Global losses due to dairy cattle diseases: A comorbidity-adjusted economic analysis.

An economic simulation was carried out over 183 milk-producing countries to estimate the global economic impacts of 12 dairy cattle diseases and health conditions: mastitis (subclinical and clinical), lameness, paratuberculosis (Johne's disease), displaced abomasum, dystocia, metritis, milk fever, ovarian cysts, retained placenta, and ketosis (subclinical and clinical). Estimates of disease impacts on milk yield, fertility, and culling were collected from the literature, standardized, meta-analyzed using a variety of methods ranging from simple averaging to random-effects models, and adjusted for comorbidities to prevent overestimation. These comorbidity-adjusted disease impacts were then combined with a set of country-level lactational incidence and/or prevalence estimates, herd characteristics, and price estimates within a series of Monte Carlo simulations that estimated and valued the economic losses due to these diseases. It was estimated that total annual global losses are USD 65 billion (B). Subclinical ketosis, clinical mastitis, and subclinical mastitis were the costliest diseases modeled, resulting in mean annual global losses of approximately USD 18B, USD 13B, and USD 9B, respectively. Estimated global annual losses due to clinical ketosis, displaced abomasum, dystocia, lameness, metritis, milk fever, ovarian cysts, paratuberculosis, and retained placenta were estimated to be USD 0.2B, 0.6B, 0.6B, 6B, 5B, 0.6B, 4B, 4B, and 3B, respectively. Without adjustment for comorbidities, when statistical associations between diseases were disregarded, mean aggregate global losses would have been overestimated by 45%. Although annual losses were greatest in India (USD 12B), the USA (USD 8B), and China (USD 5B), depending on the measure of losses used (losses as a percent of GDP, losses per capita, losses as a percent of gross milk revenue), the relative economic burden of these dairy cattle diseases across countries varied markedly.

The contribution of livestock to urban resilience: the case of Bamako, Mali.

Urban livestock keeping is increasing in many sub-Saharan African cities, but detailed contextual information on its extent, challenges, and potential is limited. A cross-sectional household study was done in 2010 in Bamako, Mali. Thirty-two of 67 quarters were randomly selected with selection probability proportional to the size of the human population of the communes. Questionnaire interviews were done with a head of household in 1141 households, comprising 19,816 people in total. Sheep were kept by 16% (95% CI 14-18), while 21% (95% CI 17-24) kept poultry. The sheep to human ratio was 4:100, with an extrapolated city-wide population of 67,636 sheep (95% CI 61,018-75,595). The poultry to human ratio was 11:100, with an extrapolated city-wide population of 191,802 chickens (95% CI 176,212-208,772). For urban livestock holders, household-level enterprise gross margins were calculated for sheep production at USD 103 and poultry production at USD 50 annually. The annual gross margin was estimated at USD 35 per sheep and USD 17 per chicken. Based on these figures, the city-wide urban livestock total gross margin for Bamako in 2010 was estimated at USD 5.6 million. Detailed population data help clarify the urban livestock animal human interface in diverse contexts and highlight the important contributions that urban small-holder production adds to food security and resilience. The potential for urban livestock production informs decision-makers in developing adapted, sustainable policies in resource-constrained environments.

Improved productivity and sustainable pastoral systems in an era of insecurity-Fulani herds of the southern Jos Plateau, North-Central Nigeria.

This study investigated the productivity and management of sheep and cattle kept by Fulani pastoralists of Bokkos local government area on the Jos Plateau, North-Central Nigeria. Despite the challenges related to insecurity and restricted access to natural resources, results show large breeding herds with above average productivity and reproductive performance. The management strategy was focused on providing both milk and increased cattle numbers for pastoralists and beef to satisfy the high market demand. High natural herd growth and moderate offtake rates allowed households to maintain herd sizes with a small net increase in cattle numbers. Sheep productivity in these herds was characterised by high births, high mortality and high offtake, leading to overall negative herd growth. The use of hired herders is on the rise in response to natural resource conflict, insecurity and reduced family labour availability due to alternative livelihood strategies. Disease and related mortality remain significant constraints to productivity which could be addressed by increased access to quality veterinary care. However, any further increases in livestock numbers would put additional strain on already inadequate natural resources.

Cost estimate of bovine tuberculosis to Ethiopia.

While bovine tuberculosis (BTB) has been eliminated in some industrialized countries, it prevails worldwide, particularly in Africa. In Ethiopia, BTB is prevalent as numerous studies have shown its occurrence in livestock and in abattoirs but it has not been demonstrated in wildlife and only very few cases have been found in humans. The objective of this study is to estimate the cost of BTB to Ethiopia with the aim of informing Ethiopian policy on options for BTB control. BTB in livestock affects both animal productivity and herd demographic composition. The Livestock Development Planning System (LDPS2, FAO) was modified to allow for stochastic simulation of parameters. We performed an incremental cost of disease analysis, comparing livestock production with and without BTB. For the rural scenario we considered an endemically stable 4 % comparative intradermal test (CIDT) prevalence and for the urban scenario an endemically stable 32 % CIDT prevalence among cattle. The net present value of rural Ethiopian livestock products in 2005 is estimated at 65.7 billion (thousand million) Ethiopian Birr (95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 53.8-77.7 billion Birr), which is the equivalent of 7.5 billion US$ (95 %CI 6.1-8.9 billion US$) at a rate of 8.7 Birr per US$ in 2005. The cost of BTB ranges from 646 million Birr (75.2 million US$) in 2005 to 3.1 Billion Birr in 2011 (358 million US$) but is within the range of uncertainty of our estimate and can thus not be distinguished from zero. The cost of disease in the urban livestock production ranges from 5 to 42 million Birr (500,000-4.9 million US$) between 2005 and 2011 but is also within the range of uncertainty of our estimate. Our study shows no measurable loss in asset value or cost of disease due to BTB in rural and urban production systems in Ethiopia. This does not mean that there is not a real cost of disease, but the variability of the productivity parameters and prices are high and would require more precise estimates. This study does not preclude in any way the urgent need to control BTB in the urban dairy herd of Addis Ababa for other than financial reasons.

Regional perspectives on patient safety policies and initiatives: a focus group study with patient safety leaders in the Middle East and Asian regions.

Preventing and reducing risks and harm to patients is of critical importance as unsafe care is a leading cause of death and disability globally. However, the lack of consolidated information on patient safety policies and initiatives at regional levels represents an evidence gap with implications for policy and planning. The aim of the study was to answer the question of what patient safety policies and initiatives are currently in place in the Middle East and Asian regions and what were the main strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in developing these. A qualitative approach using online focus groups was adopted. Participants attended focus groups beginning in August 2022. A topic guide was developed using a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats framework analysis approach. The Consolidated Criteria for Reporting Qualitative Research checklist was used to ensure the recommended standards of qualitative data reporting were met. 21 participants from 11 countries participated in the study. Current patient safety policies identified were categorised across 5 thematic areas and initiatives were categorised across a further 10 thematic areas. Strengths of patient safety initiatives included enabling healthcare worker training, leadership commitment in hospitals, and stakeholder engagement and collaboration. Weaknesses included a disconnect between health delivery and education, implementation gaps, low clinical awareness and buy-in at the facility level, and lack of leadership engagement. Just culture, safety by design and education were considered opportunities, alongside data collection and reporting for research and shared learning. Future threats were low leadership commitment, changing leadership, poor integration across the system, a public-private quality gap and political instability in some contexts. Undertaking further research regionally will enable shared learning and the development of best practice examples. Future research should explore the development of policies and initiatives for patient safety at the provider, local and national levels that can inform action across the system.

Prediction of coccidiosis prevalence in extensive backyard chickens in countries and regions of the Horn of Africa.

Coccidiosis is one of the leading morbidity causes in chickens, causing a reduction of body weight and egg production. Backyard chickens are at risk of developing clinical and subclinical coccidiosis due to outdoor housing and scavenging behaviour, jeopardizing food security in households. The objectives of this study were to estimate clinical prevalence of coccidiosis at country and regional levels in the Horn of Africa in extensive backyard chickens. A binomial random effects model was developed to impute prevalence of coccidiosis. Previously gathered prevalence data (n = 40) in backyard chickens was used to define the model. Precipitation (OR: 1.09 (95% CI: 1.05-1.13) and the presence of seasonal rainfall (OR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.27-2.70) significantly increase prevalence. Results showed an overall prevalence of coccidiosis in the Horn of Africa of 0.21 (95% CI: 0.15-0.29). Ethiopia, the Republic of South Sudan and Kenya showed the highest prevalence and Djibouti the lowest. Significant differences between Djibouti and the countries with highest prevalence were found. However, no evidence of a significant difference between the rest of the countries. Kenya and Ethiopia showed larger prevalence differences between regions. Results could assist with the targeting of testing for coccidiosis, the observation for clinical disease of chickens living in specific regions and as a baseline for the evaluation of future control measures.

Toward a Demand-Driven, Collaborative Data Agenda for Adolescent Mental Health.

PURPOSE: Existing datasets and research in the field of adolescent mental health do not always meet the needs of practitioners, policymakers, and program implementers, particularly in the context of vulnerable populations. Here, we introduce a collaborative, demand-driven methodology for the development of a strategic adolescent mental health research agenda. Ultimately, this agenda aims to guide future data sharing and collection efforts that meet the most pressing data needs of key stakeholders. METHODS: We conducted a rapid literature search to summarize common themes in adolescent mental health research into a "topic map". We then hosted two virtual workshops with a range of international experts to discuss the topic map and identify shared priorities for future collaboration and research. RESULTS: Our topic map identifies 10 major themes in adolescent mental health, organized into system-level, community-level, and individual-level categories. The engagement of cross-sectoral experts resulted in the validation of the mapping exercise, critical insights for refining the topic map, and a collaborative list of priorities for future research. DISCUSSION: This innovative agile methodology enables a focused deliberation with diverse stakeholders and can serve as the starting point for data generation and collaboration practices, both in the field of adolescent mental health and other topics.

Detection of male genital schistosomiasis (MGS) by real-time TaqMan® PCR analysis of semen from fishermen along the southern shoreline of Lake Malawi.

Background: Male genital schistosomiasis (MGS) is an underappreciated complication of schistosomiasis, first described in 1911. However, its epidemiology, diagnostic testing and case management are not well understood in sub-Saharan Africa. To shed new light on MGS prevalence in Malawi, a longitudinal cohort study was conducted among adult fishermen along the southern shoreline of Lake Malawi using detection of schistosome DNA in participants' semen by real-time TaqMan® PCR analyses. Methods: Upon recruitment of 376 participants, 210 submitted urine samples and 114 semen samples for parasitological tests. Thereafter, the available semen samples were subsequently analysed by real-time TaqMan® PCR. Praziquantel (PZQ) treatment was provided to all participants with follow-ups attempted at 1, 3, 6 and 12-months' intervals. Results: At baseline, real-time PCR detected a higher MGS cohort prevalence of 26.6% (n = 64, Ct-value range: 18.9-37.4), compared to 10.4% by semen microscopy. In total, 21.9% of participants (n = 114) were detected with MGS either by semen microscopy and/or by real-time PCR. Subsequent analyses at 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month follow-ups indicated variable detection dynamics. Conclusions: This first application of a molecular method, to detect MGS in sub-Saharan Africa, highlights the need for development of such molecular diagnostic tests which should be affordable and locally accessible. Our investigation also notes the persistence of MGS over a calendar year despite praziquantel treatment.

Health economic evaluation of strategies to eliminate gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul disease focus of Chad.

Human African trypanosomiasis, caused by the gambiense subspecies of Trypanosoma brucei (gHAT), is a deadly parasitic disease transmitted by tsetse. Partners worldwide have stepped up efforts to eliminate the disease, and the Chadian government has focused on the previously high-prevalence setting of Mandoul. In this study, we evaluate the economic efficiency of the intensified strategy that was put in place in 2014 aimed at interrupting the transmission of gHAT, and we make recommendations on the best way forward based on both epidemiological projections and cost-effectiveness. In our analysis, we use a dynamic transmission model fit to epidemiological data from Mandoul to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of combinations of active screening, improved passive screening (defined as an expansion of the number of health posts capable of screening for gHAT), and vector control activities (the deployment of Tiny Targets to control the tsetse vector). For cost-effectiveness analyses, our primary outcome is disease burden, denominated in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and costs, denominated in 2020 US$. Although active and passive screening have enabled more rapid diagnosis and accessible treatment in Mandoul, the addition of vector control provided good value-for-money (at less than $750/DALY averted) which substantially increased the probability of reaching the 2030 elimination target for gHAT as set by the World Health Organization. Our transmission modelling and economic evaluation suggest that the gains that have been made could be maintained by passive screening. Our analysis speaks to comparative efficiency, and it does not take into account all possible considerations; for instance, any cessation of ongoing active screening should first consider that substantial surveillance activities will be critical to verify the elimination of transmission and to protect against the possible importation of infection from neighbouring endemic foci.

Approximating the global economic (market) value of farmed animals.

Understanding the global economic importance of farmed animals to society is essential as a baseline for decision making about future food systems. We estimated the annual global economic (market) value of live animals and primary production outputs, e.g., meat, eggs, milk, from terrestrial and aquatic farmed animal systems. The results suggest that the total global market value of farmed animals ranges between 1.61 and 3.3 trillion USD (2018) and is expected to be similar in absolute terms to the market value of crop outputs (2.57 trillion USD). The cattle sector dominates the market value of farmed animals. The study highlights the need to consider other values of farmed animals to society, e.g., finance/insurance value and cultural value, in decisions about the sector's future.

Safety in fragile, conflict-affected, and vulnerable settings: An evidence scanning approach for identifying patient safety interventions.

Background: The number of people living in fragile, conflict-affected, and vulnerable (FCV) settings is growing rapidly and attention to achieving universal health coverage must be accompanied by sufficient focus on the safety of care for universal access to be meaningful. Healthcare workers in these settings are working under extreme conditions, often with insufficient contextualized evidence to support decision-making. Recognising the relative paucity of, and methodological issues in gathering evidence from these settings, the evidence scanning described in this paper considered which patient safety interventions might offer the 'better bet', eg, the most effective and appropriate intervention in FCV settings. Methods: An evidence scanning approach was used to examine the literature. The search was limited to FCV settings and low-income settings as defined by the World Bank, but if a systematic review included a mix of evidence from FCV/low income settings, as well as low-middle income settings, it was included. The search was conducted in English and limited to studies published from 2003 onwards, utilising Google Scholar as a publicly accessible database and further review of the grey literature, with specific attention to the outputs of non-governmental organisations. The search and subsequent analysis were completed between April and June 2020. Results: The majority of studies identified related to strengthening infection prevention and control which was also found to be the 'better bet' intervention that could generalise to other settings, be most feasible to implement, and most effective for improving patient care and associated outcomes. Other prioritized interventions include risk management, with contributing elements such as reporting, audits, and death review processes. Conclusions: Infection prevention and control interventions dominate in the literature for multiple reasons including strength of evidence, acceptability, feasibility, and impact on patient and health worker well-being. However, there is an urgent need to further develop the evidence base, specialist knowledge, and field guidance on a range of other patient safety interventions such as education and training, patient identification, subject specific safety actions, and risk management.

The cost of tsetse control using 'Tiny Targets' in the sleeping sickness endemic forest area of Bonon in Côte d'Ivoire: Implications for comparing costs across different settings.

BACKGROUND: Work to control the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), or sleeping sickness, is now directed towards ending transmission of the parasite by 2030. In order to supplement gHAT case-finding and treatment, since 2011 tsetse control has been implemented using Tiny Targets in a number of gHAT foci. As this intervention is extended to new foci, it is vital to understand the costs involved. Costs have already been analysed for the foci of Arua in Uganda and Mandoul in Chad. This paper examines the costs of controlling Glossina palpalis palpalis in the focus of Bonon in Côte d'Ivoire from 2016 to 2017. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Some 2000 targets were placed throughout the main gHAT transmission area of 130 km2 at a density of 14.9 per km2. The average annual cost was USD 0.5 per person protected, USD 31.6 per target deployed of which 12% was the cost of the target itself, or USD 471.2 per km2 protected. Broken down by activity, 54% was for deployment and maintenance of targets, 34% for tsetse surveys/monitoring and 12% for sensitising populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The cost of tsetse control per km2 of the gHAT focus protected in Bonon was more expensive than in Chad or Uganda, while the cost per km2 treated, that is the area where the targets were actually deployed, was cheaper. Per person protected, the Bonon cost fell between the two, with Uganda cheaper and Chad more expensive. In Bonon, targets were deployed throughout the protected area, because G. p. palpalis was present everywhere, whereas in Chad and Uganda G. fuscipes fuscipes was found only the riverine fringing vegetation. Thus, differences between gHAT foci, in terms of tsetse ecology and human geography, impact on the cost-effectiveness of tsetse control. It also demonstrates the need to take into account both the area treated and protected alongside other impact indicators, such as the cost per person protected.

Estimating the burden of multiple endemic diseases and health conditions using Bayes' Theorem: A conditional probability model applied to UK dairy cattle.

The Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs) is an international collaboration aiming, in part, to measure and improve societal outcomes from livestock. One GBADs objective is to estimate the economic impact of endemic diseases in livestock. However, if individual disease impact estimates are linearly aggregated without consideration for associations among diseases, there is the potential to double count impacts, overestimating the total burden. Accordingly, the authors propose a method to adjust an array of individual disease impact estimates so that they may be aggregated without overlap. Using Bayes' Theorem, conditional probabilities were derived from inter-disease odds ratios in the literature. These conditional probabilities were used to calculate the excess probability of disease among animals with associated conditions, or the probability of disease overlap given the odds of coinfection, which were then used to adjust disease impact estimates so that they may be aggregated. The aggregate impacts, or the yield, fertility, and mortality gaps due to disease, were then attributed and valued, generating disease-specific losses. The approach was illustrated using an example dairy cattle system with input values and supporting parameters from the UK, with 13 diseases and health conditions endemic to UK dairy cattle: cystic ovary, disease caused by gastrointestinal nematodes, displaced abomasum, dystocia, fasciolosis, lameness, mastitis, metritis, milk fever, neosporosis, paratuberculosis, retained placenta, and subclinical ketosis. The diseases and conditions modelled resulted in total adjusted losses of £ 404/cow/year, equivalent to herd-level losses of £ 60,000/year. Unadjusted aggregation methods suggested losses 14-61% greater. Although lameness was identified as the costliest condition (28% of total losses), variations in the prevalence of fasciolosis, neosporosis, and paratuberculosis (only a combined 22% of total losses) were nearly as impactful individually as variations in the prevalence of lameness. The results suggest that from a disease control policy perspective, the costliness of a disease may not always be the best indicator of the investment its control warrants; the costliness rankings varied across approaches and total losses were found to be surprisingly sensitive to variations in the prevalence of relatively uncostly diseases. This approach allows for disease impact estimates to be aggregated without double counting. It can be applied to any livestock system in any region with any set of endemic diseases, and can be updated as new prevalence, impact, and disease association data become available. This approach also provides researchers and policymakers an alternative tool to rank prevention priorities.

Livestock Network Analysis for Rhodesiense Human African Trypanosomiasis Control in Uganda.

Background: Infected cattle sourced from districts with established foci for Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) migrating to previously unaffected districts, have resulted in a significant expansion of the disease in Uganda. This study explores livestock movement data to describe cattle trade network topology and assess the effects of disease control interventions on the transmission of rHAT infectiousness. Methods: Network analysis was used to generate a cattle trade network with livestock data which was collected from cattle traders (n = 197) and validated using random graph methods. Additionally, the cattle trade network was combined with a susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR) compartmental model to simulate spread of rHAT (R o 1.287), hence regarded as "slow" pathogen, and evaluate the effects of disease interventions. Results: The cattle trade network exhibited a low clustering coefficient (0.5) with most cattle markets being weakly connected and a few being highly connected. Also, analysis of the cattle movement data revealed a core group comprising of cattle markets from both eastern (rHAT endemic) and northwest regions (rHAT unaffected area). Presence of a core group may result in rHAT spread to unaffected districts and occurrence of super spreader cattle market or markets in case of an outbreak. The key cattle markets that may be targeted for routine rHAT surveillance and control included Namutumba, Soroti, and Molo, all of which were in southeast Uganda. Using effective trypanosomiasis such as integrated cattle injection with trypanocides and spraying can sufficiently slow the spread of rHAT in the network. Conclusion: Cattle trade network analysis indicated a pathway along which T. b. rhodesiense could spread northward from eastern Uganda. Targeted T. b. rhodesiense surveillance and control in eastern Uganda, through enhanced public-private partnerships, would serve to limit its spread.

How to improve patient safety in fragile, conflict-affected and vulnerable settings: a Delphi study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: There is a high burden of adverse events and poor outcomes in fragile, conflict-affected and vulnerable (FCV) settings. To improve outcomes, there is a need to better identify which interventions can improve patient safety in these settings, as well as to develop strategies to optimise their implementation. OBJECTIVE: This study intends to generate a consensus on the most relevant patient safety interventions from experts with experience on FCV settings, including frontline clinicians and managers/administrators, non-governmental organisations, policymakers and researchers. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study uses an online Delphi research approach (eDelphi). Participants will include experts from a range of backgrounds, including those working in a variety of FCV settings. Participants will be established contacts known to the research team or recruited via snowball sampling, and will be asked to identify and rank the importance of a variety of patient safety interventions. Consensus will be defined as >70% of participants agreeing/strongly agreeing or disagreeing/strongly disagreeing with a statement. Data analysis will be completed in Microsoft Excel and NVivo. The primary outcome of the study will be a list of the most relevant and applicable patient safety interventions for FCV settings. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has received approval from Imperial College London Ethics Committee (reference number 20IC665). Anonymous results will be made available to the public, academic organisations and policymakers.

Critical Linkages Between Livestock Production, Livestock Trade and Potential Spread of Human African Trypanosomiasis in Uganda: Bioeconomic Herd Modeling and Livestock Trade Analysis.

Background: Tsetse-transmitted human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) remains endemic in Uganda. The chronic form caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (gHAT) is found in north-western Uganda, whereas the acute zoonotic form of the disease, caused by T. b. brucei rhodesiense (rHAT), occurs in the eastern region. Cattle is the major reservoir of rHAT in Uganda. These two forms of HAT are likely to converge resulting in a public health disaster. This study examines the intricate and intrinsic links between cattle herd dynamics, livestock trade and potential risk of spread of rHAT northwards. Methods: A bio-economic cattle herd model was developed to simulate herd dynamics at the farm level. Semi-structured interviews (n = 310), focus group discussions (n = 9) and key informant interviews (n = 9) were used to evaluate livestock markets (n = 9) as part of the cattle supply chain analysis. The cattle market data was used for stochastic risk analysis. Results: Cattle trade in eastern and northern Uganda is dominated by sale of draft and adult male cattle as well as exportation of young male cattle. The study found that the need to import draft cattle at the farm level was to cover deficits because of the herd structure, which is mostly geared towards animal traction. The importation and exportation of draft cattle and disposal of old adult male cattle formed the major basis of livestock movement and could result in the spread of rHAT northwards. The risk of rHAT infected cattle being introduced to northern Uganda from the eastern region via cattle trade was found to be high (i.e. probability of 1). Conclusion: Through deterministic and stochastic modelling of cattle herd and cattle trade dynamics, this study identifies critical links between livestock production and trade as well as potential risk of rHAT spread in eastern and northern Uganda. The findings highlight the need for targeted and routine surveillance and control of zoonotic diseases such as rHAT.