Gavi Support for Typhoid Conjugate Vaccines: Moving From Global Investments to Country Introduction.

Nine years elapsed between Gavi's investment decision to support typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) in 2008 and Gavi support becoming available for countries to introduce TCV. The protracted path toward Gavi support for TCV highlights the challenges of vaccine development for lower-income countries and the importance of Gavi engagement as early as possible in product development processes to support the alignment of manufacturing, global policy, and program implementation. Early engagement would provide inputs to inform strategic vaccine investment decisions that transition more efficiently toward country implementation. Several countries have been approved for Gavi support to introduce TCV in 2019-2020. The paucity of generalizable typhoid epidemiological data in early introducing countries has reinforced the need for continued evidence generation regarding typhoid epidemiology and TCV impact. This has led to the development of guidance and tools to support country decision making for TCV introduction based on enhanced understanding of local typhoid burden and risk.

Limitations of Rapid Diagnostic Testing in Patients with Suspected Malaria: A Diagnostic Accuracy Evaluation from Swaziland, a Low-Endemicity Country Aiming for Malaria Elimination.

Background: The performance of Plasmodium falciparum-specific histidine-rich protein 2-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) to evaluate suspected malaria in low-endemicity settings has not been well characterized. Methods: Using dried blood spot samples from patients with suspected malaria at 37 health facilities from 2012 to 2014 in the low-endemicity country of Swaziland, we investigated the diagnostic accuracy of histidine-rich protein 2-based RDTs using qualitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (nested PCR targeting the cytochrome b gene) and quantitative PCR as reference standards. To explore reasons for false-negative and/or false-positive results, we used pfhrp2/3-specific PCR and logistic regression analyses of potentially associated epidemiological factors. Results: From 1353 patients, 93.0% of RDT-positive (n = 185) and 31.2% of RDT-negative samples (n = 340) were available and selected for testing. Compared with nested PCR, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of RDTs were 51.7%, 94.1%, 67.3%, and 89.1%, respectively. After exclusion of samples with parasite densities <100/µL, which accounted for 75.7% of false-negative results and 33.3% of PCR-detectable infections, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 78.8%, 93.7%, 62.3%, and 97.1%. Deletions of pfhrp2 were not detected. False-positivity was more likely during the second year and was not associated with demographics, recent malaria, health facility testing characteristics, or potential DNA degradation. Conclusions: In the low-transmission setting of Swaziland, we demonstrated low sensitivity of RDT for malaria diagnosis, owing to an unexpectedly high proportion of low-density infection among symptomatic subjects. The PPV was also low, requiring further investigation. A more accurate point-of-care diagnostic may be needed to support malaria elimination efforts.

Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination.

BACKGROUND: Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. METHODS: Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland's National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). RESULTS: The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

Travel patterns and demographic characteristics of malaria cases in Swaziland, 2010-2014.

BACKGROUND: As Swaziland progresses towards national malaria elimination, the importation of parasites into receptive areas becomes increasingly important. Imported infections have the potential to instigate local transmission and sustain local parasite reservoirs. METHODS: Travel histories from Swaziland's routine surveillance data from January 2010 to June 2014 were extracted and analysed. The travel patterns and demographics of rapid diagnostic test (RDT)-confirmed positive cases identified through passive and reactive case detection (RACD) were analysed and compared to those found to be negative through RACD. RESULTS: Of 1517 confirmed cases identified through passive surveillance, 67% reported travel history. A large proportion of positive cases reported domestic or international travel history (65%) compared to negative cases (10%). The primary risk factor for malaria infection in Swaziland was shown to be travel, more specifically international travel to Mozambique by 25- to 44-year old males, who spent on average 28 nights away. Maputo City, Inhambane and Gaza districts were the most likely travel destinations in Mozambique, and 96% of RDT-positive international travellers were either Swazi (52%) or Mozambican (44%) nationals, with Swazis being more likely to test negative. All international travellers were unlikely to have a bed net at home or use protection of any type while travelling. Additionally, paths of transmission, important border crossings and means of transport were identified. CONCLUSION: Results from this analysis can be used to direct national and well as cross-border targeting of interventions, over space, time and by sub-population. The results also highlight that collaboration between neighbouring countries is needed to tackle the importation of malaria at the regional level.

Development of a pharmacovigilance safety monitoring tool for the rollout of single low-dose primaquine and artemether-lumefantrine to treat Plasmodium falciparum infections in Swaziland: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Countries remain reluctant to adopt the 2012 World Health Organization recommendation for single low-dose (0.25 mg/kg) primaquine (SLD PQ) for Plasmodium falciparum transmission-blocking due to concerns over drug-related haemolysis risk, especially among glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase-deficient (G6PDd) people, without evidence demonstrating that it can be safely deployed in their settings. Pharmacovigilance methods provide a systematic way of collecting safety data and supporting the rollout of SLD PQ. METHODS: The Primaquine Roll Out Monitoring Pharmacovigilance Tool (PROMPT), comprising: (1) a standardized form to support the surveillance of possible adverse events following SLD PQ treatment; (2) a patient information card to enhance awareness of known adverse drug reactions of SLD PQ use; and (3) a database compiling recorded information, was developed and piloted. Data on patient characteristics, malaria diagnosis and treatment are collected. Blood samples are taken to measure haemoglobin (Hb) and test for G6PD deficiency. Active follow-up includes a repeat Hb measurement and adverse event monitoring on or near day 7. A 13-month prospective pilot study in two hospital facilities in Swaziland alongside the introduction of SLD PQ generated preliminary evidence on the feasibility and acceptability of PROMPT. RESULTS: PROMPT was well received by nurses as a simple, pragmatic approach to active surveillance of SLD PQ safety data. Of the 102 patients enrolled and administered SLD PQ, none were G6PDd. 93 (91.2 %) returned on or near day 7 for follow-up. Four (4.6 %) patients had falls in Hb ≥25 % from baseline, none of whom presented with signs or symptoms of anaemia. No patient's Hb fell below 7 g/dL and none required a blood transfusion. Of the 11 (11 %) patients who reported an adverse event over the study period, three were considered serious and included two deaths and one hospitalization; none were causally related to SLD PQ. Four non-serious adverse events were considered definitely, probably, or possibly related to SLD PQ. CONCLUSION: Improved pharmacovigilance to monitor and promote the safety of the WHO recommendation is needed. The successful application of PROMPT demonstrates its potential as an important tool to rapidly generate locally acquired safety data and support pharmacovigilance in resource-limited settings.

A review of potential use cases for measles-rubella, measles-mumps-rubella, and typhoid-conjugate vaccines presented on microarray patches.

As an innovative vaccine delivery technology, vaccine microarray patches could have a meaningful impact on routine immunization coverage in low- and middle-income countries, and vaccine deployment during epidemics and pandemics. This review of the potential use cases for a subset of vaccine microarray patches in various stages of clinical development, including measles-rubella, measles-mumps-rubella, and typhoid conjugate, highlights the breadth of their applicability to support immunization service delivery and their potential scope of utilization within national immunization programs. Definition and assessment of the use cases for this novel vaccine presentation provide important insights for vaccine developers and policymakers into the strengths of the public health and commercial value propositions, and the preparatory requirements for public health systems for the future rollout of vaccine microarray patches. An in-depth understanding of use cases for vaccine microarray patches serves as a foundational input to overcoming the remaining technical, regulatory, and financial challenges. Additional efforts will help to realize the potential of vaccine microarray patches as part of the global effort to improve the coverage and equity of national immunization programs.

An Application of an Initial Full Value of Vaccine Assessment Methodology to Measles-Rubella MAPs for Use in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Measles and rubella micro-array patches (MR-MAPs) are a promising innovation to address limitations of the current needle and syringe (N&S) presentation due to their single-dose presentation, ease of use, and improved thermostability. To direct and accelerate further research and interventions, an initial full value vaccine assessment (iFVVA) was initiated prior to MR-MAPs entering phase I trials to quantify their value and identify key data gaps and challenges. The iFVVA utilized a mixed-methods approach with rapid assessment of literature, stakeholder interviews and surveys, and quantitative data analyses to (i) assess global need for improved MR vaccines and how MR-MAPs could address MR problem statements; (ii) estimate costs and benefits of MR-MAPs; (iii) identify the best pathway from development to delivery; and (iv) identify outstanding areas of need where stakeholder intervention can be helpful. These analyses found that if MR-MAPs are broadly deployed, they can potentially reach an additional 80 million children compared to the N&S presentation between 2030-2040. MR-MAPs can avert up to 37 million measles cases, 400,000 measles deaths, and 26 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). MR-MAPs with the most optimal product characteristics of low price, controlled temperature chain (CTC) properties, and small cold chain volumes were shown to be cost saving for routine immunization (RI) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared to N&S. Uncertainties about price and future vaccine coverage impact the potential cost-effectiveness of introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs, indicating that it could be cost-effective in 16-81% of LMICs. Furthermore, this iFVVA highlighted the importance of upfront donor investment in manufacturing set-up and clinical studies and the critical influence of an appropriate price to ensure country and manufacturer financial sustainability. To ensure that MR-MAPs achieve the greatest public health benefit, MAP developers, vaccine manufacturers, donors, financiers, and policy- and decision-makers will need close collaboration and open communications.

The Global Demand and Supply Balance of the Human Papillomavirus Vaccine: Implications for the Global Strategy for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer.

As of November 2023, 140 World Health Organization (WHO) member states had introduced human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in their routine immunization schedules. Despite a continuously increasing demand from countries across all income groups, supply constraints, COVID-19 pandemic disruptions, and other factors have slowed the pace of introduction, particularly in low-resource settings. Using a population-based forecasting methodology and leveraging the WHO's yearly vaccine supply data collection, we updated global demand and supply projections for the HPV vaccine for the period of 2022-2031. The analysis aimed at clarifying the magnitude of the challenges to bringing in equitable access to HPV vaccines, which can hinder the achievement of the Global Strategy for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer. The results of this analysis show that the risk of HPV shortages has significantly decreased, and global supply is now, under normal circumstances, sufficient to meet global demand. In the long term, HPV supply will be more than sufficient to meet the Global Strategy's goal of 90% of girls fully vaccinated with the HPV vaccine by the age of 15 years. Nonetheless, paying attention to the formulation of policies and carefully managing demand and supply will be required to ensure the long-term sustainability of the HPV vaccine program.

Vaccine impact on antimicrobial resistance to inform Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance's 2018 Vaccine Investment Strategy: report from an expert survey.

Background: While the rise of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has been recognised as a major public health problem, the value of vaccines to control AMR is poorly defined. This expert survey was launched with the aim of informing the 2018 Vaccine Investment Strategy through which Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance prioritises future vaccine funding. This exercise focused on both vaccines currently supported by Gavi and under consideration for future funding. Methods: The relative importance of pre-defined criteria as drivers of overall value of vaccines as a tool/ intervention to control AMR was assessed by 18 experts: prevention of mortality and morbidity due to resistant pathogens, antibiotic use prevented, societal impact, ethical importance and sense of urgency. For each vaccine, experts attributed scores reflecting the estimated value for each criterion, and overall value relative to AMR was derived from the value assigned to each criterion and their relative importance for each vaccine. Results: Mortality, morbidity due to targeted resistant pathogens, and antibiotic use prevented were considered the most important determinants of overall value. Pneumococcal, typhoid and malaria vaccines were assigned highest value relative to antimicrobial resistance. Intermediate value was estimated for specific rotavirus, cholera, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza, dengue, measles, meningitis and Haemophilus influenza type b- (Hib-) containing pentavalent vaccines. Lowest value relative to AMR was estimated for Japanese encephalitis, hepatitis A, yellow fever, rabies and human papilloma virus vaccine. Conclusions: In the future, more evidence-based, data-driven, robust methodologies should be developed to guide coordinated, rational decision making on priority actions aimed at strengthening the use of vaccines against AMR.