Development and External Validation of an Automated Computer-Aided Risk Score for Predicting Sepsis in Emergency Medical Admissions Using the Patient's First Electronically Recorded Vital Signs and Blood Test Results.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a logistic regression model to predict the risk of sepsis following emergency medical admission using the patient's first, routinely collected, electronically recorded vital signs and blood test results and to validate this novel computer-aided risk of sepsis model, using data from another hospital. DESIGN: Cross-sectional model development and external validation study reporting the C-statistic based on a validated optimized algorithm to identify sepsis and severe sepsis (including septic shock) from administrative hospital databases using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition, codes. SETTING: Two acute hospitals (York Hospital - development data; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital - external validation data). PATIENTS: Adult emergency medical admissions discharged over a 24-month period with vital signs and blood test results recorded at admission. INTERVENTIONS: None. MAIN RESULTS: The prevalence of sepsis and severe sepsis was lower in York Hospital (18.5% = 4,861/2,6247; 5.3% = 1,387/2,6247) than Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital (25.1% = 7,773/30,996; 9.2% = 2,864/30,996). The mortality for sepsis (York Hospital: 14.5% = 704/4,861; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: 11.6% = 899/7,773) was lower than the mortality for severe sepsis (York Hospital: 29.0% = 402/1,387; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: 21.4% = 612/2,864). The C-statistic for computer-aided risk of sepsis in York Hospital (all sepsis 0.78; sepsis: 0.73; severe sepsis: 0.80) was similar in an external hospital setting (Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: all sepsis 0.79; sepsis: 0.70; severe sepsis: 0.81). A cutoff value of 0.2 gives reasonable performance. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a novel, externally validated computer-aided risk of sepsis, with reasonably good performance for estimating the risk of sepsis for emergency medical admissions using the patient's first, electronically recorded, vital signs and blood tests results. Since computer-aided risk of sepsis places no additional data collection burden on clinicians and is automated, it may now be carefully introduced and evaluated in hospitals with sufficient informatics infrastructure.

Assessment of cognitive function across pregnancy using CANTAB: a longitudinal study.

Significant changes in endogenous plasma hormone levels are required to sustain pregnancy which provides a unique opportunity to study their effect on cognitive function. Four carefully selected tests from the Cambridge Neuropsychological Automated Test Battery (CANTAB) were administered to assess the cognitive function of a group of 23 women during each trimester of pregnancy and at three months following birth. Test scores were compared with a control group of 24 non-pregnant women. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale was administered to assess anxiety and risk of depression. The National Adult Reading Test (NART) was used as a measure of verbal intelligence. Plasma hormone levels were measured at each time-point. The pregnant group scored significantly lower than the control group on the Spatial Recognition Memory (SRM) test at the second trimester and postpartum assessments (p⩽0.004). A significant pregnant group-time interaction (p=0.005) for SRM performance was demonstrated. Compared to their first trimester assessment, the pregnant group scored on average 11.7% less on each subsequent SRM test. The pregnant group reported more symptoms of anxiety and depression compared to the control group (EPDS-4 point increase in mean score at each assessment, p=0.002). There were no plasma hormone levels and test score associations identified. These data suggest SRM performance is adversely affected by pregnancy. Other aspects of executive function seem to be unaffected. Although the pregnant group reported more symptoms of anxiety and depression compared to the control group, analysis indicates that this confounder is not responsible for the SRM differences.

Bilateral changes in foveal structure in individuals with amblyopia.

PURPOSE: To examine foveal structure in amblyopia using spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). DESIGN: Prospective, cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS AND CONTROLS: Two subject groups were recruited to the study: 85 amblyopes (34 adults, 51 children) and 110 visually normal controls (44 adults, 66 children). METHODS: A detailed eye examination, including an SD-OCT scan, was performed in all participants. A total of 390 eyes of 195 subjects were imaged using a 3-dimensional (3D) macula scan covering a nominal 6 × 6-mm area with a resolution of 256 × 256 (65,536 axial scans). Data from the B-scans bisecting the fovea both horizontally and vertically were fitted with a mathematical model of the fovea to determine a range of foveal parameters. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Foveal thickness, foveal pit depth, and foveal pit slope. RESULTS: Bilateral differences between the eyes of amblyopes compared with visually normal controls were found. The difference between foveal structure in amblyopic participants relative to structure in subjects with normal vision persisted even when variables such as age, ethnicity, axial length, and sex were taken into account. Amblyopes showed increased foveal thickness (+8.31 µm; P = 0.006) and a reduction in pit depth in the horizontal meridian (-10.06 µm; P = 0.005) but not in the vertical meridian (P = 0.082) when compared with subjects with normal vision. Foveal pit slopes were found to be approximately 1 degree flatter in the nasal (P = 0.033) and temporal (P = 0.014) meridians in amblyopes, but differences between amblyopes and controls in the superior (P = 0.061) and inferior (P = 0.087) meridians did not reach statistical significance. No statistically significant interocular differences were found in the foveal structure between amblyopic and fellow eyes. CONCLUSIONS: Differences were found in the foveal structure in both eyes of amblyopes compared with subjects with normal vision. These differences consisted of increased foveal thickness, reduced pit depth when measured along the horizontal meridian, and flattening of the nasal and temporal sides of the foveal pit.

Cumulative Radiation Dose from Medical Imaging in Children with Congenital Heart Disease: A Systematic Review.

Children with congenital heart disease are exposed to repeated medical imaging throughout their lifetime. Although the imaging contributes to their care and treatment, exposure to ionising radiation is known to increase one's lifetime attributable risk of malignancy. A systematic search of multiple databases was performed. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to all relevant papers and seven were deemed acceptable for quality assessment and risk of bias assessment. The cumulative effective dose (CED) varied widely across the patient cohorts, ranging from 0.96 mSv to 53.5 mSv. However, it was evident across many of the included studies that a significant number of patients were exposed to a CED >20 mSv, the current annual occupational exposure limit. Many factors affected the dose which patients received, including age and clinical demographics. The imaging modality which contributed the most radiation dose to patients was cardiology interventional procedures. Paediatric patients with congenital heart disease are at an increased risk of receiving an elevated cumulative radiation dose across their lifetime. Further research should focus on identifying risk factors for receiving higher radiation doses, keeping track of doses, and dose optimisation where possible.

Importance of binocular vision in foot placement accuracy when stepping onto a floor-based target during gait initiation.

This study investigated the importance of binocular vision to foot placement accuracy when stepping onto a floor-based target during gait initiation. Starting from stationary, participants placed alternate feet onto targets sequentially positioned along a straight travel path with the added constraint that the initial target (target 1) could move in the medio-lateral (M-L) direction. Repeated trials when target 1 remained stationary or moved laterally at the instant of lead-limb toe-off (TO) or 200 ms after TO (early swing) were undertaken under binocular and monocular viewing. Catch trials when target 1 shifted medially were also undertaken. Foot-reach kinematics, foot trajectory corrections and foot placement accuracy for the step onto target 1 were determined via 3D motion analyses. Peak foot-reach velocity and initial foot-reach duration were unaffected by vision condition but terminal foot-reach duration was prolonged under monocular conditions (p = 0.002). Foot trajectory alteration onsets were unaffected by vision condition, but onsets occurred sooner when the target shifted in early swing compared to at TO (p = 0.033). M-L foot placement accuracy decreased (p = 0.025) and variability increased (p = 0.05) under monocular conditions, particularly when stepping onto the moving target. There was no difference between vision conditions in A-P foot placement accuracy. Results indicate that monocular vision provides sufficient information to determine stepping distance and correctly transport the foot towards the target but binocular vision is required to attain a precise M-L foot placement; particularly so when stepping onto a moving target. These findings are in agreement with those found in the reaching and grasping literature, indicating that binocular vision is important for end-point precision.

What drives adaptive gait changes to acutely presented monocular blur?

PURPOSE: To determine whether gait alterations due to monocular spherical lens blur were a safety strategy or driven by lens magnification. METHODS: Adaptive gait and visual function were measured in 10 older adults (mean age, 74.9 ± 4.8 years) with the participants' optimal refractive correction and when monocularly blurred with ±1.00 DS and ±2.00 DS lens over the dominant eye. Adaptive gait measurements for the lead and trail foot included foot position before the raised surface, toe clearance of the raised surface edge, and foot position on the raised surface. Vision measurements included binocular visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, and stereoacuity. RESULTS: Equal levels of monocular positive and negative spherical lens blur led to very different stepping strategies when negotiating a raised surface. Positive blur lenses led to an increased vertical toe clearance and reduced distance of the lead foot position on the raised surface. Negative lenses led to the opposite of these changes. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that step negotiation strategies were driven by the magnification effect provided by the spherical lenses. Steps appeared closer and larger with magnification from positive lenses and further away and smaller with minification from negative lenses and gait was adjusted accordingly. These results suggest that previously reported adaptive gait changes to monocular spherical lens blur were not safety strategies as previously suggested but driven by lens magnification. The significance of these findings in terms of prescribing large refractive changes in frail older patients is discussed.

Adaptive gait changes in older people due to lens magnification.

PURPOSE: Intervention trials that reduce visual impairment in older adults have not produced the expected improvements in reducing falls rate. We hypothesised that this may be caused by adaptation problems in older adults due to changes in magnification provided by new spectacles and cataract surgery. This study assessed the effects of ocular magnification on adaptive gait in young and older adults. METHODS: Adaptive gait was measured in 10 young (mean age 22.3 ± 4.6 years) and 10 older adults (mean age 74.2 ± 4.3 years) with the participants' habitual refractive correction (0%) and with size lenses producing ocular magnification of ±1%, ±2%, ±3%, and ±5%. Adaptive gait parameters were measured when participants approached and stepped up onto a raised surface. RESULTS: Adaptive gait changes in the young and older age groups were similar. Increasing amounts of magnification (+1% to +5%) led to an increased distance of the feet from the raised surface, increased vertical toe clearance and reduced distance of the lead heel position on the raised surface (p < 0.0001). Increasing amounts of minification (-1% to -5%) led to the opposite of these changes (p < 0.0001). Adaptation to ocular magnification did not occur in the short term in young or older adults. CONCLUSION: The observed adaptive gait changes were driven by the magnification changes provided by the size lenses. The raised surface appeared closer and larger with magnification and further away and smaller with minification and gait was adjusted accordingly. Magnification may explain the mobility problems some older adults have with updated spectacles and after cataract surgery.

Adaptive gait changes in long-term wearers of contact lens monovision correction.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to determine adaptive gait changes in long-term wearers of monovision correction contact lenses by comparing gait parameters when wearing monovision correction to those observed when wearing binocular distance correction contact lenses. METHODS: Gait and toe clearance parameters were measured in eleven participants (53.5 +/- 4.6 years, median monovision wearing time 5 years) as they repeatedly walked up to and onto a raised surface with either monovision or distance correction. RESULTS: Compared to distance correction, monovision resulted in a large reduction in stereoacuity from 17'' to 87'', a slower walking velocity (p = 0.001), a reduced horizontal toe clearance of the step edge (p = 0.035) and, for trials when monovision correction occurred first, a 33% greater variability in vertical toe clearance (p = 0.021). Variability in some gait data was large due to certain study design features and learning effects. CONCLUSION: A slower walking velocity with monovision correction suggests participants became more cautious, likely as a result of the significantly reduced stereoacuity. The decreased horizontal toe clearance and increased vertical toe clearance variability suggests that monovision correction may cause a greater likelihood of hitting step edges and tripping during everyday gait. Recommended study design features are suggested for future adaptive gait studies to increase the precision of the data and to attempt to minimize the effects of learning from somatosensory feedback.

Medication-related risk factors and its association with repeated hospital admissions in frail elderly: A case control study.

BACKGROUND: Repeated hospital admissions are prevalent in older people. The role of medication in repeated hospital admissions has not been widely studied. The hypothesis that medication-related risk factors for initial hospital admissions were also associated with repeated hospital admissions was generated. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between medication-related risk factors and repeated hospital admissions in older people living with frailty. METHOD: A retrospective case-control study was carried out with 200 patients aged ≥75 years with unplanned medical admissions into a large teaching hospital in England between January and December 2015. Demographic, clinical, and medication-related data were obtained from review of discharge summaries. Statistical comparisons were made between patients with 3 or more hospital admissions during the study period (cases) and those with 2 or fewer admissions (controls). Regressions were performed to establish independent predictors of repeated hospital admissions. RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 83.8 years (SD 5.68) and 65.5% were female. There were 561 admission episodes across the sample, with the main reasons for admissions recorded as respiratory problems (25%) and falls (17%). Univariate logistic regression revealed five medication-related risks to be associated with repeated hospital admissions: Hyper-polypharmacy (defined as taking ≥10 medications) (OR 2.50, p < 0.005); prescription of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) (OR 1.89; p < 0.05); prescription of a diuretic (OR 1.87; p < 0.05); number of high risk medication (OR 1.29; p < 0.05) and the number of 'when required' medication (OR 1.20; p < 0.05). However, the effects of these risk factors became insignificant when comorbid disease was adjusted for in a multivariable model. CONCLUSION: Medication-related risk factors may play an important role in future repeated admission risk prediction models. The modifiable nature of medication-related risks factors highlights a real opportunity to improve health outcomes.

A comparison of logistic regression models with alternative machine learning methods to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in emergency medical admissions via external validation.

We compare the performance of logistic regression with several alternative machine learning methods to estimate the risk of death for patients following an emergency admission to hospital based on the patients' first blood test results and physiological measurements using an external validation approach. We trained and tested each model using data from one hospital (n = 24,696) and compared the performance of these models in data from another hospital (n = 13,477). We used two performance measures - the calibration slope and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The logistic model performed reasonably well - calibration slope: 0.90, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.847 compared to the other machine learning methods. Given the complexity of choosing tuning parameters of these methods, the performance of logistic regression with transformations for in-hospital mortality prediction was competitive with the best performing alternative machine learning methods with no evidence of overfitting.

Performance of externally validated enhanced computer-aided versions of the National Early Warning Score in predicting mortality following an emergency admission to hospital in England: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: In the English National Health Service, the patient's vital signs are monitored and summarised into a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) to support clinical decision making, but it does not provide an estimate of the patient's risk of death. We examine the extent to which the accuracy of NEWS for predicting mortality could be improved by enhanced computer versions of NEWS (cNEWS). DESIGN: Logistic regression model development and external validation study. SETTING: Two acute hospitals (YH-York Hospital for model development; NH-Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital for external model validation). PARTICIPANTS: Adult (≥16 years) medical admissions discharged over a 24-month period with electronic NEWS (eNEWS) recorded on admission are used to predict mortality at four time points (in-hospital, 24 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours) using the first electronically recorded NEWS (model M0) versus a cNEWS model which included age+sex (model M1) +subcomponents of NEWS (including diastolic blood pressure) (model M2). RESULTS: The risk of dying in-hospital following emergency medical admission was 5.8% (YH: 2080/35 807) and 5.4% (NH: 1900/35 161). The c-statistics for model M2 in YH for predicting mortality (in-hospital=0.82, 24 hours=0.91, 48 hours=0.88 and 72 hours=0.88) was higher than model M0 (in-hospital=0.74, 24 hours=0.89, 48 hours=0.86 and 72 hours=0.85) with higher Positive Predictive Value (PPVs) for in-hospital mortality (M2 19.3% and M0 16.6%). Similar findings were seen in NH. Model M2 performed better than M0 in almost all major disease subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: An externally validated enhanced computer-aided NEWS model (cNEWS) incrementally improves on the performance of a NEWS only model. Since cNEWS places no additional data collection burden on clinicians and is readily automated, it may now be carefully introduced and evaluated to determine if it can improve care in hospitals that have eNEWS systems.

The inclusion of delirium in version 2 of the National Early Warning Score will substantially increase the alerts for escalating levels of care: findings from a retrospective database study of emergency medical admissions in two hospitals .

BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is being replaced with NEWS2 which adds 3 points for new confusion or delirium. We estimated the impact of adding delirium on the number of medium/high level alerts that are triggers to escalate care. METHODS: Analysis of emergency medical admissions in two acute hospitals (York Hospital (YH) and Northern Lincolnshire and Goole NHS Foundation Trust hospitals (NH)) in England. Twenty per cent were randomly assigned to have delirium. RESULTS: The number of emergency admissions (YH: 35584; NH: 35795), mortality (YH: 5.7%; NH: 5.5%), index NEWS (YH: 2.5; NH: 2.1) and numbers of NEWS recorded (YH: 879193; NH: 884072) were similar in each hospital. The mean number of patients with medium level alerts per day increased from 55.3 (NEWS) to 69.5 (NEWS2), a 25.7% increase in YH and 64.1 (NEWS) to 77.4 (NEWS2), a 20.7% increase in NH. The mean number of patients with high level alerts per day increased from 27.3 (NEWS) to 34.4 (NEWS2), a 26.0% increase in YH and 29.9 (NEWS) to 37.7 (NEWS2), a 26.1% increase in NH. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of delirium in NEWS2 will have a substantial increase in medium and high level alerts in hospitalised emergency medical patients. Rigorous evaluation of NEWS2 is required before widespread implementation because the extent to which staff can cope with this increase without adverse consequences remains unknown.

A prospective study of consecutive emergency medical admissions to compare a novel automated computer-aided mortality risk score and clinical judgement of patient mortality risk.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the performance of a validated automatic computer-aided risk of mortality (CARM) score versus medical judgement in predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality for patients following emergency medical admission. DESIGN: A prospective study. SETTING: Consecutive emergency medical admissions in York hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Elderly medical admissions in one ward were assigned a risk of death at the first post-take ward round by consultant staff over a 2-week period. The consultant medical staff used the same variables to assign a risk of death to the patient as the CARM (age, sex, National Early Warning Score and blood test results) but also had access to the clinical history, examination findings and any immediately available investigations such as ECGs. The performance of the CARM versus consultant medical judgement was compared using the c-statistic and the positive predictive value (PPV). RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality was 31.8% (130/409). For patients with complete blood test results, the c-statistic for CARM was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.69 to 0.81) versus 0.72 (95% CI: 0.66 to 0.78) for medical judgements (p=0.28). For patients with at least one missing blood test result, the c-statistics were similar (medical judgements 0.70 (95% CI: 0.60 to 0.81) vs CARM 0.70 (95% CI: 0.59 to 0.80)). At a 10% mortality risk, the PPV for CARM was higher than medical judgements in patients with complete blood test results, 62.0% (95% CI: 51.2 to 71.9) versus 49.2% (95% CI: 39.8 to 58.5) but not when blood test results were missing, 50.0% (95% CI: 24.7 to 75.3) versus 53.3% (95% CI: 34.3 to 71.7). CONCLUSIONS: CARM is comparable with medical judgements in discriminating in-hospital mortality following emergency admission to an elderly care ward. CARM may have a promising role in supporting medical judgements in determining the patient's risk of death in hospital. Further evaluation of CARM in routine practice is required.

Visual guidance of landing behaviour when stepping down to a new level.

When stepping down from one level to another, the leading limb has to arrest downward momentum of the body and subsequently receive and safely support bodyweight before level walking can begin. Such step downs are performed over a wide range of heights and predicting when and where contact between the landing limb and the lower level will be made is likely a critical factor. To determine if visual feedback obtained after movement initiation is habitually used in guiding landing behaviour, the present study determined whether pre-landing kinematics and the mechanics of landing would be modulated according to the type of visual feedback available during the stepping down phase. Ten healthy participants (32.3 +/- 7.9 years) stepped, from a standing position, down from three different heights onto a forceplatform, either coming immediately to rest or proceeding directly to walking across the laboratory. Repeated trials were undertaken under habitual vision conditions or with vision blurred or occluded 2-3 s prior to movement initiation. Pre-landing kinematics were assessed by determining, for the instant of landing, lead-limb knee and ankle angle, stepping distance, forwards positioning of the body CM within the base of support and the forwards and downwards body CM velocity. Landing mechanics for the initial contact period were characterized using lead limb vertical loading and stiffness, and trail limb un-weighting. When vision was occluded movement time, ankle plantarflexion and knee flexion were significantly increased compared to that determined for habitual vision, whereas forwards body CM positioning and velocity, vertical loading and stiffness, and trail limb un-weighting, were significantly reduced (p < 0.05). Similar adaptations were observed under blurred conditions, although to a lesser extent. Most variables were significantly affected by stepping task and step height. Subjects likely reduced forwards CM position and velocity at instant of landing, in order to keep the CM well away from the anterior border of the base of support, presumably to ensure boundary margins of safety were high should landing occur sooner or later than expected. The accompanying increase in ankle plantarflexion at instant of landing, and increase in single limb support time, suggests that subjects tended to probe for the ground with their lead limb under modified vision conditions. They also had more bodyweight on the trail limb at the end of the initial contact period and as a consequence had a prolonged weight transfer time. These findings indicate that under blurred or occluded vision conditions subjects adopted a cautious strategy where by they 'sat back' on their trail limb and used their lead limb to probe for the ground. Hence, they did not fully commit to weight transfer until somatosensory feedback from the lead limb confirmed they had safely made contact. The effect of blurring vision was not identical to occluding vision, and led to several important differences between these conditions consistent with the use of impoverished visual information on depth. These findings indicate that online vision is customarily used to regulate landing behaviour when stepping down.

Gait termination on a declined surface in trans-femoral amputees: Impact of using microprocessor-controlled limb system.

BACKGROUND: Walking down ramps is a demanding task for transfemoral-amputees and terminating gait on ramps is even more challenging because of the requirement to maintain a stable limb so that it can do the necessary negative mechanical work on the centre-of-mass in order to arrest (dissipate) forward/downward velocity. We determined how the use of a microprocessor-controlled limb system (simultaneous control over hydraulic resistances at ankle and knee) affected the negative mechanical work done by each limb when transfemoral-amputees terminated gait during ramp descent. METHODS: Eight transfemoral-amputees completed planned gait terminations (stopping on prosthesis) on a 5-degree ramp from slow and customary walking speeds, with the limb's microprocessor active or inactive. When active the limb operated in its 'ramp-descent' mode and when inactive the knee and ankle devices functioned at constant default levels. Negative limb work, determined as the integral of the negative mechanical (external) limb power during the braking phase, was compared across speeds and microprocessor conditions. FINDINGS: Negative work done by each limb increased with speed (p < 0.001), and on the prosthetic limb it was greater when the microprocessor was active compared to inactive (p = 0.004). There was no change in work done across microprocessor conditions on the intact limb (p = 0.35). INTERPRETATION: Greater involvement of the prosthetic limb when the limb system was active indicates its ramp-descent mode effectively altered the hydraulic resistances at the ankle and knee. Findings highlight participants became more assured using their prosthetic limb to arrest centre-of-mass velocity.

The National Early Warning Score and its subcomponents recorded within ±24 h of emergency medical admission are poor predictors of hospital-acquired acute kidney injury.

Hospital-acquired acute kidney injury (H-AKI) is a common cause of avoidable morbidity and mortality. Therefore, in the current study, we investigated whether vital signs data from patients, as defined by a National Early Warning Score (NEWS), can predict H-AKI following emergency admission to hospital. We analysed all emergency admissions (n=33,608) to York Hospital with NEWS data over a 24-month period. Here, we report the area under the curve (AUC) for logistic regression models that used the index NEWS (model A0), plus age and sex (A1), plus subcomponents of NEWS (A2) and two-way interactions (A3), and similarly for maximum NEWS (models B0,B1,B2,B3). Of the total emergency admissions, 4.05% (1,361/33,608) had H-AKI. Models using the index NEWS had lower AUCs (0.59-0.68) than models using the maximum NEWS AUCs (0.75-0.77). The maximum NEWS model (B3) was more sensitive than the index NEWS model (A0) (67.60% vs 19.84%) but identified twice as many cases as being at risk of H-AKI (9581 vs 4099) at a NEWS of 5. Based on these results, we suggest that the index NEWS is a poor predictor of H-AKI. The maximum NEWS is a better predictor but appears to be unfeasible because it is only knowable in retrospect and is associated with a substantial increase in workload, albeit with improved sensitivity.

Multifocal spectacles increase variability in toe clearance and risk of tripping in the elderly.

PURPOSE: Epidemiologic studies have indicated that elderly people who wear multifocal spectacles have an increased risk of tripping, particularly on stairs. Yet no studies have experimentally examined how wearing multifocal spectacles affects stair and step negotiation. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of wearing multifocal compared with single-distance vision spectacles on minimum toe clearance and risk of tripping during step negotiation in the elderly. METHODS: Nineteen healthy subjects (mean age, 71.4 years) performed a single step up to a new level (heights, 7.5, 15, and 22 cm) while wearing multifocal (bifocals and progressive addition lenses) or single-distance vision spectacles. Minimum horizontal and vertical toe clearance were assessed by analyzing data collected with a five-camera, three-dimensional motion-analysis system. RESULTS: There was no difference in mean minimum toe clearance in subjects when wearing multifocal compared with single-distance vision spectacles. However, there was greater within-subject variability in vertical toe clearance when wearing multifocal spectacles (variance ratio, 1.53; P = 0.0004). Subjects were also significantly more likely to trip when wearing multifocal compared with single-vision spectacles (one-sided Fisher's exact test P = 0.025). CONCLUSIONS: Because of increased within-subject variability in vertical toe clearance when wearing multifocal spectacles, elderly individuals may be at greater risk of falling when negotiating steps and stairs if they do not also consistently increase margins of safety (mean vertical toe clearance). This suggests that some elderly who are at high risk of falling may benefit from wearing single-distance vision rather than multifocal spectacles when walking.

Falls in older people: effects of age and blurring vision on the dynamics of stepping.

PURPOSE: The risk of falling increases dramatically with age, and visual impairment is known to be an important risk factor. Therefore, it is highly pertinent to assess the effects of age and vision on the performance of everyday tasks linked to falling, such as stepping from one level to another. METHODS: Nine young (age, 26 +/- 4 years) and ten elderly (age, 72 +/- 5 years) subjects performed a stepping-up task of three different heights. Their stepping strategies with blurred and optimally corrected vision were compared. Center of mass (CM), center of pressure (CP) dynamics (in the mediolateral and anteroposterior directions), and foot clearance parameters were determined, and statistical regression modeling was applied. RESULTS: Elderly subjects spent 20% more time (P = 0.03) than young subjects during double support and they had reduced anteroposterior CM-CP divergence (P < 0.001) during double support and slower anteroposterior (P < 0.001) and mediolateral (P = 0.002) CM velocities during initiation of movement and single limb support. Blur caused similar adaptations, such as increased toe clearance, across both age groups, though mediolateral (ML) CM-CP divergence in elderly subjects was significantly more reduced than in young subjects (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Findings indicate, in general, that older subjects used a more cautious and controlled stepping strategy. However, the lack of significant age differences in toe clearance suggests this strategy was mainly aimed at reducing ML instability rather than increasing margins of safety regarding toe clearance.

The effects of blurring vision on medio-lateral balance during stepping up or down to a new level in the elderly.

Visual impairment is an important risk factor for falls, but relatively little is known about how it affects stair negotiation. The present study determined how medio-lateral (ML) dynamics of stepping and single limb support stability when stepping up or down to a new level were affected by blurring the vision of healthy elderly subjects. Twelve elderly subjects (72.3 +/- 4.2 years) were analysed performing single steps up and single steps down to a new level (7.2, 14.4 and 21.6 cm). Stepping dynamics were assessed by determining the ML ground reaction force (GRF) impulse, lateral position of the centre of mass (CM) relative to the supporting foot (average horizontal ML distance between CM and CP during single support) and movement time. Stability was determined as the rms fluctuation in ML position of the centre of pressure (CP) during single support. Differences between optimal and blurred visual conditions were analysed using a random effects model. Duration of double and single support, and the ML GRF impulse were significantly greater when vision was blurred, while the average CM-CP ML distance and ML stability was reduced. ML stability decreased with increasing step height and was further decreased when stepping down than when stepping up. These findings indicate that ML balance during stepping up and down was significantly affected by blurring vision. In particular, single limb support stability was considerably reduced, especially so during stepping down. The findings highlight the importance of accurate visual feedback in the precise control of stepping dynamics when stepping up or down to a new level, and suggest that correcting common visual problems, such as uncorrected refractive errors and cataract may be an important intervention strategy in improving how the elderly negotiate stairs.

Does head extension and flexion increase postural instability in elderly subjects when visual information is kept constant?

The present study determined the effects of flexing and extending the head on the postural stability and mean anterior-posterior (A-P) center of mass (CM) position during upright stance in the elderly. To ensure visual input to stability was not a confounding variable, visual information was kept as constant as possible for all head positions. Twelve healthy elderly subjects (72.3 +/- 4.7 years) were asked to stand stationary on a single force-platform. Postural stability (assessed using the rms A-P excursion of the center of pressure (CP)) was determined for standing with the head erect, and with the head flexed and extended. The vestibular contribution to postural stability becomes increasingly important under challenging conditions, so to highlight the effects of vestibular system input, measurements of postural stability under conditions where visual and somatosensory inputs were disrupted were included. Changes in the mean A-P CM position when tilting the head were assessed by determining changes in the mean A-P location of the CP from standing with the head erect. Compared to standing with the head erect and looking straight ahead, postural stability was reduced when the head was flexed or extended (P < 0.01). Changes in mean A-P CM position were only significant when standing with the head flexed (P < 0.05). This suggests that increases in postural instability with the head tilted from the erect position may be in part due to mechanical perturbation rather than solely vestibular disruption.