Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.

Setting priorities for conservation at the interface between ocean circulation, connectivity, and population dynamics.

Population persistence in the marine environment is driven by patterns of ocean circulation, larval dispersal, ecological interactions, and demographic rates. For habitat-forming organisms in particular, understanding the relationship between larval connectivity and meta-population dynamics aids in planning for marine spatial management. Here, we estimate networks of connectivity between fringing coral reefs in the northwest shelf of Australia by combining a particle tracking model based on shelf circulation with models of subpopulation dynamics of individual reefs. Coral cover data were used as a proxy for overall habitat quality, which can change as a result of natural processes, human-driven impacts, and management initiatives. We obtain three major results of conservation significance. First, the dynamics of the ecological network result from the interplay between network connectivity and ecological processes on individual reefs. The maximum coral cover a zone can sustain imposes a significant nonlinearity on the role an individual reef plays within the dynamics of the network, and thus on the impact of conservation interventions on specific reefs. Second, the role of an individual reef within these network dynamics changes considerably depending on the overall state of the system: a reef's role in sustaining the system's state can be different from the same reef's role in helping the system recover following major disturbance. Third, patterns of network connectivity change significantly as a function of yearly shelf circulation trends, and nonlinearity in network dynamics make mean connectivity a poor representation of yearly variations. From a management perspective, the priority list of reefs that are targets for management interventions depends crucially on what type of stressors (system-wide vs. localized) need addressing. This choice also depends not only on the ultimate purpose of management, but also on future oceanographic, climate change, and development scenarios that will determine the network connectivity and habitat quality.

Early recovery dynamics of turbid coral reefs after recurring bleaching events.

The worlds' coral reefs are declining due to the combined effects of natural disturbances and anthropogenic pressures including thermal coral bleaching associated with global climate change. Nearshore corals are receiving increased anthropogenic stress from coastal development and nutrient run-off. Considering forecast increases in global temperatures, greater understanding of drivers of recovery on nearshore coral reefs following widespread bleaching events is required to inform management of local stressors. The west Pilbara coral reefs, with cross-shelf turbidity gradients coupled with a large nearby dredging program and recent history of repeated coral bleaching due to heat stress, represent an opportune location to study recovery from multiple disturbances. Mean coral cover at west Pilbara reefs was monitored from 2009 to 2018 and declined from 45% in 2009 to 5% in 2014 following three heat waves. Recruitment and juvenile abundance of corals were monitored from 2014 to 2018 and were combined with biological and physical data to identify which variables enhanced or hindered early-stage coral recovery of all hard corals and separately for the acroporids, the genera principally responsible for recovery in the short-term (<7 years). From 2014 to 2018, coral cover increased from 5 to 10% but recovery varied widely among sites (0-13%). Hard coral cover typically recovered most at shallower sites that had higher abundance of herbivorous fish, less macroalgae, and lower turbidity. Similarly, acroporid corals recovered most at sites with lower turbidity and macroalgal cover. Juvenile acroporid densities were a good indicator of recovery at least two years after they were recorded. However, recruitment to settlement tiles was not a good predictor of total coral or acroporid recovery. This study shows that coral recovery can be slower in areas of high turbidity and the rate may be reduced by local pressures, such as dredging. Management should focus on improving or maintaining local water quality to increase the likelihood of coral recovery under climate stress. Further, in turbid environments, juvenile coral density predicts early coral recovery better than recruits on tiles and may be a more cost-effective technique for monitoring recovery potential.

A Flatworm from the Genus Waminoa (Acoela: Convolutidae) Associated with Bleached Corals in Western Australia.

A flatworm isolated from bleached colonies of the coral Coscinaraea marshae at Rottnest Island, Western Australia, is described using a combination of morphological and molecular systematics. This flatworm shares morphological features characteristic of the genus Waminoa (Acoelomorpha: Acoela), including the presence of two algal symbionts, but appears to have genital regions different from those of other described species of Waminoa. The design of new oligonucleotide primers enabled the amplification of partial 18S rDNA of the Rottnest Island acoel specimens, and phylogenetic analysis positioned them within Waminoa, confirming their placement in the genus. Furthermore, Waminoa specimens from Rottnest Island grouped into a sister clade to Waminoa brickneri, indicating that the morphological and genetic differences observed are most likely intraspecific and due to geographic variation. As such, we name these Rottnest Island specimens W. cf. brickneri, but highlight that key differences warrant further exploration before assignment to this species can be confirmed. This is the first acoel flatworm described from Western Australia and contributes to our understanding of the diversity and evolutionary relationship of the Acoela.

Low quantities of marine debris at the northern Ningaloo Marine Park, Western Australia, influenced by visitation and accessibility.

Marine debris (MD) is a serious environmental concern globally. Yet, few studies have reported on MD in sanctuary zones of the Indian Ocean. Consequently, coastal transects were conducted to determine MD quantity, composition and distribution at northern Ningaloo Marine Park, Western Australia. Debris density ranged between 0.004 and 0.02 items m-2 with the greatest density near Exmouth township. Composition was predominantly plastic (61%) with fishing-related items (25.5%) and plastic fragments/remnants (16%) the most numerous overall. Land-based and general sourced MD accounted for 88% of all debris. Debris levels were significantly lower at sites with higher visitation and increased distance from access points. There was no significant difference between sanctuary and non-sanctuary zones. Although not immune to MD, this study suggests its remote location, environmental awareness and management strategies implemented at Ningaloo Marine Park may be key to its low MD levels.

Coral larval recruitment in north-western Australia predicted by regional and local conditions.

Understanding ecological processes that shape contemporary and future communities facilitates knowledge-based environmental management. In marine ecosystems, one of the most important processes is the supply of new recruits into a population. Here, we investigated spatiotemporal variability in coral recruitment at 15 reefs throughout the Dampier Archipelago, north-western Australia between 2015 and 2017 and identified the best environmental predictors for coral recruitment patterns over this period. Large differences in recruitment were observed among years with the average density of recruits increasing by 375% from 0.017 recruits cm-2 in 2015 to 0.059 recruits cm-2 in 2017. Despite differences in recruitment among years, the rank order of coral recruit density among reefs remained similar among years, suggesting that spatial variation in recruitment within the Dampier Archipelago is partly deterministic and predictable. The density of coral recruits was best explained by percent cover of live corals at both local (within 5 m) and meso-scales (within 15 km), water turbidity and an oceanographic model that predicted larval dispersal. The highest density of coral recruits (~0.13 recruits cm-2 or 37 recruits per tile) occurred on reefs within sub-regions (15 km) with greater than 35% coral cover, low to moderate turbidity (KD490 < 0.2) and moderate to high modelled predictions of larval dispersal. Our results demonstrate that broad-scale larval dispersal models, when combined with local metrics of percent hard coral cover and water turbidity, can reliably predict the relative abundance of coral recruits over large geographical areas and thus can identify hotspots of recruit abundance and potential recovery following environmental disturbances; information that is essential for effective management of coral reefs.

Zone specific trends in coral cover, genera and growth-forms in the World-Heritage listed Ningaloo Reef.

On coral reefs, changes in the cover and relative abundance of hard coral taxa often follow disturbance. Although the ecological responses of common coral taxa have been well documented, little is known about the ecological responses of uncommon coral taxa or of coral morphological groups across multiple adjacent reef zones. We used Multivariate Auto-Regressive State-Space modelling to assess the rate and direction of change of hard coral cover across a variety of coral genera, growth forms, and susceptibility to bleaching and physical damage covering multiple reef zones at northern Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia. Trends were assessed between 2007 and 2016, during which multiple episodic disturbances occurred including cyclones and a heatwave. We provide evidence of zone specific trends, not only in total hard coral cover, but also in taxonomic and morphological groups of corals at Ningaloo Reef. Declines in total coral cover on the reef flat corresponded with declines in fast growing corals, particularly Acropora. In contrast, total coral cover on the reef slope and inshore (lagoon) did not undergo significant change, despite divergent trajectories of individual genera. Importantly, we also show that changes in the composition of coral assemblages can be detected using a morphological based approach when changes are not evident using a taxonomic approach. Therefore, we recommend that future assessments of coral reef trends incorporate not just standard metrics such as total coral cover, but also metrics that provide for detailed descriptions of trends in common and uncommon taxa and morphological groups across multiple reef zones.

Declining abundance of coral reef fish in a World-Heritage-listed marine park.

One of the most robust metrics for assessing the effectiveness of protected areas is the temporal trend in the abundance of the species they are designed to protect. We surveyed coral-reef fish and living hard coral in and adjacent to a sanctuary zone (SZ: where all forms of fishing are prohibited) in the World Heritage-listed Ningaloo Marine Park during a 10-year period. There were generally more individuals and greater biomass of many fish taxa (especially emperors and parrotfish) in the SZ than the adjacent recreation zone (RZ: where recreational fishing is allowed) - so log response ratios of abundance were usually positive in each year. However, despite this, there was an overall decrease in both SZ and RZ in absolute abundance of some taxa by up to 22% per year, including taxa that are explicitly targeted (emperors) by fishers and taxa that are neither targeted nor frequently captured (most wrasses and butterflyfish). A concomitant decline in the abundance (measured as percentage cover) of living hard coral of 1-7% per year is a plausible explanation for the declining abundance of butterflyfish, but declines in emperors might be more plausibly due to fishing. Our study highlights that information on temporal trends in absolute abundance is needed to assess whether the goals of protected areas are being met: in our study, patterns in absolute abundance across ten years of surveys revealed trends that simple ratios of abundance did not.

Multi year observations reveal variability in residence of a tropical Demersal Fish, Lethrinus nebulosus: implications for spatial management.

Off the Ningaloo coast of North West Western Australia, Spangled Emperor Lethrinus nebulosus are among the most highly targeted recreational fish species. The Ningaloo Reef Marine Park comprises an area of 4,566 km2 of which 34% is protected from fishing by 18 no-take sanctuary zones ranging in size from 0.08-44.8 km2. To better understand Spangled Emperor movements and the adequacy of sanctuary zones within the Ningaloo Reef Marine Park for this species, 84 Spangled Emperor of a broad spectrum of maturity and sex were tagged using internal acoustic tags in a range of lagoon and reef slope habitats both inside and adjacent to the Mangrove Bay Sanctuary zone. Kernel Utilisation Distribution (KUD) was calculated for 39 resident individuals that were detected for more than 30 days. There was no relationship with fish size and movement or site fidelity. Average home range (95% KUD) for residents was 8.5±0.5 km2 compared to average sanctuary zone size of 30 km2. Calculated home range was stable over time resulting in resident animals tagged inside the sanctuary zone spending ∼80% of time within the sanctuary boundaries. The number of fish remaining within the array of receivers declined steadily over time and after one year more than 60% of tagged fish had moved outside the sanctuary zone and also beyond the 28 km2 array of receivers. Long term monitoring identified the importance of shifting home range and was essential for understanding overall residency within protected areas and also for identifying spawning related movements. This study indicates that despite exhibiting stable and small home ranges over periods of one to two years, more than half the population of spangled emperor move at scales greater than average sanctuary size within the Ningaloo Reef Marine Park.

Dynamic stability of coral reefs on the west Australian coast.

Monitoring changes in coral cover and composition through space and time can provide insights to reef health and assist the focus of management and conservation efforts. We used a meta-analytical approach to assess coral cover data across latitudes 10-35°S along the west Australian coast, including 25 years of data from the Ningaloo region. Current estimates of coral cover ranged between 3 and 44% in coral habitats. Coral communities in the northern regions were dominated by corals from the families Acroporidae and Poritidae, which became less common at higher latitudes. At Ningaloo Reef coral cover has remained relatively stable through time (∼28%), although north-eastern and southern areas have experienced significant declines in overall cover. These declines are likely related to periodic disturbances such as cyclones and thermal anomalies, which were particularly noticeable around 1998/1999 and 2010/2011. Linear mixed effects models (LME) suggest latitude explains 10% of the deviance in coral cover through time at Ningaloo. Acroporidae has decreased in abundance relative to other common families at Ningaloo in the south, which might be related to persistence of more thermally and mechanically tolerant families. We identify regions where quantitative time-series data on coral cover and composition are lacking, particularly in north-western Australia. Standardising routine monitoring methods used by management and research agencies at these, and other locations, would allow a more robust assessment of coral condition and a better basis for conservation of coral reefs.

Relative and combined effects of habitat and fishing on reef fish communities across a limited fishing gradient at Ningaloo.

Habitat degradation and fishing are major drivers of temporal and spatial changes in fish communities. The independent effects of these drivers are well documented, but the relative importance and interaction between fishing and habitat shifts is poorly understood, particularly in complex systems such as coral reefs. To assess the combined and relative effects of fishing and habitat we examined the composition of fish communities on patch reefs across a gradient of high to low structural complexity in fished and unfished areas of the Ningaloo Marine Park, Western Australia. Biomass and species richness of fish were positively correlated with structural complexity of reefs and negatively related to macroalgal cover. Total abundance of fish was also positively related to structural complexity, however this relationship was stronger on fished reefs than those where fishing is prohibited. The interaction between habitat condition and fishing pressure is primarily due to the high abundance of small bodied planktivorous fish on fished reefs. However, the influence of management zones on the abundance and biomass of predators and target species is small, implying spatial differences in fishing pressure are low and unlikely to be driving this interaction. Our results emphasise the importance of habitat in structuring reef fish communities on coral reefs especially when gradients in fishing pressure are low. The influence of fishing effort on this relationship may however become more important as fishing pressure increases.

Unprecedented mass bleaching and loss of coral across 12° of latitude in Western Australia in 2010-11.

BACKGROUND: Globally, coral bleaching has been responsible for a significant decline in both coral cover and diversity over the past two decades. During the summer of 2010-11, anomalous large-scale ocean warming induced unprecedented levels of coral bleaching accompanied by substantial storminess across more than 12° of latitude and 1200 kilometers of coastline in Western Australia (WA). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Extreme La-Niña conditions caused extensive warming of waters and drove considerable storminess and cyclonic activity across WA from October 2010 to May 2011. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature measurements recorded anomalies of up to 5°C above long-term averages. Benthic surveys quantified the extent of bleaching at 10 locations across four regions from tropical to temperate waters. Bleaching was recorded in all locations across regions and ranged between 17% (±5.5) in the temperate Perth region, to 95% (±3.5) in the Exmouth Gulf of the tropical Ningaloo region. Coincident with high levels of bleaching, three cyclones passed in close proximity to study locations around the time of peak temperatures. Follow-up surveys revealed spatial heterogeneity in coral cover change with four of ten locations recording significant loss of coral cover. Relative decreases ranged between 22%-83.9% of total coral cover, with the greatest losses in the Exmouth Gulf. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The anomalous thermal stress of 2010-11 induced mass bleaching of corals along central and southern WA coral reefs. Significant coral bleaching was observed at multiple locations across the tropical-temperate divide spanning more than 1200 km of coastline. Resultant spatially patchy loss of coral cover under widespread and high levels of bleaching and cyclonic activity, suggests a degree of resilience for WA coral communities. However, the spatial extent of bleaching casts some doubt over hypotheses suggesting that future impacts to coral reefs under forecast warming regimes may in part be mitigated by southern thermal refugia.