Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon.

Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km(2) yr(-1) in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative 'Sustainability' scenario in which we envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km(2) yr(-1)) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance.

Climate change could reduce and spatially reconfigure cocoa cultivation in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050.

Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa's geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the "biomod2" library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring.

On a new Melanosuchus species (Alligatoroidea: Caimaninae) from Solimões Formation (Eocene-Pliocene), Northern Brazil, and evolution of Caimaninae.

The Solimões Formation (Eocene-Pliocene) is a well-known geological unit due to the great diversity of crocodylian species. Here we describe a new species of Melanosuchus, M. latrubessei sp. nov., from the Talismã locality, state of Amazonas, from the Upper Miocene of the Solimões Formation (Solimões Basin, Brazil). A new phylogenetic inference focused on Caimaninae is provided and the different evolutionary scenarios involving this new species are discussed. In addition, quantitative morphology studies are carried out and comments regarding the paleoecology aspects of this new species are made. M. latrubessei represents a medium-sized generalist predator, being proportional to the medium-sized M. niger. This new species inhabited the drainages of the Solimões Formation and was ecologically related to other taxa of crocodylians during the proto-Amazon Miocene. The evolutionary advantages of Melanosuchus genus are discussed to better understand the biogeographical occurrence of M. niger in South America, a species which survives to this day in contrast to several other species that became extinct during the Miocene-Pliocene periods. The extinction of the Miocene-Pliocene crocodylian taxa of the Solimões Formation, including Melanosuchus latrubessei, seems to be directly related with the uplift of the northern portions of the Andes, which generated significantly changes in drainages and Amazon paleoenvironments.

Measuring resilience and assessing vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change in South America.

Climate change has been identified as the primary threat to the integrity and functioning of ecosystems in this century, although there is still much uncertainty about its effects and the degree of vulnerability for different ecosystems to this threat. Here we propose a new methodological approach capable of measuring and mapping the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems at large scales based on their climatic niche. To do this, we used high spatial resolution remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling techniques to calculate and spatialize the resilience of three stable states of ecosystems in South America: forest, savanna, and grassland. Also, we evaluated the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate stress, the likelihood of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions, and their respective adaptive capacities in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that forests, the most productive and biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the earth, are more vulnerable to climate change than savannas or grasslands. Forests showed less resistance to climate stress and a higher chance of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions. If this scenario occurs, the forest ecosystems would have less chance of adaptation compared to savannas or grasslands because of their narrow climate niche. Therefore, we can conclude that a possible consolidation of non-analogous climatic conditions would lead to a loss of resilience in the forest ecosystem, significantly increasing the chance of a critical transition event to another stable state with a lower density of vegetation cover (e.g., savanna or grassland).

Water Sustainability at the River Grande Basin, Brazil: An Approach Based on the Barometer of Sustainability.

Water resources are fundamental for the social and economic development of a country and sustainability is the best approach to treat water-related problems. Therefore, sustainability studies of water resources are deemed urgent. Sustainability analysis methods should enable space-temporal monitoring, decision-making, and development of policies necessary for water governance. Furthermore, sustainability analysis methods should also integrate environment and socioeconomic variables into a single system. In this context, this study aimed to assess the water sustainability conditions of the River Grande Basin (BHRG), Brazil, before the implementation of the Integrated Water Resources Plan (IWRP), using the Barometer of Sustainability tool (BS). The River Grande basin was in an "almost unsustainable" condition and under high environmental stress. A significant imbalance between environmental and human well-being in the system was also observed. To achieve an acceptable sustainability condition, it is thus necessary to improve the environmental quality of the area. Among the priority thematic area, native vegetation recovery was the most urgent. Overall, the sustainability study based on the BS not only facilitates comprehension regarding environment and human interrelationships, but also provide references for policy formulations and water management.

Neogene sharks and rays from the Brazilian 'Blue Amazon'.

The lower Miocene Pirabas Formation in the North of Brazil was deposited under influence of the proto-Amazon River and is characterized by large changes in the ecological niches from the early Miocene onwards. To evaluate these ecological changes, the elasmobranch fauna of the fully marine, carbonate-rich beds was investigated. A diverse fauna with 24 taxa of sharks and rays was identified with the dominant groups being carcharhiniforms and myliobatiforms. This faunal composition is similar to other early Miocene assemblages from the proto-Carribbean bioprovince. However, the Pirabas Formation has unique features compared to the other localities; being the only Neogene fossil fish assemblage described from the Atlantic coast of Tropical Americas. Phosphate oxygen isotope composition of elasmobranch teeth served as proxies for paleotemperatures and paleoecology. The data are compatible with a predominantly tropical marine setting with recognized inshore and offshore habitats with some probable depth preferences (e.g., Aetomylaeus groups). Paleohabitat of taxa particularly found in the Neogene of the Americas (†Carcharhinus ackermannii, †Aetomylaeus cubensis) are estimated to have been principally coastal and shallow waters. Larger variation among the few analyzed modern selachians reflects a larger range for the isotopic composition of recent seawater compared to the early Miocene. This probably links to an increased influence of the Amazon River in the coastal regions during the Holocene.

Territórios e alianças políticas do pós-ambientalismo / Territories and political alliances of post-environmentalism

O objetivo deste artigo é contribuir com o debate acerca do desmatamento no contexto da evolução das políticas de gestão fundiária e territorial na Amazônia, destacando seu papel relevante para o reconhecimento de direitos políticos de categorias sociais minoritárias. A associação do desmatamento na Amazônia sempre esteve correlacionada a problemas sociais e envolve diferentes agentes e fatores causadores conforme a área de abrangência e o momento de sua realização. Procuram-se evidenciar alguns dos principais fatores institucionais que contribuem para pôr em xeque as conquistas do modelo socioambiental por meio de um estudo de caso no assentamento rural categoria Projeto Agroextrativista Praialta-Piranheira, Pará. Essa análise permite concluir que a falta de coerência institucional representa um aspecto estrutural cujo desconhecimento incapacita a compreensão das dinâmicas territoriais da Amazônia.

The objective of this paper is to analyze the driving forces of deforestation in the context of the evolution of land use and land management policies, emphasizing their role in the recognition of political rights of minority social groups. The underlying causes of deforestation in the Amazon have always been correlated with social problems and the use of labor in conditions similar to slavery. Such dynamics involves different agents and causative factors embedded in a complex web of historical factors, political forces and economic cycles. This paper emphasizes some of the leading institutional factors that contribute to understanding the achievements of the social-environmental model by means of a case study in the rural settlement "Projeto Agroextrativista Praialta-Piranheira", in Pará, Brazil. This analysis allowed us to conclude that the lack of institutional coherence is a structural aspect that hinders a better context-driven understanding of the territorial dynamics of Amazonia.

Estratégias para evitar a perda de biodiversidade na Amazônia / Strategies to prevent the loss of biodiversity in Amazonia

A SOCIEDADE brasileira recebe, anualmente, a estimativa de perda de floresta na Amazônia por meio da taxa de desflorestamento divulgada pelo Inpe, a qual, em 2004, foi de aproximadamente 26.130 km² . O que não se conhece é o quanto de recursos naturais se perde a cada quilômetro quadrado de floresta destruída. Neste trabalho, apresentamos números concretos desta perda, baseados em estudos recentes sobre a densidade de plantas e de alguns grupos de animais na Amazônia. Com base nisso, defendemos a idéia de que não há necessidade de se ampliar o desflorestamento na região e que, portanto, qualquer licença de desmatamento deveria ser proibida na Amazônia. Sugerimos também que o sistema de ciência e tecnologia regional deve ser descentralizado através do desenvolvimento de programas de pesquisa integrados, focalizados no desenho e no teste de modelos de territórios sustentáveis para os diferentes setores da região.