic planning and resource allocation. These forecasts are only relevant, however, when they are accurate, made available quickly, and updated frequently. To support the pressing need for reliable COVID-19 data, RTI adapted a previously developed geospatially explicit healthcare facility network model to predict COVID-19's impact on healthcare resources and capacity in NC. The model adaptation was an iterative process requiring constant evolution to meet stakeholder needs and inform epidemic progression in NC. Here we describe key steps taken, challenges faced, and lessons learned from adapting and implementing our COVID-19 model and coordinating with university, state, and federal partners to combat the COVID-19 epidemic in NC.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , Capacidad de Camas en Hospitales/estadística & datos numéricos , Hospitalización/tendencias , Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos/tendencias , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Atención a la Salud , Predicción , Humanos , North Carolina/epidemiología
20.
PLoS One ; 15(6): e0234796, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32584846

RESUMEN

The 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak revealed the fragility of the Guinean public health infrastructure. As a result, the Guinean Ministry of Health is collaborating with international partners to improve compliance with the International Health Regulations and work toward the Global Health Security Agenda goals, including enhanced case- and community-based disease surveillance. We assessed the case-based disease surveillance system during October 1, 2015-March 31, 2016, in the Boffa prefecture of Guinea. We conducted onsite interviews with public health staff at the peripheral (health center), middle (prefectural), and central (Ministry of Health) levels of the public health system to document leadership structure; methods for maintaining case registers and submitting weekly case reports; disease surveillance feedback; data analysis; and baseline surveillance information on four epidemic-prone diseases (cholera, meningococcal meningitis, measles, and yellow fever). The surveillance system was simple and paper-based at health centers and computer spreadsheet-based at the prefectural and central levels. Surveillance feedback to stakeholders at all levels was infrequent. Data analysis activities were minimal at the peripheral levels and progressively more robust at the prefectural and central levels. Reviewing the surveillance reports from Boffa during the study period, we observed zero reported cases of the four epidemic-prone diseases in the weekly reporting from the peripheral to the central level. Similarly, the national District Health Information System 2 had no reported cases of the four diseases in Boffa but did indicate reported cases among all four neighboring prefectures. Based on the assessment findings, which suggest low sensitivity of the case-based disease surveillance system in Boffa, we recommend additional training and support to improve surveillance data quality and enhance Guinean public health workforce capacity to use these data.


Asunto(s)
Exactitud de los Datos , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Salud Pública/educación , Planificación en Salud Comunitaria/estadística & datos numéricos , Brotes de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Guinea , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Humanos , Proyectos de Investigación
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