Epigenetic scars of CD8+ T cell exhaustion persist after cure of chronic infection in humans.

T cell exhaustion is an induced state of dysfunction that arises in response to chronic infection and cancer. Exhausted CD8+ T cells acquire a distinct epigenetic state, but it is not known whether that chromatin landscape is fixed or plastic following the resolution of a chronic infection. Here we show that the epigenetic state of exhaustion is largely irreversible, even after curative therapy. Analysis of chromatin accessibility in HCV- and HIV-specific responses identifies a core epigenetic program of exhaustion in CD8+ T cells, which undergoes only limited remodeling before and after resolution of infection. Moreover, canonical features of exhaustion, including super-enhancers near the genes TOX and HIF1A, remain 'epigenetically scarred.' T cell exhaustion is therefore a conserved epigenetic state that becomes fixed and persists independent of chronic antigen stimulation and inflammation. Therapeutic efforts to reverse T cell exhaustion may require new approaches that increase the epigenetic plasticity of exhausted T cells.

Differentiation of exhausted CD8+ T cells after termination of chronic antigen stimulation stops short of achieving functional T cell memory.

T cell exhaustion is associated with failure to clear chronic infections and malignant cells. Defining the molecular mechanisms of T cell exhaustion and reinvigoration is essential to improving immunotherapeutic modalities. Here we confirmed pervasive phenotypic, functional and transcriptional differences between memory and exhausted antigen-specific CD8+ T cells in human hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection before and after treatment. After viral cure, phenotypic changes in clonally stable exhausted T cell populations suggested differentiation toward a memory-like profile. However, functionally, the cells showed little improvement, and critical transcriptional regulators remained in the exhaustion state. Notably, T cells from chronic HCV infection that were exposed to antigen for less time because of viral escape mutations were functionally and transcriptionally more similar to memory T cells from spontaneously resolved HCV infection. Thus, the duration of T cell stimulation impacts exhaustion recovery, with antigen removal after long-term exhaustion being insufficient for the development of functional T cell memory.

Early Transcriptional Divergence Marks Virus-Specific Primary Human CD8+ T Cells in Chronic versus Acute Infection.

Distinct molecular pathways govern the differentiation of CD8+ effector T cells into memory or exhausted T cells during acute and chronic viral infection, but these are not well studied in humans. Here, we employed an integrative systems immunology approach to identify transcriptional commonalities and differences between virus-specific CD8+ T cells from patients with persistent and spontaneously resolving hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection during the acute phase. We observed dysregulation of metabolic processes during early persistent infection that was linked to changes in expression of genes related to nucleosomal regulation of transcription, T cell differentiation, and the inflammatory response and correlated with subject age, sex, and the presence of HCV-specific CD4+ T cell populations. These early changes in HCV-specific CD8+ T cell transcription preceded the overt establishment of T cell exhaustion, making this signature a prime target in the search for the regulatory origins of T cell dysfunction in chronic viral infection.

Emergence of Novel Norovirus GII.4 Variant.

We detected a novel GII.4 variant with an amino acid insertion at the start of epitope A in viral protein 1 of noroviruses from the United States, Gabon, South Africa, and the United Kingdom collected during 2017-2022. Early identification of GII.4 variants is crucial for assessing pandemic potential and informing vaccine development.

Validation of dried blood spots for capturing hepatitis C virus diversity for genomic surveillance.

Dried blood spots (DBS) have emerged as a promising alternative to traditional venous blood for hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing. However, their capacity to accurately reflect the genetic diversity of HCV remains poorly understood. We employed deep sequencing and advanced phylogenetic analyses on paired plasma and DBS samples from two common subtypes to evaluate the suitability of DBS for genomic surveillance. Results demonstrated that DBS captured equivalent viral diversity compared to plasma with no phylogenetic discordance observed. The ability of DBS to accurately reflect the profile of viral genetic diversity suggests it may be a promising avenue for future surveillance efforts to curb HCV outbreaks.

Identification of Genetically Related HCV Infections Among Self-Described Injecting Partnerships.

BACKGROUND: The current opioid epidemic across the United States has fueled a surge in the rate of new hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections among young persons who inject drugs (PWIDs). Paramount to interrupting transmission is targeting these high-risk populations and understanding the underlying network structures facilitating transmission within these communities. METHODS: Deep sequencing data were obtained for 52 participants from 32 injecting partnerships enrolled in the U-Find-Out (UFO) Partner Study, which is a prospective study of self-described injecting dyad partnerships from a large community-based study of HCV infection in young adult PWIDs from San Francisco. Phylogenetically linked transmission events were identified using traditional genetic-distance measures and viral deep sequence phylogenies reconstructed to determine the statistical support of inferences and the direction of transmission within partnerships. RESULTS: Using deep sequencing data, we found that 12 of 32 partnerships were genetically similar and clustered. Three additional phylogenetic clusters were found describing novel putative transmission links outside of the injecting relationship. Transmission direction was inferred correctly for 5 partnerships with the incorrect transmission direction inferred in more than 50% of cases. Notably, we observed that phylogenetic linkage was most often associated with a lower number of network partners and involvement in a sexual relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Deep sequencing of HCV among self-described injecting partnerships demonstrates that the majority of transmission events originate from outside of the injecting partnership. Furthermore, these findings caution that phylogenetic methods may be unable to routinely infer the direction of transmission among PWIDs especially when transmission events occur in rapid succession within high-risk networks.

Hepatitis C Virus Transmission Clusters in Public Health and Correctional Settings, Wisconsin, USA, 2016-20171.

Ending the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic requires stopping transmission among networks of persons who inject drugs. Identifying transmission networks by using genomic epidemiology may inform community responses that can quickly interrupt transmission. We retrospectively identified HCV RNA-positive specimens corresponding to 459 persons in settings that use the state laboratory, including correctional facilities and syringe services programs, in Wisconsin, USA, during 2016-2017. We conducted next-generation sequencing of HCV and analyzed it for phylogenetic linkage by using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Global Hepatitis Outbreak Surveillance Technology platform. Analysis showed that 126 persons were linked across 42 clusters. Phylogenetic clustering was higher in rural communities and associated with female sex and younger age among rural residents. These data highlight that HCV transmission could be reduced by expanding molecular-based surveillance strategies to rural communities affected by the opioid crisis.

Prevalence of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance among treatment-naive individuals in China, 2000-2016.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with transmitted drug-resistance (TDR) limits the therapeutic options available for treatment-naive HIV patients. This study aimed to further our understanding of the prevalence and transmission characteristics of HIV with TDR for the application of first-line antiretroviral regimens. A total of 6578 HIV-1 protease/reverse-transcriptase sequences from treatment-naive individuals in China between 2000 and 2016 were obtained from the Los Alamos HIV Sequence Database and were analyzed for TDR. Transmission networks were constructed to determine genetic relationships. The spreading routes of large TDR clusters were identified using a Bayesian phylogeographic framework. TDR mutations were detected in 274 (4.51%) individuals, with 1.40% associated with resistance to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, 1.52% to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors, and 1.87% to protease inhibitors. The most frequent mutation was M46L (58, 0.89%), followed by K103N (36, 0.55%), M46I (36, 0.55%), and M184V (26, 0.40%). The prevalence of total TDR initially decreased between 2000 and 2010 (OR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.73-0.95) and then increased thereafter (OR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.13-1.97). The proportion of sequences in a cluster (clustering rate) among HIV isolates with TDR sequences was lower than that of sequences without TDR (40.5% vs. 48.8%, P = 0.023) and increased from 27.3% in 2005-2006 to 63.6% in 2015-2016 (P < 0.001). While most TDR mutations were associated with reduced relative transmission fitness, mutation M46I was associated with higher relative transmission fitness than the wild-type strain. This study identified a low-level prevalence of TDR HIV in China during the last two decades. However, the increasing TDR HIV rate since 2010, the persistent circulation of drug resistance mutations, and the expansion of self-sustaining drug resistance reservoirs may compromise the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy programs.

Metagenomic Sequencing of HIV-1 in the Blood and Female Genital Tract Reveals Little Quasispecies Diversity during Acute Infection.

Heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is associated with a significant bottleneck in the viral quasispecies population, yet the timing of that bottleneck is poorly understood. We characterized HIV-1 diversity in the blood and female genital tract (FGT) within 2 weeks after detection of infection in three women enrolled in a unique prospective cohort in South Africa. We assembled full-length HIV-1 genomes from matched cervicovaginal lavage (CVL) samples and plasma. Deep sequencing allowed us to identify intrahost single-nucleotide variants (iSNVs) and to characterize within-sample HIV-1 diversity. Our results demonstrated very little HIV-1 diversity in the FGT and plasma by the time viremia was detectable. Within each subject, the consensus HIV-1 sequences were identical in plasma and CVL fluid. No iSNV was present at >6% frequency. One subject had 77 low-frequency iSNVs across both CVL fluid and plasma, another subject had 14 iSNVs in only CVL fluid from the earliest time point, and the third subject had no iSNVs in CVL fluid or plasma. Overall, the small amount of diversity that we detected was greater in the FGT than in plasma and declined over the first 2 weeks after viremia was detectable, compatible with a very early HIV-1 transmission bottleneck. To our knowledge, our study represents the earliest genomic analysis of HIV-1 in the FGT after transmission. Further, the use of metagenomic sequencing allowed us to characterize other organisms in the FGT, including commensal bacteria and sexually transmitted infections, highlighting the utility of the method to sequence both HIV-1 and its metagenomic environment.IMPORTANCE Due to error-prone replication, HIV-1 generates a diverse population of viruses within a chronically infected individual. When HIV-1 is transmitted to a new individual, one or a few viruses establish the new infection, leading to a genetic bottleneck in the virus population. Understanding the timing and nature of this bottleneck may provide insight into HIV-1 vaccine design and other preventative strategies. We examined the HIV-1 population in three women enrolled in a unique prospective cohort in South Africa who were followed closely during the earliest stages of HIV-1 infection. We found very little HIV-1 diversity in the blood and female genital tract during the first 2 weeks after virus was detected in the bloodstream. These results are compatible with a very early HIV-1 population bottleneck, suggesting the need to study the HIV-1 population in the female genital tract before virus is detectable in the bloodstream.

Mamu-B*17+ Rhesus Macaques Vaccinated with env, vif, and nef Manifest Early Control of SIVmac239 Replication.

Certain major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) alleles are associated with spontaneous control of viral replication in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people and simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-infected rhesus macaques (RMs). These cases of "elite" control of HIV/SIV replication are often immune-mediated, thereby providing a framework for studying anti-lentiviral immunity. In this study, we examined how vaccination impacts SIV replication in RMs expressing the MHC-I allele Mamu-B*17 Approximately 21% of Mamu-B*17+ and 50% of Mamu-B*08+ RMs control chronic-phase viremia after SIVmac239 infection. Because CD8+ T cells targeting Mamu-B*08-restricted SIV epitopes have been implicated in virologic suppression in Mamu-B*08+ RMs, we investigated whether this might also be true for Mamu-B*17+ RMs. Two groups of Mamu-B*17+ RMs were vaccinated with genes encoding Mamu-B*17-restricted epitopes in Vif and Nef. These genes were delivered by themselves (group 1) or together with env (group 2). Group 3 included MHC-I-matched RMs and served as the control group. Surprisingly, the group 1 vaccine regimen had little effect on viral replication compared to group 3, suggesting that unlike Mamu-B*08+ RMs, preexisting SIV-specific CD8+ T cells alone do not facilitate long-term virologic suppression in Mamu-B*17+ RMs. Remarkably, however, 5/8 group 2 vaccinees controlled viremia to <15 viral RNA copies/ml soon after infection. No serological neutralizing activity against SIVmac239 was detected in group 2, although vaccine-elicited gp140-binding antibodies correlated inversely with nadir viral loads. Collectively, these data shed new light on the unique mechanism of elite control in Mamu-B*17+ RMs and implicate vaccine-induced, nonneutralizing anti-Env antibodies in the containment of immunodeficiency virus infection.IMPORTANCE A better understanding of the immune correlates of protection against HIV might facilitate the development of a prophylactic vaccine. Therefore, we investigated simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) infection outcomes in rhesus macaques expressing the major histocompatibility complex class I allele Mamu-B*17 Approximately 21% of Mamu-B*17+ macaques spontaneously controlled chronic phase viremia after SIV infection, an effect that may involve CD8+ T cells targeting Mamu-B*17-restricted SIV epitopes. We vaccinated Mamu-B*17+ macaques with genes encoding immunodominant epitopes in Vif and Nef alone (group 1) or together with env (group 2). Although neither vaccine regimen prevented SIV infection, 5/8 group 2 vaccinees controlled viremia to below detection limits shortly after infection. This outcome, which was not observed in group 1, was associated with vaccine-induced, nonneutralizing Env-binding antibodies. Together, these findings suggest a limited contribution of Vif- and Nef-specific CD8+ T cells for virologic control in Mamu-B*17+ macaques and implicate anti-Env antibodies in containment of SIV infection.

Differences in the Selection Bottleneck between Modes of Sexual Transmission Influence the Genetic Composition of the HIV-1 Founder Virus.

Due to the stringent population bottleneck that occurs during sexual HIV-1 transmission, systemic infection is typically established by a limited number of founder viruses. Elucidation of the precise forces influencing the selection of founder viruses may reveal key vulnerabilities that could aid in the development of a vaccine or other clinical interventions. Here, we utilize deep sequencing data and apply a genetic distance-based method to investigate whether the mode of sexual transmission shapes the nascent founder viral genome. Analysis of 74 acute and early HIV-1 infected subjects revealed that 83% of men who have sex with men (MSM) exhibit a single founder virus, levels similar to those previously observed in heterosexual (HSX) transmission. In a metadata analysis of a total of 354 subjects, including HSX, MSM and injecting drug users (IDU), we also observed no significant differences in the frequency of single founder virus infections between HSX and MSM transmissions. However, comparison of HIV-1 envelope sequences revealed that HSX founder viruses exhibited a greater number of codon sites under positive selection, as well as stronger transmission indices possibly reflective of higher fitness variants. Moreover, specific genetic "signatures" within MSM and HSX founder viruses were identified, with single polymorphisms within gp41 enriched among HSX viruses while more complex patterns, including clustered polymorphisms surrounding the CD4 binding site, were enriched in MSM viruses. While our findings do not support an influence of the mode of sexual transmission on the number of founder viruses, they do demonstrate that there are marked differences in the selection bottleneck that can significantly shape their genetic composition. This study illustrates the complex dynamics of the transmission bottleneck and reveals that distinct genetic bottleneck processes exist dependent upon the mode of HIV-1 transmission.

Vaccine-induced CD8+ T cells control AIDS virus replication.

Developing a vaccine for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) may be aided by a complete understanding of those rare cases in which some HIV-infected individuals control replication of the virus. Most of these elite controllers express the histocompatibility alleles HLA-B*57 or HLA-B*27 (ref. 3). These alleles remain by far the most robust associations with low concentrations of plasma virus, yet the mechanism of control in these individuals is not entirely clear. Here we vaccinate Indian rhesus macaques that express Mamu-B*08, an animal model for HLA-B*27-mediated elite control, with three Mamu-B*08-restricted CD8(+) T-cell epitopes, and demonstrate that these vaccinated animals control replication of the highly pathogenic clonal simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) mac239 virus. High frequencies of CD8(+) T cells against these Vif and Nef epitopes in the blood, lymph nodes and colon were associated with viral control. Moreover, the frequency of the CD8(+) T-cell response against the Nef RL10 epitope (Nef amino acids 137-146) correlated significantly with reduced acute phase viraemia. Finally, two of the eight vaccinees lost control of viral replication in the chronic phase, concomitant with escape in all three targeted epitopes, further implicating these three CD8(+) T-cell responses in the control of viral replication. Our findings indicate that narrowly targeted vaccine-induced virus-specific CD8(+) T-cell responses can control replication of the AIDS virus.

High resolution sequencing of hepatitis C virus reveals limited intra-hepatic compartmentalization in end-stage liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The high replication and mutation rate of hepatitis C virus (HCV) results in a heterogeneous population of viral sequences in vivo. HCV replicates in the liver and infected hepatocytes occur as foci surrounded by uninfected cells that may promote compartmentalization of viral variants. Given recent reports showing interferon stimulated gene (ISG) expression in chronic hepatitis C, we hypothesized that local interferon responses may limit HCV replication and evolution. METHODS: To investigate the spatial influence of liver architecture on viral replication we measured HCV RNA and ISG mRNA from each of the 8 Couinaud segments of the liver from 21 patients undergoing liver transplant. RESULTS: HCV RNA and ISG mRNA levels were comparable across all sites from an individual liver but showed up to 500-fold difference between patients. Importantly, there was no association between ISG and HCV RNA expression across all sites in the liver or plasma. Deep sequencing of HCV RNA isolated from the 8 hepatic sites from two subjects showed a similar distribution of viral quasispecies across the liver and uniform sequence diversity. Single genome amplification of HCV E1E2-envelope clones from 6 selected patients at 2 hepatic sites supported these data and showed no evidence for HCV compartmentalization. CONCLUSIONS: We found no differences between the hepatic and plasma viral quasispecies in all patients sampled. We conclude that in end-stage liver disease HCV RNA levels and the genetic pool of HCV envelope sequences are indistinguishable between distant sites in the liver and plasma, arguing against viral compartmentalization. LAY SUMMARY: HCV is an RNA virus that exists as a quasispecies of closely related genomes that are under continuous selection by host innate and adaptive immune responses and antiviral drug therapy. The primary site of HCV replication is the liver and yet our understanding of the spatial distribution of viral variants within the liver is limited. High resolution sequencing of HCV and monitoring of innate immune responses at multiple sites across the liver identified a uniform pattern of diversity and argues against viral compartmentalization.

Vaccine-Induced Simian Immunodeficiency Virus-Specific CD8+ T-Cell Responses Focused on a Single Nef Epitope Select for Escape Variants Shortly after Infection.

UNLABELLED: Certain major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) alleles (e.g., HLA-B*27) are enriched among human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected individuals who suppress viremia without treatment (termed "elite controllers" [ECs]). Likewise, Mamu-B*08 expression also predisposes rhesus macaques to control simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) replication. Given the similarities between Mamu-B*08 and HLA-B*27, SIV-infected Mamu-B*08(+) animals provide a model to investigate HLA-B*27-mediated elite control. We have recently shown that vaccination with three immunodominant Mamu-B*08-restricted epitopes (Vif RL8, Vif RL9, and Nef RL10) increased the incidence of elite control in Mamu-B*08(+) macaques after challenge with the pathogenic SIVmac239 clone. Furthermore, a correlate analysis revealed that CD8(+) T cells targeting Nef RL10 was correlated with improved outcome. Interestingly, this epitope is conserved between SIV and HIV-1 and exhibits a delayed and atypical escape pattern. These features led us to postulate that a monotypic vaccine-induced Nef RL10-specific CD8(+) T-cell response would facilitate the development of elite control in Mamu-B*08(+) animals following repeated intrarectal challenges with SIVmac239. To test this, we vaccinated Mamu-B*08(+) animals with nef inserts in which Nef RL10 was either left intact (group 1) or disrupted by mutations (group 2). Although monkeys in both groups mounted Nef-specific cellular responses, only those in group 1 developed Nef RL10-specific CD8(+) T cells. These vaccine-induced effector memory CD8(+) T cells did not prevent infection. Escape variants emerged rapidly in the group 1 vaccinees, and ultimately, the numbers of ECs were similar in groups 1 and 2. High-frequency vaccine-induced CD8(+) T cells focused on a single conserved epitope and therefore did not prevent infection or increase the incidence of elite control in Mamu-B*08(+) macaques. IMPORTANCE: Since elite control of chronic-phase viremia is a classic example of an effective immune response against HIV/SIV, elucidating the basis of this phenomenon may provide useful insights into how to elicit such responses by vaccination. We have previously established that vaccine-induced CD8(+) T-cell responses against three immunodominant epitopes can increase the incidence of elite control in SIV-infected Mamu-B*08(+) rhesus macaques­a model of HLA-B*27-mediated elite control. Here, we investigated whether a monotypic vaccine-induced CD8(+) T-cell response targeting the conserved "late-escaping" Nef RL10 epitope can increase the incidence of elite control in Mamu-B*08(+) monkeys. Surprisingly, vaccine-induced Nef RL10-specific CD8(+) T cells selected for variants within days after infection and, ultimately, did not facilitate the development of elite control. Elite control is, therefore, likely to involve CD8(+) T-cell responses against more than one epitope. Together, these results underscore the complexity and multidimensional nature of virologic control of lentivirus infection.

Effect of scavenger receptor class B type I antagonist ITX5061 in patients with hepatitis C virus infection undergoing liver transplantation.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) entry inhibitors have been hypothesized to prevent infection of the liver after transplantation. ITX5061 is a scavenger receptor class B type I antagonist that blocks HCV entry and infection in vitro. We assessed the safety and efficacy of ITX5061 to limit HCV infection of the graft. The study included 23 HCV-infected patients undergoing liver transplantation. The first 13 "control" patients did not receive drug. The subsequent 10 patients received 150 mg of ITX5061 immediately before and after transplant and daily for 1 week thereafter. ITX5061 pharmacokinetics and plasma HCV RNA were quantified. Viral genetic diversity was measured by ultradeep pyrosequencing (UDPS). ITX5061 was well tolerated with measurable plasma concentrations during therapy. Although the median HCV RNA reduction was greater in ITX-treated patients at all time points in the first week after transplantation, there was no difference in the overall change in the area over the HCV RNA curve in the 7-day treatment period. However, in genotype (GT) 1-infected patients, treatment was associated with a sustained reduction in HCV RNA levels compared to the control group (area over the HCV RNA curve analysis, P = 0.004). UDPS revealed a complex and evolving pattern of HCV variants infecting the graft during the first week. ITX5061 significantly limited viral evolution where the median divergence between day 0 and day 7 was 3.5% in the control group compared to 0.1% in the treated group. In conclusion, ITX5061 reduces plasma HCV RNA after transplant notably in GT 1-infected patients and slows viral evolution. Following liver transplantation, the likely contribution of extrahepatic reservoirs of HCV necessitates combining entry inhibitors such as ITX5061 with inhibitors of replication in future studies.

Deep sequencing of hepatitis C virus reveals genetic compartmentalization in cerebrospinal fluid from cognitively impaired patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes neuropsychiatric impairment and fatigue with recent studies suggesting HCV invasion of the central nervous system (CNS). Our previous finding that endothelial cells from the blood-brain barrier support HCV infection warrants further investigation to elucidate whether the CNS can serve as a reservoir for independent HCV evolution. METHODS: Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and plasma from six HCV-infected patients without liver disease or co-morbidities together with plasma from six healthy subjects were profiled for markers of immune activation and viral quasispecies measured by deep sequencing. Unsupervised data analyses were used to identify any associations between cytokine activation markers and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Four of six HCV-infected patients showed significant evidence of cognitive dysfunction and fatigue. Deep sequencing revealed independent viral evolution within the CNS of two cognitively impaired patients. Principal component analysis of peripheral cytokines demonstrated that individuals without cognitive impairment clustered together while a distinct cytokine pattern emerged with patients exhibiting cognitive dysfunction and fatigue. CONCLUSIONS: Deep sequencing demonstrated unique viral variants in the CSF of two cognitively impaired patients consistent with CNS replication or sequestration. Meanwhile, compartmentalization was absent in infected patients with no neurocognitive impairment. Examination of cytokine profiles in HCV-infected patients with cognitive dysfunction revealed elevated peripheral cytokine levels resulting in a distinct cytokine profile that may be related to cognitive impairment or viral penetration into the CNS. Further studies to determine the significance of unique HCV variants within the CNS are warranted.

Inferring the multiplicity of founder variants initiating HIV-1 infection: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 infections initiated by multiple founder variants are characterised by a higher viral load and a worse clinical prognosis than those initiated with single founder variants, yet little is known about the routes of exposure through which transmission of multiple founder variants is most probable. Here we used individual patient data to calculate the probability of multiple founders stratified by route of HIV exposure and study methodology. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that estimated founder variant multiplicity in HIV-1 infection, searching MEDLINE, Embase, and Global Health databases for papers published between Jan 1, 1990, and Sept 14, 2020. Eligible studies must have reported original estimates of founder variant multiplicity in people with acute or early HIV-1 infections, have clearly detailed the methods used, and reported the route of exposure. Studies were excluded if they reported data concerning people living with HIV-1 who had known or suspected superinfection, who were documented as having received pre-exposure prophylaxis, or if the transmitting partner was known to be receiving antiretroviral treatment. Individual patient data were collated from all studies, with authors contacted if these data were not publicly available. We applied logistic meta-regression to these data to estimate the probability that an HIV infection is initiated by multiple founder variants. We calculated a pooled estimate using a random effects model, subsequently stratifying this estimate across exposure routes in a univariable analysis. We then extended our model to adjust for different study methods in a multivariable analysis, recalculating estimates across the exposure routes. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020202672. FINDINGS: We included 70 publications in our analysis, comprising 1657 individual patients. Our pooled estimate of the probability that an infection is initiated by multiple founder variants was 0·25 (95% CI 0·21-0·29), with moderate heterogeneity (Q=132·3, p<0·0001, I2=64·2%). Our multivariable analysis uncovered differences in the probability of multiple variant infection by exposure route. Relative to a baseline of male-to-female transmission, the predicted probability for female-to-male multiple variant transmission was significantly lower at 0·13 (95% CI 0·08-0·20), and the probabilities were significantly higher for transmissions in people who inject drugs (0·37 [0·24-0·53]) and men who have sex with men (0·30 [0·33-0·40]). There was no significant difference in the probability of multiple variant transmission between male-to-female transmission (0·21 [0·14-0·31]), post-partum transmission (0·18 [0·03-0·57]), pre-partum transmission (0·17 [0·08-0·33]), and intra-partum transmission (0·27 [0·14-0·45]). INTERPRETATION: We identified that transmissions in people who inject drugs and men who have sex with men are significantly more likely to result in an infection initiated by multiple founder variants, and female-to-male infections are significantly less probable. Quantifying how the routes of HIV infection affect the transmission of multiple variants allows us to better understand how the evolution and epidemiology of HIV-1 determine clinical outcomes. FUNDING: Medical Research Council Precision Medicine Doctoral Training Programme and a European Research Council Starting Grant.

Validation of Dried Blood Spots for Capturing Hepatitis C Virus Diversity for Genomic Surveillance.

Dried blood spots (DBS) have emerged as a promising alternative to traditional venous blood for HCV testing. However, their capacity to accurately reflect the genetic diversity of HCV remains poorly understood. We employed deep sequencing and advanced phylogenetic analyses on paired plasma and DBS samples to evaluate the suitability of DBS for genomic surveillance. Results demonstrated that DBS captured equivalent viral diversity compared to plasma with no phylogenetic discordance observed. The ability of DBS to accurately reflect the profile of viral genetic diversity suggests it may be a promising avenue for future surveillance efforts to curb HCV outbreaks.

Early prediction of mortality risk among patients with severe COVID-19, using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, has been spreading globally. We aimed to develop a clinical model to predict the outcome of patients with severe COVID-19 infection early. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and first laboratory findings after admission of 183 patients with severe COVID-19 infection (115 survivors and 68 non-survivors from the Sino-French New City Branch of Tongji Hospital, Wuhan) were used to develop the predictive models. Machine learning approaches were used to select the features and predict the patients' outcomes. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was applied to compare the models' performance. A total of 64 with severe COVID-19 infection from the Optical Valley Branch of Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, were used to externally validate the final predictive model. RESULTS: The baseline characteristics and laboratory tests were significantly different between the survivors and non-survivors. Four variables (age, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level, lymphocyte count and d-dimer level) were selected by all five models. Given the similar performance among the models, the logistic regression model was selected as the final predictive model because of its simplicity and interpretability. The AUROCs of the external validation sets were 0.881. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.839 and 0.794 for the validation set, when using a probability of death of 50% as the cutoff. Risk score based on the selected variables can be used to assess the mortality risk. The predictive model is available at [https://phenomics.fudan.edu.cn/risk_scores/]. CONCLUSIONS: Age, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level, lymphocyte count and d-dimer level of COVID-19 patients at admission are informative for the patients' outcomes.

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.