RESUMEN
Simulating the change of ecosystem service values (ESV) caused by land use/cover change (LUCC) in the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province is of great significance for regional sustainable development and ecological security. Based on remote sensing images of land use and Statistics Yearbook of 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the influence of LUCC on ESV in the study area during 2000-2020. We used the PLUS model to simulate land use change under three scenarios, including inertial development, ecological protection, and urban development in 2030, analyzed the spatial distribution and concentration degree of ESVs based on grid scale, and clarified the sensitivity characteristics of ESVs. The results showed that the construction land area showed an increasing trend during 2000-2020. The area of forest, cultivated land and water decreased significantly, resulting in a continuous downward trend of ESVs, which decreased by 160×108 yuan. Under the simulation of three scenarios of inertial development, ecological development, and urban development, the construction land area would increase by 93624, 54927, and 111966 hm2, respectively. The eastern plain would become the agglomeration area of construction land expansion. The ESVs of those three scenarios was 1693×108, 1729×108, and 1688×108 yuan, respectively, which were all lower than the ESVs of the study area in 2020. The decline rate of ESV in the ecological protection scenario slowed down. The spatial distribution of ESVs in the study area was high in the west and low in the east. Hot spots and cold spots of ESVs were distributed in a large range with strong agglomeration. Hot spots were mainly concentrated in the west, while cold spots were mainly distributed in the east and north.