Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models.

Observational analyses of running 5 year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r ∼ 0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find an observation-based reduction in N of - 0.31 ± 0.21 W m-2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. While present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancelation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation. KEY POINTS: Observed maximum in ocean heat content trend in early 2000s is likely spuriousNet incoming radiation (N) reduced by 0.31 ± 0.21 W m-2 during the warming pausePresent-day estimates of N may contain opposing errors in radiative components.

Publisher Correction: Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors.

'In the original HTML version of this Article, ref.12 was incorrectly cited in the first sentence of the first paragraph of the Introduction. The correct citation is ref. 2. This has now been corrected in the HTML version of the Article; the PDF version was correct at the time of publication.'

Critical Southern Ocean climate model biases traced to atmospheric model cloud errors.

The Southern Ocean is a pivotal component of the global climate system yet it is poorly represented in climate models, with significant biases in upper-ocean temperatures, clouds and winds. Combining Atmospheric and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP5/CMIP5) simulations, with observations and equilibrium heat budget theory, we show that across the CMIP5 ensemble variations in sea surface temperature biases in the 40-60°S Southern Ocean are primarily caused by AMIP5 atmospheric model net surface flux bias variations, linked to cloud-related short-wave errors. Equilibration of the biases involves local coupled sea surface temperature bias feedbacks onto the surface heat flux components. In combination with wind feedbacks, these biases adversely modify upper-ocean thermal structure. Most AMIP5 atmospheric models that exhibit small net heat flux biases appear to achieve this through compensating errors. We demonstrate that targeted developments to cloud-related parameterisations provide a route to better represent the Southern Ocean in climate models and projections.

Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis-based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates.

The net surface energy flux is central to the climate system yet observational limitations lead to substantial uncertainty. A combination of satellite-derived radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere adjusted using the latest estimation of the net heat uptake of the Earth system, and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to estimate surface energy flux globally. To consider snowmelt and improve regional realism, land surface fluxes are adjusted through a simple energy balance approach at each grid point. This energy adjustment is redistributed over the oceans to ensure energy conservation and maintain realistic global ocean heat uptake, using a weighting function to avoid meridional discontinuities. Calculated surface energy fluxes are evaluated through comparison to ocean reanalyses. Derived turbulent energy flux variability is compared with the Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFLUX) product, and inferred meridional energy transports in the global ocean and the Atlantic are also evaluated using observations. Uncertainties in surface fluxes are investigated using a variety of approaches including comparison with a range of atmospheric reanalysis products. Decadal changes in the global mean and the interhemispheric energy imbalances are quantified, and present day cross-equator heat transports are reevaluated at 0.22 ± 0.15 PW (petawatts) southward by the atmosphere and 0.32 ± 0.16 PW northward by the ocean considering the observed ocean heat sinks.