Albatrosses employ orientation and routing strategies similar to yacht racers.

The way goal-oriented birds adjust their travel direction and route in response to wind significantly affects their travel costs. This is expected to be particularly pronounced in pelagic seabirds, which utilize a wind-dependent flight style called dynamic soaring. Dynamic soaring seabirds in situations without a definite goal, e.g. searching for prey, are known to preferentially fly with crosswinds or quartering-tailwinds to increase the speed and search area, and reduce travel costs. However, little is known about their reaction to wind when heading to a definite goal, such as homing. Homing tracks of wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) vary from beelines to zigzags, which are similar to those of sailboats. Here, given that both albatrosses and sailboats travel slower in headwinds and tailwinds, we tested whether the time-minimizing strategies used by yacht racers can be compared to the locomotion patterns of wandering albatrosses. We predicted that when the goal is located upwind or downwind, albatrosses should deviate their travel directions from the goal on the mesoscale and increase the number of turns on the macroscale. Both hypotheses were supported by track data from albatrosses and racing yachts in the Southern Ocean confirming that albatrosses qualitatively employ the same strategy as yacht racers. Nevertheless, albatrosses did not strictly minimize their travel time, likely making their flight robust against wind fluctuations to reduce flight costs. Our study provides empirical evidence of tacking in albatrosses and demonstrates that man-made movement strategies provide a new perspective on the laws underlying wildlife movement.

Climate change drives migratory range shift via individual plasticity in shearwaters.

How individual animals respond to climate change is key to whether populations will persist or go extinct. Yet, few studies investigate how changes in individual behavior underpin these population-level phenomena. Shifts in the distributions of migratory animals can occur through adaptation in migratory behaviors, but there is little understanding of how selection and plasticity contribute to population range shift. Here, we use long-term geolocator tracking of Balearic shearwaters (Puffinus mauretanicus) to investigate how year-to-year changes in individual birds' migrations underpin a range shift in the post-breeding migration. We demonstrate a northward shift in the post-breeding range and show that this is brought about by individual plasticity in migratory destination, with individuals migrating further north in response to changes in sea-surface temperature. Furthermore, we find that when individuals migrate further, they return faster, perhaps minimizing delays in return to the breeding area. Birds apparently judge the increased distance that they will need to migrate via memory of the migration route, suggesting that spatial cognitive mechanisms may contribute to this plasticity and the resulting range shift. Our study exemplifies the role that individual behavior plays in populations' responses to environmental change and highlights some of the behavioral mechanisms that might be key to understanding and predicting species persistence in response to climate change.

Albatross movement suggests sensitivity to infrasound cues at sea.

The ways in which seabirds navigate over very large spatial scales remain poorly understood. While olfactory and visual information can provide guidance over short distances, their range is often limited to 100s km, far below the navigational capacity of wide-ranging animals such as albatrosses. Infrasound is a form of low-frequency sound that propagates for 1,000s km in the atmosphere. In marine habitats, its association with storms and ocean surface waves could in effect make it a useful cue for anticipating environmental conditions that favor or hinder flight or be associated with profitable foraging patches. However, behavioral responses of wild birds to infrasound remain untested. Here, we explored whether wandering albatrosses, Diomedea exulans, respond to microbarom infrasound at sea. We used Global Positioning System tracks of 89 free-ranging albatrosses in combination with acoustic modeling to investigate whether albatrosses preferentially orientate toward areas of 'loud' microbarom infrasound on their foraging trips. We found that in addition to responding to winds encountered in situ, albatrosses moved toward source regions associated with higher sound pressure levels. These findings suggest that albatrosses may be responding to long-range infrasonic cues. As albatrosses depend on winds and waves for soaring flight, infrasonic cues may help albatrosses to identify environmental conditions that allow them to energetically optimize flight over long distances. Our results shed light on one of the great unresolved mysteries in nature, navigation in seemingly featureless ocean environments.

Albatrosses develop attraction to fishing vessels during immaturity but avoid them at old age.

Animals have to develop novel behaviours to adapt to anthropogenic activities or environmental changes. Fishing vessels constitute a recent feature that attracts albatrosses in large numbers. While they provide a valuable food source through offal and bait, they cause mortalities through bycatch, such that selection on vessel attraction will depend on the cost-benefit balance. We examine whether attraction to fishing and other vessels changes through the lifetime of great albatrosses, and show that attraction differed between age classes, sexes and personality. Juveniles encountered fewer vessels than adults, but also showed a lower attraction to vessels when encountered. Attraction rates, especially for fishing vessels, increased through immaturity to peak during adulthood, decreasing with old age. Shy females had lower attraction to vessels and shy males remained at vessels longer, suggesting that bolder individuals may outcompete shyer ones, with positive consequences for mass gain. These results suggest that attraction to vessels is a learned process, leading to an increase with age, and is not the result of preferential attraction to new objects by juveniles. Overall, our findings have important conservation implications as a result of potential strong differential selection on the risk of bycatch for age classes, personality types, populations and species.

Boldness predicts plasticity in flight responses to winds.

Behavioural plasticity can allow populations to adjust to environmental change when genetic evolution is too slow to keep pace. However, its constraints are not well understood. Personality is known to shape individual behaviour, but its relationship to behavioural plasticity is unclear. We studied the relationship between boldness and behavioural plasticity in response to wind conditions in wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans). We fitted multivariate hidden Markov models to an 11-year GPS dataset collected from 294 birds to examine whether the probability of transitioning between behavioural states (rest, prey search and travel) varied in response to wind, boldness and their interaction. We found that movement decisions varied with boldness, with bolder birds showing preferences for travel, and shyer birds showing preferences for search. For females, these effects depended on wind speed. In strong winds, which are optimal for movement, females increased time spent in travel, while in weaker winds, shyer individuals showed a slight preference for search, while bolder individuals maintained preference for travel. Our findings suggest that individual variation in behavioural plasticity may limit the capacity of bolder females to adjust to variable conditions and highlight the important role of behavioural plasticity in population responses to climate change.

How does maternal age influence reproductive performance and offspring phenotype in the snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea)?

In wild vertebrates, the increase of breeding success with advancing age has been extensively studied through laying date, clutch size, hatching success, and fledging success. However, to better evaluate the influence of age on reproductive performance in species with high reproductive success, assessing not only reproductive success but also other proxies of reproductive performance appear crucial. For example, the quality of developmental conditions and offspring phenotype can provide robust and complementary information on reproductive performance. In long-lived vertebrate species, several proxies of developmental conditions can be used to estimate the quality of the produced offspring (i.e., body size, body condition, corticosterone levels, and telomere length), and therefore, their probability to survive. By sampling chicks reared by known-aged mothers, we investigated the influence of maternal age on reproductive performance and offspring quality in a long-lived bird species, the snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea). Older females bred and left their chick alone earlier. Moreover, older females had larger chicks that grew faster, and ultimately, those chicks had a higher survival probability at the nest. In addition, older mothers produced chicks with a higher sensitivity to stress, as shown by moderately higher stress-induced corticosterone levels. Overall, our study demonstrated that maternal age is correlated to reproductive performance (hatching date, duration of the guarding period and survival) and offspring quality (body size, growth rate and sensitivity to stress), suggesting that older individuals provide better parental cares to their offspring. These results also demonstrate that maternal age can affect the offspring phenotype with potential long-term consequences.

Ocean sentinel albatrosses locate illegal vessels and provide the first estimate of the extent of nondeclared fishing.

With threats to nature becoming increasingly prominent, in order for biodiversity levels to persist, there is a critical need to improve implementation of conservation measures. In the oceans, the surveillance of fisheries is complex and inadequate, such that quantifying and locating nondeclared and illegal fisheries is persistently problematic. Given that these activities dramatically impact oceanic ecosystems, through overexploitation of fish stocks and bycatch of threatened species, innovative ways to monitor the oceans are urgently required. Here, we describe a concept of "Ocean Sentinel" using animals equipped with state-of-the-art loggers which monitor fisheries in remote areas. Albatrosses fitted with loggers detecting and locating the presence of vessels and transmitting the information immediately to authorities allowed an estimation of the proportion of nondeclared fishing vessels operating in national and international waters of the Southern Ocean. We found that in international waters, more than one-third of vessels had no Automatic Identification System operating; in national Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), this proportion was lower on average, but variable according to EEZ. Ocean Sentinel was also able to provide unpreceded information on the attraction of seabirds to vessels, giving access to crucial information for risk-assessment plans of threatened species. Attraction differed between species, age, and vessel activity. Fishing vessels attracted more birds than other vessels, and juveniles both encountered fewer vessels and showed a lower attraction to vessels than adults. This study shows that the development of technologies offers the potential of implementing conservation policies by using wide-ranging seabirds to patrol oceans.

Mercury contamination in the tropical seabird community from Clipperton Island, eastern Pacific Ocean.

Mercury (Hg) pollution is a global problem affecting remote areas of the open ocean, but the bioaccumulation of this neurotoxic pollutant in tropical top predators remains poorly documented. The objective of this study was to determine Hg contamination of the seabird community nesting on Clipperton Island using blood and feathers to investigate short and longer-term contamination, respectively. We examined the significance of various factors (species, sex, feeding habitat [δ13C] and trophic position [δ15N]) on Hg concentrations in six seabird species. Among species, Great Frigatebirds had the highest Hg concentrations in blood and feathers, boobies had intermediate values, and Brown Noddies and Sooty Terns the lowest. At the interspecific level, although δ13C values segregated boobies from frigatebirds and noddies/terns, Hg concentrations were explained by neither δ13C nor δ15N values. At the intraspecific level, both Hg concentrations in blood and feathers show relatively small variations (16-32 and 26-74%, respectively), suggesting that feeding ecology had low seasonal variation among individuals. Despite most species being sexually dimorphic, differences in Hg contamination according to sex was detected only in Brown Boobies during the breeding period. Indeed, female Brown Boobies feed at a higher trophic level and in a different area than males during this period, resulting in higher blood Hg concentrations. The present study also shows that most of the seabirds sampled at Clipperton Island had little or no exposure to Hg toxicity, with 30% in the no risk category and 70% in the low risk category.

When the going gets tough, the tough get going: Effect of extreme climate on an Antarctic seabird's life history.

Individuals differ in many ways. Most produce few offspring; a handful produce many. Some die early; others live to old age. It is tempting to attribute these differences in outcomes to differences in individual traits, and thus in the demographic rates experienced. However, there is more to individual variation than meets the eye of the biologist. Even among individuals sharing identical traits, life history outcomes (life expectancy and lifetime reproduction) will vary due to individual stochasticity, that is to chance. Quantifying the contributions of heterogeneity and chance is essential to understand natural variability. Interindividual differences vary across environmental conditions, hence heterogeneity and stochasticity depend on environmental conditions. We show that favourable conditions increase the contributions of individual stochasticity, and reduce the contributions of heterogeneity, to variance in demographic outcomes in a seabird population. The opposite is true under poor conditions. This result has important consequence for understanding the ecology and evolution of life history strategies.

Causes and consequences of pair-bond disruption in a sex-skewed population of a long-lived monogamous seabird.

Many animals form long-term monogamous pair bonds, and the disruption of a pair bond (through either divorce or widowhood) can have significant consequences for individual vital rates (survival, breeding, and breeding success probabilities) and life-history outcomes (lifetime reproductive success [LRS], life expectancy). Here, we investigated the causes and consequences of pair-bond disruption in wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans). State-of-the-art statistical and mathematical approaches were developed to estimate divorce and widowhood rates and their impacts on vital rates and life-history outcomes. In this population, females incur a higher mortality rate due to incidental fishery bycatch, so the population is male-skewed. Therefore, we first posited that males would show higher widowhood rates negatively correlated with fishing effort and females would have higher divorce rates because they have more mating opportunities. Furthermore, we expected that divorce could be an adaptive strategy, whereby individuals improved breeding success by breeding with a new partner of better quality. Finally, we posited that pair-bond disruptions could reduce survival and breeding probabilities owing to the cost of remating processes, with important consequences for life-history outcomes. As expected, we showed that males had higher widowhood rates than females and females had higher divorce rates in this male-skewed population. However, no correlation was found between fishing effort and male widowhood. Secondly, contrary to our expectation, we found that divorce was likely nonadaptive in this population. We propose that divorce in this population is caused by an intruder who outcompetes the original partner in line with the so-called forced divorce hypothesis. Furthermore, we found a 16.7% and 18.0% reduction in LRS only for divorced and widowed males, respectively, owing to missing breeding seasons after a pair-bond disruption. Finally, we found that divorced individuals were more likely to divorce again, but whether this is related to specific individual characteristics remains an important area of investigation.

Independent evolution of intermediate bill widths in a seabird clade.

Interspecific introgression can occur between species that evolve rapidly within an adaptive radiation. Pachyptila petrels differ in bill size and are characterised by incomplete reproductive isolation, leading to interspecific gene flow. Salvin's prion (Pachyptila salvini), whose bill width is intermediate between broad-billed (P. vittata) and Antarctic (P. desolata) prions, evolved through homoploid hybrid speciation. MacGillivray's prion (P. macgillivrayi), known from a single population on St Paul (Indian Ocean), has a bill width intermediate between salvini and vittata and could also be the product of interspecies introgression or hybrid speciation. Recently, another prion population phenotypically similar to macgillivrayi was discovered on Gough (Atlantic Ocean), where it breeds 3 months later than vittata. The similarity in bill width between the medium-billed birds on Gough and macgillivrayi suggest that they could be closely related. In this study, we used genetic and morphological data to infer the phylogenetic position and evolutionary history of P. macgillivrayi and the Gough medium-billed prion relative other Pachyptila taxa, to determine whether species with medium bill widths evolved through common ancestry or convergence. We found that Gough medium-billed prions belong to the same evolutionary lineage as macgillivrayi, representing a new population of MacGillivray's prion that originated through a colonisation event from St Paul. We show that macgillivrayi's medium bill width evolved through divergence (genetic drift) and independently from that of salvini, which evolved through hybridisation (gene flow). This represents the independent convergence towards a similarly medium-billed phenotype. The newly discovered MacGillivray's prion population on Gough is of utmost conservation relevance, as the relict macgillivrayi population in the Indian Ocean is very small.

Boldness predicts divorce rates in wandering albatrosses (Diomedea exulans).

Personality predicts divorce rates in humans, yet how personality traits affect divorce in wild animals remains largely unknown. In a male-skewed population of wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans), we showed that personality predicts divorce; shyer males exhibited higher divorce rates than bolder males but no such relationship was found in females. We propose that divorce may be caused by the intrusion of male competitors and shyer males divorce more often because of their avoidance of territorial aggression, while females have easier access to mates regardless of their personality. Thus, personality may have important implications for the dynamics of social relationships.

Albatrosses respond adaptively to climate variability by changing variance in a foraging trait.

The ability of individuals and populations to adapt to a changing climate is a key determinant of population dynamics. While changes in mean behaviour are well studied, changes in trait variance have been largely ignored, despite being assumed to be crucial for adapting to a changing environment. As the ability to acquire resources is essential to both reproduction and survival, changes in behaviours that maximize resource acquisition should be under selection. Here, using foraging trip duration data collected over 7 years on black-browed albatrosses (Thalassarche melanophris) on the Kerguelen Islands in the southern Indian Ocean, we examined the importance of changes in the mean and variance in foraging behaviour, and the associated effects on fitness, in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using double hierarchical models, we found no evidence that individuals change their mean foraging trip duration in response to a changing environment, but found strong evidence of changes in variance. Younger birds showed greater variability in foraging trip duration in poor conditions as did birds with higher fitness. However, during brooding, birds showed greater variability in foraging behaviour under good conditions, suggesting that optimal conditions allow the alteration between chick provisioning and self-maintenance trips. We found weak correlations between sea surface temperature and the ENSO, but stronger links with sea-level pressure. We suggest that variability in behavioural traits affecting resource acquisition is under selection and offers a mechanism by which individuals can adapt to a changing climate. Studies which look only at effects on mean behaviour may underestimate the effects of climate change and fail to consider variance in traits as a key evolutionary force.

Untangling local and remote influences in two major petrel habitats in the oligotrophic Southern Ocean.

Ocean circulation connects geographically distinct ecosystems across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales via exchanges of physical and biogeochemical properties. Remote oceanographic processes can be especially important for ecosystems in the Southern Ocean, where the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transports properties across ocean basins through both advection and mixing. Recent tracking studies have indicated the existence of two large-scale, open ocean habitats in the Southern Ocean used by grey petrels (Procellaria cinerea) from two populations (i.e., Kerguelen and Antipodes islands) during their nonbreeding season for extended periods during austral summer (i.e., October to February). In this work, we use a novel combination of large-scale oceanographic observations, surface drifter data, satellite-derived primary productivity, numerical adjoint sensitivity experiments, and output from a biogeochemical state estimate to examine local and remote influences on these grey petrel habitats. Our aim is to understand the oceanographic features that control these isolated foraging areas and to evaluate their ecological value as oligotrophic open ocean habitats. We estimate the minimum local primary productivity required to support these populations to be much <1% of the estimated local primary productivity. The region in the southeast Indian Ocean used by the birds from Kerguelen is connected by circulation to the productive Kerguelen shelf. In contrast, the region in the south-central Pacific Ocean used by seabirds from the Antipodes is relatively isolated suggesting it is more influenced by local factors or the cumulative effects of many seasonal cycles. This work exemplifies the potential use of predator distributions and oceanographic data to highlight areas of the open ocean that may be more dynamic and productive than previously thought. Our results highlight the need to consider advective connections between ecosystems in the Southern Ocean and to re-evaluate the ecological relevance of oligotrophic Southern Ocean regions from a conservation perspective.

The early life of king penguins: ontogeny of dive capacity and foraging behaviour in an expert diver.

The period of emancipation in seabirds, when juveniles change from a terrestrial existence to a life at sea, is associated with many challenges. Apart from finding favourable foraging sites, they have to develop effective prey search patterns and physiological capacities that enable them to capture sufficient prey to meet their energetic needs. Animals that dive to forage, such as king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus), need to acquire an adequate breath-hold capacity, allowing them to locate and capture prey at depth. To investigate the ontogeny of their dive capacity and foraging performance, we implanted juvenile king penguins before their first departure to sea and also adult breeders with a data-logger recording pressure and temperature. We found that juvenile king penguins possess a remarkable dive capacity when leaving their natal colony, enabling them to conduct dives in excess of 100 m within their first week at sea. Despite this, juvenile dive/foraging performance, investigated in relation to dive depth, remained below the adult level throughout their first year at sea, probably reflecting physiological limitations as a result of incomplete maturation. A significantly shallower foraging depth of juveniles, particularly during their first 5 months at sea, could also indicate differences in foraging strategy and targeted prey. The initially greater wiggle rate suggests that juveniles fed opportunistically and also targeted different prey from adults and/or that many of the wiggles of juveniles reflect unsuccessful prey-capture attempts, indicating a lower foraging proficiency. After 5 months, this difference disappeared, suggesting sufficient physical maturation and improvement of juvenile foraging skills.

Spatial segregation in a sexually dimorphic central place forager: Competitive exclusion or niche divergence?

Sexual competition is increasingly recognized as an important selective pressure driving species distributions. However, few studies have investigated the relative importance of interpopulation versus intrapopulation competition in relation to habitat availability and selection. To explain spatial segregation between sexes that often occurs in non-territorial and central place foragers, such as seabirds, two hypotheses are commonly used. The 'competitive exclusion' hypothesis states that dominant individuals should exclude subordinate individuals through direct competition, whereas the 'niche divergence' hypothesis states that segregation occurs due to past competition and habitat specialization. We tested these hypotheses in two populations of an extreme wide-ranging and sexually dimorphic seabird, investigating the relative role of intrapopulation and interpopulation competition in influencing sex-specific distribution and habitat preferences. Using GPS loggers, we tracked 192 wandering albatrosses Diomedea exulans during four consecutive years (2016-2019), from two neighbouring populations in the Southern Ocean (Prince Edward and Crozet archipelagos). We simulated pseudo-tracks to create a null spatial distribution and used Kernel Density Estimates (KDE) and Resource Selection Functions (RSF) to distinguish the relative importance of within- versus between-population competition. Kernel Density Estimates showed that only intrapopulation sexual segregation was significant for each monitoring year, and that tracks between the two colonies resulted in greater overlap than expected from the null distribution, especially for the females. RSF confirmed these results and highlighted key at-sea foraging areas, even if the estimated of at-sea densities were extremely low. These differences in selected areas between sites and sexes were, however, associated with high interannual variability in habitat preferences, with no clear specific preferences per site and sex. Our results suggest that even with low at-sea population densities, historic intrapopulation competition in wide-ranging seabirds may have led to sexual dimorphism and niche specialization, favouring the 'niche divergence' hypothesis. In this study, we provide a protocol to study competition within as well as between populations of central place foragers. This is relevant for understanding their distribution patterns and population regulation, which could potentially improve management of threatened populations.

Additive Traits Lead to Feeding Advantage and Reproductive Isolation, Promoting Homoploid Hybrid Speciation.

Speciation through homoploid hybridization (HHS) is considered extremely rare in animals. This is mainly because the establishment of reproductive isolation as a product of hybridization is uncommon. Additionally, many traits are underpinned by polygeny and/or incomplete dominance, where the hybrid phenotype is an additive blend of parental characteristics. Phenotypically intermediate hybrids are usually at a fitness disadvantage compared with parental species and tend to vanish through backcrossing with parental population(s). It is therefore unknown whether the additive nature of hybrid traits in itself could lead successfully to HHS. Using a multi-marker genetic data set and a meta-analysis of diet and morphology, we investigated a potential case of HHS in the prions (Pachyptila spp.), seabirds distinguished by their bills, prey choice, and timing of breeding. Using approximate Bayesian computation, we show that the medium-billed Salvin's prion (Pachyptila salvini) could be a hybrid between the narrow-billed Antarctic prion (Pachyptila desolata) and broad-billed prion (Pachyptila vittata). Remarkably, P. salvini's intermediate bill width has given it a feeding advantage with respect to the other Pachyptila species, allowing it to consume a broader range of prey, potentially increasing its fitness. Available metadata showed that P. salvini is also intermediate in breeding phenology and, with no overlap in breeding times, it is effectively reproductively isolated from either parental species through allochrony. These results provide evidence for a case of HHS in nature, and show for the first time that additivity of divergent parental traits alone can lead directly to increased hybrid fitness and reproductive isolation.

Albatrosses can memorize locations of predictable fishing boats but favour natural foraging.

Human activities generate food attracting many animals worldwide, causing major conservation issues. The spatio-temporal predictability of anthropogenic resources could reduce search costs for animals and mediate their attractiveness. We investigated this through GPS tracking in breeding black-browed albatrosses attracted to fishing boats. We tested for answers to the following questions. (i) Can future boat locations be anticipated from cues available to birds? (ii) Are birds able to appropriately use these cues to increase encounters? (iii) How frequently do birds use these cues? Boats were spatially persistent: birds searching in the direction where they previously attended boats would encounter twice as many boats compared with following a random direction strategy. A large proportion of birds did not use this cue: across pairs of consecutive trips (n = 85), 51% of birds switched their foraging direction irrespective of previous boat encounters. Still, 15 birds (27%) were observed to closely approach (approx. 0.1-1 km) where they previously attended a boat while boats were no longer there. This is less than the distance expected by chance (approx. 10-100 km), based on permutation control procedures accounting for individual-specific spatial consistency, suggesting individuals could memorize where they encountered boats across consecutive trips. We conclude albatrosses were able to exploit predictive cues from recent boat encounters but most favoured alternative resources.

Young frigatebirds learn how to compensate for wind drift.

Compensating for wind drift can improve goalward flight efficiency in animal taxa, especially among those that rely on thermal soaring to travel large distances. Little is known, however, about how animals acquire this ability. The great frigatebird (Fregata minor) exemplifies the challenges of wind drift compensation because it lives a highly pelagic lifestyle, travelling very long distances over the open ocean but without the ability to land on water. Using GPS tracks from fledgling frigatebirds, we followed young frigatebirds from the moment of fledging to investigate whether wind drift compensation was learnt and, if so, what sensory inputs underpinned it. We found that the effect of wind drift reduced significantly with both experience and access to visual landmark cues. Further, we found that the effect of experience on wind drift compensation was more pronounced when birds were out of sight of land. Our results suggest that improvement in wind drift compensation is not solely the product of either physical maturation or general improvements in flight control. Instead, we believe it is likely that they reflect how frigatebirds learn to process sensory information so as to reduce wind drift and maintain a constant course during goalward movement.

The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins.

The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad-hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate-dependent-metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities.