Toward a Semi-Supervised Learning Approach to Phylogenetic Estimation.

Models have always been central to inferring molecular evolution and to reconstructing phylogenetic trees. Their use typically involves the development of a mechanistic framework reflecting our understanding of the underlying biological processes, such as nucleotide substitutions, and the estimation of model parameters by maximum likelihood or Bayesian inference. However, deriving and optimizing the likelihood of the data is not always possible under complex evolutionary scenarios or even tractable for large datasets, often leading to unrealistic simplifying assumptions in the fitted models. To overcome this issue, we coupled stochastic simulations of genome evolution with a new supervised deep-learning model to infer key parameters of molecular evolution. Our model is designed to directly analyze multiple sequence alignments and estimate per-site evolutionary rates and divergence without requiring a known phylogenetic tree. The accuracy of our predictions matched that of likelihood-based phylogenetic inference when rate heterogeneity followed a simple gamma distribution, but it strongly exceeded it under more complex patterns of rate variation, such as codon models. Our approach is highly scalable and can be efficiently applied to genomic data, as we showed on a dataset of 26 million nucleotides from the clownfish clade. Our simulations also showed that the integration of per-site rates obtained by deep learning within a Bayesian framework led to significantly more accurate phylogenetic inference, particularly with respect to the estimated branch lengths. We thus propose that future advancements in phylogenetic analysis will benefit from a semi-supervised learning approach that combines deep-learning estimation of substitution rates, which allows for more flexible models of rate variation, and probabilistic inference of the phylogenetic tree, which guarantees interpretability and a rigorous assessment of statistical support.

Exploring the Macroevolutionary Signature of Asymmetric Inheritance at Speciation.

Popular comparative phylogenetic models such as Brownian Motion, Ornstein-Ulhenbeck, and their extensions, assume that, at speciation, a trait value is inherited identically by two descendant species. This assumption contrasts with models of speciation at a micro-evolutionary scale where descendants' phenotypic distributions are sub-samples of the ancestral distribution. Different speciation mechanisms can lead to a displacement of the ancestral phenotypic mean among descendants and an asymmetric inheritance of the ancestral phenotypic variance. In contrast, even macro-evolutionary models that account for intraspecific variance assume symmetrically conserved inheritance of ancestral phenotypic distribution at speciation. Here we develop an Asymmetric Brownian Motion model (ABM) that relaxes the assumption of symmetric and conserved inheritance of the ancestral distribution at the time of speciation. The ABM jointly models the evolution of both intra- and inter-specific phenotypic variation. It also infers the mode of phenotypic inheritance at speciation, which can range from a symmetric and conserved inheritance, where descendants inherit the ancestral distribution, to an asymmetric and displaced inheritance, where descendants inherit divergent phenotypic means and variances. To demonstrate this model, we analyze the evolution of beak morphology in Darwin finches, finding evidence of displacement at speciation. The ABM model helps to bridge micro- and macro-evolutionary models of trait evolution by providing a more robust framework for testing the effects of ecological speciation, character displacement, and niche partitioning on trait evolution at the macro-evolutionary scale.

Patterns and drivers of heat production in the plant genus Amorphophallus.

Thermogenesis - the ability to generate metabolic heat - is much more common in animals than in plants, but it has been documented in several plant families, most prominently the Araceae. Metabolic heat is produced in floral organs during the flowering time (anthesis), with the hypothesised primary functions being to increase scent volatilisation for pollinator attraction, and/or to provide a heat reward for invertebrate pollinators. Despite in-depth studies on the thermogenesis of single species, no attempts have yet been made to examine plant thermogenesis across an entire clade. Here, we apply time-series clustering algorithms to 119 measurements of the full thermogenic patterns in inflorescences of 80 Amorphophallus species. We infer a new time-calibrated phylogeny of this genus and use phylogenetic comparative methods to investigate the evolutionary determinants of thermogenesis. We find striking phenotypic variation across the phylogeny, with heat production in multiple clades reaching up to 15°C, and in one case 21.7°C above ambient temperature. Our results show that the thermogenic capacity is phylogenetically conserved and is also associated with inflorescence thickness. Our study paves the way for further investigations of the eco-evolutionary benefits of thermogenesis in plants.

Two Major Extinction Events in the Evolutionary History of Turtles: One Caused by an Asteroid, the Other by Hominins.

AbstractWe live in a time of accelerated biological extinctions that has the potential to mirror past mass extinction events. However, the rarity of mass extinctions and the restructuring of diversity they cause complicate direct comparisons between the current extinction crisis and earlier events. Among animals, turtles (Testudinata) are one of few groups that have both a rich fossil record and sufficiently stable ecological and functional roles to enable meaningful comparisons between the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (∼66 Ma) and the ongoing wave of extinctions. Here we analyze the fossil record of the entire turtle clade and identify two peaks in extinction rates over their evolutionary history. The first coincides with the Cretaceous-Paleogene transition, reflecting patterns previously reported for other taxa. The second major extinction event started in the Pliocene and continues until now. This peak is detectable only for terrestrial turtles and started much earlier in Africa and Eurasia than elsewhere. On the basis of the timing, geography, and functional group of this extinction event, we postulate a link to co-occurring hominins rather than climate change as the cause. These results lend further support to the view that negative biodiversity impacts were already incurred by our ancestors and related lineages and demonstrate the severity of this continued impact through human activities.

Reliable biogeography requires fossils: insights from a new species-level phylogeny of extinct and living carnivores.

A central objective of historical biogeography is to understand where clades originated and how they moved across space and over time. However, given the dynamic history of ecosystem changes in response to climate change and geological events, the manifold long-distance dispersals over evolutionary timescales, and regional and global extinctions, it remains uncertain how reliable inferences based solely on extant taxa can be achieved. Using a novel species-level phylogeny of all known extant and extinct species of the mammalian order Carnivora and related extinct groups, we show that far more precise and accurate ancestral areas can be estimated by fully integrating extinct species into the analyses, rather than solely relying on extant species or identifying ancestral areas only based on the geography of the oldest fossils. Through a series of simulations, we further show that this conclusion is robust under realistic scenarios in which the unknown extinct taxa represent a biased subset of all extinct species. Our results highlight the importance of integrating fossil taxa into a phylogenetic framework to further improve our understanding of historical biogeography and reveal the dynamic dispersal and diversification history of carnivores.

Plant diversity darkspots for global collection priorities.

More than 15% of all vascular plant species may remain scientifically undescribed, and many of the > 350 000 described species have no or few geographic records documenting their distribution. Identifying and understanding taxonomic and geographic knowledge shortfalls is key to prioritising future collection and conservation efforts. Using extensive data for 343 523 vascular plant species and time-to-event analyses, we conducted multiple tests related to plant taxonomic and geographic data shortfalls, and identified 33 global diversity darkspots (those 'botanical countries' predicted to contain most undescribed and not yet recorded species). We defined priority regions for future collection according to several socio-economic and environmental scenarios. Most plant diversity darkspots are found within global biodiversity hotspots, with the exception of New Guinea. We identify Colombia, Myanmar, New Guinea, Peru, Philippines and Turkey as global collection priorities under all environmental and socio-economic conditions considered. Our study provides a flexible framework to help accelerate the documentation of global plant diversity for the implementation of conservation actions. As digitisation of the world's herbaria progresses, collection and conservation priorities may soon be identifiable at finer scales.

Light, rather than circadian rhythm, regulates gas exchange in ferns and lycophytes.

Circadian regulation plays a vital role in optimizing plant responses to the environment. However, while circadian regulation has been extensively studied in angiosperms, very little is known for lycophytes and ferns, leaving a gap in our understanding of the evolution of circadian rhythms across the plant kingdom. Here, we investigated circadian regulation in gas exchange through stomatal conductance and photosynthetic efficiency in a phylogenetically broad panel of 21 species of lycophytes and ferns over a 46 h period under constant light and a selected few under more natural conditions with day-night cycles. No rhythm was detected under constant light for either lycophytes or ferns, except for two semi-aquatic species of the family Marsileaceae (Marsilea azorica and Regnellidium diphyllum), which showed rhythms in stomatal conductance. Furthermore, these results indicated the presence of a light-driven stomatal control for ferns and lycophytes, with a possible passive fine-tuning through leaf water status adjustments. These findings support previous evidence for the fundamentally different regulation of gas exchange in lycophytes and ferns compared to angiosperms, and they suggest the presence of alternative stomatal regulations in Marsileaceae, an aquatic family already well known for numerous other distinctive physiological traits. Overall, our study provides evidence for heterogeneous circadian regulation across plant lineages, highlighting the importance of broad taxonomic scope in comparative plant physiology studies.

The Clade Replacement Theory: a framework to study age-dependent extinction.

There is no scientific consensus about whether and how species' evolutionary age, or the elapsed time since their origination, might affect their probability of going extinct. Different age-dependent extinction (ADE) patterns have been proposed in theoretical and empirical studies, while the existence of a consistent and universal pattern across the tree of life remains debated. If evolutionary age predicts species extinction probability, then the study of ADE should comprise the elapsed time and the ecological process acting on species from their origin to their extinction or to the present for extant species. Additionally, given that closely related species share traits associated with fitness, evolutionary proximity could generate similar ADE patterns. Considering the historical context and extinction selectivity based on evolutionary relatedness, we build on previous theoretical work to formalize the Clade Replacement Theory (CRT) as a framework that considers the ecological and evolutionary aspects of species age and extinction probability to produce testable predictions on ADE patterns. CRT's domain is the diversification dynamics of two or more clades competing for environmental space throughout time, and its propositions or derived hypotheses are as follows: (i) incumbency effects by an early arriving clade that limit the colonization and the diversification of a younger clade leading to a negative ADE scenario (younger species more prone to extinction than older ones) and (ii) an ecological shift triggered by an environmental change that imposes a new selective regime over the environmental space and leads to a positive ADE scenario (extinction probability increasing with age). From these propositions, we developed the prediction that the ADE scenario would be defined by whether an ecological shift happens or not. We discuss how the CRT could be tested with empirical data and provide examples where it could be applied. We hope this article will provide a common ground to unify results from different fields and foster new empirical tests of the mechanisms derived here while providing insights into CRT theoretical structuration.

Slow and steady wins the race: Diversification rate is independent from body size and lifestyle in Malagasy skinks (Squamata: Scincidae: Scincinae).

Most of the unique and diverse vertebrate fauna that inhabits Madagascar derives from in situ diversification from colonisers that reached this continental island through overseas dispersal. The endemic Malagasy Scincinae lizards are amongst the most species-rich squamate groups on the island. They colonised all bioclimatic zones and display many ecomorphological adaptations to a fossorial (burrowing) lifestyle. Here we propose a new phylogenetic hypothesis for their diversification based on the largest taxon sampling so far compiled for this group. We estimated divergence times and investigated several aspects of their diversification (diversification rate, body size and fossorial lifestyle evolution, and biogeography). We found that diversification rate was constant throughout most of the evolutionary history of the group, but decreased over the last 6-4 million years and independently from body size and fossorial lifestyle evolution. Fossoriality has evolved from fully quadrupedal ancestors at least five times independently, which demonstrates that even complex morphological syndromes - in this case involving traits such as limb regression, body elongation, modification of cephalic scalation, depigmentation, and eyes and ear-opening regression - can evolve repeatedly and independently given enough time and eco-evolutionary advantages. Initial diversification of the group likely occurred in forests, and the divergence of sand-swimmer genera around 20 Ma appears linked to a period of aridification. Our results show that the large phenotypic variability of Malagasy Scincinae has not influenced diversification rate and that their rich species diversity results from a constant accumulation of lineages through time. By compiling large geographic and trait-related datasets together with the computation of a new time tree for the group, our study contributes important insights on the diversification of Malagasy vertebrates.

The rise of angiosperms pushed conifers to decline during global cooling.

Competition among species and entire clades can impact species diversification and extinction, which can shape macroevolutionary patterns. The fossil record shows successive biotic turnovers such that a dominant group is replaced by another. One striking example involves the decline of gymnosperms and the rapid diversification and ecological dominance of angiosperms in the Cretaceous. It is generally believed that angiosperms outcompeted gymnosperms, but the macroevolutionary processes and alternative drivers explaining this pattern remain elusive. Using extant time trees and vetted fossil occurrences for conifers, we tested the hypotheses that clade competition or climate change led to the decline of conifers at the expense of angiosperms. Here, we find that both fossil and molecular data show high congruence in revealing 1) low diversification rates, punctuated by speciation pulses, during warming events throughout the Phanerozoic and 2) that conifer extinction increased significantly in the Mid-Cretaceous (100 to 110 Ma) and remained high ever since. Their extinction rates are best explained by the rise of angiosperms, rejecting alternative models based on either climate change or time alone. Our results support the hypothesis of an active clade replacement, implying that direct competition with angiosperms increased the extinction of conifers by pushing their remaining species diversity and dominance out of the warm tropics. This study illustrates how entire branches on the Tree of Life may actively compete for ecological dominance under changing climates.

Disproportionate extinction of South American mammals drove the asymmetry of the Great American Biotic Interchange.

The interchange between the previously disconnected faunas of North and South America was a massive experiment in biological invasion. A major gap in our understanding of this invasion is why there was a drastic increase in the proportion of mammals of North American origin found in South America. Four nonmutually exclusive mechanisms may explain this asymmetry: 1) Higher dispersal rate of North American mammals toward the south, 2) higher origination of North American immigrants in South America, 3) higher extinction of mammals with South American origin, and 4) similar dispersal rate but a larger pool of native taxa in North versus South America. We test among these mechanisms by analyzing ∼20,000 fossil occurrences with Bayesian methods to infer dispersal and diversification rates and taxonomic selectivity of immigrants. We find no differences in the dispersal and origination rates of immigrants. In contrast, native South American mammals show higher extinction. We also find that two clades with North American origin (Carnivora and Artiodactyla) had significantly more immigrants in South America than other clades. Altogether, the asymmetry of the interchange was not due to higher origination of immigrants in South America as previously suggested, but resulted from higher extinction of native taxa in southern South America. These results from one of the greatest biological invasions highlight how biogeographic processes and biotic interactions can shape continental diversity.

Climate warming can reduce biocontrol efficacy and promote plant invasion due to both genetic and transient metabolomic changes.

Climate change may affect plant-herbivore interactions and their associated ecosystem functions. In an experimental evolution approach, we subjected replicated populations of the invasive Ambrosia artemisiifolia to a combination of simulated warming and herbivory by a potential biocontrol beetle. We tracked genomic and metabolomic changes across generations in field populations and assessed plant offspring phenotypes in a common environment. Using an integrated Bayesian model, we show that increased offspring biomass in response to warming arose through changes in the genetic composition of populations. In contrast, increased resistance to herbivory arose through a shift in plant metabolomic profiles without genetic changes, most likely by transgenerational induction of defences. Importantly, while increased resistance was costly at ambient temperatures, warming removed this constraint and favoured both vigorous and better defended plants under biocontrol. Climate warming may thus decrease biocontrol efficiency and promote Ambrosia invasion, with potentially serious economic and health consequences.

Drivers of diversification in freshwater gastropods vary over deep time.

Unravelling the drivers of species diversification through geological time is of crucial importance for our understanding of long-term evolutionary processes. Numerous studies have proposed different sets of biotic and abiotic controls of speciation and extinction rates, but typically they were inferred for a single, long geological time frame. However, whether the impact of biotic and abiotic controls on diversification changes over time is poorly understood. Here, we use a large fossil dataset, a multivariate birth-death model and a comprehensive set of biotic and abiotic predictors, including a new index to quantify tectonic complexity, to estimate the drivers of diversification for European freshwater gastropods over the past 100 Myr. The effects of these factors on origination and extinction are estimated across the entire time frame as well as within sequential time windows of 20 Myr each. Our results find support for temporal heterogeneity in the factors associated with changes in diversification rates. While the factors impacting speciation and extinction rates vary considerably over time, diversity-dependence and topography are consistently important. Our study highlights that a high level of heterogeneity in diversification rates is best captured by incorporating time-varying effects of biotic and abiotic factors.

Fossil-Informed Models Reveal a Boreotropical Origin and Divergent Evolutionary Trajectories in the Walnut Family (Juglandaceae).

Temperate woody plants in the Northern Hemisphere have long been known to exhibit high species richness in East Asia and North America and significantly lower diversity in Europe, but the causes of this pattern remain debated. Here, we quantify the roles of dispersal, niche evolution, and extinction in shaping the geographic diversity of the temperate woody plant family Juglandaceae (walnuts and their relatives). Integrating evidence from molecular, morphological, fossil, and (paleo)environmental data, we find strong support for a Boreotropical origin of the family with contrasting evolutionary trajectories between the temperate subfamily Juglandoideae and the tropical subfamily Engelhardioideae. Juglandoideae rapidly evolved frost tolerance when the global climate shifted to ice-house conditions from the Oligocene, with diversification at high latitudes especially in Europe and Asia during the Miocene. Subsequent range contraction at high latitudes and high levels of extinction in Europe driven by global cooling led to the current regional disparity in species diversity. Engelhardioideae showed temperature conservatism while adapting to increased humidity, tracking tropical climates to low latitudes since the middle Eocene with comparatively little diversification, perhaps due to high competition in the tropical zone. The biogeographic history of Juglandaceae shows that the North Atlantic land bridge and Europe played more critical roles than previously thought in linking the floras of East Asia and North America, and showcases the complex interplay among climate change, niche evolution, dispersal, and extinction that shaped the modern disjunct pattern of species richness in temperate woody plants. [Boreotropical origin; climatic niche evolution; disjunct distribution; dispersal; diversity anomaly; extinction; Juglandaceae.].

On the Effect of Asymmetrical Trait Inheritance on Models of Trait Evolution.

Current phylogenetic comparative methods modeling quantitative trait evolution generally assume that, during speciation, phenotypes are inherited identically between the two daughter species. This, however, neglects the fact that species consist of a set of individuals, each bearing its own trait value. Indeed, because descendent populations after speciation are samples of a parent population, we can expect their mean phenotypes to randomly differ from one another potentially generating a "jump" of mean phenotypes due to asymmetrical trait inheritance at cladogenesis. Here, we aim to clarify the effect of asymmetrical trait inheritance at speciation on macroevolutionary analyses, focusing on model testing and parameter estimation using some of the most common models of quantitative trait evolution. We developed an individual-based simulation framework in which the evolution of phenotypes is determined by trait changes at the individual level accumulating across generations, and cladogenesis occurs then by separation of subsets of the individuals into new lineages. Through simulations, we assess the magnitude of phenotypic jumps at cladogenesis under different modes of trait inheritance at speciation. We show that even small jumps can strongly alter both the results of model selection and parameter estimations, potentially affecting the biological interpretation of the estimated mode of evolution of a trait. Our results call for caution when interpreting analyses of trait evolution, while highlighting the importance of testing a wide range of alternative models. In the light of our findings, we propose that future methodological advances in comparative methods should more explicitly model the intraspecific variability around species mean phenotypes and how it is inherited at speciation.

The origin of modern patterns of continental diversity in Mauritiinae palms: the Neotropical museum and the Afrotropical graveyard.

While the latitudinal diversity gradient has received much attention, biodiversity and species richness also vary between continents across similar latitudes. Fossil information can be used to understand the evolutionary mechanisms that generated such variation between continents of similar latitudes. We integrated fossil data into a phylogenetic analysis of the Mauritiinae palms, whose extant diversity is restricted to the Neotropics, but extended across Africa and India during most of the Cenozoic. Mauritiinae diverged from its sister lineage Raphiinae ca 106 Ma. Using ancestral state estimation and a lineage through time analysis, we found that diversity arose globally during the late Cretaceous and Palaeocene across South America, Africa and India. The Palaeocene-Eocene transition (ca 56 Ma) marked the end of global Mauritiinae expansion, and the beginning of their decline in both Africa and India. Mauritiinae disappeared from the Indian subcontinent and Africa at the end of the Eocene and the Miocene, respectively. By contrast, Neotropical diversity steadily increased over the last 80 Myr. Taken together, our results suggest that the Neotropics functioned as a continental-scale refuge for Mauritiinae palms, where lineages survived and diversified while global climatic changes that drastically reduced rainforests led to their demise on other continents.

Simultaneous Bayesian inference of phylogeny and molecular coevolution.

Patterns of molecular coevolution can reveal structural and functional constraints within or among organic molecules. These patterns are better understood when considering the underlying evolutionary process, which enables us to disentangle the signal of the dependent evolution of sites (coevolution) from the effects of shared ancestry of genes. Conversely, disregarding the dependent evolution of sites when studying the history of genes negatively impacts the accuracy of the inferred phylogenetic trees. Although molecular coevolution and phylogenetic history are interdependent, analyses of the two processes are conducted separately, a choice dictated by computational convenience, but at the expense of accuracy. We present a Bayesian method and associated software to infer how many and which sites of an alignment evolve according to an independent or a pairwise dependent evolutionary process, and to simultaneously estimate the phylogenetic relationships among sequences. We validate our method on synthetic datasets and challenge our predictions of coevolution on the 16S rRNA molecule by comparing them with its known molecular structure. Finally, we assess the accuracy of phylogenetic trees inferred under the assumption of independence among sites using synthetic datasets, the 16S rRNA molecule and 10 additional alignments of protein-coding genes of eukaryotes. Our results demonstrate that inferring phylogenetic trees while accounting for dependent site evolution significantly impacts the estimates of the phylogeny and the evolutionary process.

Automated conservation assessment of the orchid family with deep learning.

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments are essential for prioritizing conservation needs but are resource intensive and therefore available only for a fraction of global species richness. Automated conservation assessments based on digitally available geographic occurrence records can be a rapid alternative, but it is unclear how reliable these assessments are. We conducted automated conservation assessments for 13,910 species (47.3% of the known species in the family) of the diverse and globally distributed orchid family (Orchidaceae), for which most species (13,049) were previously unassessed by IUCN. We used a novel method based on a deep neural network (IUC-NN). We identified 4,342 orchid species (31.2% of the evaluated species) as possibly threatened with extinction (equivalent to IUCN categories critically endangered [CR], endangered [EN], or vulnerable [VU]) and Madagascar, East Africa, Southeast Asia, and several oceanic islands as priority areas for orchid conservation. Orchidaceae provided a model with which to test the sensitivity of automated assessment methods to problems with data availability, data quality, and geographic sampling bias. The IUC-NN identified possibly threatened species with an accuracy of 84.3%, with significantly lower geographic evaluation bias relative to the IUCN Red List and was robust even when data availability was low and there were geographic errors in the input data. Overall, our results demonstrate that automated assessments have an important role to play in identifying species at the greatest risk of extinction.

Evaluación Automatizada de la Conservación de la Familia Orchidaceae mediante Aprendizaje Profundo Resumen Los análisis de la Lista Roja de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) son esenciales para la priorización de las necesidades de conservación, pero requieren de muchos recursos y por lo tanto están disponibles sólo para una fracción de la riqueza mundial de especies. Las evaluaciones automatizadas de la conservación basadas en los registros disponibles de presencia geográfica pueden ser una alternativa rápida pero no está claro cuán confiables son estas evaluaciones. Realizamos evaluaciones automatizadas de la conservación para 13,910 especies (47.3% de las especies conocidas de la familia) de la diversa y mundialmente distribuida familia de las orquídeas (Orchidaceae), en la cual la mayoría de las especies (13,049) no tenían una valoración previa por parte de la UICN. Usamos un método novedoso basado en una red neural profunda (IUC-NN). Identificamos 4,342 especies de orquídeas (31.2% de las especies evaluadas) como posiblemente amenazadas por la extinción (equivalente a las categorías de la UICN en peligro crítico [CR], en peligro [EN] o vulnerable [VU]) y a Madagascar, África Occidental, el sudeste de Asia y varias islas oceánicas como áreas prioritarias para la conservación de orquídeas. La familia Orchidaceae proporcionó un modelo con el cual probar la sensibilidad de los métodos de evaluación automatizada ante problemas con la disponibilidad de datos, la calidad de los datos y los sesgos de muestreo geográfico. La IUC-NN identificó posibles especies amenazadas con una certeza de 84.3% con un sesgo de evaluación geográfica significativamente más bajo en relación con la Lista Roja de la UICN y mostró solidez incluso cuando la disponibilidad de datos fue baja y hubo errores geográficos en los datos de entrada. En general, nuestros resultados demostraron que las evaluaciones automatizadas tienen un papel importante que desempeñar en la identificación de especies con mayor riesgo de extinción.

Amazonia is the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity.

The American tropics (the Neotropics) are the most species-rich realm on Earth, and for centuries, scientists have attempted to understand the origins and evolution of their biodiversity. It is now clear that different regions and taxonomic groups have responded differently to geological and climatic changes. However, we still lack a basic understanding of how Neotropical biodiversity was assembled over evolutionary timescales. Here we infer the timing and origin of the living biota in all major Neotropical regions by performing a cross-taxonomic biogeographic analysis based on 4,450 species from six major clades across the tree of life (angiosperms, birds, ferns, frogs, mammals, and squamates), and integrate >1.3 million species occurrences with large-scale phylogenies. We report an unprecedented level of biotic interchange among all Neotropical regions, totaling 4,525 dispersal events. About half of these events involved transitions between major environmental types, with a predominant directionality from forested to open biomes. For all taxonomic groups surveyed here, Amazonia is the primary source of Neotropical diversity, providing >2,800 lineages to other regions. Most of these dispersal events were to Mesoamerica (∼1,500 lineages), followed by dispersals into open regions of northern South America and the Cerrado and Chaco biomes. Biotic interchange has taken place for >60 million years and generally increased toward the present. The total amount of time lineages spend in a region appears to be the strongest predictor of migration events. These results demonstrate the complex origin of tropical ecosystems and the key role of biotic interchange for the assembly of regional biotas.

Brain expansion in early hominins predicts carnivore extinctions in East Africa.

While the anthropogenic impact on ecosystems today is evident, it remains unclear if the detrimental effect of hominins on co-occurring biodiversity is a recent phenomenon or has also been the pattern for earlier hominin species. We test this using the East African carnivore fossil record. We analyse the diversity of carnivores over the last four million years and investigate whether any decline is related to an increase in hominin cognitive capacity, vegetation changes or climatic changes. We find that extinction rates in large carnivores correlate with increased hominin brain size and with vegetation changes, but not with precipitation or temperature changes. While temporal analyses cannot distinguish between the effects of vegetation changes and hominins, we show through spatial analyses of contemporary carnivores in Africa that only hominin causation is plausible. Our results suggest that substantial anthropogenic influence on biodiversity started millions of years earlier than currently assumed.