What and where? Predicting invasion hotspots in the Arctic marine realm.

The risk of aquatic invasions in the Arctic is expected to increase with climate warming, greater shipping activity and resource exploitation in the region. Planktonic and benthic marine aquatic invasive species (AIS) with the greatest potential for invasion and impact in the Canadian Arctic were identified and the 23 riskiest species were modelled to predict their potential spatial distributions at pan-Arctic and global scales. Modelling was conducted under present environmental conditions and two intermediate future (2050 and 2100) global warming scenarios. Invasion hotspots-regions of the Arctic where habitat is predicted to be suitable for a high number of potential AIS-were located in Hudson Bay, Northern Grand Banks/Labrador, Chukchi/Eastern Bering seas and Barents/White seas, suggesting that these regions could be more vulnerable to invasions. Globally, both benthic and planktonic organisms showed a future poleward shift in suitable habitat. At a pan-Arctic scale, all organisms showed suitable habitat gains under future conditions. However, at the global scale, habitat loss was predicted in more tropical regions for some taxa, particularly most planktonic species. Results from the present study can help prioritize management efforts in the face of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Moreover, this particular approach provides information to identify present and future high-risk areas for AIS in response to global warming.

Where else? Assessing zones of alternate ballast water exchange in the Canadian eastern Arctic.

Mid-ocean ballast water exchange (BWE) is recommended for international vessels to minimize the transfer of nonindigenous species (NIS). When this cannot be accomplished due to safety concerns, alternate ballast water exchange zones (ABWEZ) may be used. A coupled-ice-ocean model with meteorological forcing and particle tracking was used to evaluate the relative risks from BWE along primary shipping routes into Canada's eastern Arctic. Relative risk to receiving habitats from BWE was calculated from the product of likelihood of exposure, likelihood of establishment, and habitat sensitivity to potential NIS. Modelling results indicate that existing ABWEZs in and around Lancaster Sound and Hudson Strait are among the areas of highest relative risk for introductions of NIS via ballast water. The deeper offshore regions of Labrador Sea and Baffin Bay should be considered as alternatives. However, further research is recommended to assess the risks of NIS associated with BWE in the Canadian Arctic.