Determining the lower limit of detection required for HCV viral load assay for test of cure following direct-acting antiviral-based treatment regimens: Evidence from a global data set.

Achieving global elimination of hepatitis C virus requires a substantial scale-up of testing. Point-of-care HCV viral load assays are available as an alternative to laboratory-based assays to promote access in hard to reach or marginalized populations. The diagnostic performance and lower limit of detection are important attributes of these new assays for both diagnosis and test of cure. Therefore, our objective was to determine an acceptable LLoD for detectable HCV viraemia as a test for cure, 12 weeks post-treatment (SVR12). We assembled a global data set of patients with detectable viraemia at SVR12 from observational databases from 9 countries (Egypt, the United States, United Kingdom, Georgia, Ukraine, Myanmar, Cambodia, Pakistan, Mozambique) and two pharmaceutical-sponsored clinical trial registries. We examined the distribution of HCV viral load at SVR12 and presented the 90th, 95th, 97th and 99th percentiles. We used logistic regression to assess characteristics associated with low-level virological treatment failure (defined as <1000 IU/mL). There were 5973 cases of detectable viraemia at SVR12 from the combined data set. Median detectable HCV RNA at SVR12 was 287,986 IU/mL. The level of detection for the 95th percentile was 227 IU/mL (95% CI 170-276). Females and those with minimal fibrosis were more likely to experience low-level viraemia at SVR12 compared to men (adjusted odds ratio AOR = 1.60 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30-1.97 and those with cirrhosis (AOR = 1.49 95% CI 1.15-1.93). In conclusion, an assay with a level of detection of 1000 IU/mL or greater may miss a proportion of those with low-level treatment failure.

Predictors of switch to and early outcomes on third-line antiretroviral therapy at a large public-sector clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: While efficacy data exist, there are limited data on the outcomes of patients on third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa in actual practice. Being able to identify predictors of switch to third-line ART will be essential for planning for future need. We identify predictors of switch to third-line ART among patients with significant viraemia on a protease inhibitor (PI)-based second-line ART regimen. Additionally, we describe characteristics of all patients on third-line at a large public sector HIV clinic and present their early outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of adults (≥ 18 years) on a PI-based second-line ART regimen at Themba Lethu Clinic, Johannesburg, South Africa as of 01 August 2012, when third-line treatment became available in South Africa, with significant viraemia on second-line ART (defined as at least one viral load ≥ 1000 copies/mL on second-line ART after 01 August 2012) to identify predictors of switch to third-line (determined by genotype resistance testing). Third-line ART was defined as a regimen containing etravirine, raltegravir or ritonavir boosted darunavir, between August 2012 and January 2016. To assess predictors of switch to third-line ART we used Cox proportional hazards regression among those with significant viraemia on second-line ART after 01 August 2012. Then among all patients on third-line ART we describe viral load suppression, defined as a viral load < 400 copies/mL, after starting third-line ART. RESULTS: Among 719 patients in care and on second-line ART as of August 2012 (with at least one viral load ≥ 1000 copies/mL after 01 August 2012), 36 (5.0% over a median time of 54 months) switched to third-line. Time on second-line therapy (≥ 96 vs. < 96 weeks) (adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR): 2.53 95% CI 1.03-6.22) and never reaching virologic suppression while on second-line ART (aHR: 3.37 95% CI 1.47-7.73) were identified as predictors of switch. In a separate cohort of patients on third-line ART, 78.3% (47/60) and 83.3% (35/42) of those in care and with a viral load suppressed their viral load at 6 and 12 months, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that the need for third-line is low (5%), but that patients' who switch to third-line ART have good early treatment outcomes and are able to suppress their viral load. Adherence counselling and resistance testing should be prioritized for patients that are at risk of failure, in particular those who never suppress on second-line and those who have been on PI-based regimen for extended periods.

Does Disseminated Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Disease Cause False-Positive Determine TB-LAM Lateral Flow Assay Results? A Retrospective Review.

We retrospectively reviewed the Determine TB-LAM lateral flow assay (LF-LAM) results among human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients with disseminated nontuberculous mycobacterial (NTM) disease. LF-LAM was positive in 19 of 21 patients without evidence of tuberculosis (TB) coinfection. Although TB-NTM coinfection may have been underdiagnosed, our results suggest that disseminated NTM disease may cause false-positive LF-LAM results.

Evaluation of Xpert MTB/RIF Versus AFB Smear and Culture to Identify Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Patients With Suspected Tuberculosis From Low and Higher Prevalence Settings.

BACKGROUND: The Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) assay is a rapid nucleic acid amplification test widely used in settings of high tuberculosis prevalence to detect tuberculosis as well asrpoBmutations associated with rifampin resistance. Data are needed on the diagnostic performance of Xpert in lower-prevalence settings to inform appropriate use for both tuberculosis detection and the need for respiratory isolation. METHODS: Xpert was compared to 2 sputum samples, each evaluated with acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear and mycobacterial culture using liquid and solid culture media, from participants with suspected pulmonary tuberculosis from the United States, Brazil, and South Africa. RESULTS: Of 992 participants enrolled with evaluable results, 22% had culture-confirmed tuberculosis. In 638 (64%) US participants, 1 Xpert result demonstrated sensitivity of 85.2% (96.7% in participants with AFB smear-positive [AFB(+)] sputum, 59.3% with AFB smear-negative [AFB(-)] sputum), specificity of 99.2%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 97.6%, and positive predictive value of 94.9%. Results did not differ between higher- and low-prevalence settings. A second Xpert assay increased overall sensitivity to 91.1% (100% if AFB(+), 71.4% if AFB(-)), with specificity of 98.9%. In US participants, a single negative Xpert result predicted the absence of AFB(+)/culture-positive tuberculosis with an NPV of 99.7%; NPV of 2 Xpert assays was 100%, suggesting a role in removing patients from airborne infection isolation. Xpert detected tuberculosis DNA and mutations associated with rifampin resistance in 5 of 7 participants with rifampin-resistant, culture-positive tuberculosis. Specificity for rifampin resistance was 99.5% and NPV was 98.9%. CONCLUSIONS: In the United States, Xpert testing performed comparably to 2 higher-tuberculosis-prevalence settings. These data support the use of Xpert in the initial evaluation of tuberculosis suspects and in algorithms assessing need for respiratory isolation.

Evaluation of two line probe assays for rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, tuberculosis (TB) drug resistance, and non-TB Mycobacteria in HIV-infected individuals with suspected TB.

Limited performance data from line probe assays (LPAs), nucleic acid tests used for the rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB), nontuberculosis mycobacteria (NTM), and Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug resistance are available for HIV-infected individuals, in whom paucibacillary TB is common. In this study, the strategy of testing sputum with GenoType MTBDRplus (MTBDR-Plus) and GenoType Direct LPA (Direct LPA) was compared to a gold standard of one mycobacterial growth indicator tube (MGIT) liquid culture. HIV-positive (HIV(+)) individuals with suspected TB from southern Africa and South America with <7 days of TB treatment had 1 sputum specimen tested with Direct LPA, MTBDR-Plus LPA, smear microscopy, MGIT, biochemical identification of mycobacterial species, and culture-based drug-susceptibility testing (DST). Of 639 participants, 59.3% were MGIT M. tuberculosis culture positive, of which 276 (72.8%) were acid-fast bacillus (AFB) smear positive. MTBDR-Plus had a sensitivity of 81.0% and a specificity of 100%, with sensitivities of 44.1% in AFB smear-negative versus 94.6% in AFB smear-positive specimens. For specimens that were positive for M. tuberculosis by MTBDR-Plus, the sensitivity and specificity for rifampin resistance were 91.7% and 96.6%, respectively, and for isoniazid (INH) they were 70.6% and 99.1%. The Direct LPA had a sensitivity of 88.4% and a specificity of 94.6% for M. tuberculosis detection, with a sensitivity of 72.5% in smear-negative specimens. Ten of 639 MGIT cultures grew Mycobacterium avium complex or Mycobacterium kansasii, half of which were detected by Direct LPA. Both LPA assays performed well in specimens from HIV-infected individuals, including in AFB smear-negative specimens, with 72.5% sensitivity for M. tuberculosis identification with the Direct LPA and 44.1% sensitivity with MTBDR-Plus. LPAs have a continued role for use in settings where rapid identification of INH resistance and clinically relevant NTM are priorities.

Relationship between weight, efavirenz exposure, and virologic suppression in HIV-infected patients on rifampin-based tuberculosis treatment in the AIDS Clinical Trials Group A5221 STRIDE Study.

BACKGROUND: Rifampin (RIF) upregulates CYP 450 isoenzymes, potentially lowering efavirenz (EFV) exposure. The US EFV package insert recommends an EFV dose increase for patients on RIF weighing ≥50 kg. We conducted a pharmacokinetic study to evaluate EFV trough concentrations (Cmin) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) virologic suppression in patients on EFV (600 mg) and RIF-based tuberculosis treatment in the multicenter randomized trial (ACTG A5221). METHODS: EFV Cmin was measured 20-28 hours post-EFV dose at weeks 4, 8, 16, 24 on-RIF and weeks 4, 8 off-RIF. Results were evaluated with 2-sided Wilcoxon rank-sum, χ(2), Fisher exact tests and logistic regression (5% type I error rate). RESULTS: Seven hundred eighty patients received EFV; 543 provided ≥1 EFV Cmin. Median weight was 52.8 kg (interquartile range [IQR], 48.0-59.5), body mass index 19.4 kg/m(2) (IQR, 17.5-21.6), and age 34 years (IQR, 29-41); 63% were male, 74% black. Median Cmin was 1.96 µg/mL on-RIF versus 1.80 off-RIF (P = .067). Cmin were significantly higher on-RIF versus off-RIF in blacks (2.08 vs 1.75, P = .005). Weight ≥60 kg on-RIF, compared to <60 kg, was associated with lower EFV Cmin (1.68 vs 2.02, P = .021). However, weight ≥60 kg was associated with more frequent HIV RNA < 400 copies/mL at week 48, compared to weight <60 kg (81.9% vs 73.8%, P = .023). CONCLUSIONS: EFV and RIF-based tuberculosis therapy coadministration was associated with a trend toward higher, not lower, EFV Cmin compared to EFV alone. Patients weighing ≥60 kg had lower median EFV Cmin versus those <60 kg, but there was no association of higher weight with reduced virologic suppression. These data do not support weight-based dosing of EFV with RIF.

Poorer ART outcomes with increasing age at a large public sector HIV clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: As the current HIV-positive population ages, the absolute number of patients >50 years on treatment is increasing. METHODS: We analyze the differences in treatment outcomes by age category (18-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, and ≥ 60) among 9139 HIV-positive adults initiating ART in South Africa. RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality increased with increasing age, with the strongest association in the first 12 months of follow-up among patients 50 to 59 years (HR 1.67; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24-2.23) versus those <30 years. However, patients 50 to 59 years were less likely to be lost during 24 months on antiretroviral therapy ([ART] HR 0.75; 95% CI: 0.59-0.94) versus patients <30 years. By 6 and 12 months on treatment, older patients were less likely to increase their CD4 count by ≥ 50 cells/mm(3). CONCLUSION: Although older patients are at higher risk of mortality and have poorer immunological responses than their younger counterparts, they are more likely to adhere to care and treatment in the first 24 months on ART.

Association between cervical dysplasia and human papillomavirus in HIV seropositive women from Johannesburg South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between CD4 counts, HPV infection and the risk of cervical neoplasia among HIV-seropositive women. METHODS: A cross-sectional observational study was conducted among 1,010 HIV-seropositive women using cytology-based Pap smears. HPV DNA testing using Linear Array genotyping assay (Roche) was carried out in a subset of 191 patients. Multivariable-adjusted prevalence ratios (mPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with log-binomial regression. RESULTS: Among 1,010 HIV-seropositive women, the prevalence of AGC/ASCUS, LSIL and HSIL or greater was 8.3, 23.5 and 18.0%, respectively. The risk of cervical lesions was higher with CD4 < 200 cells/mm(3) vs. CD4 levels > 500/mm(3). HPV types 16 (41.7%) and HPV 56 (22.2%) were the most common types in HSIL cases. Women with CD4 levels < 200/mm(3) had a higher prevalence of HPV types 16 (p < 0.01) and 66 (p = 0.04). No statistical relationship between cervical lesions and HAART use was found. CONCLUSION: The burden of HPV infection and HSIL was high and correlated with HIV-induced immunosuppression. HPV 16 was the most common type in HSIL and increased in prevalence with greater immune suppression. Prophylactic HPV 16 vaccination could prevent approximately 40% of HSIL cases. Strengthening screening programs is imperative in this population.

An incidental finding of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia in a patient with pulmonary tuberculosis.

In this case report, we described a 48-year-old human immunodeficiency virus-negative man with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) who had an incidental finding of concurrent chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. We highlighted the importance of considering other differential diagnoses when patients present with TB or haematological malignancies. We also discussed the difficulties in diagnosis when both of these conditions co-exist and how this affected treatment and management.

The right combination - treatment outcomes among HIV-positive patients initiating first-line fixed-dose antiretroviral therapy in a public sector HIV clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence is critical for achieving optimal HIV treatment outcomes. Fixed-dose combination (FDC) single-pill regimens, introduced in South Africa in April 2013, has simplified pill taking. We evaluated treatment outcomes among patients initiated on a FDC compared to a similar multi-pill ART regimen in Johannesburg, South Africa. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of ART-naïve HIV-positive non-pregnant adult (≥18 years) patients without tuberculosis who initiated first-line ART on tenofovir and emtricitabine or lamivudine with efavirenz at Themba Lethu Clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. We compared those initiated on a multi-pill ART regimen (3-5 pills/day; September 1, 2011-August 31, 2012) to those initiated on a FDC ART regimen (one pill/day; September 1, 2013-August 31, 2014). Treatment outcomes included attrition (combination of lost to follow-up and mortality), missed medical visits, and virologic suppression (viral load <400 copies/mL) by 12 months post-ART initiation. Cox proportional hazards models and Poisson regression were used to estimate the association between FDCs vs multiple pills and treatment outcomes. RESULTS: We included 3151 patients in our analysis; 2230 (70.8%) patients initiated multi-pill ART and 921 (29.2%) patients initiated on a FDC. By 12 months post-initiation, attrition (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.77-1.24) was similar across regimen types (FDC vs multi-pill). Although not significant, patients on a FDC were marginally more likely to achieve viral suppression by 6 (adjusted relative rate [aRR]: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.99-1.23) and 12 months (aRR: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.92-1.36) on ART. Patients initiated on a FDC were significantly less likely to miss medical visits during the first 12 months of treatment (aRR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.52-0.83). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest FDCs may have a role to play in supporting patient adherence and medical monitoring through improved medical visit attendance. This may potentially improve treatment outcomes later on in treatment.

Treatment outcomes of HIV-positive patients on first-line antiretroviral therapy in private versus public HIV clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Despite the widely documented success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), stakeholders continue to face the challenges of poor HIV treatment outcomes. While many studies have investigated patient-level causes of poor treatment outcomes, data on the effect of health systems on ART outcomes are scarce. OBJECTIVE: We compare treatment outcomes among patients receiving HIV care and treatment at a public and private HIV clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort analysis of ART naïve adults (≥18.0 years), initiating ART at a public or private clinic in Johannesburg between July 01, 2007 and December 31, 2012. Cox proportional-hazards regression was used to identify baseline predictors of mortality and loss to follow-up (>3 months late for the last scheduled visit). Generalized estimating equations were used to determine predictors of failure to suppress viral load (≥400 copies/mL) while the Wilcoxon rank-sum test was used to compare the median absolute change in CD4 count from baseline to 12 months post-ART initiation. RESULTS: 12,865 patients initiated ART at the public clinic compared to 610 at the private clinic. The patients were similar in terms of sex and age at initiation. Compared to public clinic patients, private clinic patients initiated ART at higher median CD4 counts (159 vs 113 cells/mm(3)) and World Health Organization stage I/II (76.1% vs 58.5%). Adjusted hazard models showed that compared to public clinic patients, private clinic patients were less likely to die (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.50; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.35-0.70) but were at increased risk of loss to follow-up (aHR 1.80; 95% CI 1.59-2.03). By 12 months post-ART initiation, private clinic patients were less likely to have a detectable viral load (adjusted relative risk 0.65; 95% CI 0.49-0.88) and recorded higher median CD4 change from baseline (184 cells/mm(3) interquartile range 101-300 vs 158 cells/mm(3) interquartile range 91-244), when compared to public clinic patients. CONCLUSION: We identified differences in treatment outcomes between the two HIV clinics. Findings suggest that the type of clinic at which ART patients initiate and receive treatment can have an impact on treatment outcomes. Further research is necessary to provide more conclusive results.

Tuberculosis immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in A5221 STRIDE: timing, severity, and implications for HIV-TB programs.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in HIV-tuberculosis (TB) is associated with increased immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS). The severity, frequency, and complications of TB IRIS were evaluated in A5221, a randomized trial of earlier ART (within 2 weeks after TB treatment initiation) vs. later ART (8-12 weeks after TB treatment) in HIV-infected patients starting TB treatment. METHODS AND MEASUREMENTS: In 806 participants, TB IRIS was defined using published clinical criteria. Cases were classified as severe (hospitalization/death), moderate (corticosteroid use/invasive procedure), or mild (no hospitalization/procedures/steroids). Fisher exact, Wilcoxon, and log-rank tests were used for comparisons. MAIN RESULTS: TB IRIS occurred in 61 (7.6%) patients: 10.4% in earlier vs. 4.7% in later ART, 11.5% with CD4 <50 vs. 5.4% with CD4 ≥50 cells per cubic millimeter. The CD4/ART arm interaction was significant, P = 0.014, with 44.3% of TB IRIS occurring with CD4 <50 and earlier ART. TB IRIS occurred sooner with earlier vs. later ART initiation, at a median of 29 vs. 82 days after TB treatment initiation (P < 0.001). IRIS manifestations included lymphadenopathy (59.0%), constitutional symptoms (54.1%), and radiographic changes (41.0%); central nervous system TB IRIS was uncommon (6.6%). TB IRIS was mild in 27.9%, moderate in 41.0%, and severe in 31.1%. No TB IRIS-associated deaths occurred. IRIS management required ≥1 invasive procedures in 34.4%, hospitalization in 31.1%, and corticosteroids in 54.1%. CONCLUSIONS: TB IRIS was more frequent with earlier ART initiation and CD4 <50 cells per cubic millimeter. As ART is implemented earlier in HIV-TB coinfection, programs will require the diagnostic capabilities, clinical resources, and training necessary to manage TB IRIS.

Cohort profile: the Themba Lethu Clinical Cohort, Johannesburg, South Africa.

The Themba Lethu Clinical Cohort was established in 2004 to allow large patient-level analyses from a single HIV treatment site to evaluate National Treatment Guidelines, answer questions of national and international policy relevance and to combine an economic and epidemiologic focus on HIV research. The current objectives of the Themba Lethu Clinical Cohort analyses are to: (i) provide cohort-level information on the outcomes of HIV treatment; (ii) evaluate aspects of HIV care and treatment that have policy relevance; (iii) evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of different approaches to HIV care and treatment; and (iv) provide a platform for studies on improving HIV care and treatment. Since 2004, Themba Lethu Clinic has enrolled approximately 30,000 HIV-positive patients into its HIV care and treatment programme, over 21,000 of whom have received anti-retroviral therapy since being enrolled. Patients on treatment are typically seen at least every 3 months with laboratory monitoring every 6 months to 1 year. The data collected include demographics, clinical visit data, laboratory data, medication history and clinical diagnoses. Requests for collaborations on analyses can be submitted to our data centre.

Whole-genome sequencing to establish relapse or re-infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Recurrence of tuberculosis after treatment makes management difficult and is a key factor for determining treatment efficacy. Two processes can cause recurrence: relapse of the primary infection or re-infection with an exogenous strain. Although re-infection can and does occur, its importance to tuberculosis epidemiology and its biological basis is still debated. We used whole-genome sequencing-which is more accurate than conventional typing used to date-to assess the frequency of recurrence and to gain insight into the biological basis of re-infection. METHODS: We assessed patients from the REMoxTB trial-a randomised controlled trial of tuberculosis treatment that enrolled previously untreated participants with Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection from Malaysia, South Africa, and Thailand. We did whole-genome sequencing and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number of tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing of pairs of isolates taken by sputum sampling: one from before treatment and another from either the end of failed treatment at 17 weeks or later or from a recurrent infection. We compared the number and location of SNPs between isolates collected at baseline and recurrence. FINDINGS: We assessed 47 pairs of isolates. Whole-genome sequencing identified 33 cases with little genetic distance (0-6 SNPs) between strains, deemed relapses, and three cases for which the genetic distance ranged from 1306 to 1419 SNPs, deemed re-infections. Six cases of relapse and six cases of mixed infection were classified differently by whole-genome sequencing and MIRU-VNTR. We detected five single positive isolates (positive culture followed by at least two negative cultures) without clinical evidence of disease. INTERPRETATION: Whole-genome sequencing enables the differentiation of relapse and re-infection cases with greater resolution than do genotyping methods used at present, such as MIRU-VNTR, and provides insights into the biology of recurrence. The additional clarity provided by whole-genome sequencing might have a role in defining endpoints for clinical trials. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, European Union, Medical Research Council, Global Alliance for TB Drug Development, European and Developing Country Clinical Trials Partnership.

Effectiveness and safety of 30 mg versus 40 mg stavudine regimens: a cohort study among HIV-infected adults initiating HAART in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: As stavudine remains an important and widely prescribed drug in resource-limited settings, the effect of a reduced dose of stavudine (from 40 mg to 30 mg) on outcomes of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) remains an important public health question. METHODS: We analyzed prospectively collected data from the Themba Lethu Clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. We assessed the relationship between stavudine dose and six- and/or 12-month outcomes of stavudine substitution, failure to suppress viral load to below 400 copies/ml, development of peripheral neuropathy, lipoatrophy and hyperlactatemia/lactic acidosis. Since individuals with a baseline weight of less than 60 kg were expected to have received the same dose of stavudine throughout the study period, analysis was restricted to individuals who weighed 60 kg or more at baseline. Data were analyzed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Between 1 April 2004 and 30 September 2009, 3910 patients were initiated on antiretroviral therapy (ART) with a recorded stavudine dose and were included in the analysis. Of these, 2445 (62.5%) received a 40 mg stavudine dose while 1565 (37.5%) received 30 mg. In multivariate analysis, patients receiving a 40 mg dose were more likely to discontinue stavudine use (adjusted odds ratio, OR 1.71; 95% confidence limits, CI 1.13-2.57) than those receiving 30 mg by 12 months on ART. Additionally, patients receiving 40 mg doses of stavudine were more likely to report peripheral neuropathy (OR 3.12; 95% CI 1.86-5.25), lipoatrophy (OR 11.8; 95% CI 3.2-43.8) and hyperlactatemia/lactic acidosis (OR 8.37; 95% CI 3.83-18.29) in the same time period. Failure to suppress HIV viral load within 12 months of HAART initiation was somewhat more common among those given 40 mg doses (OR 1.62; 95% CI 0.88, 2.97) although this result lacked precision. Sensitivity analyses accounting for death and loss to follow up generally supported these estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Lower stavudine dosage is associated with fewer reports of several stavudine-associated adverse events and also a lower risk of stavudine discontinuation within the first year on ART.

Initiating patients on antiretroviral therapy at CD4 cell counts above 200 cells/microl is associated with improved treatment outcomes in South Africa.

OBJECTIVES: To compare treatment outcomes by starting CD4 cell counts using data from the Comprehensive International Program of Research on AIDS-South Africa trial. DESIGN: An observational cohort study. METHODS: Patients presenting to primary care clinics with CD4 cell counts below 350 cells/microl were randomized to either doctor or nurse-managed HIV care and followed for at least 2 years after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation. Clinical and laboratory outcomes were compared by baseline CD4 cell counts. RESULTS: Eight hundred and twelve patients were followed for a median of 27.5 months and 36% initiated ART with a CD4 cell count above 200 cells/microl. Although 10% of patients failed virologically, the risk was nearly double among those with a CD4 cell count of 200 cells/microl or less vs. above 200 cells/microl (12.2 vs. 6.8%). Twenty-one deaths occurred, with a five-fold increased risk for the low CD4 cell count group (3.7 vs. 0.7%). After adjustment, those with a CD4 cell count of 200 cells/microl had twice the risk of death/virologic failure [hazard ratio 1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-3.3] and twice the risk of incident tuberculosis (hazard ratio 1.90; 95% CI, 0.89-4.04) as those above 200 cells/microl. Those with either a CD4 cell count of 200 cells/microl or less (hazard ratio 2.1; 95% CI, 1.2-3.8) or a WHO IV condition (hazard ratio 2.9; 95% CI, 0.93-8.8) alone had a two-to-three-fold increased risk of death/virologic failure vs. those with neither, but those with both conditions had a four-fold increased risk (hazard ratio 3.9; 95% CI, 1.9-8.1). We observed some decreased loss to follow-up among those initiating ART at less than 200 cells/microl (hazard ratio 0.79; 95% CI, 0.50-1.25). CONCLUSION: Patients initiating ART with higher CD4 cell counts had reduced mortality, tuberculosis and less virologic failure than those initiated at lower CD4 cell counts. Our data support increasing CD4 cell count eligibility criteria for ART initiation.

Long term outcomes of antiretroviral therapy in a large HIV/AIDS care clinic in urban South Africa: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical, immunologic and virologic outcomes at large HIV/AIDS care clinics in resource poor settings are poorly described beyond the first year of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). We aimed to prospectively evaluate long-term treatment outcomes at a large scale HIV/AIDS care clinic in South Africa. METHODS: Cohort study of patients initiating HAART between April 1, 2004 and March 13, 2007, and followed up until April 1, 2008 at a public HIV/AIDS care clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. We performed time to event analysis on key treatment outcomes and program impact parameters including mortality, retention in care, CD4 count gain, virologic success and first line regimen durability. RESULTS: 7583 HIV-infected patients initiated care and contributed to 161,000 person months follow up. Overall mortality rate was low (2.9 deaths per 100 person years, 95% CI 2.6-3.2), but high in the first three months of HAART (8.4 per 100 person years, 95% CI 7.2-9.9). Long-term on-site retention in care was relatively high (74.4% at 4 years, 95%CI 73.2-75.6). CD4 count was above 200 cells/mm(3 )after 6 months of treatment in almost all patients. By the fourth year of HAART, the majority (59.6%, 95%CI 57.8-61.4) of patients had at least one first line drug (mainly stavudine) substituted. Women were twice as likely to experience drug substitution (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.80-2.16). By 6 months of HAART, 90.8% suppressed virus below 400 copies. Among those with initial viral suppression, 9.4% (95% CI 8.5-10.3%) had viral rebound within one year of viral suppression, 16.8% (95% CI 15.5-18.1) within 2 years, and 20.6% (95% CI 18.9-22.4) within 3 years of initial suppression. Only 10% of women and 13% of men initiated second line HAART. CONCLUSION: Despite advanced disease presentation and a very large-scale program, high quality care was achieved as indicated by good long-term clinical, immunologic and virologic outcomes and a low rate of second line HAART initiation. High rates of single drug substitution suggest that the public health approach to HAART could be further improved by the use of a more durable first line regimen.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for initiating and monitoring highly active antiretroviral therapy in the developing world.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the cost-effectiveness of initiating and monitoring highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in developing countries according to developing world versus developed world guidelines. DESIGN: Lifetime Markov model incorporating costs, quality of life, survival, and transmission to sexual contacts. METHODS: We evaluated treating patients with HIV in South Africa according to World Health Organization (WHO) "3 by 5" guidelines (treat CD4 counts 100,000 copies/mL, and monitor CD4 cell counts and viral load every 3 months. RESULTS: Incorporating transmission to partners (excluding indirect costs), treating patients according to developed versus developing world guidelines increased costs by US $11,867 and increased life expectancy by 3.00 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), for an incremental cost-effectiveness of $3956 per QALY. Including indirect costs, over the duration of the model, there are net cost savings to the economy of $39.4 billion, with increased direct medical costs of $60.5 billion offset by indirect cost savings of $99.9 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Treating patients with HIV according to developed versus developing world guidelines is highly cost-effective and may result in substantial long-term savings.