Use of chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, and ovarian cancer: an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There are few data on international variation in chemotherapy use, despite it being a key treatment type for some patients with cancer. Here, we aimed to examine the presence and size of such variation. METHODS: This population-based study used data from Norway, the four UK nations (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales), eight Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan), and two Australian states (New South Wales and Victoria). Patients aged 15-99 years diagnosed with cancer in eight different sites (oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer), with no other primary cancer diagnosis occurring from within the 5 years before to 1 year after the index cancer diagnosis or during the study period were included in the study. We examined variation in chemotherapy use from 31 days before to 365 days after diagnosis and time to its initiation, alongside related variation in patient group differences. Information was obtained from cancer registry records linked to clinical or patient management system data or hospital administration data. Random-effects meta-analyses quantified interjurisdictional variation using 95% prediction intervals (95% PIs). FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017, of 893 461 patients with a new diagnosis of one of the studied cancers, 111 569 (12·5%) did not meet the inclusion criteria, and 781 892 were included in the analysis. There was large interjurisdictional variation in chemotherapy use for all studied cancers, with wide 95% PIs: 47·5 to 81·2 (pooled estimate 66·4%) for ovarian cancer, 34·9 to 59·8 (47·2%) for oesophageal cancer, 22·3 to 62·3 (40·8%) for rectal cancer, 25·7 to 55·5 (39·6%) for stomach cancer, 17·2 to 56·3 (34·1%) for pancreatic cancer, 17·9 to 49·0 (31·4%) for lung cancer, 18·6 to 43·8 (29·7%) for colon cancer, and 3·5 to 50·7 (16·1%) for liver cancer. For patients with stage 3 colon cancer, the interjurisdictional variation was greater than that for all patients with colon cancer (95% PI 38·5 to 78·4; 60·1%). Patients aged 85-99 years had 20-times lower odds of chemotherapy use than those aged 65-74 years, with very large interjurisdictional variation in this age difference (odds ratio 0·05; 95% PI 0·01 to 0·19). There was large variation in median time to first chemotherapy (from diagnosis date) by cancer site, with substantial interjurisdictional variation, particularly for rectal cancer (95% PI -15·5 to 193·9 days; pooled estimate 89·2 days). Patients aged 85-99 years had slightly shorter median time to first chemotherapy compared with those aged 65-74 years, consistently between jurisdictions (-3·7 days, 95% PI -7·6 to 0·1). INTERPRETATION: Large variation in use and time to chemotherapy initiation were observed between the participating jurisdictions, alongside large and variable age group differences in chemotherapy use. To guide efforts to improve patient outcomes, the underlying reasons for these patterns need to be established. FUNDING: International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, The Cancer Society of New Zealand, National Health Service England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, DG Health and Social Care Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Public Health Wales NHS Trust).

Use of radiotherapy in patients with oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, and ovarian cancer: an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There is little evidence on variation in radiotherapy use in different countries, although it is a key treatment modality for some patients with cancer. Here we aimed to examine such variation. METHODS: This population-based study used data from Norway, the four UK nations (England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales), nine Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan), and two Australian states (New South Wales and Victoria). Patients aged 15-99 years diagnosed with cancer in eight different sites (oesophageal, stomach, colon, rectal, liver, pancreatic, lung, or ovarian cancer), with no other primary cancer diagnosis occurring within the 5 years before to 1 year after the index cancer diagnosis or during the study period were included in the study. We examined variation in radiotherapy use from 31 days before to 365 days after diagnosis and time to its initiation, alongside related variation in patient group differences. Information was obtained from cancer registry records linked to clinical or patient management system data, or hospital administration data. Random-effects meta-analyses quantified interjurisdictional variation using 95% prediction intervals (95% PIs). FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2017, of 902 312 patients with a new diagnosis of one of the studied cancers, 115 357 (12·8%) did not meet inclusion criteria, and 786,955 were included in the analysis. There was large interjurisdictional variation in radiotherapy use, with wide 95% PIs: 17·8 to 82·4 (pooled estimate 50·2%) for oesophageal cancer, 35·5 to 55·2 (45·2%) for rectal cancer, 28·6 to 54·0 (40·6%) for lung cancer, and 4·6 to 53·6 (19·0%) for stomach cancer. For patients with stage 2-3 rectal cancer, interjurisdictional variation was greater than that for all patients with rectal cancer (95% PI 37·0 to 84·6; pooled estimate 64·2%). Radiotherapy use was infrequent but variable in patients with pancreatic (95% PI 1·7 to 16·5%), liver (1·8 to 11·2%), colon (1·6 to 5·0%), and ovarian (0·8 to 7·6%) cancer. Patients aged 85-99 years had three-times lower odds of radiotherapy use than those aged 65-74 years, with substantial interjurisdictional variation in this age difference (odds ratio [OR] 0·38; 95% PI 0·20-0·73). Women had slightly lower odds of radiotherapy use than men (OR 0·88, 95% PI 0·77-1·01). There was large variation in median time to first radiotherapy (from diagnosis date) by cancer site, with substantial interjurisdictional variation (eg, oesophageal 95% PI 11·3 days to 112·8 days; pooled estimate 62·0 days; rectal 95% PI 34·7 days to 77·3 days; pooled estimate 56·0 days). Older patients had shorter median time to radiotherapy with appreciable interjurisdictional variation (-9·5 days in patients aged 85-99 years vs 65-74 years, 95% PI -26·4 to 7·4). INTERPRETATION: Large interjurisdictional variation in both use and time to radiotherapy initiation were observed, alongside large and variable age differences. To guide efforts to improve patient outcomes, underlying reasons for these differences need to be established. FUNDING: International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (funded by the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, The Cancer Society of New Zealand, National Health Service England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, DG Health and Social Care Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Public Health Wales NHS Trust).

Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2024.

BACKGROUND: Cancer surveillance data are essential to help understand where gaps exist and progress is being made in cancer control. We sought to summarize the expected impact of cancer in Canada in 2024, with projections of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer by sex and province or territory for all ages combined. METHODS: We obtained data on new cancer cases (i.e., incidence, 1984-2019) and deaths from cancer (i.e., mortality, 1984-2020) from the Canadian Cancer Registry and Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database, respectively. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2024 for 23 types of cancer, overall, by sex, and by province or territory. We calculated age-standardized rates using data from the 2011 Canadian standard population. RESULTS: In 2024, the number of new cancer cases and deaths from cancer are expected to reach 247 100 and 88 100, respectively. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) are projected to decrease slightly from previous years for both males and females, with higher rates among males (ASIR 562.2 per 100 000 and ASMR 209.6 per 100 000 among males; ASIR 495.9 per 100 000 and ASMR 152.8 per 100 000 among females). The ASIRs and ASMRs of several common cancers are projected to continue to decrease (i.e., lung, colorectal, and prostate cancer), while those of several others are projected to increase (i.e., liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer, kidney cancer, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma). INTERPRETATION: Although the overall incidence of cancer and associated mortality are declining, new cases and deaths in Canada are expected to increase in 2024, largely because of the growing and aging population. Efforts in prevention, screening, and treatment have reduced the impact of some cancers, but these short-term projections highlight the potential effect of cancer on people and health care systems in Canada.

Revisiting the Calculation for a Novel Measure of Average Lifespan Shortened: Real-World Examples From Cervical and Ovarian Cancers in Alberta, Canada, 2000 - 2020.

In this technical note, we primarily demonstrate the computation of confidence limits for a novel measure of average lifespan shortened (ALSS). We identified women who had died from cervical and ovarian cancer between 2000 and 2020 from the Alberta cancer registry. Years of life lost (YLL) was calculated using the national life tables of Canada. We estimated the ALSS as a ratio of YLL in relation to the expected lifespan. We computed the confidence limits of the measure using various approaches, including the normal distribution, gamma distribution, and bootstrap method. The new ALSS measure shows a modest gain in lifespan of women, particularly women with ovarian cancer, over the study period.

Health-Related and Behavioral Factors Associated With Lung Cancer Stage at Diagnosis: Observations From Alberta's Tomorrow Project.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in Canada, with stage at diagnosis among the top predictors of lung cancer survival. Identifying factors associated with stage at diagnosis can help reduce lung cancer morbidity and mortality. This study used data from a prospective cohort study of adults living in Alberta, Canada to examine factors associated with lung cancer stage at diagnosis. METHODS: This cohort study used data from adults aged 35-69 years enrolled in Alberta's Tomorrow Project. Partial Proportional Odds models were used to examine associations between sociodemographic characteristics and health-related factors and subsequent lung cancer stage at diagnosis. RESULTS: A total of 221 participants (88 males and 133 females) developed lung cancer over the study period. Nearly half (48.0%) of lung cancers were diagnosed at a late stage (stage IV), whereas 30.8 % and 21.3% were diagnosed at stage I/II and III, respectively. History of sunburn in the past year was protective against late-stage lung cancer diagnosis (odds ratio (OR) .40, P=.005). In males, a higher number of lifetime prostate specific antigen tests was associated with reduced odds of late-stage lung cancer diagnosis (odds ratio .66, P=.02). Total recreational physical activity was associated with increased odds of late-stage lung cancer diagnosis (OR 1.08, P=.01). DISCUSSION: Lung cancer stage at diagnosis remains a crucial determinant of prognosis. This study identified important factors associated with lung cancer stage at diagnosis. Study findings can inform targeted cancer prevention initiatives towards improving early detection of lung cancer and lung cancer survival.

Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2022.

BACKGROUND: Regular cancer surveillance is crucial for understanding where progress is being made and where more must be done. We sought to provide an overview of the expected burden of cancer in Canada in 2022. METHODS: We obtained data on new cancer incidence from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1984-1991) and Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2018). Mortality data (1984-2019) were obtained from the Canadian Vital Statistics - Death Database. We projected cancer incidence and mortality counts and rates to 2022 for 22 cancer types by sex and province or territory. Rates were age standardized to the 2011 Canadian standard population. RESULTS: An estimated 233 900 new cancer cases and 85 100 cancer deaths are expected in Canada in 2022. We expect the most commonly diagnosed cancers to be lung overall (30 000), breast in females (28 600) and prostate in males (24 600). We also expect lung cancer to be the leading cause of cancer death, accounting for 24.3% of all cancer deaths, followed by colorectal (11.0%), pancreatic (6.7%) and breast cancers (6.5%). Incidence and mortality rates are generally expected to be higher in the eastern provinces of Canada than the western provinces. INTERPRETATION: Although overall cancer rates are declining, the number of cases and deaths continues to climb, owing to population growth and the aging population. The projected high burden of lung cancer indicates a need for increased tobacco control and improvements in early detection and treatment. Success in breast and colorectal cancer screening and treatment likely account for the continued decline in their burden. The limited progress in early detection and new treatments for pancreatic cancer explains why it is expected to be the third leading cause of cancer death in Canada.

International trends in oesophageal cancer survival by histological subtype between 1995 and 2014.

INTRODUCTION: Survival from oesophageal cancer remains poor, even across high-income countries. Ongoing changes in the epidemiology of the disease highlight the need for survival assessments by its two main histological subtypes, adenocarcinoma (AC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). METHODS: The ICBP SURVMARK-2 project, a platform for international comparisons of cancer survival, collected cases of oesophageal cancer diagnosed 1995 to 2014, followed until 31st December 2015, from cancer registries covering seven participating countries with similar access to healthcare (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK). 1-year and 3-year age-standardised net survival alongside incidence rates were calculated by country, subtype, sex, age group and period of diagnosis. RESULTS: 111 894 cases of AC and 73 408 cases of SCC were included in the analysis. Marked improvements in survival were observed over the 20-year period in each country, particularly for AC, younger age groups and 1 year after diagnosis. Survival was consistently higher for both subtypes in Australia and Ireland followed by Norway, Denmark, New Zealand, the UK and Canada. During 2010 to 2014, survival was higher for AC compared with SCC, with 1-year survival ranging from 46.9% (Canada) to 54.4% (Ireland) for AC and 39.6% (Denmark) to 53.1% (Australia) for SCC. CONCLUSION: Marked improvements in both oesophageal AC and SCC survival suggest advances in treatment. Less marked improvements 3 years after diagnosis, among older age groups and patients with SCC, highlight the need for further advances in early detection and treatment of oesophageal cancer alongside primary prevention to reduce the overall burden from the disease.

Colon and rectal cancer survival in seven high-income countries 2010-2014: variation by age and stage at diagnosis (the ICBP SURVMARK-2 project).

OBJECTIVES: As part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) SURVMARK-2 project, we provide the most recent estimates of colon and rectal cancer survival in seven high-income countries by age and stage at diagnosis. METHODS: Data from 386 870 patients diagnosed during 2010-2014 from 19 cancer registries in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK) were analysed. 1-year and 5-year net survival from colon and rectal cancer were estimated by stage at diagnosis, age and country, RESULTS: (One1-year) and 5-year net survival varied between (77.1% and 87.5%) 59.1% and 70.9% and (84.8% and 90.0%) 61.6% and 70.9% for colon and rectal cancer, respectively. Survival was consistently higher in Australia, Canada and Norway, with smaller proportions of patients with metastatic disease in Canada and Australia. International differences in (1-year) and 5-year survival were most pronounced for regional and distant colon cancer ranging between (86.0% and 94.1%) 62.5% and 77.5% and (40.7% and 56.4%) 8.0% and 17.3%, respectively. Similar patterns were observed for rectal cancer. Stage distribution of colon and rectal cancers by age varied across countries with marked survival differences for patients with metastatic disease and diagnosed at older ages (irrespective of stage). CONCLUSIONS: Survival disparities for colon and rectal cancer across high-income countries are likely explained by earlier diagnosis in some countries and differences in treatment for regional and distant disease, as well as older age at diagnosis. Differences in cancer registration practice and different staging systems across countries may have impacted the comparisons.

Average Lifespan Shortened due to Stroke in Canada: A Nationwide Descriptive Study From 1990 to 2015.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There are challenges in comparability when using existing life lost measures to examine long-term trends in premature mortality. To address this important issue, we have developed a novel measure termed average lifespan shortened (ALSS). In the present study, we used the ALSS measure to describe temporal changes in premature mortality due to stroke in the Canadian population from 1990 to 2015. METHODS: Mortality data for stroke were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Years of life lost was calculated using Canadian life tables. ALSS was calculated as the ratio of years of life lost in relation to the expected lifespan. RESULTS: Over a 25-year timeframe, the age-standardized rates adjusted to the World Standard Population for deaths from all strokes and stroke types substantially decreased in both sexes. The ALSS measure indicated that men who died of stroke lost 12.1% of their lifespan in 1990 and 11.4% in 2015, whereas these values among women were 11.1% and 10.0%, respectively. Patients with subarachnoid hemorrhagic stroke lost the largest portion whereby both sexes lost about one-third of their lifespan in 1990 and one-fourth in 2015. Men with intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke lost around 18% of their lifespan in 1990 and 14% in 2015 as compared to women who lost about 16% and 12% over the same timeframe. The loss of lifespan for patients with ischemic stroke and other stroke types combined was relatively stable at about 10% throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated a modest improvement in lifespan among patients with stroke in Canada between 1990 and 2015. Our novel ALSS measure provides intuitive interpretation of temporal changes in lifespan among patients with stroke and helps to enhance our understanding of the burden of strokes in the Canadian population.

Premature Mortality Due to Hodgkin Lymphoma, Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma, Multiple Myeloma, and Leukemia in Canada: A Nationwide Analysis From 1980 to 2015.

Recently, we introduced a novel measure of "average life span shortened" (ALSS) to improve comparability of premature mortality over time. In this study, we applied this novel measure to examine trends in premature mortality caused by hematological cancers in Canada from 1980 to 2015. Mortality data for Hodgkin lymphoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, multiple myeloma, and leukemia were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Years of life lost was calculated according to Canadian life tables. ALSS was defined as the ratio between years of life lost and expected life span. Over the study period, age-standardized rates of mortality decreased for all types of hematological cancers. Our new ALSS measure showed favorable trends in premature mortality for all types of hematological cancers among both sexes. For instance, men with non-Hodgkin lymphoma lost an average of 23.7% of their life span in 1980 versus 16.1% in 2015, while women with non-Hodgkin lymphoma lost an average of 21.7% of their life span in 1980 versus 15.5% in 2015. Results from this study showed that patients with hematological cancers experienced prolonged survival over a 35-year period although the magnitude of these life span gains varied by types of hematological cancers.

A comparative analysis: international variation in PET-CT service provision in oncology-an International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore differences in position emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) service provision internationally to further understand the impact variation may have upon cancer services. To identify areas of further exploration for researchers and policymakers to optimize PET-CT services and improve the quality of cancer services. DESIGN: Comparative analysis using data based on pre-defined PET-CT service metrics from PET-CT stakeholders across seven countries. This was further informed via document analysis of clinical indication guidance and expert consensus through round-table discussions of relevant PET-CT stakeholders. Descriptive comparative analyses were produced on use, capacity and indication guidance for PET-CT services between jurisdictions. SETTING: PET-CT services across 21 jurisdictions in seven countries (Australia, Denmark, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK). PARTICIPANTS: None. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): None. RESULTS: PET-CT service provision has grown over the period 2006-2017, but scale of increase in capacity and demand is variable. Clinical indication guidance varied across countries, particularly for small-cell lung cancer staging and the specific acknowledgement of gastric cancer within oesophagogastric cancers. There is limited and inconsistent data capture, coding, accessibility and availability of PET-CT activity across countries studied. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in PET-CT scanner quantity, acquisition over time and guidance upon use exists internationally. There is a lack of routinely captured and accessible PET-CT data across the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership countries due to inconsistent data definitions, data linkage issues, uncertain coverage of data and lack of specific coding. This is a barrier in improving the quality of PET-CT services globally. There needs to be greater, richer data capture of diagnostic and staging tools to facilitate learning of best practice and optimize cancer services.

Exploring variations in ovarian cancer survival by age and stage (ICBP SurvMark-2): A population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: The study aims to evaluate the differences in ovarian cancer survival by age and stage at diagnosis within and across seven high-income countries. METHODS: We analyzed data from 58,161 women diagnosed with ovarian cancer during 2010-2014, followed until 31 December 2015, from 21 population-based cancer registries in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and United Kingdom. Comparisons of 1-year and 3-year age- and stage-specific net survival (NS) between countries were performed using the period analysis approach. RESULTS: Minor variation in the stage distribution was observed between countries, with most women being diagnosed with 'distant' stage (ranging between 64% in Canada and 71% in Norway). The 3-year all-ages NS ranged from 45 to 57% with Australia (56%) and Norway (57%) demonstrating the highest survival. The proportion of women with 'distant' stage was highest for those aged 65-74 and 75-99 years and varied markedly between countries (range:72-80% and 77-87%, respectively). The oldest age group had the lowest 3-year age-specific survival (20-34%), and women aged 65-74 exhibited the widest variation across countries (3-year NS range: 40-60%). Differences in survival between countries were particularly stark for the oldest age group with 'distant' stage (3-year NS range: 12% in Ireland to 24% in Norway). CONCLUSIONS: International variations in ovarian cancer survival by stage exist with the largest differences observed in the oldest age group with advanced disease. This finding endorses further research investigating international differences in access to and quality of treatment, and prevalence of comorbid conditions particularly in older women with advanced disease.

Progress in cancer survival, mortality, and incidence in seven high-income countries 1995-2014 (ICBP SURVMARK-2): a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer survival estimates provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of cancer services and can reflect the prospects of cure. As part of the second phase of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP), the Cancer Survival in High-Income Countries (SURVMARK-2) project aims to provide a comprehensive overview of cancer survival across seven high-income countries and a comparative assessment of corresponding incidence and mortality trends. METHODS: In this longitudinal, population-based study, we collected patient-level data on 3·9 million patients with cancer from population-based cancer registries in 21 jurisdictions in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK) for seven sites of cancer (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, and ovary) diagnosed between 1995 and 2014, and followed up until Dec 31, 2015. We calculated age-standardised net survival at 1 year and 5 years after diagnosis by site, age group, and period of diagnosis. We mapped changes in incidence and mortality to changes in survival to assess progress in cancer control. FINDINGS: In 19 eligible jurisdictions, 3 764 543 cases of cancer were eligible for inclusion in the study. In the 19 included jurisdictions, over 1995-2014, 1-year and 5-year net survival increased in each country across almost all cancer types, with, for example, 5-year rectal cancer survival increasing more than 13 percentage points in Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. For 2010-14, survival was generally higher in Australia, Canada, and Norway than in New Zealand, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. Over the study period, larger survival improvements were observed for patients younger than 75 years at diagnosis than those aged 75 years and older, and notably for cancers with a poor prognosis (ie, oesophagus, stomach, pancreas, and lung). Progress in cancer control (ie, increased survival, decreased mortality and incidence) over the study period was evident for stomach, colon, lung (in males), and ovarian cancer. INTERPRETATION: The joint evaluation of trends in incidence, mortality, and survival indicated progress in four of the seven studied cancers. Cancer survival continues to increase across high-income countries; however, international disparities persist. While truly valid comparisons require differences in registration practice, classification, and coding to be minimal, stage of disease at diagnosis, timely access to effective treatment, and the extent of comorbidity are likely the main determinants of patient outcomes. Future studies are needed to assess the impact of these factors to further our understanding of international disparities in cancer survival. FUNDING: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer; Cancer Council Victoria; Cancer Institute New South Wales; Cancer Research UK; Danish Cancer Society; National Cancer Registry Ireland; The Cancer Society of New Zealand; National Health Service England; Norwegian Cancer Society; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry; The Scottish Government; Western Australia Department of Health; and Wales Cancer Network.

Projection du fardeau du cancer au Canada en 2024.

CONTEXTE: Les données de surveillance du cancer sont essentielles pour mieux comprendre les lacunes et les progrès réalisés dans la lutte contre le cancer. Nous avons cherché à résumer les répercussions prévues du cancer au Canada en 2024, en effectuant des projections sur les nouveaux cas de cancer et les décès par cancer, par sexe et par province ou territoire, pour tous les âges confondus. MÉTHODES: Nous avons obtenu les données sur les nouveaux cas de cancer (c.-à-d., l'incidence, 1984­2019) et les décès par cancer (c.-à-d., la mortalité, 1984­2020) du Registre canadien du cancer et de la Base canadienne de données de l'état civil ­ Décès, respectivement. Nous avons projeté les chiffres et les taux d'incidence du cancer et de mortalité jusqu'en 2024 pour 23 types de cancer, par sexe et par province ou territoire. Nous avons calculé des taux normalisés selon l'âge au moyen de données de la population type canadienne de 2011. RÉSULTATS: En 2024, les nombres de nouveaux cas de cancer et de décès causés par le cancer devraient atteindre 247 100 et 88 100, respectivement. Le taux d'incidence normalisé selon l'âge (TINA) et le taux de mortalité normalisé selon l'âge (TMNA) devraient diminuer légèrement par rapport aux années précédentes, tant chez les hommes que chez les femmes, avec des taux plus élevés chez les hommes (TINA de 562,2 pour 100 000, et TMNA de 209,6 pour 100 000 chez les hommes; TINA de 495,9 pour 100 000 et TMNA de 152,8 pour 100 000 chez les femmes). Les TINA et les TMNA de plusieurs cancers courants devraient continuer à diminuer (p. ex., cancer du poumon, cancer colorectal et cancer de la prostate), tandis que ceux de plusieurs autres cancers devraient augmenter (p. ex., cancer du foie et des voies biliaires intrahépatiques, cancer du rein, mélanome et lymphome non hodgkinien). INTERPRÉTATION: Bien que l'incidence globale du cancer et la mortalité connexe sont en déclin, il devrait y avoir une augmentation des nouveaux cas et des décès au Canada en 2024, en grande partie en raison de la croissance et du vieillissement de la population. Les efforts en matière de prévention, de dépistage et de traitement ont atténué les répercussions de certains cancers, mais ces projections à court terme soulignent l'effet potentiel du cancer sur les gens et les systèmes de soins de santé au Canada.

Investigation of the international comparability of population-based routine hospital data set derived comorbidity scores for patients with lung cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) identified significant international differences in lung cancer survival. Differing levels of comorbid disease across ICBP countries has been suggested as a potential explanation of this variation but, to date, no studies have quantified its impact. This study investigated whether comparable, robust comorbidity scores can be derived from the different routine population-based cancer data sets available in the ICBP jurisdictions and, if so, use them to quantify international variation in comorbidity and determine its influence on outcome. METHODS: Linked population-based lung cancer registry and hospital discharge data sets were acquired from nine ICBP jurisdictions in Australia, Canada, Norway and the UK providing a study population of 233 981 individuals. For each person in this cohort Charlson, Elixhauser and inpatient bed day Comorbidity Scores were derived relating to the 4-36 months prior to their lung cancer diagnosis. The scores were then compared to assess their validity and feasibility of use in international survival comparisons. RESULTS: It was feasible to generate the three comorbidity scores for each jurisdiction, which were found to have good content, face and concurrent validity. Predictive validity was limited and there was evidence that the reliability was questionable. CONCLUSION: The results presented here indicate that interjurisdictional comparability of recorded comorbidity was limited due to probable differences in coding and hospital admission practices in each area. Before the contribution of comorbidity on international differences in cancer survival can be investigated an internationally harmonised comorbidity index is required.

Premature Mortality Due to Malignancies of the Central Nervous System in Canada, 1980-2010.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we investigated whether there has been an improvement in premature mortality due to central nervous system (CNS) cancers among the Canadian population from 1980 through 2010. METHODS: Mortality data for CNS cancers were obtained from World Health Organization mortality database. Years of life lost (YLL) was estimated using Canadian life tables. Average lifespan shortened (ALSS) was calculated and defined as the ratio of YLL relative to the expected lifespan. RESULTS: Over this study period, we observed decreases in age standardized rates to the World Standard Population for mortality due to CNS cancers from 5.3 to 4.1 per 100,000 men, and from 3.6 to 2.9 per 100,000 women. Average YLL decreased from 23.6 to 21.5 years of life among men, and from 27.0 to 23.1 years among women in 1980 and 2010, respectively. The ALSS showed that men with CNS cancers lost 30.1% of their life span and women lost 32.5% in 1980, whereas they lost 25.8 and 26.6% in 2010, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our study shows that -Canadian people with CNS cancers have had their lives prolonged at the end of the study period.

Premature mortality due to breast cancer among Canadian women: an analysis of a 30-year period from 1980 through 2010.

Background: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the second most common cause of cancer deaths for women. In the present study, we examined the trend of premature mortality due to breast cancer among Canadian women from 1980 through 2010 and proposed a new measure of lifespan shortening. Methods: Mortality data for female breast cancer was obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Years of life lost (YLL) was estimated using Canadian life tables. Average lifespan shortened (ALSS) that is calculated and expressed by a ratio of YLL relative to expected lifespan. Results: Over this study period, age-standardized rates of breast cancer mortality adjusted to World Standard Population decreased by 40% from 23.2 to 14.2 per 100 000 women. The adjusted YLL rates fell from 5.3 years per 1000 women to 3.3 years. On average women with breast cancer died 20.8 years prior to expected death in 1980 and 18.3 years early in 2010. A novel measure of lifespan shortening, the ALSS decreased from one-fourth of the lifespan in 1980 to one-fifth in 2010. Conclusions: Our study reports that among Canadian women with breast cancer, a smaller proportion of life was lost on average at the end of the study period. The 'life lost' measures presented in this study would be useful tools to monitor the pattern of premature mortality for chronic conditions. These measures gauge the effectiveness of the health system with respect to early detection and treatment.

Stage Shifting by Modifying the Determinants of Breast Cancer Stage at Diagnosis: A Simulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most common cancer in Canadian women; nearly 25% of women diagnosed with cancer have breast cancer. The early detection of breast cancer is a major challenge because tumours often grow without causing symptom. The diagnosis of breast cancer at an early stage (stages I and II) improves survival outcomes because treatments are more effective and better tolerated. To better inform the prevention of and screening for breast cancer, simulations using modifiable rather than non-modifiable risk factors may be helpful in shifting the stage at diagnosis downward. METHODS: Breast cancer stages were simulated using the data distributions from Alberta's Tomorrow Project participants who developed breast cancer. Using multivariable partial proportional odds regression models, modifiable lifestyle factors associated with the stage of cancer at diagnosis were evaluated. The proportions or mean levels of these lifestyle factors in the simulated population were systematically changed, then multiplied by their corresponding estimated odds ratios from the real data example. The effects of these changes were evaluated singly as well as cumulatively. RESULTS: Increasing total dietary protein (g/day) intake was the single most important lifestyle factor in shifting the breast cancer stage downwards followed by decreasing total dietary energy intake (kcal/day). Increasing the proportion of women who spend time in the sun between 11 am and 4 pm in the summer months, who have had a mammogram, who have been pregnant or reducing the proportion who are in stressful situations had much smaller effects. The percentage of Stage I diagnoses could be increased by approximately 12% with small modifications of these lifestyle factors. CONCLUSION: Shifting the breast cancer stage at diagnosis of a population may be achieved through changes to lifestyle factors. This proof of principle study that evaluated multiple factors associated with the stage at diagnosis in a population can be expanded to other cancers as well, providing opportunities for cancer prevention programs to target specific factors and identify populations at higher risk.

Trends in the Incidence of Cancer Among Adolescent and Young Adults in Alberta, 1983-2017: A Population-Based Study Using Cancer Registry Data.

Purpose: To describe the cancer incidence burden and trends among adolescent and young adults (AYAs) in Alberta, Canada over a 35-year period. Methods: We obtained data from the Alberta Cancer Registry on all first primary cancers, excluding non-melanoma skin cancer, diagnosed at ages 15-39 years among residents in Alberta from 1983 to 2017. Cancers were classified by using Barr's AYA cancer classification system. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) in incidence rates were calculated. Statistically significant changes in the AAPC during the study period were assessed using Joinpoint regression. Results: Overall, 23,652 incident cases of AYA cancer were diagnosed in Alberta. Females accounted for ∼60% of the diagnoses. AYA cancer increased significantly over the study period overall (AAPC: 0.5%; 95%CI: 0.3%-0.7%), for each sex (AAPCmale: 0.7%; 95%CI: 0.4%-0.9%; AAPCfemale: 0.4%; 95%CI: 0.2%-0.6%), and among male and female 20-39 year-olds. Although statistically significant increases were observed in 11 out of 29 cancer sites for at least a portion of the study period, with significant AAPCs ranging from 0.8% (95%CI: 0.01%-1.5%) to 6.6% (95%CI: 4.6%-8.5%), the main driver was thyroid cancer (AAPC: 3.7%; 95%CI: 3.2%-4.2%). Statistically significant decreases were observed for six cancer sites, with AAPCs ranging from -6.4% (95%CI: -8.7% to -4.1%) to -1.1% (95%CI: -1.8% to -0.5%). Conclusions: There is a growing cancer burden among AYAs in Alberta, which is driven primarily by thyroid cancer and early-onset cancers in males. These results highlight the need for etiological studies and tertiary strategies to prevent and mitigate morbidity and mortality in the AYA population.

Development and External Validation of Partial Proportional Odds Risk Prediction Models for Cancer Stage at Diagnosis among Males and Females in Canada.

Risk prediction models for cancer stage at diagnosis may identify individuals at higher risk of late-stage cancer diagnoses. Partial proportional odds risk prediction models for cancer stage at diagnosis for males and females were developed using data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project (ATP). Prediction models were validated on the British Columbia Generations Project (BCGP) cohort using discrimination and calibration measures. Among ATP males, older age at diagnosis was associated with an earlier stage at diagnosis, while full- or part-time employment, prostate-specific antigen testing, and former/current smoking were associated with a later stage at diagnosis. Among ATP females, mammogram and sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy were associated with an earlier stage at diagnosis, while older age at diagnosis, number of pregnancies, and hysterectomy were associated with a later stage at diagnosis. On external validation, discrimination results were poor for both males and females while calibration results indicated that the models did not over- or under-fit to derivation data or over- or under-predict risk. Multiple factors associated with cancer stage at diagnosis were identified among ATP participants. While the prediction model calibration was acceptable, discrimination was poor when applied to BCGP data. Updating our models with additional predictors may help improve predictive performance.