Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060. METHODS: A dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985-2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000-2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection. RESULTS: The projected number and percent of adults with diagnosed diabetes would increase from 22.3 million (9.1%) in 2014 to 39.7 million (13.9%) in 2030, and to 60.6 million (17.9%) in 2060. The number of people with diabetes aged 65 years or older would increase from 9.2 million in 2014 to 21.0 million in 2030, and to 35.2 million in 2060. The percent prevalence would increase in all race-sex groups, with black women and men continuing to have the highest diabetes percent prevalence, and black women and women of other race having the largest relative increases. CONCLUSIONS: By 2060, the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes is projected to nearly triple, and the percent prevalence double. Our estimates are essential to predict health services needs and plan public health programs aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes.

Medical Expenditures Associated With Diabetes Among Youth With Medicaid Coverage.

BACKGROUND: Information on diabetes-related excess medical expenditures for youth is important to understand the magnitude of financial burden and to plan the health care resources needed for managing diabetes. However, diabetes-related excess medical expenditures for youth covered by Medicaid program have not been investigated recently. OBJECTIVE: To estimate excess diabetes-related medical expenditures among youth aged below 20 years enrolled in Medicaid programs in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed data from 2008 to 2012 MarketScan multistate Medicaid database for 6502 youths with diagnosed diabetes and 6502 propensity score matched youths without diabetes, enrolled in fee-for-service payment plans. We stratified analysis by Medicaid eligibility criteria (poverty or disability). We used 2-part regression models to estimate diabetes-related excess medical expenditures, adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, year of claims, depression status, asthma status, and interaction terms. RESULTS: For poverty-based Medicaid enrollees, estimated annual diabetes-related total medical expenditure was $9046 per person [$3681 (no diabetes) vs. $12,727 (diabetes); P<0001], of which 41.7%, 34.0%, and 24.3% were accounted for by prescription drugs, outpatient, and inpatient care, respectively. For disability-based Medicaid enrollees, the estimated annual diabetes-related total medical expenditure was $9944 per person ($14,149 vs. $24,093; P<0001), of which 41.5% was accounted for by prescription drugs, 31.3% by inpatient, and 27.3% by outpatient care. CONCLUSIONS: The per capita annual diabetes-related medical expenditures in youth covered by publicly financed Medicaid programs are substantial, which is larger among those with disabilities than without disabilities. Identifying cost-effective ways of managing diabetes in this vulnerable segment of the youth population is needed.

Using multi-year national survey cohorts for period estimates: an application of weighted discrete Poisson regression for assessing annual national mortality in US adults with and without diabetes, 2000-2006.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring national mortality among persons with a disease is important to guide and evaluate progress in disease control and prevention. However, a method to estimate nationally representative annual mortality among persons with and without diabetes in the United States does not currently exist. The aim of this study is to demonstrate use of weighted discrete Poisson regression on national survey mortality follow-up data to estimate annual mortality rates among adults with diabetes. METHODS: To estimate mortality among US adults with diabetes, we applied a weighted discrete time-to-event Poisson regression approach with post-stratification adjustment to national survey data. Adult participants aged 18 or older with and without diabetes in the National Health Interview Survey 1997-2004 were followed up through 2006 for mortality status. We estimated mortality among all US adults, and by self-reported diabetes status at baseline. The time-varying covariates used were age and calendar year. Mortality among all US adults was validated using direct estimates from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). RESULTS: Using our approach, annual all-cause mortality among all US adults ranged from 8.8 deaths per 1,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.0, 9.6) in year 2000 to 7.9 (95% CI: 7.6, 8.3) in year 2006. By comparison, the NVSS estimates ranged from 8.6 to 7.9 (correlation = 0.94). All-cause mortality among persons with diabetes decreased from 35.7 (95% CI: 28.4, 42.9) in 2000 to 31.8 (95% CI: 28.5, 35.1) in 2006. After adjusting for age, sex, and race/ethnicity, persons with diabetes had 2.1 (95% CI: 2.01, 2.26) times the risk of death of those without diabetes. CONCLUSION: Period-specific national mortality can be estimated for people with and without a chronic condition using national surveys with mortality follow-up and a discrete time-to-event Poisson regression approach with post-stratification adjustment.

The Impact of Repeat Hospitalizations on Hospitalization Rates for Selected Conditions Among Adults With and Without Diabetes, 12 US States, 2011.

INTRODUCTION: Hospitalization data typically cannot be used to estimate the number of individuals hospitalized annually because individuals are not tracked over time and may be hospitalized multiple times annually. We examined the impact of repeat hospitalizations on hospitalization rates for various conditions and on comparison of rates by diabetes status. METHODS: We analyzed hospitalization data for which repeat hospitalizations could be distinguished among adults aged 18 or older from 12 states using the 2011 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's State Inpatient Databases. The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System was used to estimate the number of adults with and without diagnosed diabetes in each state (denominator). We calculated percentage increases due to repeat hospitalizations in rates and compared the ratio of diabetes with non-diabetes rates while excluding and including repeat hospitalizations. RESULTS: Regardless of diabetes status, hospitalization rates were considerably higher when repeat hospitalizations within a calendar year were included. The magnitude of the differences varied by condition. Among adults with diabetes, rates ranged from 13.0% higher for stroke to 41.6% higher for heart failure; for adults without diabetes, these rates ranged from 9.5% higher for stroke to 25.2% higher for heart failure. Ratios of diabetes versus non-diabetes rates were similar with and without repeat hospitalizations. CONCLUSION: Hospitalization rates that include repeat hospitalizations overestimate rates in individuals, and this overestimation is especially pronounced for some causes. However, the inclusion of repeat hospitalizations for common diabetes-related causes had little impact on rates by diabetes status.

Prevalence and incidence trends for diagnosed diabetes among adults aged 20 to 79 years, United States, 1980-2012.

IMPORTANCE: Although the prevalence and incidence of diabetes have increased in the United States in recent decades, no studies have systematically examined long-term, national trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes. OBJECTIVE: To examine long-term trends in the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes to determine whether there have been periods of acceleration or deceleration in rates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We analyzed 1980-2012 data for 664,969 adults aged 20 to 79 years from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to estimate incidence and prevalence rates for the overall civilian, noninstitutionalized, US population and by demographic subgroups (age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational level). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The annual percentage change (APC) in rates of the prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes (type 1 and type 2 combined). RESULTS: The APC for age-adjusted prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes did not change significantly during the 1980s (for prevalence, 0.2% [95% CI, -0.9% to 1.4%], P = .69; for incidence, -0.1% [95% CI, -2.5% to 2.4%], P = .93), but each increased sharply during 1990-2008 (for prevalence, 4.5% [95% CI, 4.1% to 4.9%], P < .001; for incidence, 4.7% [95% CI, 3.8% to 5.6%], P < .001) before leveling off with no significant change during 2008-2012 (for prevalence, 0.6% [95% CI, -1.9% to 3.0%], P = .64; for incidence, -5.4% [95% CI, -11.3% to 0.9%], P = .09). The prevalence per 100 persons was 3.5 (95% CI, 3.2 to 3.9) in 1990, 7.9 (95% CI, 7.4 to 8.3) in 2008, and 8.3 (95% CI, 7.9 to 8.7) in 2012. The incidence per 1000 persons was 3.2 (95% CI, 2.2 to 4.1) in 1990, 8.8 (95% CI, 7.4 to 10.3) in 2008, and 7.1 (95% CI, 6.1 to 8.2) in 2012. Trends in many demographic subpopulations were similar to these overall trends. However, incidence rates among non-Hispanic black and Hispanic adults continued to increase (for interaction, P = .03 for non-Hispanic black adults and P = .01 for Hispanic adults) at rates significantly greater than for non-Hispanic white adults. In addition, the rate of increase in prevalence was higher for adults who had a high school education or less compared with those who had more than a high school education (for interaction, P = .006 for

Modeling the impact of prevention policies on future diabetes prevalence in the United States: 2010-2030.

BACKGROUND: Although diabetes is one of the most costly and rapidly increasing serious chronic diseases worldwide, the optimal mix of strategies to reduce diabetes prevalence has not been determined. METHODS: Using a dynamic model that incorporates national data on diabetes prevalence and incidence, migration, mortality rates, and intervention effectiveness, we project the effect of five hypothetical prevention policies on future US diabetes rates through 2030: 1) no diabetes prevention strategy; 2) a "high-risk" strategy, wherein adults with both impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (fasting plasma glucose of 100-124 mg/dl) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) (2-hour post-load glucose of 141-199 mg/dl) receive structured lifestyle intervention; 3) a "moderate-risk" strategy, wherein only adults with IFG are offered structured lifestyle intervention; 4) a "population-wide" strategy, in which the entire population is exposed to broad risk reduction policies; and 5) a "combined" strategy, involving both the moderate-risk and population-wide strategies. We assumed that the moderate- and high-risk strategies reduce the annual diabetes incidence rate in the targeted subpopulations by 12.5% through 2030 and that the population-wide approach would reduce the projected annual diabetes incidence rate by 2% in the entire US population. RESULTS: We project that by the year 2030, the combined strategy would prevent 4.6 million incident cases and 3.6 million prevalent cases, attenuating the increase in diabetes prevalence by 14%. The moderate-risk approach is projected to prevent 4.0 million incident cases, 3.1 million prevalent cases, attenuating the increase in prevalence by 12%. The high-risk and population approaches attenuate the projected prevalence increases by 5% and 3%, respectively. Even if the most effective strategy is implemented (the combined strategy), our projections indicate that the diabetes prevalence rate would increase by about 65% over the 23 years (i.e., from 12.9% in 2010 to 21.3% in 2030). CONCLUSIONS: While implementation of appropriate diabetes prevention strategies may slow the rate of increase of the prevalence of diabetes among US adults through 2030, the US diabetes prevalence rate is likely to increase dramatically over the next 20 years. Demand for health care services for people with diabetes complications and diabetes-related disability will continue to grow, and these services will need to be strengthened along with primary diabetes prevention efforts.

Small area variation in diabetes prevalence in Puerto Rico.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the 2009 prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in Puerto Rico among adults ≥ 20 years of age in order to gain a better understanding of its geographic distribution so that policymakers can more efficiently target prevention and control programs. METHODS: A Bayesian multilevel model was fitted to the combined 2008-2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and 2009 United States Census data to estimate diabetes prevalence for each of the 78 municipios (counties) in Puerto Rico. RESULTS: The mean unadjusted estimate for all counties was 14.3% (range by county, 9.9%-18.0%). The average width of the confidence intervals was 6.2%. Adjusted and unadjusted estimates differed little. CONCLUSIONS: These 78 county estimates are higher on average and showed less variability (i.e., had a smaller range) than the previously published estimates of the 2008 diabetes prevalence for all United States counties (mean, 9.9%; range, 3.0%-18.2%).

Smoking and visual impairment among older adults with age-related eye diseases.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco use is the leading preventable cause of death in the United States. Visual impairment, a common cause of disability in the United States, is associated with shorter life expectancy and lower quality of life. The relationship between smoking and visual impairment is not clearly understood. We assessed the association between smoking and visual impairment among older adults with age-related eye diseases. METHODS: We analyzed Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data from 2005 through 2008 on older adults with age-related eye diseases (cataract, glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration, and diabetic retinopathy; age ≥50 y, N = 36,522). Visual impairment was defined by self-reported difficulty in recognizing a friend across the street or difficulty in reading print or numbers. Current smokers were respondents who reported having smoked at least 100 cigarettes ever and still smoked at the time of interview. Former smokers were respondents who reported having ever smoked at least 100 cigarettes but currently did not smoke. We used multivariate logistic regressions to examine the association and to adjust for potential confounders. RESULTS: Among respondents with age-related eye diseases, the estimated prevalence of visual impairment was higher among current smokers (48%) than among former smokers (41%, P < .05) and respondents who had never smoked (42%, P < .05). After adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and general health status, current smokers with age-related eye diseases were more likely to have visual impairment than respondents with age-related eye diseases who had never smoked (odds ratio, 1.16, P < .05). Furthermore, respondents with cataract who were current smokers were more likely to have visual impairment than respondents with cataract who had never smoked (predictive margin, 44% vs 40%, P = .03), and the same was true for respondents with age-related macular degeneration (65% of current smokers vs 57% of never smokers, P = .02). This association did not hold true among respondents with glaucoma or diabetic retinopathy. CONCLUSION: Smoking is linked to self-reported visual impairment among older adults with age-related eye diseases, particularly cataract and age-related macular degeneration. Longitudinal evaluation is needed to assess smoking cessation's effect on vision preservation.

Characteristics of insured patients with persistent gaps in diabetes care services: the Translating Research into Action for Diabetes (TRIAD) study.

BACKGROUND: Although preventing diabetes complications requires long-term management, little is known about which patients persistently fail to get recommended care. OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency and correlates of persistent, long-term gaps in diabetes care. METHOD: : The study population included 8392 patients with diabetes. Patient surveys and medical records from 10 health plans over 3 years provided data on socioeconomic characteristics, access to care, social support, and mental and physical health, and diabetes preventive care services. We defined a "persistent gap" as a participant's missing a preventive care service for the entire 3 years. Services considered included hemoglobin A1c, cholesterol, and albuminuria tests, and foot and dilated eye examinations. RESULTS: Thirty percent of participants had at least 1 persistent gap. The most common gaps were lipid testing (11.6%), microalbuminuria testing (9.7%), and eye examinations (9.0%). Persistent gaps were 18% to 42% higher for young patients, lean persons, those with low income, employed persons, smokers, those with diabetes less than 5 years, and patients with none or 1 comorbid conditions. Sex, education, marital status, family demands, transportation, trust in physicians, and mental health were not associated with gaps in care. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent gaps in diabetes care are common even among insured patients. Patients with lower income, younger age, fewer years of diabetes, having fewer comorbidities, taking fewer medications, and poor health behaviors are vulnerable to persistent gaps in care and a group who warrant targeted interventions to improve preventive diabetes care.

Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence.

BACKGROUND: People with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs. METHODS: Using data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk. RESULTS: The authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: These projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.

Two risk-scoring systems for predicting incident diabetes mellitus in U.S. adults age 45 to 64 years.

BACKGROUND: Simple prediction scores could help identify adults at high risk for diabetes. OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate scoring systems by using longitudinal data from a study that repeatedly tested for incident diabetes. DESIGN: Prospective cohort, divided into derivation and validation samples. SETTING: The ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study, which followed participants for 14.9 years beginning in 1987 to 1989. PARTICIPANTS: 12 729 U.S. adults (baseline age, 45 to 64 years; 22.8% black). Follow-up was 96.1% at 5 years and 72.2% at 10 years. MEASUREMENTS: Anthropometry, blood pressure, and pulse (basic system) plus a fasting blood specimen assayed for common analytes (enhanced system). Diabetes was identified in 18.9% of participants. Risk score integer points were derived from proportional hazard coefficients associated with baseline categorical variables and quintiles of continuous variables. RESULTS: The basic scoring system included waist circumference (10 to 35 points); maternal diabetes (13 points); hypertension (11 points); and paternal diabetes, short stature, black race, age 55 years or older, increased weight, rapid pulse, and smoking history (< or =8 points each). The enhanced system included glucose (6 to 28 points); waist circumference (5 to 21 points); maternal diabetes (8 points); and triglycerides, black race, paternal diabetes, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration, short stature, high uric acid, age 55 years or older, hypertension, rapid pulse, and nonuse of alcohol (< or =7 points each). When applied to the validation sample, ascending quintiles of the basic system were associated with a 10-year incidence of diabetes of 5.3%, 8.7%, 15.5%, 24.5%, and 33.0%, respectively. Quintiles of the enhanced system were associated with a 10-year incidence of 3.5%, 6.4%, 11.5%, 19.3%, and 46.1%. LIMITATIONS: The risk scoring systems had no question regarding previous gestational diabetes, and knowledge of parental diabetes may be uncertain. The analyzed cohort was restricted by age and race; the systems may be less effective in other samples. CONCLUSION: Basic information identified adults at high risk for diabetes. Additional data from fasting blood tests better identified those at extreme risk.

The long-term effect of lifestyle interventions to prevent diabetes in the China Da Qing Diabetes Prevention Study: a 20-year follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Intensive lifestyle interventions can reduce the incidence of type 2 diabetes in people with impaired glucose tolerance, but how long these benefits extend beyond the period of active intervention, and whether such interventions reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality, is unclear. We aimed to assess whether intensive lifestyle interventions have a long-term effect on the risk of diabetes, diabetes-related macrovascular and microvascular complications, and mortality. METHODS: In 1986, 577 adults with impaired glucose tolerance from 33 clinics in China were randomly assigned to either the control group or to one of three lifestyle intervention groups (diet, exercise, or diet plus exercise). Active intervention took place over 6 years until 1992. In 2006, study participants were followed-up to assess the long-term effect of the interventions. The primary outcomes were diabetes incidence, CVD incidence and mortality, and all-cause mortality. FINDINGS: Compared with control participants, those in the combined lifestyle intervention groups had a 51% lower incidence of diabetes (hazard rate ratio [HRR] 0.49; 95% CI 0.33-0.73) during the active intervention period and a 43% lower incidence (0.57; 0.41-0.81) over the 20 year period, controlled for age and clustering by clinic. The average annual incidence of diabetes was 7% for intervention participants versus 11% in control participants, with 20-year cumulative incidence of 80% in the intervention groups and 93% in the control group. Participants in the intervention group spent an average of 3.6 fewer years with diabetes than those in the control group. There was no significant difference between the intervention and control groups in the rate of first CVD events (HRR 0.98; 95% CI 0.71-1.37), CVD mortality (0.83; 0.48-1.40), and all-cause mortality (0.96; 0.65-1.41), but our study had limited statistical power to detect differences for these outcomes. INTERPRETATION: Group-based lifestyle interventions over 6 years can prevent or delay diabetes for up to 14 years after the active intervention. However, whether lifestyle intervention also leads to reduced CVD and mortality remains unclear.

Investing time in health: do socioeconomically disadvantaged patients spend more or less extra time on diabetes self-care?

BACKGROUND: Research on self-care for chronic disease has not examined time requirements. Translating Research into Action for Diabetes (TRIAD), a multi-site study of managed care patients with diabetes, is among the first to assess self-care time. OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between socioeconomic position and extra time patients spend on foot care, shopping/cooking, and exercise due to diabetes. DATA: Eleven thousand nine hundred and twenty-seven patient surveys from 2000 to 2001. METHODS: Bayesian two-part models were used to estimate associations of self-reported extra time spent on self-care with race/ethnicity, education, and income, controlling for demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: Proportions of patients spending no extra time on foot care, shopping/cooking, and exercise were, respectively, 37, 52, and 31%. Extra time spent on foot care and shopping/cooking was greater among racial/ethnic minorities, less-educated and lower-income patients. For example, African-Americans were about 10 percentage points more likely to report spending extra time on foot care than whites and extra time spent was about 3 min more per day. DISCUSSION: Extra time spent on self-care was greater for socioeconomically disadvantaged patients than for advantaged patients, perhaps because their perceived opportunity cost of time is lower or they cannot afford substitutes. Our findings suggest that poorly controlled diabetes risk factors among disadvantaged populations may not be attributable to self-care practices.

The association between quality of care and the intensity of diabetes disease management programs.

BACKGROUND: Although disease management programs are widely implemented, little is known about their effectiveness. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether disease management by physician groups is associated with diabetes care processes, control of intermediate outcomes, or the amount of medication used when intermediate outcomes are above target levels. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Patients were randomly sampled from 63 physician groups nested in 7 health plans sponsored by Translating Research into Action for Diabetes (87%) and from 4 health plans with individual physician contracts (13%). PATIENTS: 8661 adults with diabetes who completed a survey (2000-2001) and had medical record data. MEASUREMENTS: Physician group and health plan directors described their organizations' use of physician reminders, performance feedback, and structured care management on a survey; their responses were used to determine measures of intensity of disease management. The current study measured 8 processes of care, including most recent hemoglobin A1c level, systolic blood pressure, serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, and several measures of medication use. RESULTS: Increased use of any of 3 disease management strategies was significantly associated with higher adjusted rates of retinal screening, nephropathy screening, foot examinations, and measurement of hemoglobin A1c levels. Serum lipid level testing and influenza vaccine administration were associated with greater use of structured care management and performance feedback. Greater use of performance feedback correlated with an increased rate of foot examinations (difference, 5 percentage points [95% CI, 1 to 8 percentage points]), and greater use of physician reminders was associated with an increased rate of nephropathy screening (difference, 15 percentage points [CI, 6 to 23 percentage points]). No strategies were associated with intermediate outcome levels or level of medication management. LIMITATIONS: Physician groups were not randomly sampled from population-based listings, and disease management strategies were not randomly allocated across groups. CONCLUSIONS: Disease management strategies were associated with better processes of diabetes care but not with improved intermediate outcomes or level of medication management. A greater focus on direct measurement, feedback, and reporting of intermediate outcome levels or of level of medication management may enhance the effectiveness of these programs.

Is the number of documented diabetes process-of-care indicators associated with cardiometabolic risk factor levels, patient satisfaction, or self-rated quality of diabetes care? The Translating Research into Action for Diabetes (TRIAD) study.

OBJECTIVE: Simple process-of-care indicators are commonly recommended to assess and compare quality of diabetes care across health plans. We sought to determine whether variation in the number of simple diabetes processes of care across provider groups is associated with variation in other quality indicators, including cardiometabolic risk factor levels, patient satisfaction with care, or patient-rated quality of care. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used cross-sectional survey and chart audit data for 8,733 patients with diabetes who received care from 68 provider groups nested in 10 health plans that participated in the Translating Research Into Action for Diabetes study. Analyses using hierarchical regression models assessed associations of the mean number of seven simple process measures with each of the following: HbA(1c) (A1C), systolic blood pressure (SBP), HDL and LDL cholesterol levels, patient satisfaction with care, and patient-rated quality of care. RESULTS: After adjusting for case-mix differences across groups and plans, an average of one additional documented process of care for each patient in a group or plan was associated with significantly lower mean LDL cholesterol levels (-4.51 mg/dl [95% CI 1.46-7.58]) but not with A1C, SBP, or HDL cholesterol levels. The number of care processes documented was associated with patient satisfaction measures and self-rated quality of diabetes care. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in the number of simple process-of-care indicators across provider groups or health plans is associated with differences in patient-centered measures of quality, but assessment of the quality of cardiometabolic risk factor control will require more advanced clinical performance indicators.

Diabetes reporting as a cause of death: results from the Translating Research Into Action for Diabetes (TRIAD) study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency of reporting of diabetes on death certificates of decedents with known diabetes, define factors associated with reporting of diabetes, and describe trends in reporting over time. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were obtained from 11,927 participants with diabetes who were enrolled in the Translating Research Into Action for Diabetes study, a multicenter prospective observational study of diabetes care in managed care. Data on decedents (n = 540) were obtained from the National Death Index. The primary dependent variable was the presence of ICD-10 codes for diabetes on the death certificate. Covariates included age at death, sex, race/ethnicity, education, income, duration of diabetes, type of diabetes, diabetes treatment, smoking status, and number of comorbidities. RESULTS: Diabetes was recorded on 39% of death certificates and as the underlying cause of death for 10% of decedents with diabetes. Diabetes was significantly less likely to be reported on the death certificates of decedents with diabetes dying of cancer. Predictors of recording diabetes anywhere on the death certificate included longer duration of diabetes and insulin treatment. Longer duration of diabetes, insulin treatment, and fewer comorbidities were associated with recording of diabetes as the underlying cause of death. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes is much more likely to be reported on the death certificates of diabetic individuals who die of cardiovascular causes. Reporting of diabetes on death certificates has been stable over time. Death certificates underestimate the prevalence of diabetes among decedents and present a biased picture of the causes of death among people with diabetes.

Who is tested for diabetic kidney disease and who initiates treatment? The Translating Research Into Action For Diabetes (TRIAD) Study.

OBJECTIVE: We examined factors associated with screening for albuminuria and initiation of ACE inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) treatment in diabetic patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted surveys and medical record reviews for 5,378 patients participating in a study of diabetes care in managed care at baseline (2000-2001) and follow-up (2002-2003). Factors associated with testing for albuminuria were examined in cross-sectional analysis at baseline. Factors associated with initiating ACE inhibitor/ARB therapy were determined prospectively. RESULTS: At baseline, 52% of patients not receiving ACE inhibitor/ARB therapy and without known diabetic kidney disease (DKD) were screened for albuminuria. Patients > or =65 years of age, those with higher HbA(1c), those with cardiovascular disease (CVD), and those without hyperlipidemia were less likely to be screened. Of the patients with positive screening tests, 47% began ACE inhibitor/ARB therapy. Initiation of therapy was associated with positive screening test results, BMI > or =25 kg/m(2), treatment with insulin or oral antidiabetic agents, peripheral neuropathy, systolic blood pressure > or =140 mmHg, and CVD. Of the patients receiving ACE inhibitor/ARB therapy or with known DKD, 63% were tested for albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS: Screening for albuminuria was inadequate, especially in older patients or those with competing medical concerns. The value of screening could be increased if more patients with positive screening tests initiated ACE inhibitor/ARB therapy. The efficiency of screening could be improved by limiting screening to diabetic patients not receiving ACE inhibitor/ARB therapy and without known DKD.

Are physician reimbursement strategies associated with processes of care and patient satisfaction for patients with diabetes in managed care?

OBJECTIVE: To examine associations between physician reimbursement incentives and diabetes care processes and explore potential confounding with physician organizational model. DATA SOURCES: Primary data collected during 2000-2001 in 10 managed care plans. STUDY DESIGN: Multilevel logistic regressions were used to estimate associations between reimbursement incentives and process measures, including the receipt of dilated eye exams, foot exams, influenza immunizations, advice to take aspirin, and assessments of glycemic control, proteinuria, and lipid profile. Reimbursement measures included the proportions of compensation received from salary, capitation, fee-for-service (FFS), and performance-based payment; the performance-based payment criteria used; and interactions of these criteria with the strength of the performance-based payment incentive. DATA COLLECTION: Patient, provider group, and health plan surveys and medical record reviews were conducted for 6,194 patients with diabetes. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Without controlling for physician organizational model, care processes were better when physician compensation was based primarily on direct salary rather than FFS reimbursement (four of seven processes were better, with relative risks ranging from 1.13 to 1.23) or capitation (six were better, with relative risks from 1.06 to 1.36); and when quality/satisfaction scores influenced physician compensation (three were better, with relative risks from 1.17 to 1.26). However, these associations were substantially confounded by organizational model. CONCLUSIONS: Physician reimbursement strategies are associated with diabetes care processes, although their independent contributions are difficult to assess, due to high correlation with physician organizational model. Regardless of causality, a group's use of quality/satisfaction scores to determine physician compensation may indicate delivery of high-quality diabetes care.

Compression of disability between two birth cohorts of US adults with diabetes, 1992-2012: a prospective longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: The life expectancy of the average American with diabetes has increased, but the quality of health and functioning during those extra years are unknown. We aimed to investigate the net effect of recent trends in diabetes incidence, disability, and mortality on the average age of disability onset and the number of healthy and disabled years lived by adults with and without diabetes in the USA. We assessed whether disability expanded or was compressed in the population with diabetes and compared the findings with those for the population without diabetes in two consecutive US birth cohorts aged 50-70 years. METHODS: In this prospective longitudinal analysis, we analysed data for two cohorts of US adults aged 50-70 years from the Health and Retirement Study, including 1367 people with diabetes and 11 414 without diabetes. We assessed incident disability, remission from disability, and mortality between population-based cohort 1 (born 1931-41, follow-up 1992-2002) and cohort 2 (born 1942-47, follow up 2002-12). Disability was defined by mobility loss, difficulty with one or more instrumental activities of daily living, and difficulty with one or more activities of daily living. We entered age-specific probabilities representing the two birth cohorts into a five-state Markov model to estimate the number of years of disabled and disability-free life and life-years lost by age 70 years. FINDINGS: In people with diabetes, compared with cohort 1 (n=1067), cohort 2 (n=300) had more disability-free and total years of life, later onset of disability, and fewer disabled years. Simulations of the Markov models suggest that in men with diabetes aged 50 years, this difference between cohorts amounted to a 0·8-2·3 year delay in disability across the three metrics (mobility, 63·0 [95% CI 62·3-63·6] to 64·8 [63·6-65·7], p=0·01; instrumental activities of daily living, 63·5 [63·0-64·0] to 64·3 [63·0-65·3], p=0·24; activities of daily living, 62·7 [62·1-63·3] to 65·0 [63·5-65·9], p<0·0001) and 1·3 fewer life-years lost (ie, fewer remaining life-years up to age 70 years; from 2·8 [2·5-3·2] to 1·5 [1·3-1·9]; p<0·0001 for all three measures of disability). Among women with diabetes aged 50 years, this difference between cohorts amounted to a 1·1-2·3 year delay in disability across the three metrics (mobility, 61·3 [95% CI 60·5-62·1] to 63·2 [61·5-64·5], p=0·0416; instrumental activities of daily living, 63·0 [62·4-63·7] to 64·1 [62·7-65·2], p=0·16; activities of daily living, 62·3 [61·6-63·0] to 64·6 [63·1-65·6], p<0·0001) and 0·8 fewer life-years lost by age 70 years (1·9 [1·7-2·2] to 1·1 [0·9-1·5]; p<0·0001 for all three measures of disability). Parallel improvements were gained between cohorts of adults without diabetes (cohort 1, n=8687; cohort 2, n=2727); within both cohorts, those without diabetes had significantly more disability-free years than those with diabetes (p<0·0001 for all comparisons). INTERPRETATION: Irrespective of diabetes status, US adults saw a compression of disability and gains in disability-free life-years. The decrease in disability onset due to primary prevention of diabetes could play an important part in achieving longer disability-free life-years. FUNDING: US Department of Health & Human Services and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Disability-Free Life-Years Lost Among Adults Aged ≥50 Years With and Without Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the impact of diabetes status on healthy and disabled years of life for older adults in the U.S. and provide a baseline from which to evaluate ongoing national public health efforts to prevent and control diabetes and disability. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Adults (n = 20,008) aged 50 years and older were followed from 1998 to 2012 in the Health and Retirement Study, a prospective biannual survey of a nationally representative sample of adults. Diabetes and disability status (defined by mobility loss, difficulty with instrumental activities of daily living [IADL], and/or difficulty with activities of daily living [ADL]) were self-reported. We estimated incidence of disability, remission to nondisability, and mortality. We developed a discrete-time Markov simulation model with a 1-year transition cycle to predict and compare lifetime disability-related outcomes between people with and without diabetes. Data represent the U.S. population in 1998. RESULTS: From age 50 years, adults with diabetes died 4.6 years earlier, developed disability 6-7 years earlier, and spent about 1-2 more years in a disabled state than adults without diabetes. With increasing baseline age, diabetes was associated with significant (P < 0.05) reductions in the number of total and disability-free life-years, but the absolute difference in years between those with and without diabetes was less than at younger baseline age. Men with diabetes spent about twice as many of their remaining years disabled (20-24% of remaining life across the three disability definitions) as men without diabetes (12-16% of remaining life across the three disability definitions). Similar associations between diabetes status and disability-free and disabled years were observed among women. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes is associated with a substantial reduction in nondisabled years, to a greater extent than the reduction of longevity.