Aspirin for Secondary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in 51 Low-, Middle-, and High-Income Countries.

Importance: Aspirin is an effective and low-cost option for reducing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and improving mortality rates among individuals with established CVD. To guide efforts to mitigate the global CVD burden, there is a need to understand current levels of aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD. Objective: To report and evaluate aspirin use for secondary prevention of CVD across low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional analysis using pooled, individual participant data from nationally representative health surveys conducted between 2013 and 2020 in 51 low-, middle-, and high-income countries. Included surveys contained data on self-reported history of CVD and aspirin use. The sample of participants included nonpregnant adults aged 40 to 69 years. Exposures: Countries' per capita income levels and world region; individuals' socioeconomic demographics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Self-reported use of aspirin for secondary prevention of CVD. Results: The overall pooled sample included 124 505 individuals. The median age was 52 (IQR, 45-59) years, and 50.5% (95% CI, 49.9%-51.1%) were women. A total of 10 589 individuals had a self-reported history of CVD (8.1% [95% CI, 7.6%-8.6%]). Among individuals with a history of CVD, aspirin use for secondary prevention in the overall pooled sample was 40.3% (95% CI, 37.6%-43.0%). By income group, estimates were 16.6% (95% CI, 12.4%-21.9%) in low-income countries, 24.5% (95% CI, 20.8%-28.6%) in lower-middle-income countries, 51.1% (95% CI, 48.2%-54.0%) in upper-middle-income countries, and 65.0% (95% CI, 59.1%-70.4%) in high-income countries. Conclusion and Relevance: Worldwide, aspirin is underused in secondary prevention, particularly in low-income countries. National health policies and health systems must develop, implement, and evaluate strategies to promote aspirin therapy.

Cardiovascular disease risk profile and management practices in 45 low-income and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional study of nationally representative individual-level survey data.

BACKGROUND: Global cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden is high and rising, especially in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Focussing on 45 LMICs, we aimed to determine (1) the adult population's median 10-year predicted CVD risk, including its variation within countries by socio-demographic characteristics, and (2) the prevalence of self-reported blood pressure (BP) medication use among those with and without an indication for such medication as per World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative household surveys from 45 LMICs carried out between 2005 and 2017, with 32 surveys being WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) surveys. Country-specific median 10-year CVD risk was calculated using the 2019 WHO CVD Risk Chart Working Group non-laboratory-based equations. BP medication indications were based on the WHO Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Interventions guidelines. Regression models examined associations between CVD risk, BP medication use, and socio-demographic characteristics. Our complete case analysis included 600,484 adults from 45 countries. Median 10-year CVD risk (interquartile range [IQR]) for males and females was 2.7% (2.3%-4.2%) and 1.6% (1.3%-2.1%), respectively, with estimates indicating the lowest risk in sub-Saharan Africa and highest in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean. Higher educational attainment and current employment were associated with lower CVD risk in most countries. Of those indicated for BP medication, the median (IQR) percentage taking medication was 24.2% (15.4%-37.2%) for males and 41.6% (23.9%-53.8%) for females. Conversely, a median (IQR) 47.1% (36.1%-58.6%) of all people taking a BP medication were not indicated for such based on CVD risk status. There was no association between BP medication use and socio-demographic characteristics in most of the 45 study countries. Study limitations include variation in country survey methods, most notably the sample age range and year of data collection, insufficient data to use the laboratory-based CVD risk equations, and an inability to determine past history of a CVD diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study found underuse of guideline-indicated BP medication in people with elevated CVD risk and overuse by people with lower CVD risk. Country-specific targeted policies are needed to help improve the identification and management of those at highest CVD risk.

Validation of the Arabic Severe Respiratory Insufficiency Questionnaire.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Assessment of Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQL) in patients with chronic respiratory insufficiency requiring Home Mechanical Ventilation (HMV) requires a valid measurement tool. The Severe Respiratory Insufficiency (SRI) questionnaire, originally developed in German, has been translated into different languages and tested in different contexts, but has so far not been in use in Arabic-speaking populations. The objective of this study is to validate the Arabic version of the SRI questionnaire in a sample of Arabic-speaking patients from Lebanon. METHODS: Following forward/backward translations, the finalized Arabic version was administered to 149 patients (53 males-96 females, age 69.80 ± 10 years) receiving HMV. Patients were recruited from outpatient clinics and visited at home. The Arabic SRI and the 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) were administered, in addition to questions on sociodemographics and medical history. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) was used to explore dimensionality; internal consistency reliability of the unidimensional scale and its subscales was assessed using Cronbach's alpha. External nomological validity was examined by assessing the correlation between the SRI and SF-36 scores. RESULTS: The 49-item Arabic SRI scale showed a high internal consistency reliability (Cronbach alpha for the total scale was 0.897 and ranged between 0.73 and 0.87 for all subscales). Correlations between the SF-36-Mental Health Component MHC and SF-36-Physical Health Component with SRI-Summary Scale were 0.57 and 0.66, respectively, with higher correlations observed between the SF-36 and specific sub-scales such as the Physical Functioning and the Social Functioning subscales [r = 0.81 and r = 0.74 (P < 0.01), respectively]. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS: The Arabic SRI is a reliable and valid tool for assessing HRQL in patients with chronic respiratory insufficiency receiving home mechanical ventilation.

Tobacco Research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: A Scoping Review of Published Studies from Seven Countries.

While surveillance on a global scale has been showing a decline in tobacco smoking in the past decade, rates in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) remained stable with some countries showing rising trends. This study aimed to analyze the landscape of tobacco research in the EMR, present data on publication trends, and identify research gaps and opportunities to guide future tobacco research in the region. We conducted a scoping review of tobacco research in seven countries from January 2000 to December 2013. Three hundred and forty eight studies were identified, the majority of which were published in international journals and in English language. There was an increase in publications over time, with a significant positive linear trend (p = 0.03). Descriptive cross-sectional and case-control studies were the most common study designs (67.0%), and only 8% were longitudinal studies. Papers that reported, in part or solely, on waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) constituted 25.6% of the total publication pool. Tobacco consumption was treated as an exposure variable in half of the papers and mostly in relation to cancer and cardiovascular diseases, as an outcome measure in 37.7%, and as a confounding variable in 14.7% of the papers. Studies that examined associations of tobacco with other behaviors (5.3%) were lacking. The scarcity of high-evidence tobacco research in the EMR, together with the relatively deficient data on WTS and associations with other factors warrant the need for discussions on research priority setting and guidance on funding allocations in the region.

Association between country preparedness indicators and quality clinical care for cardiovascular disease risk factors in 44 lower- and middle-income countries: A multicountry analysis of survey data.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases are leading causes of death, globally, and health systems that deliver quality clinical care are needed to manage an increasing number of people with risk factors for these diseases. Indicators of preparedness of countries to manage cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVDRFs) are regularly collected by ministries of health and global health agencies. We aimed to assess whether these indicators are associated with patient receipt of quality clinical care. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We did a secondary analysis of cross-sectional, nationally representative, individual-patient data from 187,552 people with hypertension (mean age 48.1 years, 53.5% female) living in 43 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and 40,795 people with diabetes (mean age 52.2 years, 57.7% female) living in 28 LMICs on progress through cascades of care (condition diagnosed, treated, or controlled) for diabetes or hypertension, to indicate outcomes of provision of quality clinical care. Data were extracted from national-level World Health Organization (WHO) Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS), or other similar household surveys, conducted between July 2005 and November 2016. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to estimate associations between each quality clinical care outcome and indicators of country development (gross domestic product [GDP] per capita or Human Development Index [HDI]); national capacity for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases ('NCD readiness indicators' from surveys done by WHO); health system finance (domestic government expenditure on health [as percentage of GDP], private, and out-of-pocket expenditure on health [both as percentage of current]); and health service readiness (number of physicians, nurses, or hospital beds per 1,000 people) and performance (neonatal mortality rate). All models were adjusted for individual-level predictors including age, sex, and education. In an exploratory analysis, we tested whether national-level data on facility preparedness for diabetes were positively associated with outcomes. Associations were inconsistent between indicators and quality clinical care outcomes. For hypertension, GDP and HDI were both positively associated with each outcome. Of the 33 relationships tested between NCD readiness indicators and outcomes, only two showed a significant positive association: presence of guidelines with being diagnosed (odds ratio [OR], 1.86 [95% CI 1.08-3.21], p = 0.03) and availability of funding with being controlled (OR, 2.26 [95% CI 1.09-4.69], p = 0.03). Hospital beds (OR, 1.14 [95% CI 1.02-1.27], p = 0.02), nurses/midwives (OR, 1.24 [95% CI 1.06-1.44], p = 0.006), and physicians (OR, 1.21 [95% CI 1.11-1.32], p < 0.001) per 1,000 people were positively associated with being diagnosed and, similarly, with being treated; and the number of physicians was additionally associated with being controlled (OR, 1.12 [95% CI 1.01-1.23], p = 0.03). For diabetes, no positive associations were seen between NCD readiness indicators and outcomes. There was no association between country development, health service finance, or health service performance and readiness indicators and any outcome, apart from GDP (OR, 1.70 [95% CI 1.12-2.59], p = 0.01), HDI (OR, 1.21 [95% CI 1.01-1.44], p = 0.04), and number of physicians per 1,000 people (OR, 1.28 [95% CI 1.09-1.51], p = 0.003), which were associated with being diagnosed. Six countries had data on cascades of care and nationwide-level data on facility preparedness. Of the 27 associations tested between facility preparedness indicators and outcomes, the only association that was significant was having metformin available, which was positively associated with treatment (OR, 1.35 [95% CI 1.01-1.81], p = 0.04). The main limitation was use of blood pressure measurement on a single occasion to diagnose hypertension and a single blood glucose measurement to diagnose diabetes. CONCLUSION: In this study, we observed that indicators of country preparedness to deal with CVDRFs are poor proxies for quality clinical care received by patients for hypertension and diabetes. The major implication is that assessments of countries' preparedness to manage CVDRFs should not rely on proxies; rather, it should involve direct assessment of quality clinical care.

The state of hypertension care in 44 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of nationally representative individual-level data from 1·1 million adults.

BACKGROUND: Evidence from nationally representative studies in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) on where in the hypertension care continuum patients are lost to care is sparse. This information, however, is essential for effective targeting of interventions by health services and monitoring progress in improving hypertension care. We aimed to determine the cascade of hypertension care in 44 LMICs-and its variation between countries and population groups-by dividing the progression in the care process, from need of care to successful treatment, into discrete stages and measuring the losses at each stage. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we pooled individual-level population-based data from 44 LMICs. We first searched for nationally representative datasets from the WHO Stepwise Approach to Surveillance (STEPS) from 2005 or later. If a STEPS dataset was not available for a LMIC (or we could not gain access to it), we conducted a systematic search for survey datasets; the inclusion criteria in these searches were that the survey was done in 2005 or later, was nationally representative for at least three 10-year age groups older than 15 years, included measured blood pressure data, and contained data on at least two hypertension care cascade steps. Hypertension was defined as a systolic blood pressure of at least 140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure of at least 90 mm Hg, or reported use of medication for hypertension. Among those with hypertension, we calculated the proportion of individuals who had ever had their blood pressure measured; had been diagnosed with hypertension; had been treated for hypertension; and had achieved control of their hypertension. We weighted countries proportionally to their population size when determining this hypertension care cascade at the global and regional level. We disaggregated the hypertension care cascade by age, sex, education, household wealth quintile, body-mass index, smoking status, country, and region. We used linear regression to predict, separately for each cascade step, a country's performance based on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, allowing us to identify countries whose performance fell outside of the 95% prediction interval. FINDINGS: Our pooled dataset included 1 100 507 participants, of whom 192 441 (17·5%) had hypertension. Among those with hypertension, 73·6% of participants (95% CI 72·9-74·3) had ever had their blood pressure measured, 39·2% of participants (38·2-40·3) had been diagnosed with hypertension, 29·9% of participants (28·6-31·3) received treatment, and 10·3% of participants (9·6-11·0) achieved control of their hypertension. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean generally achieved the best performance relative to their predicted performance based on GDP per capita, whereas countries in sub-Saharan Africa performed worst. Bangladesh, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan, and Peru performed significantly better on all care cascade steps than predicted based on GDP per capita. Being a woman, older, more educated, wealthier, and not being a current smoker were all positively associated with attaining each of the four steps of the care cascade. INTERPRETATION: Our study provides important evidence for the design and targeting of health policies and service interventions for hypertension in LMICs. We show at what steps and for whom there are gaps in the hypertension care process in each of the 44 countries in our study. We also identified countries in each world region that perform better than expected from their economic development, which can direct policy makers to important policy lessons. Given the high disease burden caused by hypertension in LMICs, nationally representative hypertension care cascades, as constructed in this study, are an important measure of progress towards achieving universal health coverage. FUNDING: Harvard McLennan Family Fund, Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

Non-communicable diseases research output in the Eastern Mediterranean region: an overview of systematic reviews.

BACKGROUND: Rates of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rapidly rising in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). Systematic reviews satisfy the demand from practitioners and policy makers for prompt comprehensive evidence. The aim of this study is to review trends in NCD systematic reviews research output and quality by time and place, describe design and focus, and examine gaps in knowledge produced. METHODS: Using the Montori et al. systematic reviews filter, MeSH and keywords were applied to search Medline Ovid, Cochrane Central and Epistemonikos for publications from 1996 until 2015 in the 22 countries of the EMR. The 'Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews', AMSTAR, was used to assess the methodological quality of the papers. RESULTS: Our search yielded 2439 papers for abstract and title screening, and 89 papers for full text screening. A total of 39 (43.8%) studies included meta-analysis. Most of the papers were judged as being of low AMSTAR quality (83.2%), and only one paper was judged as being of high AMSTAR quality. Whilst annual number of papers increased over the years, the growth was mainly attributed to an increase in low-quality publications approaching in 2015 over four times the number of medium-quality publications. Reviews were significantly more likely to be characterized by higher AMSTAR scores (±SD) when meta-analysis was performed compared to when meta-analysis was not performed (3.4 ± 1.5 vs 2.6 ± 2.0; p-value = 0.034); and when critical appraisal of the included studies was conducted (4.3 ± 2.3 vs 2.5 ± 1.5; p-value = 0.004). Most of the reviews focused on cancer and diabetes as an outcome (25.8% and 24.7%, respectively), and on smoking, dietary habits and physical activity as exposures (15.7%, 12.4%, 9.0%, respectively). There was a blatant deficit in reviews examining associations between behaviors and physiologic factors, notably metabolic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic reviews research in the EMR region are overwhelmingly of low quality, with gaps in the literature for studies on cardiovascular disease and on associations between behavioral factors and intermediary physiologic parameters. This study raises awareness of the need for high-quality evidence guided by locally driven research agenda responsive to emerging needs in countries of the EMR.

Lessons learned in the provision NCD primary care to Syrian refugee and host communities in Lebanon: the need to 'act locally and think globally'.

BACKGROUND: Prevention and control of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) remain inadequate in resource-scarce countries, particularly in conflict situations. This paper describes a multicomponent intervention for management of hypertension and diabetes among older adult Syrian refugees and the Lebanese host community and reflects on challenges for scaling up NCD integration into primary care in humanitarian situations. METHODS: Using a mixed method approach, the study focused on monitoring and evaluation of the three components of the intervention: healthcare physical facilities and documentation processes, provider knowledge and guideline-concordant performance, and refugee and host community awareness. RESULTS: Findings revealed overall high compliance of healthcare workers with completing data collection forms. Their knowledge of basic aspects of hypertension/diabetes management was adequate, but diagnosis knowledge was low. Patients and healthcare providers voiced satisfaction with the program. Yet, interruptions in medicines' supplies and lapses in care were perceived by all study groups alike as the most problematic aspect of the program. CONCLUSIONS: Our intervention program was aligned with internationally agreed-upon practices, yet, our experiences in the field point to the need for more 'local testing' of modified interventions within such contexts. This can then inform 'thinking globally' on guidelines for the delivery of NCD care in crisis settings.

A scoping review of reporting 'Ethical Research Practices' in research conducted among refugees and war-affected populations in the Arab world.

BACKGROUND: Ethical research conduct is a cornerstone of research practice particularly when research participants include vulnerable populations. This study mapped the extent of reporting ethical research practices in studies conducted among refugees and war-affected populations in the Arab World, and assessed variations by time, country of study, and study characteristics. METHODS: An electronic search of eight databases resulted in 5668 unique records published between 2000 and 2013. Scoping review yielded 164 eligible articles for analyses. RESULTS: Ethical research practices, including obtaining institutional approval, access to the community/research site, and informed consent/assent from the research participants, were reported in 48.2, 54.9, and 53.7% of the publications, respectively. Institutional approval was significantly more likely to be reported when the research was biomedical in nature compared to public health and social (91.7% vs. 54.4 and 32.4%), when the study employed quantitative compared to qualitative or mixed methodologies (61.7% vs. 26.8 and 42.9%), and when the journal required a statement on ethical declarations (57.4% vs. 27.1%). Institutional approval was least likely to be reported in papers that were sole-authored (9.5%), when these did not mention a funding source (29.6%), or when published in national journals (0%). Similar results were obtained for access to the community site and for seeking informed consent/assent from study participants. CONCLUSIONS: The responsibility of inadequacies in adherence to ethical research conduct in crisis settings is born by a multitude of stakeholders including funding agencies, institutional research boards, researchers and international relief organizations involved in research, as well as journal editors, all of whom need to play a more proactive role for enhancing the practice of ethical research conduct in conflict settings.

Potential use of telephone surveys for non-communicable disease surveillance in developing countries: evidence from a national household survey in Lebanon.

BACKGROUND: Given the worldwide proliferation of cellphones, this paper examines their potential use for the surveillance of non-communicable disease (NCD) risk factors in a Middle Eastern country. METHODS: Data were derived from a national household survey of 2,656 adults (aged 18 years or older) in Lebanon in 2009. Responses to questions on phone ownership yielded two subsamples, the 'cell phone sample' (n = 1,404) and the 'any phone sample' (n = 2,158). Prevalence estimates of various socio-demographics and 11 key NCD risk factors and comorbidities were compared between each subsample and the overall household sample. RESULTS: Adjusting for baseline age and sex distribution, no differences were observed for all NCD indicators when comparing either of subsamples to the overall household sample, except for binge drinking [(OR = 1.55, 95 % CI: 1.33-1.81) and (OR = 1.48, 95 % CI: 1.18-1.85) for 'cell phone subsample' and 'any phone subsample', respectively] and self-rated health (OR = 1.23, 95 % CI: 1.10-1.36) and (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI: 1.02-1.32), respectively). Differences in the odds of hyperlipidemia (OR = 1.27, 95 % CI: 1.06-1.51) was also found in the subsample of 'any phone' carriers. CONCLUSIONS: Multi-mode telephone surveillance techniques provide viable alternative to face-to-face surveys in developing countries. Cell phones may also be useful for personalized public health and medical care interventions in young populations.

Life stressors and psychological well-being. Does Access to Health Care Help the Older Lebanese?

Health care should protect against the detrimental effects of stress on psychological well-being by providing both direct and indirect benefits. Using a sample of 490 older Lebanese (age 60 and over), this study examines whether access to and utilization of medical care buffer the impact of specific stressors on depressive symptoms. Findings show that access to medical care is associated with depressive symptoms for those who experienced recent death, serious accident and health-related stressors and that limited access increases depression for those exposed to recent violent stressors. The saliency of health-related events may be associated with health care access which is imposed under distressing contexts, likely worsening psychological well-being.

Predicting poor mental health among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nested cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened pre-existing vulnerabilities among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon, potentially impacting their mental health. The study aims to describe the evolution of poor mental health over time and to develop and internally validate a prediction model for poor mental health among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon. METHODS: This prognostic study used cross-sectional data from a multiwave telephone survey in Lebanon. It was conducted among all Syrian refugees aged 50 years or older from households that received assistance from a humanitarian organisation. Data were collected between 22 September 2020 and 20 January 2021. Poor mental health was defined as a Mental Health Inventory-5 score of 60 or less. The predictors were identified using backwards stepwise logistic regression. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping. The calibration of the model was presented using the calibration slope (C-slope), and the discrimination was presented using the optimised adjusted C-statistic. RESULTS: There were 3229 participants (median age=56 years (IQR=53-62)) and 47.5% were female. The prevalence of poor mental health was 76.7%. Predictors for poor mental health were younger age, food insecurity, water insecurity, lack of legal residency documentation, irregular employment, higher intensity of bodily pain, having debt and having chronic illnesses. The final model demonstrated good discriminative ability (C-statistic: 0.69 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.72)) and calibration (C-slope 0.93 (95%CI 0.82 to 1.07)). CONCLUSION: Mental health predictors were related to basic needs, rights and financial barriers. These allow humanitarian organisations to identify high-risk individuals, organise interventions and address root causes to boost resilience and well-being among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

The role of gender in the association of social capital, social support, and economic security with self-rated health among older adults in deprived communities in Beirut.

PURPOSE: To examine gender variations in the association of self-rated health (SRH) with social capital, social support, and economic security among older adults from three deprived communities in the suburbs of metropolitan Beirut. METHODS: A population-based cross-sectional study using the Older Adult Component of the Urban Health Survey. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 328 older men and 412 older women aged 60 years and above. SRH was assessed by a single question and treated as a dichotomous outcome, and several indicators of social capital, social support, and economic security were examined as independent variables. RESULTS: Women were significantly more likely to report poor SRH compared to men (37.2 vs. 25.9 %, respectively). Better social capital indicators decreased significantly the odds of poor SRH among both men (OR = 0.76, 95 % CI: 0.65-0.89) and women (OR = 0.71, 95 % CI: 0.62-0.82). Social support was strongly associated with SRH among women (OR = 0.56), but not among men (OR = 0.94). The reverse situation was observed for economic security (OR = 0.57 among men, OR = 0.80 among women). CONCLUSIONS: In these deprived neighborhoods, social and economic factors may have gender-specific effects on the promotion of well-being among older adults, with social support being more salient to women's SRH and economic security being more salient to men's SRH. In health studies among older people, SRH captures not only social and physical health but also broader economic well-being.

Diabetes risk and provision of diabetes prevention activities in 44 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative, individual-level survey data.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of diabetes is rising rapidly, yet there is little evidence on individual-level diabetes prevention activities undertaken by health systems in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we describe the population at high risk of developing diabetes, estimate diabetes prevention activities, and explore sociodemographic variation in these activities across LMICs. METHODS: We performed a pooled, cross-sectional analysis of individual-level data from nationally representative, population-based surveys conducted in 44 LMICs between October, 2009, and May, 2019. Our sample included all participants older than 25 years who did not have diabetes and were not pregnant. We defined the population at high risk of diabetes on the basis of either the presence of impaired fasting glucose (or prediabetes in countries with a haemoglobin A1c available) or overweight or obesity, consistent with the WHO Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Guidelines for type 2 diabetes management. We estimated the proportion of survey participants that were at high risk of developing diabetes based on this definition. We also estimated the proportion of the population at high risk that reported each of four fundamental diabetes prevention activities: physical activity counselling, weight loss counselling, dietary counselling, and blood glucose screening, overall and stratified by World Bank income group. Finally, we used multivariable Poisson regression models to evaluate associations between sociodemographic characteristics and these activities. FINDINGS: The final pooled sample included 145 739 adults (86 269 [59·2%] of whom were female and 59 468 [40·4%] of whom were male) across 44 LMICs, of whom 59 308 (40·6% [95% CI 38·5-42·8]) were considered at high risk of diabetes (20·6% [19·8-21·5] in low-income countries, 38·0% [37·2-38·9] in lower-middle-income countries, and 57·5% [54·3-60·6] in upper-middle-income countries). Overall, the reach of diabetes prevention activities was low at 40·0% (38·6-41·4) for physical activity counselling, 37·1% (35·9-38·4) for weight loss counselling, 42·7% (41·6-43·7) for dietary counselling, and 37·1% (34·7-39·6) for blood glucose screening. Diabetes prevention varied widely by national-level wealth: 68·1% (64·6-71·4) of people at high risk of diabetes in low-income countries reported none of these activities, whereas 49·0% (47·4-50·7) at high risk in upper-middle-income countries reported at least three activities. Educational attainment was associated with diabetes prevention, with estimated increases in the predicted probability of receipt ranging between 6·5 (3·6-9·4) percentage points for dietary fruit and vegetable counselling and 21·3 (19·5-23·2) percentage points for blood glucose screening, among people with some secondary schooling compared with people with no formal education. INTERPRETATION: A large proportion of individuals across LMICs are at high risk of diabetes but less than half reported receiving fundamental prevention activities overall, with the lowest receipt of these activities among people in low-income countries and with no formal education. These findings offer foundational evidence to inform future global targets for diabetes prevention and to strengthen policies and programmes to prevent continued increases in diabetes worldwide. FUNDING: Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health McLennan Fund: Dean's Challenge Grant Program and the EU's Research and Innovation programme Horizon 2020.

Diagnostic testing for hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolaemia in low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of data for 994 185 individuals from 57 nationally representative surveys.

BACKGROUND: Testing for the risk factors of cardiovascular disease, which include hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolaemia, is important for timely and effective risk management. Yet few studies have quantified and analysed testing of cardiovascular risk factors in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) with respect to sociodemographic inequalities. We aimed to address this knowledge gap. METHODS: In this cross-sectional analysis, we pooled individual-level data for non-pregnant adults aged 18 years or older from nationally representative surveys done between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019 in LMICs that included a question about whether respondents had ever had their blood pressure, glucose, or cholesterol measured. We analysed diagnostic testing performance by quantifying the overall proportion of people who had ever been tested for these cardiovascular risk factors and the proportion of individuals who met the diagnostic testing criteria in the WHO package of essential noncommunicable disease interventions for primary care (PEN) guidelines (ie, a BMI >30 kg/m2 or a BMI >25 kg/m2 among people aged 40 years or older). We disaggregated and compared diagnostic testing performance by sex, wealth quintile, and education using two-sided t tests and multivariable logistic regression models. FINDINGS: Our sample included data for 994 185 people from 57 surveys. 19·1% (95% CI 18·5-19·8) of the 943 259 people in the hypertension sample met the WHO PEN criteria for diagnostic testing, of whom 78·6% (77·8-79·2) were tested. 23·8% (23·4-24·3) of the 225 707 people in the diabetes sample met the WHO PEN criteria for diagnostic testing, of whom 44·9% (43·7-46·2) were tested. Finally, 27·4% (26·3-28·6) of the 250 573 people in the hypercholesterolaemia sample met the WHO PEN criteria for diagnostic testing, of whom 39·7% (37·1-2·4) were tested. Women were more likely than men to be tested for hypertension and diabetes, and people in higher wealth quintiles compared with those in the lowest wealth quintile were more likely to be tested for all three risk factors, as were people with at least secondary education compared with those with less than primary education. INTERPRETATION: Our study shows opportunities for health systems in LMICs to improve the targeting of diagnostic testing for cardiovascular risk factors and adherence to diagnostic testing guidelines. Risk-factor-based testing recommendations rather than sociodemographic characteristics should determine which individuals are tested. FUNDING: Harvard McLennan Family Fund, the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the US National Institutes of Health.

The Influence of Female Reproductive Factors on Longevity: A Systematized Narrative Review of Epidemiological Studies.

Purpose: This systematized review presents a synthesis of epidemiological studies that examine the association between female reproductive factors and longevity indicators. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was conducted using four bibliographic databases: OVID Medline, Web of Science, PubMed, and Google Scholar, including English language articles published until March 2022. Results from the search strategy yielded 306 articles, 37 of which were included for review based on eligibility criteria. Results were identified within the following nine themes: endogenous androgens and estrogens, age at first childbirth, age at last childbirth, parity, reproductive lifespan, menopause-related factors, hormone therapy use, age at menarche, and offspring gender. Results: Evidence that links reproductive factors and long lifespan is limited. Several female reproductive factors are shown to be significantly associated with longevity, yet findings remain inconclusive. The most consistent association was between parity (fertility and fecundity) and increased female lifespan. Age at first birth and parity were consistently associated with increased longevity. Associations between age at menarche and menopause, premature menopause, reproductive lifespan, offspring gender and longevity are inconclusive. Conclusion: There is not enough evidence to consider sex a longevity predictor. To understand the mechanisms that predict longevity outcomes, it is imperative to consider sex-specific within-population differences.

Injury burden in individuals aged 50 years or older in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: Injury poses a major threat to health and longevity in adults aged 50 years or older. The increased life expectancy in the Eastern Mediterranean region warrants a further understanding of the ageing population's inevitable changing health demands and challenges. We aimed to examine injury-related morbidity and mortality among adults aged 50 years or older in 22 Eastern Mediterranean countries. Methods: Drawing on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we categorised the population into adults aged 50-69 years and adults aged 70 years and older. We examined estimates for transport injuries, self-harm injuries, and unintentional injuries for both age groups, with sex differences reported, and analysed the percentage changes from 1990 to 2019. We reported injury-related mortality rates and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index were used to better understand the association of socioeconomic factors and health-care system performance, respectively, with injuries and health status in older people. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was compared with injury-related deaths and DALYs and to the SDI and HAQ Index to understand the effect of injuries on healthy ageing. Finally, risk factors for injury deaths between 1990 and 2019 were assessed. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) are given for all estimates. Findings: Estimated injury mortality rates in the Eastern Mediterranean region exceeded the global rates in 2019, with higher injury mortality rates in males than in females for both age groups. Transport injuries were the leading cause of deaths in adults aged 50-69 years (43·0 [95% UI 31·0-51·8] per 100 000 population) and in adults aged 70 years or older (66·2 [52·5-75·5] per 100 000 population), closely followed by conflict and terrorism for both age groups (10·2 [9·3-11·3] deaths per 100 000 population for 50-69 years and 45·7 [41·5-50·3] deaths per 100 000 population for ≥70 years). The highest annual percentage change in mortality rates due to injury was observed in Afghanistan among people aged 70 years or older (400·4% increase; mortality rate 1109·7 [1017·7-1214·7] per 100 000 population). The leading cause of DALYs was transport injuries for people aged 50-69 years (1798·8 [1394·1-2116·0] per 100 000 population) and unintentional injuries for those aged 70 years or older (2013·2 [1682·2-2408·7] per 100 000 population). The estimates for HALE at 50 years and at 70 years in the Eastern Mediterranean region were lower than global estimates. Eastern Mediterranean countries with the lowest SDIs and HAQ Index values had high prevalence of injury DALYs and ranked the lowest for HALE at 50 years of age and HALE at 70 years. The leading injury mortality risk factors were occupational exposure in people aged 50-69 years and low bone mineral density in those aged 70 years or older. Interpretation: Injuries still pose a real threat to people aged 50 years or older living in the Eastern Mediterranean region, mainly due to transport and violence-related injuries. Dedicated efforts should be implemented to devise injury prevention strategies that are appropriate for older adults and cost-effective injury programmes tailored to the needs and resources of local health-care systems, and to curtail injury-associated risk and promote healthy ageing. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Development of a Prediction Model for the Management of Noncommunicable Diseases Among Older Syrian Refugees Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic in Lebanon.

Importance: Older Syrian refugees have a high burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and economic vulnerability. Objectives: To develop and internally validate a predictive model to estimate inability to manage NCDs in older Syrian refugees, and to describe barriers to NCD medication adherence. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nested prognostic cross-sectional study was conducted through telephone surveys between September 2020 and January 2021. All households in Lebanon with Syrian refugees aged 50 years or older and who received humanitarian assistance from a nongovernmental organization were invited to participate. Refugees who self-reported having chronic respiratory disease (CRD), diabetes, history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), or hypertension were included in the analysis. Data were analyzed from November 2021 to March 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was self-reported inability to manage any NCD (including CRD, CVD, diabetes, or hypertension). Predictors of inability to manage any NCD were assessed using logistic regression models. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques, which gave an estimate of optimism. The optimism-adjusted discrimination is presented using the C statistic, and calibration of the model is presented using calibration slope (C slope). Results: Of 3322 older Syrian refugees, 1893 individuals (median [IQR] age, 59 [54-65] years; 1089 [57.5%] women) reported having at least 1 NCD, among whom 351 (10.6% overall; 18.6% of those with ≥1 NCD) had CRD, 781 (23.7% overall; 41.4% of those with ≥1 NCD) had diabetes, 794 (24.1% overall; 42.2% of those with ≥1 NCD) had history of CVD, and 1388 (42.3% overall; 73.6% of those with ≥1 NCD) had hypertension. Among individuals with NCDs, 387 participants (20.4%) were unable to manage at least 1 of their NCDs. Predictors for inability to manage NCDs were age, nonreceipt of cash assistance, household water insecurity, household food insecurity, and having multiple chronic diseases, with an adjusted C statistic of 0.650 (95% CI, 0.620-0.676) and C slope of 0.871 (95% CI, 0.729-1.023). The prevalence of nonadherence to medication was 9.2%, and the main reasons for nonadherence were unaffordability of medication (40.8%; 95% CI, 33.4%-48.5%) and the belief that they no longer required the medication after feeling better (22.4%; 95% CI, 16.4%-29.3%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, the predictors of inability to manage NCDs among older Syrian refugees in Lebanon were mainly related to financial barriers. Context-appropriate assistance is required to overcome financial barriers and enable equitable access to medication and health care.

The Association of Socioeconomic Status With Hypertension in 76 Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

BACKGROUND: Effective equity-focused health policy for hypertension in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) requires an understanding of the condition's current socioeconomic gradients and how these are likely to change in the future as countries develop economically. OBJECTIVES: This cross-sectional study aimed to determine how hypertension prevalence in LMICs varies by individuals' education and household wealth, and how these socioeconomic gradients in hypertension prevalence are associated with a country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. METHODS: We pooled nationally representative household survey data from 76 LMICs. We disaggregated hypertension prevalence by education and household wealth quintile, and used regression analyses to adjust for age and sex. RESULTS: We included 1,211,386 participants in the analysis. Pooling across all countries, hypertension prevalence tended to be similar between education groups and household wealth quintiles. The only world region with a clear positive association of hypertension with education or household wealth quintile was Southeast Asia. Countries with a lower GDP per capita had, on average, a more positive association of hypertension with education and household wealth quintile than countries with a higher GDP per capita, especially in rural areas and among men. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in hypertension prevalence between socioeconomic groups were generally small, with even the least educated and least wealthy groups having a substantial hypertension prevalence. Our cross-sectional interaction analyses of GDP per capita with the socioeconomic gradients of hypertension suggest that hypertension may increasingly affect adults in the lowest socioeconomic groups as LMICs develop economically.