Near-real-time estimation of fossil fuel CO2 emissions from China based on atmospheric observations on Hateruma and Yonaguni Islands, Japan.

We developed a near-real-time estimation method for temporal changes in fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions from China for 3 months [January, February, March (JFM)] based on atmospheric CO2 and CH4 observations on Hateruma Island (HAT, 24.06° N, 123.81° E) and Yonaguni Island (YON, 24.47° N, 123.01° E), Japan. These two remote islands are in the downwind region of continental East Asia during winter because of the East Asian monsoon. Previous studies have revealed that monthly averages of synoptic-scale variability ratios of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 (ΔCO2/ΔCH4) observed at HAT and YON in JFM are sensitive to changes in continental emissions. From the analysis based on an atmospheric transport model with all components of CO2 and CH4 fluxes, we found that the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratio was linearly related to the FFCO2/CH4 emission ratio in China because calculating the variability ratio canceled out the transport influences. Using the simulated linear relationship, we converted the observed ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios into FFCO2/CH4 emission ratios in China. The change rates of the emission ratios for 2020-2022 were calculated relative to those for the preceding 9-year period (2011-2019), during which relatively stable ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios were observed. These changes in the emission ratios can be read as FFCO2 emission changes under the assumption of no interannual variations in CH4 emissions and biospheric CO2 fluxes for JFM. The resulting average changes in the FFCO2 emissions in January, February, and March 2020 were 17 ± 8%, - 36 ± 7%, and - 12 ± 8%, respectively, (- 10 ± 9% for JFM overall) relative to 2011-2019. These results were generally consistent with previous estimates. The emission changes for January, February, and March were 18 ± 8%, - 2 ± 10%, and 29 ± 12%, respectively, in 2021 (15 ± 10% for JFM overall) and 20 ± 9%, - 3 ± 10%, and - 10 ± 9%, respectively, in 2022 (2 ± 9% for JFM overall). These results suggest that the FFCO2 emissions from China rebounded to the normal level or set a new high record in early 2021 after a reduction during the COVID-19 lockdown. In addition, the estimated reduction in March 2022 might be attributed to the influence of a new wave of COVID-19 infections in Shanghai. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40645-023-00542-6.

Characteristics of atmospheric black carbon and other aerosol particles over the Arctic Ocean in early autumn 2016: Influence from biomass burning as assessed with observed microphysical properties and model simulations.

We conducted ship-based measurements of marine aerosol particles (number concentration, size distribution, black carbon (BC), autofluorescence property, and PM2.5 composition) and trace gases (ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO)) during a cruise of the R/V Mirai (23 August to 4 October 2016) over the Arctic Ocean, Northwest Pacific Ocean, and Bering Sea. Over the Arctic Ocean at latitudes >70°N, the averaged BC mass concentration was 0.7 ± 1.8 ng/m3, confirming the validity of our previously-reported observations (~1 ng/m3) over the same region during September 2014 and September 2015. The observed levels over the Arctic Ocean need to be used as a benchmark when testing the atmospheric transport models over the ocean, while they are substantially lower than those reported at Barrow (Utqiagvik), a nearby ground-based station. We identified events with elevated BC mass concentrations and CO mixing ratios over the Arctic Ocean and Bering Sea as influenced by biomass burnings, with evidences from elevated levoglucosan levels, mixing states of BC particles, and particle size distributions. With WRF-Chem model simulations, we confirmed Siberian Forest fire plumes traveled over thousands of kilometers and produced substantially high BC and CO levels over the Bering Sea. The ΔBC/ΔCO ratios during these periods were estimated as ~1 ng/m3/ppbv, which are lower than those values reported, indicating that the results might have been affected by the wet removal process during transportation and/or by emission in smoldering conditions.

Atmospheric observations suggest methane emissions in north-eastern China growing with natural gas use.

The dramatic increase of natural gas use in China, as a substitute for coal, helps to reduce CO2 emissions and air pollution, but the climate mitigation benefit can be offset by methane leakage into the atmosphere. We estimate methane emissions from 2010 to 2018 in four regions of China using the GOSAT satellite data and in-situ observations with a high-resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) inverse model and analyze interannual changes of emissions by source sectors. We find that estimated methane emission over the north-eastern China region contributes the largest part (0.77 Tg CH4 yr-1) of the methane emission growth rate of China (0.87 Tg CH4 yr-1) and is largely attributable to the growth in natural gas use. The results provide evidence of a detectable impact on atmospheric methane observations by the increasing natural gas use in China and call for methane emission reductions throughout the gas supply chain and promotion of low emission end-use facilities.

Detection of fossil-fuel CO2 plummet in China due to COVID-19 by observation at Hateruma.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused drastic reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but due to its large atmospheric reservoir and long lifetime, no detectable signal has been observed in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Using the variabilities in CO2 (ΔCO2) and methane (ΔCH4) observed at Hateruma Island, Japan during 1997-2020, we show a traceable CO2 emission reduction in China during February-March 2020. The monitoring station at Hateruma Island observes the outflow of Chinese emissions during winter and spring. A systematic increase in the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratio, governed by synoptic wind variability, well corroborated the increase in China's fossil-fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions during 1997-2019. However, the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios showed significant decreases of 29 ± 11 and 16 ± 11 mol mol-1 in February and March 2020, respectively, relative to the 2011-2019 average of 131 ± 11 mol mol-1. By projecting these observed ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios on transport model simulations, we estimated reductions of 32 ± 12% and 19 ± 15% in the FFCO2 emissions in China for February and March 2020, respectively, compared to the expected emissions. Our data are consistent with the abrupt decrease in the economic activity in February, a slight recovery in March, and return to normal in April, which was calculated based on the COVID-19 lockdowns and mobility restriction datasets.

Sources of atmospheric black carbon and related carbonaceous components at Rishiri Island, Japan: The roles of Siberian wildfires and of crop residue burning in China.

A field study was conducted to clarify sources of atmospheric black carbon and related carbonaceous components at Rishiri Island, Japan. We quantified equivalent black carbon (eBC) particle mass and the absorption Ångström exponent (AAE), atmospheric CO and CH4, in addition to levoglucosan in total suspended particles, a typical tracer of biomass burning. Sixteen high eBC events were identified attributable to either anthropogenic sources or biomass burning in Siberia/China. These events were often accompanied by increases of co-emitted gases such as CH4 and CO. Specifically, we observed pollution events with elevated eBC, AAE, levoglucosan, and CH4CO slope in late July 2014, which were attributed to forest fires in Siberia by reference to the FLEXPART model footprint and fire hotspots. In autumn, drastic increases of eBC, AAE, and levoglucosan were observed, accompanied by an eBC-CO slope of >15 ng m-3/ppb, resulting from long-range transport of emissions from extensive burning of crop residue on the Northeast China Plain. Other than the sources of fossil fuel combustion in China and forest fires in Siberia, we report for the first time that pollution events in northern Japan are caused by crop residue burning in China. This study elucidated valuable information that will improve understanding of the effects of biomass burning in East Asia on atmospheric carbonaceous components.

Methane budget of East Asia, 1990-2015: A bottom-up evaluation.

The regional budget of methane (CH4) emissions for East Asia, a crucial region in the global greenhouse gas budget, was quantified for 1990-2015 with a bottom-up method based on inventories and emission model simulations. Anthropogenic emissions associated with fossil fuel extraction, industrial activities, waste management, and agricultural activities were derived from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 4.3.2 and compared with other inventories. Emissions from natural wetlands and CH4 uptake by upland soil oxidation were estimated using the Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT), a biogeochemical model that considers historical land use and climatic conditions. Emissions from biomass burning and termites were calculated using satellite and land-use data combined with empirical emission factors. The resulting average annual estimated CH4 budget for 2000-2012 indicated that East Asia was a net source of 67.3 Tg CH4 yr-1, of which 88.8% was associated with anthropogenic emissions. The uncertainty (±standard deviation) of this estimate, ±14 Tg CH4 yr-1, stemmed from data and model inconsistencies. The increase of the net flux from 60.2 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 1990 to 78.0 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2012 was due mainly to increased emissions by the fossil fuel extraction and livestock sectors. Our results showed that CH4 was a crucial component of the regional greenhouse gas budget. A spatial analysis using 0.25°â€¯× 0.25° grid cells revealed emission hotspots in urban areas, agricultural areas, and wetlands. These hotspots were surrounded by weak sinks in upland areas. The estimated natural and anthropogenic emissions fell within the range of independent estimates, including top-down estimates from atmospheric inversion models. Such a regional accounting is an effective way to elucidate climatic forcings and to develop mitigation policies. Further studies, however, are required to reduce the uncertainties in the budget.

Emissions of methane from offshore oil and gas platforms in Southeast Asia.

Methane is a substantial contributor to climate change. It also contributes to maintaining the background levels of tropospheric ozone. Among a variety of CH4 sources, current estimates suggest that CH4 emissions from oil and gas processes account for approximately 20% of worldwide anthropogenic emissions. Here, we report on observational evidence of CH4 emissions from offshore oil and gas platforms in Southeast Asia, detected by a highly time-resolved spectroscopic monitoring technique deployed onboard cargo ships of opportunity. We often encountered CH4 plumes originating from operational flaring/venting and fugitive emissions off the coast of the Malay Peninsula and Borneo. Using night-light imagery from satellites, we discovered more offshore platforms in this region than are accounted for in the emission inventory. Our results demonstrate that current knowledge regarding CH4 emissions from offshore platforms in Southeast Asia has considerable uncertainty and therefore, emission inventories used for modeling and assessment need to be re-examined.