Retirement migration counties in the southeastern United States: geographic, demographic, and economic correlates.

This article is a brief empirical attempt to identify rural areas in the Southeast United States that have consistently attracted older migrants since 1950 and to ascertain the social, demographic, and geographic characteristics of these areas of destination that differentiate them from otherwise (initially) similar areas. These counties are followed over the successive censuses from 1950 through 1990, identifying those that have consistently experienced elderly in-migration at a rate substantially greater than the overall level. These retirement counties are concentrated in Florida, on the fringes of or adjacent to metropolitan areas or in mountain and coastal locations. The article presents regression analysis of geographic, demographic, and economic/structural correlates of migration. This analysis suggests that retirees are attracted to coastal locations whose existing populations have consistently achieved some measure of prosperity and are not dissimilar from the retirees themselves.

Amenity retirement migration process: a model and preliminary evidence.

A heuristic model of the retirement migration process was developed and explored using survey data from 586 migrants to western North Carolina. Five distinct subgroups were investigated: those who went from part- to full-time residency; those who thought about not migrating; individuals who migrated, remained in the labor force for a short period, and then retired; people who made two retirement migrations; and destination-selecting versus destination-specific migrants.

Health care corporatization and the employment conditions of nurses.

There has been little study of the impact of the recent transition of ownership of hospitals and nursing homes, from voluntary and public to corporate, on the employment of nursing staffs. Non-state or non-federally owned hospitals and nursing homes in Florida were examined with regard to salaries, benefits, career advancement opportunities, and vacancy and turnover rates of the nursing staff. While salary levels were influenced primarily by local wage markets, significant differences were found in the benefit packages, career opportunities, staffing ratios, and vacancy and turnover rates among for-profit, not-for-profit, and publicly-owned facilities. Nurse administrators of corporate hospitals and nursing homes can lower the costs of high turnover rates in their nursing staffs by exploring improvements in benefit plans and career opportunities offered to their employees.

Epidemiologic transition theory and aging: Hispanic populations of North America and the Caribbean.

As the forces of social and economic development combine with epidemiological transitions, population aging will continue to impact world health status and the provision of health services. Epidemiology provides an interdisciplinary link to the traditional study of population change by enhancing the demographic parameters of fertility, life expectancy, and migration, with specific measures of mortality and morbidity in order better to predict the pace and concentration of aging within a population. In this article, the authors examine three theoretical models of epidemiological transition and offer historical (1950-1995) and projection (1995-2050) data for the development patterns in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. They contrast trends in fertility, life expectancy ratios, and gender differences in these countries with the Hispanic population of the United States. Central to this study are the cause of death statistics presented to identify the model occurring in each country. Shifts in the gender mix at older ages are presented due to the decline in fertility and death associated with childbearing years and the timing of the transition from high mortality to infectious disease to high mortality from chronic and age-related disease.

The role of long distance migration in the rural renaissance, in gentrification, and in growth of the Sunbelt.

The author "has examined trends in interstate migration during the 1970s for the four regions of the United States and, in particular, explored the relationship of this migration with nonmetropolitan expansion and the return to the city movement. The data show that the former trend is a very real one which has persisted throughout the decade and that population growth through interstate migration in nonmetropolitan America is, on balance, the result of nonblacks moving to the South from elsewhere in the nation. Except in the West, central cities continue to experience substantial losses of population through interstate migration. Interstate migration continues to be directed toward suburbs, and is especially vigorous in the West." Data are from the March 1975 and March 1979 Current Population Surveys.

Demographic aging in the United States: implications for population and income redistribution to the year 2000.

"The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of a prolonged period of sustained low fertility upon shifts in the population distribution of the United States among Department of Energy (DOE) regions." The authors also examine the impact of demographic aging on income distribution up to the year 2000 using the assumptions made in the Series III population projections prepared by the U.S. Bureau of the Census in 1977. It is noted that migration will emerge as the primary agent for internal population redistribution.

The role of region and coastal location in explaining metropolitan population growth differentials during the 1980s.

"There has recently been some speculation that the physical location of a community on the coast plays an equal or even more important role than does region in terms of the importance of geography upon population growth. This paper explores in empirical fashion the relative importance of coastal siting, as well as location, in the South or West, along with variables measuring economic base and demographic structure in explaining the relative rates of population growth in American metropolitan areas from 1980 to 1990."

An analysis of population growth rates within typological categories of small southern cities.

"The research reported here presents a typology of small cities, as well as an analysis of the causes of population growth within city types. For this research eighty-eight incorporated cities and towns in the South Atlantic and East South Central census divisions [of the United States] were chosen for investigation, all having 1960 populations between 10,000 and 50,000." Path models are constructed for each city class using the decennial rate of population growth between 1960 and 1970 as the endogenous variable and net migration and employment changes as intermediate variables.

On demographic aging, inflation, and real wages: some evidence from the Netherlands.

PIP: This discussion represents a 1st step towards providing some insight into the economic effects of the phenomenon of declining or stationary population size. The findings presented deal with the level of economic well-being as measured by real per capita consumption for the Netherlands whose demographic behavior and prospects now more or less typify the remainder of Europe, with the possible exception of West Germany, where fertility is particularly low. The task of this discussion is to determine the effects of declining population growth on per capital consumption. In order to be meaningful, such a measure must allow for the possible effects of population growth differentials upon price levels. The model which is used in this research specifically permits an evaluation of the amount of inflation (measured by comparative levels of wages and productivity) between alternative demographic scenarios. The official population projections for the Netherlands present 2 alternative views of potential demographic evolution in the country (alternative A and alternative B). International migration is assumed to be equal to zero and the level of mortality, with the exception of slight improvements for infants and older women, is fixed in both cases at 1971-74 levels. Overall expectation of life at birth rises from 71.2 (1971-74) to 71.4 (1985) for males and from 77.0 to 77.8 years for females in these projections. The only respect with which these alternative scenarios differ is in the assumed pattern of fertility. Alternative A is based upon an ultimate completed family size of about 1.9; alternative B incorporates a family size of about 1.5. 2 additional projections were prepared for this research: alternative C and alternative D. The 4 population projections are summarized in a table. A table shows the projected level of per capita consumption, in 1970 guilders, under the 4 alternative scenarios. By the end of the projection period, each of the alternatives (A and B) which lead to a declining population have begun to experience diminishing levels of real consumption per head. This result does not occur for those alternatives (C and D) where population continues to grow. This result is due to the high level of price increases experienced under alternatives A and B from 2000 to 2020. The growing populations found in alternatives C and D continue to experience increases in the level of real per capita consumption throughout the projection period.^ieng

Recent trends and future prospects of urban-rural migration in Europe.

PIP: Recent trends in migration between urban and rural areas in Europe are examined, based on a review of the recent literature. The focus is on differences among countries and on the demographic, social, economic, and environmental factors that affect such migration. The importance of rural-urban migration for future changes in spatial distribution is explored.^ieng

Recent trends and future prospects for urban-rural migration in Europe.

Patterns in population movement in Europe are described. "This paper will review the findings of relevant studies...to determine the state of our knowledge regarding the magnitude of, and differences in the urban-rural or metropolitan-non-metropolitan mobility of the population. In doing so, the paper will touch upon the influences of demographic, social, economic and environmental variables."

Alternative demographic futures and the composition of the demand for labor, by industry and by occupation.

PIP: An effort is made in this discussion to demonstrate the effects of varying rates of population growth upon the industrial and occupational compositions of demand for labor. The discussion extends previous research activity that has demonstrated that changes in the composition of consumer demand are insensitive to alternative rates of population growth. The discussion begins with a replication of projections of consumer demand patterns under 3 alternative population projections and then transforms these results into projections of final demand by industrial sector, demand for labor by industrial sector, and demand for labor by occupational group. Projections of US household composition patterns are made for the 1980-2020 period. The size and composition of the population and households are derived from US Bureau of the Census Series 1, 2, and 3 projections. From these, projections of size and composition of the labor force are derived utilizing Bureau of Labor Statistics' to 1990. Projections of average earnings per worker, in the aggregate, are taken from Bureau of Economic Analysis projections. The results show that both labor force compositions are relatively insensitive to varying demographic patterns. The industrial composition reflects a continuation of already existing trends, but the occupational composition shows some tendency to move away from professional and highly skilled blue collar occupations and towards service and clerical occupations. The results contain a variety of implications for policy considerations concerning higher education and the proper functioning of the labor market. The relative decline in the number of professional and managerial workers, the groups who are most likely to possess a university degree, suggests that the prospects for conventional higher education might be even less bright than would be suggested by an inspection of trends in the size of the 18-24 year old population. Some mitigation of this possibly adverse trend is possible if the system of higher education proves sufficiently flexible to provide more occupational and retraining services than is currently the case. The findings also suggest the need for greater attention to be directed to the design of training programs intended to meet the need for specific occupations. Another problem is the adequacy of labor supply. A possible response to the potential supply-demand imbalances is a reconsideration of current immigration policies in order to allow larger numbers of migrants to enter the labor force.^ieng

Economic and fiscal implications of aging for subnational American governments.

This article begins with a brief review of the extensive literature dealing with the macroeconomic consequences of population aging in industrialized societies and places the question in the context of the political and economic framework of the United States. Next, we move to the fiscal ramifications of population aging for subnational units of government. The varying demographic sources of aging are then introduced and their economic implications are reviewed. The role of population aging within the context of subnational fiscal impacts is first examined by reviewing patterns of change in demand for state-government-provided public goods and services associated with an older population. These include primarily health care and income security. These considerations on the expenditure side are then extended to substate government, where primary and secondary education are easily the largest component of public budgets. Finally, the implications of demographic change on the revenue side of state and local public finances are considered, including potential impacts on sales, property, and income tax receipts.

Demographic and socioeconomic aspects of elderly migration in the 1980s.

The availability of data from the Current Population Survey for each year makes it possible to monitor the migration behavior of the population on a year-to-year basis and facilitates efforts to detect changes in long-standing patterns of behavior. The data used in this article come from the published reports summarizing the results of the March administration of the Current Population Survey over a decade, and, in general, deal with the movement of persons during the 12-month interval immediately preceding the survey. Trends and changes in some of the principal aspects of migration behavior among the elderly are reviewed and summarized, focusing on the demographic, social, geographic, and economic dimensions. Also considered are differences in migration behavior along these dimensions from a temporal perspective as well as in comparison to the migration behavior of the younger population. When possible, the article provides insight on behavioral differences among the various age categories within the older population, differentiating between the youngest and oldest components of the group and recognizing the striking differences between the youngest and oldest members of the older population in nearly all aspects of the migration process.

Return migration of the elderly in the USA: 1955-1960 and 1965-1970.

This paper reports on changes in the volume and rate of return migration among the population aged 65 and over in the USA for the periods 1955-1960 and 1965-1970. Based on the earlier findings of Long and Hansen and of Eldridge, it is not surprising to find that return migration is not primarily a movement of persons returning to their place of birth to retire. Only about 5% of all return migrants in the USA are of retirement age. Return migration is more important in the migration stream of the elderly than in the total migration stream, and the rate of return migration increased at a greater rate for older persons than it did for the population as a whole.

Determinants of interstate migration: differences between elderly and nonelderly movers.

This paper analyzes the determinants of interstate inmigration and outmigration for persons aged 5 to 54 and for persons aged 55 and over. The paper finds several similarities between the sets of migration determinants, but several potentially important differences emerge as well. Perhaps most striking among these are that states with high earnings of workers tend to have high rates of outmigration of elderly adults and that states with high levels of unemployment have high levels of inmigration of elderly people--these relationships are generally the opposite of those found for the nonelderly. This suggests the possibility of continued divergence in the spatial distribution of younger and older populations and offers the potential for the continued reallocation of resources between states (through the federal government) to pay for programs earmarked for the older population.

Unanswered questions and new directions in research on elderly migration: economic and demographic perspectives.

The availability of data from the 1990 Census and the Retirement and Health Survey will afford researchers an unparalleled opportunity to study elderly migration from several perspectives. This article focuses on economic and demographic issues. Census data will continue to serve the role of providing small area data on flows and will permit further disaggregation of behavioral differences according to age, marital status, and household relationship. They will also permit disaggregation according to the economic status of individuals and their households which, coupled with aggregate data on places of origin and destination, will facilitate comparison between such areas. The RHS data will go a long way to investigate questions thought to lie at the heart of migration behavior of older persons, but which have been difficult or impossible to study. Central to such questions will be the availability of a migration history, which will permit research on the interaction of migration behavior with critical life-course events such as retirement and the loss of a spouse.

Fertility differentials in rural Sierra Leone: demographic and socioeconomic effects.

PIP: Multiple regression analysis with an ordinary least squares model was used to examine the demographic and socioeconomic determinants of fertility in rural Sierra Leone among a sample of 2000 women aged 15-49 years and 680 husbands in 1979. Size of place of current residence was of particular interest. The primary sampling unit (PSU) was proportionately sampled and systematically included chiefdoms for the Dasse, Kamajei, Kori, and Kowa in Moyamba District. Villages and towns were also sampled in the 3-stage probability sample. A wide selection of variables were collected; 11 variables were used in the analysis: children ever born as the dependent variable; husband's tribal affiliation, his religion, and size of place of current residence as background variables; educational levels of the respondent and her husband, reported annual household income, and wife's occupation; and age at marriage, infant and child mortality, and desired family size. The age structure was similar and small sample sizes for place limit the use of age grouping. Specification of each variable is given. The results reveal that in the full equation with all 11 variables, only size of place of residence is statistically significant (p = .10) and positively affecting fertility. Only opportunity cost to the wife (women working in nonagricultural jobs and educational attainment) negatively influences fertility as expected. Income effects are insignificant and in the wrong direction. Demographic influences are in the expected direction. In the analysis by size of place (small, 0-499; intermediate, 500-1999; and large, 2000), variance is demonstrated in the importance of explanatory variables. Background variables have coefficients hovering around 0. Opportunity cost (nonagricultural employment) is strong,and significantly negative only in large places. Household's infant and child mortality is significant and positive in all places. Desired family size is similar (positive and significant), but a stronger relationship occurs in larger places. Age at marriage is important only in large places, and child mortality less important. Results are similar to Snyder's but differ in that income does not have an effect, and similar to Ketkar's in finding no consistent relationship between education and fertility. Larger places have higher fertility levels, but respond to different influences, perhaps due to filtering of urban type determinants into large rural places.^ieng