Global conservation of species' niches.

Environmental change is rapidly accelerating, and many species will need to adapt to survive1. Ensuring that protected areas cover populations across a broad range of environmental conditions could safeguard the processes that lead to such adaptations1-3. However, international conservation policies have largely neglected these considerations when setting targets for the expansion of protected areas4. Here we show that-of 19,937 vertebrate species globally5-8-the representation of environmental conditions across their habitats in protected areas (hereafter, niche representation) is inadequate for 4,836 (93.1%) amphibian, 8,653 (89.5%) bird and 4,608 (90.9%) terrestrial mammal species. Expanding existing protected areas to cover these gaps would encompass 33.8% of the total land surface-exceeding the current target of 17% that has been adopted by governments. Priority locations for expanding the system of protected areas to improve niche representation occur in global biodiversity hotspots9, including Colombia, Papua New Guinea, South Africa and southwest China, as well as across most of the major land masses of the Earth. Conversely, we also show that planning for the expansion of protected areas without explicitly considering environmental conditions would marginally reduce the land area required to 30.7%, but that this would lead to inadequate niche representation for 7,798 (39.1%) species. As the governments of the world prepare to renegotiate global conservation targets, policymakers have the opportunity to help to maintain the adaptive potential of species by considering niche representation within protected areas1,2.

Diversity in invasive species management networks.

Effective management of invasive species requires collaboration across a range of stakeholders. These stakeholders exhibit diverse attributes such as organisation types, operational scale, objectives, and roles within projects. Identifying the diverse attributes of stakeholders is beneficial for increasing collaboration success while minimising potential conflicts among multiple stakeholders when managing invasive species across landscapes. Despite the increasing number of studies on connections among stakeholders, there is little understanding of the diverse attributes of stakeholders involved in invasive species management. This is a notable gap because the diversity of stakeholders is one of the significant factors that can influence collaboration success. To bridge this knowledge gap, we used a social network approach to identify the attributes of stakeholders that influence their participation in collaborations using a case study of invasive wild pig (Sus scrofa) management in Queensland, Australia. Our findings suggest that even though the overall stakeholder network was diverse, the stakeholder network at the project level exhibited a lack of diversity on average, particularly regarding the scale of operation and type of organisation. In other words, stakeholders are highly likely to form ties in projects involving other stakeholders from similar types of organisations or operational scales. We suggest that targeting a greater diversity of stakeholders across types of organisations and scales of operations might enhance the success of collaborative invasive species management.

How success is evaluated in collaborative invasive species management: A systematic review.

Invasive species are one of the most pressing global challenges for biodiversity and agriculture. They can cause species extinctions, ecosystem alterations, crop damage, and spread harmful diseases across broad regions. Overcoming this challenge requires collaborative management efforts that span multiple land tenures and jurisdictions. Despite evidence on the importance and approaches to collaboration, there is little understanding of how success is evaluated in the invasive species management literature. This is a major gap, considering evaluating success is crucial for enhancing the efficacy of future management projects. To overcome this knowledge gap, we systematically reviewed the published literature to identify the stages at which success is evaluated - that is, the Process stage (collaborative management actions and Processes), Outputs stage (results of management actions to protect environmental, economic, and social values) and Outcomes stage (effects of Outputs on environmental, economic, and social values) of collaborative invasive species management projects. We also assessed what indicators were used to identify success and whether these evaluations vary across different characteristics of collaborative invasive species management. Our literature search detected 1406 papers, of which 58 met our selection criteria. Out of these, the majority of papers evaluated success across two stages (n = 25, 43.1%), whereas only ten (17.2%) papers evaluated success across all stages. Outputs were the most commonly evaluated stage (n = 40, 68.9%). The most widely used indicators of success for these stages included increased collaboration of stakeholders (Process stage), the number of captured/eradicated/controlled invasive species (Outputs stage) and change in biodiversity values, such as the number of threatened species (Outcomes stage). Most indicators of success were environmentally focused. We highlight the need to align the indicators of success and evaluation stages with the fundamental objectives of the projects to increase the effectiveness of evaluations and thereby maximise the benefits of collaborative invasive species management.

Disentangling direct and indirect effects of landscape structure on urban bird richness and functional diversity.

As fragmented landscapes become increasingly common around the world, managing the spatial arrangement of landscape elements (i.e., landscape configuration) may help to promote the conservation of biodiversity. However, the relative effects of landscape configuration on different dimensions of biodiversity across species assemblages are largely unknown. Thus, a key challenge consists in understanding when it is necessary to focus on landscape configuration, in addition to landscape composition, to achieve multifunctional landscapes. We tested the effects of landscape composition (the percentage of tree cover and built infrastructure) and landscape configuration (degree of fragmentation) on landscape-level species richness and different metrics of functional diversity of urban birds. We collected data on different bird guilds (nectarivores/frugivores, insectivores) from Brisbane, Australia. Using structural equation models, we found that landscape structure (landscape composition and configuration) affected functional diversity via two main pathways: (1) through effects of landscape composition, mediated by landscape configuration (indirect effects), and (2) through direct ("independent") effects of landscape composition and configuration, filtering species with extreme trait values. Our results show that landscape-level species richness declined with the extent of built infrastructure, but patterns of trait diversity did not necessarily correlate with this variable. Landscape configuration had a stronger mediating effect on some metrics of the functional diversity of insectivores than on the functional diversity of frugivores/nectarivores. In addition, fragmentation increased the effects of built infrastructure for some traits (body size and dispersal capacity), but not for others (habitat plasticity and foraging behavior). These results suggest that differential approaches to managing landscape structure are needed depending on whether the focus is on protecting functional diversity or species richness and what the target guild is. Managing landscape fragmentation in areas with high levels of built infrastructure is important if the objective is to protect insectivore species with uncommon traits, even if it is not possible to preserve high levels of species richness. However, if the target is to enhance both functional diversity and species richness of multiple guilds, the focus should be on improving composition through the reduction of negative effects of built infrastructure, rather than promoting specific landscape configurations in growing cities.

How to prioritize species recovery after a megafire.

Due to climate change, megafires are increasingly common and have sudden, extensive impacts on many species over vast areas, leaving decision makers uncertain about how best to prioritize recovery. We devised a decision-support framework to prioritize conservation actions to improve species outcomes immediately after a megafire. Complementary locations are selected to extend recovery actions across all fire-affected species' habitats. We applied our method to areas burned in the 2019-2020 Australian megafires and assessed its conservation advantages by comparing our results with outcomes of a site-richness approach (i.e., identifying areas that cost-effectively recover the most species in any one location). We found that 290 threatened species were likely severely affected and will require immediate conservation action to prevent population declines and possible extirpation. We identified 179 subregions, mostly in southeastern Australia, that are key locations to extend actions that benefit multiple species. Cost savings were over AU$300 million to reduce 95% of threats across all species. Our complementarity-based prioritization also spread postfire management actions across a wider proportion of the study area compared with the site-richness method (43% vs. 37% of the landscape managed, respectively) and put more of each species' range under management (average 90% vs. 79% of every species' habitat managed). In addition to wildfire response, our framework can be used to prioritize conservation actions that will best mitigate threats affecting species following other extreme environmental events (e.g., floods and drought).

Debido al cambio climático, los mega incendios son cada vez más comunes y tienen un impacto repentino y extenso sobre muchas especies en inmensas superficies, lo que deja a los tomadores de decisiones con incertidumbre sobre cuál es la mejor manera de priorizar la recuperación. Diseñamos un marco de apoyo a las decisiones para priorizar las acciones de conservación para mejorar los resultados para las especies inmediatamente después de un mega incendio. Para esto, se seleccionan localidades complementarias para extender las acciones de recuperación por todos los hábitats de las especies afectadas por el incendio. Aplicamos nuestro método a las áreas afectadas por los mega incendios de 2019-2020 en Australia y analizamos las ventajas de conservación del método mediante la comparación entre nuestros resultados y aquellos de un enfoque en la riqueza de especies (es decir, la identificación de las áreas que recuperan de manera rentable la mayor cantidad de especies en cualquier localidad única). Encontramos que 290 especies amenazadas estuvieron probablemente afectadas de manera severa y requerirán acciones inmediatas de conservación para prevenir la declinación poblacional y la posible eliminación. Identificamos 179 subregiones, la mayoría en el sureste de Australia, que son localidades clave para extender las acciones que benefician a muchas especies. El ahorro en los gastos fue de más de AU$300 millones para reducir el 95% de las amenazas para todas las especies. Nuestra priorización basada en la complementariedad también extendió las acciones de manejo posterior al incendio a una mayor proporción del área de estudio en comparación con el método de riqueza de especies (43% versus 37% del paisaje gestionado, respectivamente) y colocó más de la distribución de cada especie bajo manejo (en promedio 90% versus 79% del hábitat manejado de cada especie). Además de la respuesta a los incendios, nuestro marco puede usarse para priorizar las acciones de conservación que mitiguen de mejor manera las amenazas que afectan a las especies después de otros eventos ambientales extremos (p. ej., inundaciones y sequía).

Fundamental insights on when social network data are most critical for conservation planning.

As declines in biodiversity accelerate, there is an urgent imperative to ensure that every dollar spent on conservation counts toward species protection. Systematic conservation planning is a widely used approach to achieve this, but there is growing concern that it must better integrate the human social dimensions of conservation to be effective. Yet, fundamental insights about when social data are most critical to inform conservation planning decisions are lacking. To address this problem, we derived novel principles to guide strategic investment in social network information for systematic conservation planning. We considered the common conservation problem of identifying which social actors, in a social network, to engage with to incentivize conservation behavior that maximizes the number of species protected. We used simulations of social networks and species distributed across network nodes to identify the optimal state-dependent strategies and the value of social network information. We did this for a range of motif network structures and species distributions and applied the approach to a small-scale fishery in Kenya. The value of social network information depended strongly on both the distribution of species and social network structure. When species distributions were highly nested (i.e., when species-poor sites are subsets of species-rich sites), the value of social network information was almost always low. This suggests that information on how species are distributed across a network is critical for determining whether to invest in collecting social network data. In contrast, the value of social network information was greatest when social networks were highly centralized. Results for the small-scale fishery were consistent with the simulations. Our results suggest that strategic collection of social network data should be prioritized when species distributions are un-nested and when social networks are likely to be centralized.

Ideas Fundamentales sobre Cuándo Son Más Importantes los Datos de las Redes Sociales para la Planeación de la Conservación Resumen Conforme se aceleran las declinaciones de la biodiversidad, existe una exigencia urgente para asegurar que cada dólar que se gasta en conservación contribuya a la protección de las especies. La planeación sistemática de la conservación es una estrategia usada extensivamente para lograr esto, aunque cada vez existe una mayor preocupación por que integre las dimensiones sociales humanas de la conservación para que sea una estrategia efectiva. Aun así, es insuficiente el conocimiento fundamental sobre cuándo son más importantes los datos sociales para orientar a las decisiones de planeación de la conservación. Para tratar con este problema identificamos los principios novedosos que sirven como guía para la inversión estratégica en la información de las redes sociales para la planeación sistemática de la conservación. Consideramos un problema común para la conservación; identificar con cuáles actores sociales, dentro de una red social, interactuar para incentivar el comportamiento de conservación que maximice el número de especies protegidas. Usamos simuladores de redes sociales y de especies distribuidas a lo largo de nodos de redes para identificar las estrategias dependientes del estado más convenientes y el valor de la información provenientes de las redes sociales. Hicimos lo anterior para una gama de estructuras de redes de motivos y distribución de especies y aplicamos la estrategia a una pesquería a pequeña escala en Kenia. El valor de la información proveniente de las redes sociales depende firmemente tanto de la distribución de las especies como de la estructura de la red social. Cuando las distribuciones de las especies se encontraban extremadamente anidadas (es decir, cuando los sitios pobres en cuanto a cantidad de especies son subconjuntos de sitios ricos en cantidad de especies), el valor de la información proveniente de las redes sociales casi siempre fue bajo. Esto sugiere que la información sobre cómo se distribuyen las especies en una comunidad es crítica para determinar si invertir o no en la recolección de datos provenientes de las redes sociales. Como contraste, el valor de este tipo de información fue mucho mayor cuando las redes sociales estaban sumamente centralizadas. Los resultados de la pesquería a pequeña escala fueron compatibles con las simulaciones. Nuestros resultados sugieren que la recolección estratégica de datos a partir de las redes sociales debería ser prioridad cuando las distribuciones de las especies no se encuentran anidadas y cuando sea probable que las redes sociales estén centralizadas.

Use of surrogate species to cost-effectively prioritize conservation actions.

Conservation efforts often focus on umbrella species whose distributions overlap with many other flora and fauna. However, because biodiversity is affected by different threats that are spatially variable, focusing only on the geographic range overlap of species may not be sufficient in allocating the necessary actions needed to efficiently abate threats. We developed a problem-based method for prioritizing conservation actions for umbrella species that maximizes the total number of flora and fauna benefiting from management while considering threats, actions, and costs. We tested our new method by assessing the performance of the Australian federal government's umbrella prioritization list, which identifies 73 umbrella species as priorities for conservation attention. Our results show that the federal government priority list benefits only 6% of all Australia's threatened terrestrial species. This could be increased to benefit nearly half (or 46%) of all threatened terrestrial species for the same budget of AU$550 million/year if more suitable umbrella species were chosen. This results in a 7-fold increase in management efficiency. We believe nations around the world can markedly improve the selection of prioritized umbrella species for conservation action with this transparent, quantitative, and objective prioritization approach.

Uso de Especies Sustitutas para Priorizar las Acciones de Conservación de Manera Rentable Resumen Los esfuerzos de conservación comúnmente se enfocan en las especies paraguas cuyas distribuciones se traslapan con la de muchos otros componentes de la flora y fauna. Sin embargo, como la biodiversidad se ve afectada por diferentes amenazas que presentan una variabilidad espacial, enfocarse solamente en el traslape de la extensión geográfica de las especies puede no ser suficiente para la asignación de las acciones necesarias para abatir eficientemente a las amenazas. Desarrollamos un método basado en problemas para la priorización de las acciones de conservación para las especies paraguas, el cual maximiza el total de flora y fauna beneficiado con el manejo a la vez que considera amenazas, acciones y costos. Probamos nuestro método al valorar el desempeño de la lista de priorización de especies paraguas del gobierno federal de Australia, la cual identifica a 73 especies paraguas como prioritarias para la atención de la conservación. Nuestros resultados muestran que la lista de prioridades del gobierno federal beneficia sólo al 6% de las especies terrestres amenazadas en Australia. Esto podría incrementarse para beneficiar a casi la mitad (o el 46%) de las especies terrestres amenazadas con el mismo presupuesto de AU$550 millones al año si se eligieran a especies paraguas más adecuadas. Esto resulta en un incremento siete veces mayor en la eficiencia del manejo. Creemos que en todo el mundo los países pueden mejorar de una manera muy marcada la selección de las especies paraguas para las acciones de conservación con una estrategia de priorización transparente, cuantitativa y objetiva.

Environmental and geographic variables are effective surrogates for genetic variation in conservation planning.

Protected areas buffer species from anthropogenic threats and provide places for the processes that generate and maintain biodiversity to continue. However, genetic variation, the raw material for evolution, is difficult to capture in conservation planning, not least because genetic data require considerable resources to obtain and analyze. Here we show that freely available environmental and geographic distance variables can be highly effective surrogates in conservation planning for representing adaptive and neutral intraspecific genetic variation. We obtained occurrence and genetic data from the IntraBioDiv project for 27 plant species collected over the European Alps using a gridded sampling scheme. For each species, we identified loci that were potentially under selection using outlier loci methods, and mapped their main gradients of adaptive and neutral genetic variation across the grid cells. We then used the cells as planning units to prioritize protected area acquisitions. First, we verified that the spatial patterns of environmental and geographic variation were correlated, respectively, with adaptive and neutral genetic variation. Second, we showed that these surrogates can predict the proportion of genetic variation secured in randomly generated solutions. Finally, we discovered that solutions based only on surrogate information secured substantial amounts of adaptive and neutral genetic variation. Our work paves the way for widespread integration of surrogates for genetic variation into conservation planning.

Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications.

Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process-explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs - regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species - we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.

Rare plant species do not occupy water-remote refuges in arid environments subject to livestock grazing.

In many of the world's arid regions there has been a dramatic increase in grazing pressure with herds of livestock sustained by the provision of artificial water points. In these systems it has been suggested that grazing-sensitive plant species will have contracted to refuges distant from water points where grazing impacts are low. This association was tested using a large data set of presence/absence records for rare plant species throughout the northeastern Australian arid zone. The presence records of only one of 45 species were statistically associated with lower grazing activity, as a function of distance-to-water, than the absence records. The field observation that this species is rarely grazed suggests it is not susceptible to grazing pressure. In general, the study supports assertions that populations of short-lived plants in drylands are resilient in the face of exaggerated livestock grazing because herbivores are not in sufficient densities to have an impact during the sporadic periods of high rainfall when plants can complete their life cycles. However, long-lived palatable species may be extinction-prone in grazed landscapes over long time frames if recruitment is curtailed by grazing.

Incorporating climate change into ecosystem service assessments and decisions: a review.

Climate change is having a significant impact on ecosystem services and is likely to become increasingly important as this phenomenon intensifies. Future impacts can be difficult to assess as they often involve long timescales, dynamic systems with high uncertainties, and are typically confounded by other drivers of change. Despite a growing literature on climate change impacts on ecosystem services, no quantitative syntheses exist. Hence, we lack an overarching understanding of the impacts of climate change, how they are being assessed, and the extent to which other drivers, uncertainties, and decision making are incorporated. To address this, we systematically reviewed the peer-reviewed literature that assesses climate change impacts on ecosystem services at subglobal scales. We found that the impact of climate change on most types of services was predominantly negative (59% negative, 24% mixed, 4% neutral, 13% positive), but varied across services, drivers, and assessment methods. Although uncertainty was usually incorporated, there were substantial gaps in the sources of uncertainty included, along with the methods used to incorporate them. We found that relatively few studies integrated decision making, and even fewer studies aimed to identify solutions that were robust to uncertainty. For management or policy to ensure the delivery of ecosystem services, integrated approaches that incorporate multiple drivers of change and account for multiple sources of uncertainty are needed. This is undoubtedly a challenging task, but ignoring these complexities can result in misleading assessments of the impacts of climate change, suboptimal management outcomes, and the inefficient allocation of resources for climate adaptation.

Quantifying the conservation gains from shared access to linear infrastructure.

The proliferation of linear infrastructure such as roads and railways is a major global driver of cumulative biodiversity loss. One strategy for reducing habitat loss associated with development is to encourage linear infrastructure providers and users to share infrastructure networks. We quantified the reductions in biodiversity impact and capital costs under linear infrastructure sharing of a range of potential mine to port transportation links for 47 mine locations operated by 28 separate companies in the Upper Spencer Gulf Region of South Australia. We mapped transport links based on least-cost pathways for different levels of linear-infrastructure sharing and used expert-elicited impacts of linear infrastructure to estimate the consequences for biodiversity. Capital costs were calculated based on estimates of construction costs, compensation payments, and transaction costs. We evaluated proposed mine-port links by comparing biodiversity impacts and capital costs across 3 scenarios: an independent scenario, where no infrastructure is shared; a restricted-access scenario, where the largest mining companies share infrastructure but exclude smaller mining companies from sharing; and a shared scenario where all mining companies share linear infrastructure. Fully shared development of linear infrastructure reduced overall biodiversity impacts by 76% and reduced capital costs by 64% compared with the independent scenario. However, there was considerable variation among companies. Our restricted-access scenario showed only modest biodiversity benefits relative to the independent scenario, indicating that reductions are likely to be limited if the dominant mining companies restrict access to infrastructure, which often occurs without policies that promote sharing of infrastructure. Our research helps illuminate the circumstances under which infrastructure sharing can minimize the biodiversity impacts of development.

Dealing with uncertainty in landscape genetic resistance models: a case of three co-occurring marsupials.

Landscape genetics lacks explicit methods for dealing with the uncertainty in landscape resistance estimation, which is particularly problematic when sample sizes of individuals are small. Unless uncertainty can be quantified, valuable but small data sets may be rendered unusable for conservation purposes. We offer a method to quantify uncertainty in landscape resistance estimates using multimodel inference as an improvement over single model-based inference. We illustrate the approach empirically using co-occurring, woodland-preferring Australian marsupials within a common study area: two arboreal gliders (Petaurus breviceps, and Petaurus norfolcensis) and one ground-dwelling antechinus (Antechinus flavipes). First, we use maximum-likelihood and a bootstrap procedure to identify the best-supported isolation-by-resistance model out of 56 models defined by linear and non-linear resistance functions. We then quantify uncertainty in resistance estimates by examining parameter selection probabilities from the bootstrapped data. The selection probabilities provide estimates of uncertainty in the parameters that drive the relationships between landscape features and resistance. We then validate our method for quantifying uncertainty using simulated genetic and landscape data showing that for most parameter combinations it provides sensible estimates of uncertainty. We conclude that small data sets can be informative in landscape genetic analyses provided uncertainty can be explicitly quantified. Being explicit about uncertainty in landscape genetic models will make results more interpretable and useful for conservation decision-making, where dealing with uncertainty is critical.

Abiotic and biotic interactions determine whether increased colonization is beneficial or detrimental to metapopulation management.

Increasing the colonization rate of metapopulations can improve persistence, but can also increase exposure to threats. To make good decisions, managers must understand whether increased colonization is beneficial or detrimental to metapopulation persistence. While a number of studies have examined interactions between metapopulations, colonization, and threats, they have assumed that threat dynamics respond linearly to changes in colonization. Here, we determined when to increase colonization while explicitly accounting for non-linear dependencies between a metapopulation and its threats. We developed patch occupancy metapopulation models for species susceptible to abiotic, generalist, and specialist threats and modeled the total derivative of the equilibrium proportion of patches occupied by each metapopulation with respect to the colonization rate. By using the total derivative, we developed a rule for determining when to increase metapopulation colonization. This rule was applied to a simulated metapopulation where the dynamics of each threat responded to increased colonization following a power function. Before modifying colonization, we show that managers must understand: (1) whether a metapopulation is susceptible to a threat; (2) the type of threat acting on a metapopulation; (3) which component of threat dynamics might depend on colonization, and; (4) the likely response of a threat-dependent variable to changes in colonization. The sensitivity of management decisions to these interactions increases uncertainty in conservation planning decisions.

Spatial scale and movement behaviour traits control the impacts of habitat fragmentation on individual fitness.

Habitat fragmentation, that is the breaking apart of habitat, can occur at multiple spatial scales at the same time, as a result of different land uses. Individuals of most species spend different amounts of times moving in different modes, during which they cover different distances and experience different fitness impacts. The scale at which fragmentation occurs interacts with the distance that individuals move in a particular mode to affect an individual's ability to find habitat. However, there is little knowledge of the fitness consequences of different scales of fragmentation for individuals with different traits of movement behaviour. This is critical to understand the mechanisms of persistence of different species in fragmented landscapes. The aim of this study was to quantify the impacts of habitat fragmentation at different scales on the fitness components (reproduction and survival) of individuals with different traits of movement behaviour. We developed a demographic model of individuals that adopt short and tortuous movements within foraging areas (foraging mode) and long and straight movements between foraging areas (searching mode). We considered individuals that adopt different movement modes with varying frequencies, inherently move different searching distances and experience different risks of mortality during searching. We then applied the model within a spatially explicit simulation framework where we varied simultaneously the degree of fragmentation within (fine scale) and between foraging areas (coarse scale). Fine-scale fragmentation had a greater impact on reproduction and survival than coarse-scale fragmentation, for those individuals with a low searching propensity. The impact of fine-scale fragmentation on reproduction and survival interacted with the impact of coarse-scale fragmentation on reproduction and survival, to affect the fitness of individuals with a high searching propensity, large inherent searching distances and high searching mortality rates. Habitat selection strongly mitigated the impact of the scale at which fragmentation occurred on individual fitness. Our findings suggest that the land use to target with conservation actions to reduce fragmentation, such as financial schemes that promote re-vegetation or retention of standing vegetation, depends on the scale at which fragmentation occurs and the movement behaviour traits of the species of conservation concern.

Two additional principles for determining which species to monitor.

Monitoring to detect population declines is widespread, but also costly. There is, consequently, a need to optimize monitoring to maximize cost-effectiveness. Here we develop a quantitative decision analysis framework for how to optimally allocate resources for monitoring among species. By keeping the framework simple, we analytically establish two new principles about which species are optimal to monitor for detecting declines: (1) those that lie on the boundary between species being allocated resources for conservation action and species that are not and (2) those with the greatest uncertainty in whether they are declining. These two principles are in addition to other factors that are also important in monitoring decisions, such as complementarity. We demonstrate the efficacy of these principles when other factors are not present, and show how the two principles can be combined. This analysis demonstrates that the most cost-effective species to monitor are ones where the information gained from monitoring is most likely to change the allocation of funds for action, not necessarily the most vulnerable or endangered. We suggest these results are general and apply to all ecological monitoring, not just of biological species: monitoring and information are only valuable when they are likely to change how people act.

Effects of threat management interactions on conservation priorities.

Decisions need to be made about which biodiversity management actions are undertaken to mitigate threats and about where these actions are implemented. However, management actions can interact; that is, the cost, benefit, and feasibility of one action can change when another action is undertaken. There is little guidance on how to explicitly and efficiently prioritize management for multiple threats, including deciding where to act. Integrated management could focus on one management action to abate a dominant threat or on a strategy comprising multiple actions to abate multiple threats. Furthermore management could be undertaken at sites that are in close proximity to reduce costs. We used cost-effectiveness analysis to prioritize investments in fire management, controlling invasive predators, and reducing grazing pressure in a bio-diverse region of southeastern Queensland, Australia. We compared outcomes of 5 management approaches based on different assumptions about interactions and quantified how investment needed, benefits expected, and the locations prioritized for implementation differed when interactions were taken into account. Managing for interactions altered decisions about where to invest and in which actions to invest and had the potential to deliver increased investment efficiency. Differences in high priority locations and actions were greatest between the approaches when we made different assumptions about how management actions deliver benefits through threat abatement: either all threats must be managed to conserve species or only one management action may be required. Threatened species management that does not consider interactions between actions may result in misplaced investments or misguided expectations of the effort required to mitigate threats to species.

Cost-efficient fenced reserves for conservation: single large or two small?

Fences that exclude alien invasive species are used to reduce predation pressure on reintroduced threatened wildlife. Planning these continuously managed systems of reserves raises an important extension of the Single Large or Several Small (SLOSS) reserve planning framework: the added complexity of ongoing management. We investigate the long-term cost-efficiency of a single large or two small predator exclusion fences in the arid Australian context of reintroducing bilbies Macrotis lagotis, and we highlight the broader significance of our results with sensitivity analysis. A single fence more frequently results in a much larger net cost than two smaller fences. We find that the cost-efficiency of two fences is robust to strong demographic and environmental uncertainty, which can help managers to mitigate the risk of incurring high costs over the entire life of the project.

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Using multilevel models to identify drivers of landscape-genetic structure among management areas.

Landscape genetics offers a powerful approach to understanding species' dispersal patterns. However, a central obstacle is to account for ecological processes operating at multiple spatial scales, while keeping research outcomes applicable to conservation management. We address this challenge by applying a novel multilevel regression approach to model landscape drivers of genetic structure at both the resolution of individuals and at a spatial resolution relevant to management (i.e. local government management areas: LGAs) for the koala (Phascolartos cinereus) in Australia. Our approach allows for the simultaneous incorporation of drivers of landscape-genetic relationships operating at multiple spatial resolutions. Using microsatellite data for 1106 koalas, we show that, at the individual resolution, foliage projective cover (FPC) facilitates high gene flow (i.e. low resistance) until it falls below approximately 30%. Out of six additional land-cover variables, only highways and freeways further explained genetic distance after accounting for the effect of FPC. At the LGA resolution, there was significant variation in isolation-by-resistance (IBR) relationships in terms of their slopes and intercepts. This was predominantly explained by the average resistance distance among LGAs, with a weaker effect of historical forest cover. Rates of recent landscape change did not further explain variation in IBR relationships among LGAs. By using a novel multilevel model, we disentangle the effect of landscape resistance on gene flow at the fine resolution (i.e. among individuals) from effects occurring at coarser resolutions (i.e. among LGAs). This has important implications for our ability to identify appropriate scale-dependent management actions.