Decline in climate resilience of European wheat.

Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers' fields in most European countries after 2002-2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity "deserts" were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation.

Climate change is predicted to alter the current pest status of Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis in the United Kingdom.

The potato cyst nematodes Globodera pallida and G. rostochiensis are economically important plant pathogens causing losses to UK potato harvests estimated at £50 m/ year. Implications of climate change on their future pest status have not been fully considered. Here, we report growth of female G. pallida and G. rostochiensis over the range 15 to 25°C. Females per plant and their fecundity declined progressively with temperatures above 17.5°C for G. pallida, whilst females per plant were optimal between 17.5 and 22.5°C for G. rostochiensis. Relative reproductive success with temperature was confirmed on two potato cultivars infected with either species at 15, 22.5 and 25°C. The reduced reproductive success of G. pallida at 22.5°C relative to 15°C was also recorded for a further seven host cultivars studied. The differences in optimal temperatures for reproductive success may relate to known differences in the altitude of their regions of origin in the Andes. Exposure of G. pallida to a diurnal temperature stress for one week during female growth significantly suppressed subsequent growth for one week at 17.5°C but had no effect on G. rostochiensis. However, after two weeks of recovery, female size was not significantly different from that for the control treatment. Future soil temperatures were simulated for medium- and high-emission scenarios and combined with nematode growth data to project future implications of climate change for the two species. Increased soil temperatures associated with climate change may reduce the pest status of G. pallida but benefit G. rostochiensis especially in the southern United Kingdom. We conclude that plant breeders may be able to exploit the thermal limits of G. pallida by developing potato cultivars able to grow under future warm summer conditions. Existing widely deployed resistance to G. rostochiensis is an important characteristic to retain for new potato cultivars.

Global wood anatomical perspective on the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) in the mid-6th century CE.

Linked to major volcanic eruptions around 536 and 540 CE, the onset of the Late Antique Little Ice Age has been described as the coldest period of the past two millennia. The exact timing and spatial extent of this exceptional cold phase are, however, still under debate because of the limited resolution and geographical distribution of the available proxy archives. Here, we use 106 wood anatomical thin sections from 23 forest sites and 20 tree species in both hemispheres to search for cell-level fingerprints of ephemeral summer cooling between 530 and 550 CE. After cross-dating and double-staining, we identified 89 Blue Rings (lack of cell wall lignification), nine Frost Rings (cell deformation and collapse), and 93 Light Rings (reduced cell wall thickening) in the Northern Hemisphere. Our network reveals evidence for the strongest temperature depression between mid-July and early-August 536 CE across North America and Eurasia, whereas more localised cold spells occurred in the summers of 532, 540-43, and 548 CE. The lack of anatomical signatures in the austral trees suggests limited incursion of stratospheric volcanic aerosol into the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics, that any forcing was mitigated by atmosphere-ocean dynamical responses and/or concentrated outside the growing season, or a combination of factors. Our findings demonstrate the advantage of wood anatomical investigations over traditional dendrochronological measurements, provide a benchmark for Earth system models, support cross-disciplinary studies into the entanglements of climate and history, and question the relevance of global climate averages.

Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change.

THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely - so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.