RESUMEN
Species are expected to migrate to higher latitudes as warming intensifies due to anthropogenic climate change since physiological mechanisms have been adapted to maximize fitness under specific temperatures. However, literature suggests that upwellings could act as thermal refugia under climate warming protecting marine ecosystem diversity. This research aimed to predict the effects of climate warming on commercial and non-commercial fish species reported in official Mexican documents (>200 species) based on their thermal niche to observe if upwellings can act as potential thermal refugia. Present (2000-2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (6.0 and 8.5) scenarios (2040-2050 and 2090-2100) have been considered for this work. Current and future suitability patterns, species distribution, richness, and turnover were calculated using the minimum volume ellipsoids as algorithm. The results in this study highlight that beyond migration to higher latitudes, upwelling regions could protect marine fishes, although the mechanism differed between the innate characteristics of upwellings. Most modeled species (primarily tropical fishes) found refuge in the tropical upwelling in Northern Yucatan. However, the highest warming scenario overwhelmed this region. In contrast, the Baja California region lies within the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. While the area experiences an increase in suitability, the northern regions have a higher upwelling intensity acting as environmental barriers for many tropical species. Conversely, in the southern regions where upwelling is weaker, species tend to congregate and persist even during elevated warming, according to the turnover analysis. These findings suggest that tropicalization in higher latitudes may not be as straightforward as previously assumed. Nevertheless, climate change affects numerous ecosystem features, such as trophic relationships, phenology, and other environmental variables not considered here. In addition, uncertainty still exists about the assumption of increasing intensity of upwelling systems.
Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Peces , Animales , Peces/fisiología , Refugio de Fauna , México , Ecosistema , Calentamiento Global , TemperaturaRESUMEN
Natural mortality (M) is defined as the rate of loss that occurs in a fish stock due to natural (non-fishing) causes and can be influenced by density-dependent or density-independent factors. Different methods have been used to estimate M, one of these is the gnomonic approach. This method estimates M rates by dividing the life cycle of a species into subunits of time that increase as a constant proportion of the time elapsed from birth up to the initiation of each subdivision. In this study, an improved gnomonic approach is proposed to estimate natural mortality throughout different life stages in marine stocks using the gnomonicM package written in R software. This package was built to require data about (i) the number of gnomonic intervals, (ii) egg stage duration, (iii) longevity, and (iv) fecundity. With this information, it is possible to estimate the duration and natural mortality (Mi) of each gnomonic interval. The gnomonicM package uses a deterministic or stochastic approach, the latter of which assesses variability in M by assuming that the mean lifetime fecundity (MLF) is the main source of uncertainty. Additionally, the gnomonicM package allows the incorporation of auxiliary information related to the observed temporal durations of specific gnomonic intervals, which is useful for calibrating estimates of M vectors. The gnomonicM package, tested via deterministic and stochastic functions, was supported by the reproducibility and verification of the results obtained from different reports, thus guaranteeing its functionality, applicability, and performance in estimating M for different ontogenetic developmental stages. Based on the biological information of Pacific chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus), we presented a new case study to provide a comprehensive guide to data collection to obtain results and explain the details of the application of the gnomonicM package and avoid its misuse. This package could provide an alternative approach for estimating M and provide basic input data for ecological models, allowing the option of using estimates of variable natural mortality across different ages, mainly for life stages affected by fishing. The inputs for the gnomonicM packages are composed of numbers, vectors, or characters depending on whether the deterministic or stochastic approach is used, making the package quick, flexible, and easy to use; this allows users to focus on obtaining and interpreting results rather than the calculation process.
RESUMEN
Se estimaron valores de la talla de madurez gonadal (L50) de la caballa (Scomber japonicus peruanus) para los años 1994 - 2017 en el litoral peruano. El análisis se realizó para el periodo noviembre - marzo donde ocurre la mayor actividad reproductiva. La proporción de hembras maduras en relación a la talla se ajustó mediante un modelo logístico binomial, para ello se utilizaron modelos lineales generalizados con efectos mixtos (MLGM) que asumieron efectos aleatorios asociados a los periodos. El ajuste con el MLGM, mediante sus efectos fjos estimó una L50 de 24.8 cm de longitud a la horquilla (LH) (24.69 cm - 24.9 cm), mientras que con cambios entre periodos, mediante sus efectos aleatorios, los valores oscilaron entre 20.4 cm y 27.0 cm de LH en promedio. Se observó que un aumento en la temperatura causó la disminución de la L50 en los periodos 1997 - 1999 y 2015 - 2016, los cuales coinciden con la presencia de eventos El Niño. Una correlación positiva fue encontrada entre las L50 y la biomasa desovante, estos cambios en las L50 podrían indicar un efecto de denso-dependencia. No se mostró una tendencia en la serie de L50, por tanto no habría un efecto de la presión de pesca, traducida como la tasa instantánea de mortalidad por pesca (F) sobre la L50. Sin embargo, creemos que estas disminuciones de la L50, en relación a una baja densidad poblacional y principalmente a un incremento en la F deben darse como un efecto a largo plazo y no en eventos puntuales como se reflejaron en nuestros resultados.
The values of size-at-gonad maturity (L50) of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus peruanus) were estimated for the years 1994 - 2017 in the Peruvian littoral. The analysis was performed for the period November - March where the highest reproductive activity occurs. The proportion of mature females was ftted using a logistic binary model, through generalized linear mixed models (MLGM), which assumes random effects associated with the periods. The GLMM, with fixed effects estimated a L50 of 24.8 cm of fork length (FL) (24.69 cm - 24.9 cm), while with changes between periods, with random effects, L50 ranged between 20.4 cm and 27.0 cm FL. It was observed that an increase in temperature caused the decrease of the L50 in the years 1997 - 1999 and 2015 - 2016, which coincides with El Niño events. A positive correlation was found between the L50 and spawning biomass, so changes in L50 may be a density-dependent effect. There was no trend in the L50 series, so there would be no effect of the fishing mortality (F) on the L50. However, we think that the decrease in the L50 in relation to a low population density and mainly an increase in F should be given as a long-term effect and not in isolated events as our results showed.
RESUMEN
En este trabajo se presenta la estimación del descarte por exceso de captura en la pesquería industrial de cerco del stock Norte-Centro de anchoveta peruana. Se define el descarte por exceso de captura, como la porción de captura que se arroja al mar cuando se ha capturado más de lo que la capacidad de bodega de la embarcación puede almacenar. El análisis de estimación para el periodo 2005 - 2014, se realizó a partir del "Programa de observadores a bordo de la flota de cerco" que ejecuta el Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), en donde 5 837 viajes, que representan el 1.6% de los viajes totales, fueron muestreados. Las metodologías utilizadas en la estimación fueron: Modelo Lineal Generalizado (GLM) y el Modelo Delta. Las estimaciones por el Modelo Delta y el GLM fueron diferentes en magnitudes pero similares en tendencias, sin embargo la evaluación del funcionamiento del Modelo Delta, indica que este modelo se ajusta mejor a los datos. El Modelo Delta estimó que la pesquería descarta por exceso de captura entre 2 954 y 199 164 toneladas, con un promedio de 121 312 toneladas para el periodo de estudio, el cual representó una tasa del 2.6% en relación a los desembarques. Se sugiere la incorporación de variables espaciales (p. ej. distancia a la costa, latitud, longitud), físicas (TSM) y del comportamiento del cardumen (p.e. agregación), para mejorar el análisis y comprender mejor el comportamiento de este tipo de descarte.
This paper presents estimates of the discard excess catch in the industrial purse seine fisheries of the North-Center stock of the Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens). Discard excess catch is defined as the portion of the catch that is thrown into the sea when has captured more than the hold capacity can store. The analysis is based on the "On-board observer of the purse seine vessels program" led by the Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), and in the period 2005 - 2014, 5837 trips were sampled, corresponding to 1.6% of the total trips. The methodologies used in the discard excess catch estimation were: Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Delta Model. The estimations showed difference in magnitudes but similar trends, although the delta model appears to be a better alternative procedure for estimating the discard excess catch. The Delta Model estimated the purse seine fisheries discarded a range from 2954 to 199 164 tons, an average estimated 121 312 tons, which represent 2.6% of the landings in the period 2005 - 2014. Spatial variables (e.g. distance from the shore, latitude, longitude), physical (SST), and school behavior (e.g. fish aggregation) should be included to improve the analysis and a better understanding of the discard excess catch behavior.