Accuracy of clinical predictions of prognosis at the end-of-life: evidence from routinely collected data in urgent care records.

BACKGROUND: The accuracy of prognostication has important implications for patients, families, and health services since it may be linked to clinical decision-making, patient experience and outcomes and resource allocation. Study aim is to evaluate the accuracy of temporal predictions of survival in patients with cancer, dementia, heart, or respiratory disease. METHODS: Accuracy of clinical prediction was evaluated using retrospective, observational cohort study of 98,187 individuals with a Coordinate My Care record, the Electronic Palliative Care Coordination System serving London, 2010-2020. The survival times of patients were summarised using median and interquartile ranges. Kaplan Meier survival curves were created to describe and compare survival across prognostic categories and disease trajectories. The extent of agreement between estimated and actual prognosis was quantified using linear weighted Kappa statistic. RESULTS: Overall, 3% were predicted to live "days"; 13% "weeks"; 28% "months"; and 56% "year/years". The agreement between estimated and actual prognosis using linear weighted Kappa statistic was highest for patients with dementia/frailty (0.75) and cancer (0.73). Clinicians' estimates were able to discriminate (log-rank p < 0.001) between groups of patients with differing survival prospects. Across all disease groups, the accuracy of survival estimates was high for patients who were likely to live for fewer than 14 days (74% accuracy) or for more than one year (83% accuracy), but less accurate at predicting survival of "weeks" or "months" (32% accuracy). CONCLUSION: Clinicians are good at identifying individuals who will die imminently and those who will live for much longer. The accuracy of prognostication for these time frames differs across major disease categories, but remains acceptable even in non-cancer patients, including patients with dementia. Advance Care Planning and timely access to palliative care based on individual patient needs may be beneficial for those where there is significant prognostic uncertainty; those who are neither imminently dying nor expected to live for "years".

Awareness in severe Alzheimer's disease: a systematic review.

Objective: There is limited understanding about how people in the severe stages of Alzheimer's disease (AD) experience and demonstrate awareness. We synthesised all available evidence with the aim of understanding how awareness is preserved or impaired in severe AD and what evidence there is for different levels of awareness according to the levels of awareness framework.Method: A systematic search of the following databases: Embase, PsycINFO, MEDLINE and Web of Science was carried out. A narrative synthesis and analysis was conducted of all included studies. All studies were assessed for quality using the AXIS and CASP tools.Results: Our findings suggest that lower level sensory awareness is relatively maintained in severe AD. Findings for higher level awareness are variable and this may be related to the diversity of methods that have been used to explore awareness in these circumstances.Conclusion: Awareness is complex, heterogeneous and varies significantly between individuals. Environmental and contextual factors have a significant impact on whether awareness is observed in people with severe AD. Adaptation of the environment has the potential to facilitate the expression of awareness while education of caregivers may increase understanding of people with severe AD and potentially improve the quality of care that is received.

Vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) for osteoporosis screening in US postmenopausal women: is it cost-effective?

Vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) is cost-effective when it was incorporated in the routine screening for osteoporosis in community-dwelling women aged ≥ 65 years, which support guidelines, such as the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) for the diagnostic use of VFA as an important addition to fracture risk assessment. INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of VFA as a screening tool to reduce future fracture risk in US community-dwelling women aged ≥ 65 years. METHODS: An individual-level state-transition cost-effectiveness model from a healthcare perspective was constructed using derived data from published literature. The time horizon was lifetime. Five screening strategies were compared, including no screening at all, central dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) only, VFA only, central DXA followed by VFA if the femoral neck T-score (FN-T) ≤ - 1.5, or if the FN-T ≤ - 1.0. Various initiation ages and rescreening intervals were evaluated. Oral bisphosphonate treatment for 5-year periods was assumed. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (2017 US dollars per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained) were used as the outcome measure. RESULTS: The incorporation of VFA slightly increased life expectancy by 0.1 years and reduced the number of subsequent osteoporotic fractures by 3.7% and 7.7% compared with using DXA alone and no screening, respectively, leading to approximately 30 billion dollars saved. Regardless of initiation ages and rescreening intervals, central DXA followed by VFA if the FN-T ≤ - 1.0 was most cost-effective ($40,792 per QALY when the screening is initiated at age 65 years and with rescreening every 5 years). Results were robust to change in VF incidence and medication costs. CONCLUSION: In women aged ≥ 65 years, VFA is cost-effective when it was incorporated in routine screening for osteoporosis. Our findings support the National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF) guidelines for the diagnostic use of VFA as an important addition to fracture risk assessment.

Predicting COPD 1-year mortality using prognostic predictors routinely measured in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality. Patients with advanced disease often have a poor quality of life, such that guidelines recommend providing palliative care in their last year of life. Uptake and use of palliative care in advanced COPD is low; difficulty in predicting 1-year mortality is thought to be a major contributing factor. METHODS: We identified two primary care COPD cohorts using UK electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). The first cohort was randomised equally into training and test sets. An external dataset was drawn from a second cohort. A risk model to predict mortality within 12 months was derived from the training set using backwards elimination Cox regression. The model was given the acronym BARC based on putative prognostic factors including body mass index and blood results (B), age (A), respiratory variables (airflow obstruction, exacerbations, smoking) (R) and comorbidities (C). The BARC index predictive performance was validated in the test set and external dataset by assessing calibration and discrimination. The observed and expected probabilities of death were assessed for increasing quartiles of mortality risk (very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk). The BARC index was compared to the established index scores body mass index, obstructive, dyspnoea and exacerbations (BODEx), dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking and exacerbations (DOSE) and age, dyspnoea and obstruction (ADO). RESULTS: Fifty-four thousand nine hundred ninety patients were eligible from the first cohort and 4931 from the second cohort. Eighteen variables were included in the BARC, including age, airflow obstruction, body mass index, smoking, exacerbations and comorbidities. The risk model had acceptable predictive performance (test set: C-index = 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.81, D-statistic = 1.87, 95% CI 1.77-1.96, calibration slope = 0.95, 95% CI 0.9-0.99; external dataset: C-index = 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.7, D-statistic = 0.98, 95% CI 0.8-1.2, calibration slope = 0.54, 95% CI 0.45-0.64) and acceptable accuracy predicting the probability of death (probability of death in 1 year, n high-risk group, test set: expected = 0.31, observed = 0.30; external dataset: expected = 0.22, observed = 0.27). The BARC compared favourably to existing index scores that can also be applied without specialist respiratory variables (area under the curve: BARC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.76-0.79; BODEx = 0.48, 95% CI 0.45-0.51; DOSE = 0.60, 95% CI 0.57-0.61; ADO = 0.68, 95% CI 0.66-0.69, external dataset: BARC = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72; BODEx = 0.41, 95% CI 0.38-0.45; DOSE = 0.52, 95% CI 0.49-0.55; ADO = 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60). CONCLUSION: The BARC index performed better than existing tools in predicting 1-year mortality. Critically, the risk score only requires routinely collected non-specialist information which, therefore, could help identify patients seen in primary care that may benefit from palliative care.

STRIDER NZAus: a multicentre randomised controlled trial of sildenafil therapy in early-onset fetal growth restriction.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of maternal sildenafil therapy on fetal growth in pregnancies with early-onset fetal growth restriction. DESIGN: A randomised placebo-controlled trial. SETTING: Thirteen maternal-fetal medicine units across New Zealand and Australia. POPULATION: Women with singleton pregnancies affected by fetal growth restriction at 22+0 to 29+6 weeks. METHODS: Women were randomised to oral administration of 25 mg sildenafil citrate or visually matching placebo three times daily until 32+0 weeks, birth or fetal death (whichever occurred first). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the proportion of pregnancies with an increase in fetal growth velocity. Secondary outcomes included live birth, survival to hospital discharge free of major neonatal morbidity and pre-eclampsia. RESULTS: Sildenafil did not affect the proportion of pregnancies with an increase in fetal growth velocity; 32/61 (52.5%) sildenafil-treated, 39/57 (68.4%) placebo-treated [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.49, 95% CI 0.23-1.05] and had no effect on abdominal circumference Z-scores (P = 0.61). Sildenafil use was associated with a lower mean uterine artery pulsatility index after 48 hours of treatment (1.56 versus 1.81; P = 0.02). The live birth rate was 56/63 (88.9%) for sildenafil-treated and 47/59 (79.7%) for placebo-treated (adjusted OR 2.50, 95% CI 0.80-7.79); survival to hospital discharge free of major neonatal morbidity was 42/63 (66.7%) for sildenafil-treated and 33/59 (55.9%) for placebo-treated (adjusted OR 1.93, 95% CI 0.84-4.45); and new-onset pre-eclampsia was 9/51 (17.7%) for sildenafil-treated and 14/55 (25.5%) for placebo-treated (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.26-1.75). CONCLUSIONS: Maternal sildenafil use had no effect on fetal growth velocity. Prospectively planned meta-analyses will determine whether sildenafil exerts other effects on maternal and fetal/neonatal wellbeing. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Maternal sildenafil use has no beneficial effect on growth in early-onset FGR, but also no evidence of harm.

Expressive writing as a therapeutic intervention for people with advanced disease: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Expressive writing involves writing about stressful or traumatic experiences. Despite trials in people with advanced disease, no systematic review to date has critiqued the evidence on expressive writing in this population. To synthesise the evidence of the effects of expressive writing on pain, sleep, depression and anxiety in people with advanced disease. METHODS: A systematic review according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. CINAHL, CENTRAL, PsycINFO and PubMed were searched from January 1986 to March 2018. Other sources included clinical data registers and conference proceedings. Studies were included if they were randomised controlled trials that assessed the impact of an intervention involving expressive writing for adults with advanced disease and/or studies involving linguistic analysis on the expressive writing output. Methodological quality was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool and the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation tool was used to assess the level of evidence for the outcomes of interest. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered on PROSPERO (CRD42017058193). RESULTS: Six eligible studies with a total of 288 participants were identified, including four randomised controlled trials. All of the trials were in cancer and recruited predominantly women. None of the interventions were tailored to the population. Studies had methodological shortcomings and evidence was generally of low quality. Combined analysis of the four trials, involving 214 participants in total, showed no clear difference in the effect of expressive writing on sleep, anxiety or depression compared to an active control. Pain was not evaluated in the trials. In contrast, analysis of the four studies that included linguistic analysis alluded to linguistic mechanisms for potential effects. CONCLUSION: Although the trial results suggest there is no benefit in expressive writing for people with advanced disease, the current evidence is limited. There is a need for more rigorous trials. It would be of benefit first to undertake exploratory research in trial design including how best to measure impact and in tailoring of the intervention to address the specific needs of people with advanced disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The protocol of this systematic review has been registered on PROSPERO, which can be accessed here (registration number: CRD42017058193 ).

Enoxaparin for the prevention of preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction in women with a prior history - an open-label randomised trial (the EPPI trial): study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Preeclampsia and intrauterine fetal growth restriction (IUGR) are two of the most common causes of maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. Current methods of predicting those at most risk of these conditions remain relatively poor, and in clinical practice past obstetric history remains the most commonly used tool. Aspirin and, in women at risk of preeclampsia only, calcium have been demonstrated to have a modest effect on risk reduction. Several observational studies and randomised trials suggest that low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) therapy may confer some benefit. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a multicentre open label randomised controlled trial to determine the effect of the LMWH, enoxaparin, on the prevention of recurrence of preeclampsia and/or IUGR in women at high risk due to their past obstetric history in addition to standard high risk care for all participants. INCLUSION CRITERIA: A singleton pregnancy >6+0 and <16+0 weeks gestation with most recent prior pregnancy with duration >12 weeks having; (1) preeclampsia delivered <36+0 weeks, (2) Small for gestational age (SGA) infant <10th customised birthweight centile delivered <36+0 weeks or, (3) SGA infant ≤3rd customised birthweight centile delivered at any gestation. Randomisation is stratified for maternal thrombophilia status and women are randomly assigned to 'standard high risk care' or 'standard high risk care' plus enoxaparin 40 mg from recruitment until 36+0 weeks or delivery, whichever occurs sooner. Standard high risk care includes the use of aspirin 100 mg daily and calcium 1000-1500 mg daily (unless only had previous SGA with no preeclampsia). The primary outcome is preeclampsia and/or SGA <5th customised birthweight centile. Analysis will be by intention to treat. DISCUSSION: The EPPI trial has more focussed and clinically relevant inclusion criteria than other randomised trials with a more restricted composite primary outcome. The inclusion of standard use of aspirin (and calcium) for all participants will help to ensure that any differences observed in outcome are likely to be related to enoxaparin use. These data will make a significant contribution to future meta-analyses and systematic reviews on the use of LMWH for the prevention of placental mediated conditions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12609000699268 Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry. Date registered 13/Aug/2009 (prospective registration).

Policies to sustain the nursing workforce: an international perspective.

AIM: Examine metrics and policies regarding nurse workforce across four countries. BACKGROUND: International comparisons inform health policy makers. METHODS: Data from the OECD were used to compare expenditure, workforce and health in: Australia, Portugal, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US). Workforce policy context was explored. RESULTS: Public spending varied from less than 50% of gross domestic product in the US to over 80% in the UK. Australia had the highest life expectancy. Portugal has fewer nurses and more physicians. The Australian national health workforce planning agency has increased the scope for co-ordinated policy intervention. Portugal risks losing nurses through migration. In the UK, the economic crisis resulted in frozen pay, reduced employment, and reduced student nurses. In the US, there has been limited scope to develop a significant national nursing workforce policy approach, with a continuation of State based regulation adding to the complexity of the policy landscape. The US is the most developed in the use of nurses in advanced practice roles. Ageing of the workforce is likely to drive projected shortages in all countries. LIMITATIONS: There are differences as well as variation in the overall impact of the global financial crisis in these countries. CONCLUSION: Future supply of nurses in all four countries is vulnerable. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING AND HEALTH POLICY: Work force planning is absent or restricted in three of the countries. Scope for improved productivity through use of advanced nurse roles exists in all countries.

Kidneys at higher risk of discard: expanding the role of dual kidney transplantation.

Half of the recovered expanded criteria donor (ECD) kidneys are discarded in the United States. A new kidney allocation system offers kidneys at higher risk of discard, Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI)>85%, to a wider geographic area to promote broader sharing and expedite utilization. Dual kidney transplantation (DKT) based on the KDPI is a potential option to streamline allocation of kidneys which otherwise would have been discarded. To assess the clinical utility of the KDPI in kidneys at higher risk of discard, we analyzed the OPTN/UNOS Registry that included the deceased donor kidneys recovered between 2002 and 2012. The primary outcomes were allograft survival, patient survival and discard rate based on different KDPI categories (<80%, 80-90% and >90%). Kidneys with KDPI>90% were associated with increased odds of discard (OR=1.99, 95% CI 1.74-2.29) compared to ones with KDPI<80%. DKTs of KDPI>90% were associated with lower overall allograft failure (HR=0.74, 95% CI 0.62-0.89) and better patient survival (HR=0.79, 95% CI 0.64-0.98) compared to single ECD kidneys with KDPI>90%. Kidneys at higher risk of discard may be offered in the up-front allocation system as a DKT. Further modeling and simulation studies are required to determine a reasonable KDPI cutoff percentile.

Prognosticating in patients with advanced cancer--observational study comparing the accuracy of clinicians' and patients' estimates of survival.

BACKGROUND: Clinicians' prognoses in patients with advanced cancer are imprecise. The aim of this study was to compare doctors', nurses' and patients' survival predictions and to identify factors which influence accuracy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Some 1018 patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Survival estimates were obtained from the attending doctor, nurse, multidisciplinary team (MDT) and patient (n = 829, 954, 987 and 290 estimates, respectively) and were compared with actual survival. Clinician and patient characteristics were recorded. RESULTS: MDTs', doctors' and nurses' predictions were accurate 57.5%, 56.3% and 55.5% of occasions, respectively. Nurses were less accurate than the MDT (P = 0.007) but were no worse than doctors (P = 0.284). Estimates of clinicians and patients were more optimistic (doctors: 31%; nurses: 34%; MDT: 31.1%; patients: 45.1%) than pessimistic (12.7%, 11%, 11.4% and 2.7%). Nurses' accuracy increased if they had reviewed the patient within 24 h. Most patients (61.4%) wanted to know their prognosis. Only 37.1% were willing to offer an estimate regarding their own survival. Patients' prognostic estimates were less accurate than health care professionals' (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: MDTs were better at predicting survival than doctors' or nurses' alone. Patients were substantially worse. Among nurses, recency of review was related to improved prognostic accuracy.

Bulk electronic structure of the dilute magnetic semiconductor Ga(1-x)Mn(x)As through hard X-ray angle-resolved photoemission.

A detailed understanding of the origin of the magnetism in dilute magnetic semiconductors is crucial to their development for applications. Using hard X-ray angle-resolved photoemission (HARPES) at 3.2 keV, we investigate the bulk electronic structure of the prototypical dilute magnetic semiconductor Ga(0.97)Mn(0.03)As, and the reference undoped GaAs. The data are compared to theory based on the coherent potential approximation and fully relativistic one-step-model photoemission calculations including matrix-element effects. Distinct differences are found between angle-resolved, as well as angle-integrated, valence spectra of Ga(0.97)Mn(0.03)As and GaAs, and these are in good agreement with theory. Direct observation of Mn-induced states between the GaAs valence-band maximum and the Fermi level, centred about 400 meV below this level, as well as changes throughout the full valence-level energy range, indicates that ferromagnetism in Ga(1-x)Mn(x)As must be considered to arise from both p-d exchange and double exchange, thus providing a more unifying picture of this controversial material.

A prevalence study of errors in opioid prescribing in a large teaching hospital.

AIM: In 2007, the National Patient Safety Agency performed a study demonstrating that errors in prescribing led to nearly 12,000 adverse clinical incidents a year. The following year, they issued a rapid response report entitled 'Reducing Dosing Errors with Opioid Medicines' designed to be implemented by all NHS trusts. We performed a prevalence study to assess opioid prescribing errors in our large multi-speciality teaching hospital prior to implementation of these recommendations. METHODOLOGY: We conducted a 1 day snapshot of opioid prescriptions on inpatient drug charts. For every chart, all opioid information was entered into the study proforma. All data were reviewed by consensus group and errors categorised by quality and whether they were potentially lethal, serious, significant or minor. RESULTS: A total of 330/722 (46%) charts were found to have opioid prescriptions. On the study day, there were 74 charts with errors and on expert review another 16 erroneous charts were found giving a total of 90/330 (27.2%). The largest quality statement error group was 'unclear prescription, missing information'. There were 4 potentially lethal, 26 serious, 38 significant and 22 minor errors. DISCUSSION: Previous studies have reported opioid prescription error rates of 51.2-70%. Compared with the opioid literature, our trust fares well with an error rate of 27%- four of these errors being potentially lethal. This study has identified where there are weaknesses in our hospital opioid prescribing practice and has aided us in rewriting our acute and chronic pain guidelines with the explicit inclusion of the National Patient Safety Agency recommendations. We have also disseminated the study results at the Trust academic meeting and developed an opioid e-learning package which will be mandatory for all new staff.

Embedded binary eutectic alloy nanostructures: a new class of phase change materials.

Phase change materials are essential to a number of technologies ranging from optical data storage to energy storage and transport applications. This widespread interest has given rise to a substantial effort to develop bulk phase change materials well suited for desired applications. Here, we suggest a novel and complementary approach, the use of binary eutectic alloy nanoparticles embedded within a matrix. Using GeSn nanoparticles embedded in silica as an example, we establish that the presence of a nanoparticle/matrix interface enables one to stabilize both nanobicrystal and homogeneous alloy morphologies. Further, the kinetics of switching between the two morphologies can be tuned simply by altering the composition.

The Prognosis in Palliative care Study II (PiPS2): A prospective observational validation study of a prognostic tool with an embedded qualitative evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis in Palliative care Study (PiPS) models predict survival probabilities in advanced cancer. PiPS-A (clinical observations only) and PiPS-B (additionally requiring blood results) consist of 14- and 56-day models (PiPS-A14; PiPS-A56; PiPS-B14; PiPS-B56) to create survival risk categories: days, weeks, months. The primary aim was to compare PIPS-B risk categories against agreed multi-professional estimates of survival (AMPES) and to validate PiPS-A and PiPS-B. Secondary aims were to assess acceptability of PiPS to patients, caregivers and health professionals (HPs). METHODS AND FINDINGS: A national, multi-centre, prospective, observational, cohort study with nested qualitative sub-study using interviews with patients, caregivers and HPs. Validation study participants were adults with incurable cancer; with or without capacity; recently referred to community, hospital and hospice palliative care services across England and Wales. Sub-study participants were patients, caregivers and HPs. 1833 participants were recruited. PiPS-B risk categories were as accurate as AMPES [PiPS-B accuracy (910/1484; 61%); AMPES (914/1484; 61%); p = 0.851]. PiPS-B14 discrimination (C-statistic 0.837) and PiPS-B56 (0.810) were excellent. PiPS-B14 predictions were too high in the 57-74% risk group (Calibration-in-the-large [CiL] -0.202; Calibration slope [CS] 0.840). PiPS-B56 was well-calibrated (CiL 0.152; CS 0.914). PiPS-A risk categories were less accurate than AMPES (p<0.001). PiPS-A14 (C-statistic 0.825; CiL -0.037; CS 0.981) and PiPS-A56 (C-statistic 0.776; CiL 0.109; CS 0.946) had excellent or reasonably good discrimination and calibration. Interviewed patients (n = 29) and caregivers (n = 20) wanted prognostic information and considered that PiPS may aid communication. HPs (n = 32) found PiPS user-friendly and considered risk categories potentially helpful for decision-making. The need for a blood test for PiPS-B was considered a limitation. CONCLUSIONS: PiPS-B risk categories are as accurate as AMPES made by experienced doctors and nurses. PiPS-A categories are less accurate. Patients, carers and HPs regard PiPS as potentially helpful in clinical practice. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN13688211.

Prognostic tools or clinical predictions: Which are better in palliative care?

PURPOSE: The Palliative Prognostic (PaP) score; Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI); Feliu Prognostic Nomogram (FPN) and Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) have all been proposed as prognostic tools for palliative cancer care. However, clinical judgement remains the principal way by which palliative care professionals determine prognoses and it is important that the performance of prognostic tools is compared against clinical predictions of survival (CPS). METHODS: This was a multi-centre, cohort validation study of prognostic tools. Study participants were adults with advanced cancer receiving palliative care, with or without capacity to consent. Key prognostic data were collected at baseline, shortly after referral to palliative care services. CPS were obtained independently from a doctor and a nurse. RESULTS: Prognostic data were collected on 1833 participants. All prognostic tools showed acceptable discrimination and calibration, but none showed superiority to CPS. Both PaP and CPS were equally able to accurately categorise patients according to their risk of dying within 30 days. There was no difference in performance between CPS and FPN at stratifying patients according to their risk of dying at 15, 30 or 60 days. PPI was significantly (p<0.001) worse than CPS at predicting which patients would survive for 3 or 6 weeks. PPS and CPS were both able to discriminate palliative care patients into multiple iso-prognostic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Although four commonly used prognostic algorithms for palliative care generally showed good discrimination and calibration, none of them demonstrated superiority to CPS. Prognostic tools which are less accurate than CPS are of no clinical use. However, prognostic tools which perform similarly to CPS may have other advantages to recommend them for use in clinical practice (e.g. being more objective, more reproducible, acting as a second opinion or as an educational tool). Future studies should therefore assess the impact of prognostic tools on clinical practice and decision-making.

The neural and vascular effects of killed Su-Streptococcus pyogenes (OK-432) in preterm fetal sheep.

Fetal exposure to inflammatory mediators is associated with a greater risk of brain injury and may cause endothelial dysfunction; however, nearly all the evidence is derived from gram-negative bacteria. Intrapleural injections of OK-432, a killed Su-strain of Streptococcus pyogenes, has been used to treat fetal chylothorax. In this study, we evaluated the neural and cardiovascular effects of OK-432 in preterm fetal sheep (104 +/- 1 days, term 147 days). OK-432 (0.1 mg, n = 6) or saline vehicle (n = 7) was infused in the fetal pleura, and fetuses were monitored for 7 days. Blood samples were taken routinely for plasma nitrite measurement. Fetal brains were taken for histological assessment at the end of the experiment. Between 3 and 7 h postinjection, OK-432 administration was associated with transient suppression of fetal body and breathing movements and electtroencephalogram activity (P < 0.05), increased carotid and femoral vascular resistance (P < 0.05), but no change in blood pressure. Brain activity and behavior then returned to normal except in one fetus that developed seizures. OK-432 fetuses showed progressive, sustained vasodilatation (P < 0.05), with lower blood pressure after 4 days (P < 0.05), but normal heart rate. There were no changes in plasma nitrite levels. Histological studies showed bilateral infarction in the dorsal limb of the hippocampus of the fetus that developed seizures, but no injury in other fetuses. We conclude that a single low-dose injection of OK-432 can be associated with risk of focal cerebral injury in the preterm fetus and chronic central and peripheral vasodilatation that does not appear to be mediated by nitric oxide.

A role for interleukin-6 in spreading endothelial cell activation after phagocytosis of necrotic trophoblastic material: implications for the pathogenesis of pre-eclampsia.

Pre-eclampsia is characterized by systemic maternal endothelial dysfunction that precedes the onset of clinical symptoms. The cause of the dysfunction is not clear but the number and the nature of trophoblasts shed from the placenta may be altered in pre-eclamptic pregnancies. These dead trophoblasts become trapped in the pulmonary capillaries and may then be phagocytosed by endothelial cells. Phagocytosis of necrotic, but not apoptotic, trophoblasts results in endothelial cell activation. We have explored the hypothesis that activation can subsequently spread to other endothelial cells via soluble factors without the need for direct contact with shed trophoblasts. Conditioned medium from endothelial cells that had phagocytosed necrotic, but not apoptotic, trophoblasts was shown to activate fresh endothelial cells due, in large part, to IL-6 secreted into the conditioned medium. The amount of IL-6 secreted in response to phagocytosis of necrotic trophoblasts was similar to the levels of IL-6 found by others in the blood of pre-eclamptic women and was substantially more than the level of IL-6 which has been reported to induce symptoms of pre-eclampsia in pregnant rats. We demonstrated that phagocytosis of both a trophoblast cell line as well as trophoblasts shed from human placentae, had this effect on two different types of endothelial cells. The role of IL-6 in endothelial cell activation was confirmed using recombinant IL-6 and neutralizing antibodies against IL-6 and the IL-6 receptor. Thus, IL-6 secreted by pulmonary endothelial cells after they have phagocytosed necrotic trophoblasts that are trapped in the pulmonary capillaries could activate endothelial cells in other remote vascular beds, contributing to the systemic activation of the endothelium that is a hallmark of pre-eclampsia.

Efficacy of embolic protection devices in renal artery stenting.

The efficacy of embolic protection devices (EPDs) have been studied extensively in coronary saphenous vein grafts and extra cranial cerebrovascular disease. Recent ex-vivo and in-vivo renal artery stenting studies suggest atheroembolism is not unique to the coronary and cerebrovascular domain and it seems intuitive, renal EPDs may be beneficial. In an attempt to better understand the current objective evidence regarding renal protection efficacy we systematically reviewed the contemporary literature and summarize the findings herein. There is increasing observational data suggesting the use of embolic protection devices decrease the risk of continued decline in renal function after renal artery stenting. There is also prospective randomized data to suggest that the use of adjuvant IIb/IIIa glycoprotein inhibitor and embolic protection has synergistic benefit, but this is a very small series. However, there are currently no well controlled prospective trials to conclude the added risk and expense of renal protection is countered by proven clinical benefit. Based on the literature compiled in this manuscript we do believe EPDs should be considered in some high-risk patients.

Support of nursing homes in infection management varies by US State Departments of Health.

BACKGROUND: In many countries, healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) are problematic in long-term aged care living facilities. In the United States (US), HAIs occur frequently in nursing homes (NHs). Identifying effective practices for state Departments of Health (DOHs) to help NHs improve infection prevention and control and reduce HAIs is necessary. AIM: As a first step, the objective was to systematically examine and catalogue the variations in state intentions and activities related to HAI prevention in NHs. METHODS: An environmental scan of state DOH websites, HAI plans, and HAI state infographics was conducted. Data were collected on 16 items across three domains: (1) intentions to reduce HAIs in NHs, (2) actions to reduce HAIs in NHs, and (3) website usability. FINDINGS: State infection control support for NHs varied widely. Most states (92%) mentioned NHs in their HAI plans and 76% included NHs in their infographic. Half has an HAI prevention advisory council, while one-third had a state HAI prevention collaborative. Only 57% of HAI plans that mentioned NHs included training materials on HAI reduction. The most common training available was on antibiotic stewardship. CONCLUSION: Many US states have room for improvement in the support they provide NHs regarding infection prevention and control. Specific areas of improvement include: (1) increased provision of training materials on HAI reduction, (2) focusing training materials on common HAIs, and (3) NH engagement in collaboratives aimed at HAI reduction. More research is needed linking DOH activities to resident outcomes.