Dynamics of a Snowball Earth ocean.

Geological evidence suggests that marine ice extended to the Equator at least twice during the Neoproterozoic era (about 750 to 635 million years ago), inspiring the Snowball Earth hypothesis that the Earth was globally ice-covered. In a possible Snowball Earth climate, ocean circulation and mixing processes would have set the melting and freezing rates that determine ice thickness, would have influenced the survival of photosynthetic life, and may provide important constraints for the interpretation of geochemical and sedimentological observations. Here we show that in a Snowball Earth, the ocean would have been well mixed and characterized by a dynamic circulation, with vigorous equatorial meridional overturning circulation, zonal equatorial jets, a well developed eddy field, strong coastal upwelling and convective mixing. This is in contrast to the sluggish ocean often expected in a Snowball Earth scenario owing to the insulation of the ocean from atmospheric forcing by the thick ice cover. As a result of vigorous convective mixing, the ocean temperature, salinity and density were either uniform in the vertical direction or weakly stratified in a few locations. Our results are based on a model that couples ice flow and ocean circulation, and is driven by a weak geothermal heat flux under a global ice cover about a kilometre thick. Compared with the modern ocean, the Snowball Earth ocean had far larger vertical mixing rates, and comparable horizontal mixing by ocean eddies. The strong circulation and coastal upwelling resulted in melting rates near continents as much as ten times larger than previously estimated. Although we cannot resolve the debate over the existence of global ice cover, we discuss the implications for the nutrient supply of photosynthetic activity and for banded iron formations. Our insights and constraints on ocean dynamics may help resolve the Snowball Earth controversy when combined with future geochemical and geological observations.

Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming.

High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback--consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state--slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼ 10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the "lapse rate feedback" in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates.

Effects of explicit atmospheric convection at high CO2.

The effect of clouds on climate remains the largest uncertainty in climate change predictions, due to the inability of global climate models (GCMs) to resolve essential small-scale cloud and convection processes. We compare preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 simulations between a conventional GCM in which convection is parameterized and a "superparameterized" model in which convection is explicitly simulated with a cloud-permitting model in each grid cell. We find that the global responses of the two models to increased CO2 are broadly similar: both simulate ice-free Arctic summers, wintertime Arctic convection, and enhanced Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) activity. Superparameterization produces significant differences at both CO2 levels, including greater Arctic cloud cover, further reduced sea ice area at high CO2, and a stronger increase with CO2 of the MJO.

Exploring the nonlinear cloud and rain equation.

Marine stratocumulus cloud decks are regarded as the reflectors of the climate system, returning back to space a significant part of the income solar radiation, thus cooling the atmosphere. Such clouds can exist in two stable modes, open and closed cells, for a wide range of environmental conditions. This emergent behavior of the system, and its sensitivity to aerosol and environmental properties, is captured by a set of nonlinear equations. Here, using linear stability analysis, we express the transition from steady to a limit-cycle state analytically, showing how it depends on the model parameters. We show that the control of the droplet concentration (N), the environmental carrying-capacity (H0), and the cloud recovery parameter (τ) can be linked by a single nondimensional parameter (µ=N/(ατH0)), suggesting that for deeper clouds the transition from open (oscillating) to closed (stable fixed point) cells will occur for higher droplet concentration (i.e., higher aerosol loading). The analytical calculations of the possible states, and how they are affected by changes in aerosol and the environmental variables, provide an enhanced understanding of the complex interactions of clouds and rain.

Biologically induced initiation of Neoproterozoic snowball-Earth events.

The glaciations of the Neoproterozoic Era (1,000 to 542 MyBP) were preceded by dramatically light C isotopic excursions preserved in preglacial deposits. Standard explanations of these excursions involve remineralization of isotopically light organic matter and imply strong enhancement of atmospheric CO(2) greenhouse gas concentration, apparently inconsistent with the glaciations that followed. We examine a scenario in which the isotopic signal, as well as the global glaciation, result from enhanced export of organic matter from the upper ocean into anoxic subsurface waters and sediments. The organic matter undergoes anoxic remineralization at depth via either sulfate- or iron-reducing bacteria. In both cases, this can lead to changes in carbonate alkalinity and dissolved inorganic pool that efficiently lower the atmospheric CO(2) concentration, possibly plunging Earth into an ice age. This scenario predicts enhanced deposition of calcium carbonate, the formation of siderite, and an increase in ocean pH, all of which are consistent with recent observations. Late Neoproterozoic diversification of marine eukaryotes may have facilitated the episodic enhancement of export of organic matter from the upper ocean, by causing a greater proportion of organic matter to be partitioned as particulate aggregates that can sink more efficiently, via increased cell size, biomineralization or increased CN of eukaryotic phytoplankton. The scenario explains isotopic excursions that are correlated or uncorrelated with snowball initiation, and suggests that increasing atmospheric oxygen concentrations and a progressive oxygenation of the subsurface ocean helped to prevent snowball glaciation on the Phanerozoic Earth.

Dynamic Europa ocean shows transient Taylor columns and convection driven by ice melting and salinity.

The deep (~100 km) ocean of Europa, Jupiter's moon, covered by a thick icy shell, is one of the most probable places in the solar system to find extraterrestrial life. Yet, its ocean dynamics and its interaction with the ice cover have received little attention. Previous studies suggested that Europa's ocean is turbulent using a global model and taking into account non-hydrostatic effects and the full Coriolis force. Here we add critical elements, including consistent top and bottom heating boundary conditions and the effects of icy shell melting and freezing on ocean salinity. We find weak stratification that is dominated by salinity variations. The ocean exhibits strong transient convection, eddies, and zonal jets. Transient motions organize in Taylor columns parallel to Europa's axis of rotation, are static inside of the tangent cylinder and propagate equatorward outside the cylinder. The meridional oceanic heat transport is intense enough to result in a nearly uniform ice thickness, that is expected to be observable in future missions.

Snowball Earth climate dynamics and Cryogenian geology-geobiology.

Geological evidence indicates that grounded ice sheets reached sea level at all latitudes during two long-lived Cryogenian (58 and ≥5 My) glaciations. Combined uranium-lead and rhenium-osmium dating suggests that the older (Sturtian) glacial onset and both terminations were globally synchronous. Geochemical data imply that CO2 was 102 PAL (present atmospheric level) at the younger termination, consistent with a global ice cover. Sturtian glaciation followed breakup of a tropical supercontinent, and its onset coincided with the equatorial emplacement of a large igneous province. Modeling shows that the small thermal inertia of a globally frozen surface reverses the annual mean tropical atmospheric circulation, producing an equatorial desert and net snow and frost accumulation elsewhere. Oceanic ice thickens, forming a sea glacier that flows gravitationally toward the equator, sustained by the hydrologic cycle and by basal freezing and melting. Tropical ice sheets flow faster as CO2 rises but lose mass and become sensitive to orbital changes. Equatorial dust accumulation engenders supraglacial oligotrophic meltwater ecosystems, favorable for cyanobacteria and certain eukaryotes. Meltwater flushing through cracks enables organic burial and submarine deposition of airborne volcanic ash. The subglacial ocean is turbulent and well mixed, in response to geothermal heating and heat loss through the ice cover, increasing with latitude. Terminal carbonate deposits, unique to Cryogenian glaciations, are products of intense weathering and ocean stratification. Whole-ocean warming and collapsing peripheral bulges allow marine coastal flooding to continue long after ice-sheet disappearance. The evolutionary legacy of Snowball Earth is perceptible in fossils and living organisms.

Using transfer functions to quantify El Niño Southern Oscillation dynamics in data and models.

Transfer function tools commonly used in engineering control analysis can be used to better understand the dynamics of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), compare data with models and identify systematic model errors. The transfer function describes the frequency-dependent input-output relationship between any pair of causally related variables, and can be estimated from time series. This can be used first to assess whether the underlying relationship is or is not frequency dependent, and if so, to diagnose the underlying differential equations that relate the variables, and hence describe the dynamics of individual subsystem processes relevant to ENSO. Estimating process parameters allows the identification of compensating model errors that may lead to a seemingly realistic simulation in spite of incorrect model physics. This tool is applied here to the TAO array ocean data, the GFDL-CM2.1 and CCSM4 general circulation models, and to the Cane-Zebiak ENSO model. The delayed oscillator description is used to motivate a few relevant processes involved in the dynamics, although any other ENSO mechanism could be used instead. We identify several differences in the processes between the models and data that may be useful for model improvement. The transfer function methodology is also useful in understanding the dynamics and evaluating models of other climate processes.

Sea-ice switches and abrupt climate change.

We propose that past abrupt climate changes were probably a result of rapid and extensive variations in sea-ice cover. We explain why this seems a perhaps more likely explanation than a purely thermohaline circulation mechanism. We emphasize that because of the significant influence of sea ice on the climate system, it seems that high priority should be given to developing ways for reconstructing high-resolution (in space and time) sea-ice extent for past climate-change events. If proxy data can confirm that sea ice was indeed the major player in past abrupt climate-change events, it seems less likely that such dramatic abrupt changes will occur due to global warming, when extensive sea-ice cover will not be present.