Skin cancer risks avoided by the Montreal Protocol--worldwide modeling integrating coupled climate-chemistry models with a risk model for UV.

The assessment model for ultraviolet radiation and risk "AMOUR" is applied to output from two chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Results from the UK Chemistry and Aerosols CCM are used to quantify the worldwide skin cancer risk avoided by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments: by the year 2030, two million cases of skin cancer have been prevented yearly, which is 14% fewer skin cancer cases per year. In the "World Avoided," excess skin cancer incidence will continue to grow dramatically after 2030. Results from the CCM E39C-A are used to estimate skin cancer risk that had already been inevitably committed once ozone depletion was recognized: excess incidence will peak mid 21st century and then recover or even super-recover at the end of the century. When compared with a "No Depletion" scenario, with ozone undepleted and cloud characteristics as in the 1960s throughout, excess incidence (extra yearly cases skin cancer per million people) of the "Full Compliance with Montreal Protocol" scenario is in the ranges: New Zealand: 100-150, Congo: -10-0, Patagonia: 20-50, Western Europe: 30-40, China: 90-120, South-West USA: 80-110, Mediterranean: 90-100 and North-East Australia: 170-200. This is up to 4% of total local incidence in the Full Compliance scenario in the peak year.

Variability of cloud-free ultraviolet dose rates on global scale due to modeled scenarios of future ozone recovery.

Simulations of the total ozone content and vertical ozone and temperature profiles during the period 1980-2080 from three chemistry climate models (CCMs) were used and the future variability of five UV dose rate types in global scale was simulated. For each CCM, radiative transfer calculations for cloud-free skies and constant values of aerosol optical properties and surface reflectivity were performed and the percentage difference, relative to the mean over the period 1996-2005, was calculated. The potential biological consequences of ozone recovery are quantified due to the different influence of ozone-absorbing wavelengths on the selected UV action spectra: average percentage differences between a few and 60% are revealed during the 2070s, depending on the latitude zone and the season. Although the research into the prediction of UV radiation levels is ongoing, due to the possible future changes in cloudiness, aerosols or surface reflectivity, the long-term changes in ozone, as projected by the CCMs in a similar way, will affect strongly some of the selected UV dose rates in the future.