STREAM-2: Half-Dose Tenecteplase or Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in Older Patients With ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: A Randomized, Open-Label Trial.

BACKGROUND: ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) guidelines recommend pharmaco-invasive treatment if timely primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is unavailable. Full-dose tenecteplase is associated with an increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage in older patients. Whether pharmaco-invasive treatment with half-dose tenecteplase is effective and safe in older patients with STEMI is unknown. METHODS: STREAM-2 (Strategic Reperfusion in Elderly Patients Early After Myocardial Infarction) was an investigator-initiated, open-label, randomized, multicenter study. Patients ≥60 years of age with ≥2 mm ST-segment elevation in 2 contiguous leads, unable to undergo primary PCI within 1 hour, were randomly assigned (2:1) to half-dose tenecteplase followed by coronary angiography and PCI (if indicated) 6 to 24 hours after randomization, or to primary PCI. Efficacy end points of primary interest were ST resolution and the 30-day composite of death, shock, heart failure, or reinfarction. Safety assessments included stroke and nonintracranial bleeding. RESULTS: Patients were assigned to pharmaco-invasive treatment (n=401) or primary PCI (n=203). Median times from randomization to tenecteplase or sheath insertion were 10 and 81 minutes, respectively. After last angiography, 85.2% of patients undergoing pharmaco-invasive treatment and 78.4% of patients undergoing primary PCI had ≥50% resolution of ST-segment elevation; their residual median sums of ST deviations were 4.5 versus 5.5 mm, respectively. Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction flow grade 3 at last angiography was ≈87% in both groups. The composite clinical end point occurred in 12.8% (51/400) of patients undergoing pharmaco-invasive treatment and 13.3% (27/203) of patients undergoing primary PCI (relative risk, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.62-1.48]). Six intracranial hemorrhages occurred in the pharmaco-invasive arm (1.5%): 3 were protocol violations (excess anticoagulation in 2 and uncontrolled hypertension in 1). No intracranial bleeding occurred in the primary PCI arm. The incidence of major nonintracranial bleeding was low in both groups (<1.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Halving the dose of tenecteplase in a pharmaco-invasive strategy in this early-presenting, older STEMI population was associated with electrocardiographic changes that were at least comparable to those after primary PCI. Similar clinical efficacy and angiographic end points occurred in both treatment groups. The risk of intracranial hemorrhage was higher with half-dose tenecteplase than with primary PCI. If timely PCI is unavailable, this pharmaco-invasive strategy is a reasonable alternative, provided that contraindications to fibrinolysis are observed and excess anticoagulation is avoided. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT02777580.

Comparing Analytical Methods for Composite End Points in Clinical Trials: Insights from the Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction Trial.

BACKGROUND: In VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction), participants with heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction, vericiguat decreased the primary composite outcome (time to first HF hospitalization [HFH] or cardiovascular death [CVD]) (897 events) compared with placebo (972 events) (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82-0.98; P = .02). In this prespecified secondary analysis, we applied the weighted composite end point (WCE) and the win ratio (WR) methods to provide complementary assessments of treatment effect. METHODS AND RESULTS: The WCE method estimated the mean HFH-adjusted survival based on prespecified weights from a Delphi panel of the VICTORIA executive committee and national leaders: mild (weight per event, 0.39), moderate (0.5), or severe (0.67) HFH, and CVD (1.0). The unmatched WR was estimated for the descending hierarchy of CVD, then recurrent HFH. The WCE used all 3412 primary clinical events: 875 severe HFH (vericiguat, 416/ placebo, 459), 1614 moderate HFH (767/847), 68 mild HFH (38/30), and 855 CVD (414/441). Improved HFH-adjusted survival occurred with vericiguat (mean 78.2% vs 75.6%, difference 2.4%, 95% CI, 1.7%-3.2%, P < .0001). Based on a comparison of 6,375,624 pairs, the WR of 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.24, P = .01) also indicated improved clinical outcomes with vericiguat. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the WCE and WR methods were consistent with the primary analysis of the time to first HFH or CVD. Although both WCE and WR assessed recurrent events, the WCE allowed inclusion of all recurrent events, insights on the severity of HFH events, and an absolute measure of the participant-treatment experience. This approach complements conventional assessment, better informing consumers of new therapeutics and future trial designs.

Assessment of Biomarkers of Myocardial injury, Inflammation, and Renal Function in Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction: The VICTORIA Biomarker Substudy.

BACKGROUND: Circulating biomarkers may be useful in understanding prognosis and treatment efficacy in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. In the VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction) trial, vericiguat, a soluble guanylate cyclase stimulator, decreased the primary outcome of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. We evaluated biomarkers of cardiac injury, inflammation, and renal function for associations with outcomes and vericiguat treatment effect. METHODS AND RESULTS: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), interleukin-6 (IL-6), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and cystatin C were measured at baseline and 16 weeks. Associations of biomarkers with the primary outcome and its components were estimated. Interaction with study treatment was tested. Changes in biomarkers over time were examined by study treatment. One or more biomarkers were measured in 4652 (92%) of 5050 participants at baseline and 4063 (81%) at 16 weeks. After adjustment, higher values of hs-cTnT, growth differentiation factor-15, and interleukin-6 were associated with the primary outcome, independent of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide. Higher hs-cTnT values were associated with a hazard ratio per log standard deviation of 1.21 (95% confidence interval 1.14-1.27). A treatment interaction with vericiguat was evident with hs-cTnT and cardiovascular death (P = .04), but not HF hospitalization (P = .38). All biomarkers except cystatin C decreased over 16 weeks and no relationship between treatment assignment and changes in biomarker levels was observed. CONCLUSIONS: hs-cTnT, growth differentiation factor-15, and interleukin-6 levels were associated with risk of the primary outcome in VICTORIA (Vericiguat Global Study in Subjects with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction). Uniquely, lower hs-cTnT was associated with a lower rate of cardiovascular death but not HF hospitalization after treatment with vericiguat.

The empirical estimate of the survival and variance using a weighted composite endpoint.

BACKGROUND: Composite endpoints for estimating treatment efficacy are routinely used in several therapeutic areas and have become complex in the number and types of component outcomes included. It is assumed that its components are of similar asperity and chronology between both treatment arms as well as uniform in magnitude of the treatment effect. However, these assumptions are rarely satisfied. Understanding this heterogeneity is important in developing a meaningful assessment of the treatment effect. METHODS: We developed the Weighted Composite Endpoint (WCE) method which uses weights derived from stakeholder values for each event type in the composite endpoint. The derivation for the product limit estimator and the variance of the estimate are presented. The method was then tested using data simulated from parameters based on a large cardiovascular trial. Variances from the estimated and traditional approach are compared through increasing sample size. RESULTS: The WCE method used all of the events through follow-up and generated a multiple recurrent event survival. The treatment effect was measured as the difference in mean survivals between two treatment arms and corresponding 95% confidence interval, providing a less conservative estimate of survival and variance, giving a higher survival with a narrower confidence interval compared to the traditional time-to-first-event analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The WCE method embraces the clinical texture of events types by incorporating stakeholder values as well as all events during follow-up. While the effective number of events is lower in the WCE analysis, the reduction in variance enhances the ability to detect a treatment effect in clinical trials.

Hemoglobin and Clinical Outcomes in the Vericiguat Global Study in Patients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction (VICTORIA).

BACKGROUND: In the VICTORIA trial (Vericiguat Global Study in Patients with Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction), anemia occurred more often in patients treated with vericiguat (7.6%) than with placebo (5.7%). We explored the association between vericiguat, randomization hemoglobin, development of anemia, and whether the benefit of vericiguat related to baseline hemoglobin. METHODS: Anemia was defined as hemoglobin <13.0 g/dL in men and <12.0 g/dL in women (World Health Organization Anemia). Adverse events reported as anemia were also evaluated. We assessed the risk-adjusted relationship between hemoglobin and hematocrit with the primary outcome (composite of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization) and the time-updated hemoglobin relationship to outcomes. RESULTS: At baseline, 1719 (35.7%) patients had World Health Organization anemia; median hemoglobin was 13.4 g/L (25th, 75th percentile: 12.1, 14.7 g/dL). At 16 weeks from randomization, 1643 patients had World Health Organization anemia (284 new for vericiguat and 219 for placebo), which occurred more often with vericiguat than placebo (P<0.001). After 16 weeks, no further decline in hemoglobin occurred over 96 weeks of follow-up and the ratio of hemoglobin/hematocrit remained constant. Overall, adverse event anemia occurred in 342 patients (7.1%). A lower hemoglobin was unrelated to the treatment benefit of vericiguat (versus placebo) on the primary outcome. In addition, analysis of time-updated hemoglobin revealed no association with the treatment effect of vericiguat (versus placebo) on the primary outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Anemia was common at randomization and lower hemoglobin was associated with a greater frequency of clinical events. Although vericiguat modestly lowered hemoglobin by 16 weeks, this effect did not further progress nor was it related to the treatment benefit of vericiguat. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov: Unique identifier: NCT02861534.

The Incidence and Prevalence of Cardiac Amyloidosis in a Large Community-Based Cohort in Alberta, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Despite the improved awareness of cardiac amyloidosis among clinicians, its incidence and prevalence is not well-described in a community setting. We sought to investigate the incidence and prevalence of cardiac amyloidosis in the community. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the adult population of Alberta, we examined 3 cohorts: (1) probable cases of cardiac amyloidosis: the presence of physician-assigned diagnosis of amyloidosis (International Classification of Diseases [ICD]-10 code E85; ICD-9 277.3) and 1 or more health care encounter for heart failure (HF) (ICD-10 I50; ICD-9 428); (2) possible cardiac amyloidosis: the presence of clinical phenotypes suggestive of amyloidosis; and (3) a comparator HF cohort without amyloidosis. Between 2004 and 2018, 982 of the 145,329 patients with HF were identified as probable cardiac amyloidosis. During the same period, the incidence rates of probable cardiac amyloidosis increased from 1.38 to 3.69 per 100,000 person-years and the prevalence rates increased from 3.42 to 14.85 per 100,000 person-years (Ptrend < .0001). Patients with probable cardiac amyloidosis were more likely to be male, have a higher comorbidity burden, greater health care use, and poorer outcomes as compared with patients with HF without amyloidosis. A much larger group of patients was identified as possible cardiac amyloidosis (n = 46,255), with similar increase in prevalence from 2004 to 2018 (from 416 to 850 per 100,000 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and prevalence of cardiac amyloidosis has increased over the last decade. Given the advent of new therapies for cardiac amyloidosis and considering their high cost, it is imperative to devise strategies to screen, identify, and track patients with cardiac amyloidosis from administrative databases.

Novel multi-marker proteomics in phenotypically matched patients with ST-segment myocardial infarction: association with clinical outcomes.

Early prediction of significant morbidity or mortality in patients with acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) represents an unmet clinical need. In phenotypically matched population of 139 STEMI patients (72 cases, 67 controls) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention, we explored associations between a 24-h relative change from baseline in the concentration of 91 novel biomarkers and the composite outcome of death, heart failure, or shock within 90 days. Additionally, we used random forest models to predict the 90-day outcomes. After adjustment for false discovery rate, the 90-day composite was significantly associated with concentration changes in 14 biomarkers involved in various pathophysiologic processes including: myocardial fibrosis/remodeling (collagen alpha-1, cathepsin Z, metalloproteinase inhibitor 4, protein tyrosine phosphatase subunits), inflammation, angiogenesis and signaling (interleukin 1 and 2 subunits, growth differentiation factor 15, galectin 4, trefoil factor 3), bone/mineral metabolism (osteoprotegerin, matrix extracellular phosphoglycoprotein and tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase), thrombosis (tissue factor pathway inhibitor) and cholesterol metabolism (LDL-receptor). Random forest models suggested an independent association when inflammatory markers are included in models predicting the outcomes within 90 days. Substantial heterogeneity is apparent in the early proteomic responses among patients with acutely reperfused STEMI patients who develop death, heart failure or shock within 90 days. These findings suggest the need to consider synergistic multi-biomarker strategies for risk stratification and to inform future development of novel post-myocardial infarction therapies.

Is There Any Interaction Between Sex and Renal Function Change During Hospital Stay in Patients Hospitalized With Acute Heart Failure?

BACKGROUND: Renal dysfunction is a strong predictor of outcomes in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, less is known about how sex may influence the prognostic import of renal function in AHF. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a post hoc analysis of the ASCEND-HF trial including 5377 patients with AHF (33% female), patients were categorized into 3 groups based on the changes in renal function during their hospital stay. Worsening, stable, and improving renal functions were defined as a ≥20% decrease, a <20% change, and a ≥20% increase in the estimated glomerular filtration rate, respectively. The primary outcome was the composite of 30-day all-cause mortality or HF rehospitalization. The median baseline and discharge estimated glomerular filtration rate were 58.4 and 56.9 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. Worsening, stable, and improving renal function was observed in 31.9%, 63.2, and 4.9% of patients, respectively. Worsening renal function was associated with adverse outcomes at 30 days (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.22-1.76). This association existed in both males and females (aHR 1.42 and aHR 1.56, respectively, both P < .01). There was an interaction between renal function changes and sex (P = .025), because improving renal function was associated with better outcomes in men (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.13-0.66) as compared with women (aHR 1.18, 95% CI 0.59-2.35). There was no interaction between the ejection fraction and renal function in association with subsequent outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Irrespective of sex, worsening renal function was associated with poorer outcomes at 30 days in patients with AHF. More studies are warranted to further delineate the possible sex differences in this setting.

Computing the polytomous discrimination index.

Polytomous regression models generalize logistic models for the case of a categorical outcome variable with more than two distinct categories. These models are currently used in clinical research, and it is essential to measure their abilities to distinguish between the categories of the outcome. In 2012, van Calster et al proposed the polytomous discrimination index (PDI) as an extension of the binary discrimination c-statistic to unordered polytomous regression. The PDI is a summary of the simultaneous discrimination between all outcome categories. Previous implementations of the PDI are not capable of running on "big data." This article shows that the PDI formula can be manipulated to depend only on the distributions of the predicted probabilities evaluated for each outcome category and within each observed level of the outcome, which substantially improves the computation time. We present a SAS macro and R function that can rapidly evaluate the PDI and its components. The routines are evaluated on several simulated datasets after varying the number of categories of the outcome and size of the data and two real-world large administrative health datasets. We compare PDI with two other discrimination indices: M-index and hypervolume under the manifold (HUM) on simulated examples. We describe situations where the PDI and HUM, indices based on multiple comparisons, are superior to the M-index, an index based on pairwise comparisons, to detect predictions that are no different than random selection or erroneous due to incorrect ranking.

Association of obesity with cardiovascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease: Insights from TECOS.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether obesity affects outcomes among those with T2D and atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) remains uncertain. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and ASCVD outcomes among TECOS participants with T2D and ASCVD. METHODS: BMI categories were defined as underweight/normal weight (BMI <25 kg/m2), overweight (25-29.9 kg/m2), obese class I (30-34.9 kg/m2), obese class II (35-39.9 kg/m2), and obese class III (≥ 40 kg/m2). Asian-specific BMI categories were applied to Asian participants. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations between baseline BMI and a composite CV outcome (CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina). RESULTS: For 14,534 TECOS patients with available BMI, mean age was 65.5 years; 29.3% were female, 32.0% non-White, and 23.1% insulin-treated, with median 3 years' follow-up. At baseline, 11.6% (n = 1686) were underweight/normal weight, 38.1% (n = 5532) overweight, 32.2% (n = 4683) obese class I, 12.4% (n = 1806) obese class II, and 5.7% (n = 827) obese class III. The composite CV outcome occurred in 11.4% (n = 1663) of participants; the outcome risk was lower, compared with under/normal weight, in overweight (HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.71-0.98) and obese class I (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67-0.93) individuals. Obesity was not associated with worse glycemic control. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of TECOS participants with ASCVD and T2D were overweight or obese, yet overweight or obese class I individuals had lower CV risk than those who were under/normal weight. These results suggest the presence of an obesity paradox, but this paradox may reflect an epidemiological artifact rather than a true negative association between normal weight and clinical outcomes.

High-throughput targeted proteomics discovery approach and spontaneous reperfusion in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Although spontaneous reperfusion (SR) prior to primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) is associated with improved outcomes, its pathophysiology remains unclear. The objective of the study was to explore associations between SR in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) using a multimarker cardiovascular proteins strategy METHODS: We evaluated STEMI patients from the Assessment of Pexelizumab in Acute Myocardial Infarction trial treated with pPCI within 6 hours from symptom onset. SR was core laboratory-defined as pre-PCI Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction flow 2 or 3. Ninety-one cardiovascular disease-related serum biomarkers drawn prior to PCI were analyzed using a high-throughput "targeted discovery" panel. Expression levels for individual biomarkers were compared between patients with/without SR. A hierarchical clustering method of biomarkers identified clusters of biomarkers that differentiated the 2 groups. Associations between individual biomarkers and clusters with SR were further evaluated by multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 683 patients studied, 290 had spontaneous reperfusion; those with compared to without SR were more likely noninferior STEMI and had lower clinical acuity and lower baseline levels of troponin and creatine kinase. SR was associated with a lower occurrence of 90-day composite of death, heart failure, or cardiogenic shock. Fifty-two of 91 individual biomarkers were significantly univariably associated with SR. Forty-five remained significant with adjustment for false discovery rate. Using cluster analysis, 26 biomarkers clusters were identified, explaining 72% of total covariance, and 13 biomarker clusters were significantly associated with SR after multivariable adjustment. SR was associated with higher mean expression levels of proteins in all 13 clusters. The cluster most strongly associated with SR consisted of novel proteins across various distinct, yet interlinked, pathobiological processes (kallikrein-6, matrix extracellular phosphoglycoprotein, matrix mettaloproteinaise-3, and elafin). CONCLUSIONS: Spontaneous reperfusion prior to pPCI in STEMI was associated with a lower risk of adverse clinical events. These exploratory data from a targeted discovery proteomics platform identifies novel proteins across diverse, yet complementary, pathobiological axes that show promise in providing mechanistic insights into spontaneous reperfusion in STEMI. CONDENSED ABSTRACT: Spontaneous reperfusion has been established with improved STEMI outcomes, yet its pathobiology is unclear and appears to involve diverse physiological processes. Using a 91-biomarker high-throughput proteomics platform, we studied 683 STEMI patients in the APEX AMI trial (290 had core laboratory-adjudicated pre-PCI TIMI 2/3 flow) and identified 52 proteins that univariably associate with spontaneous reperfusion. Cluster analysis identified 26 biomarker clusters (explaining 72% of total variance), 13 of which, after multivariable adjustment, were significantly associated with spontaneous reperfusion. Four proteins (kallikrein-6, matrix extracellular phosphoglycoprotein, matrix mettaloproteinaise-3, and elafin) across diverse, yet complementary, pathways appear to be associated most strongly with spontaneous reperfusion.

Associations between ß-blocker therapy and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with diabetes and established cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: The effects of ß-blocker therapy in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) are unclear. We sought to evaluate associations between ß-blocker use in T2D with ASCVD and cardiovascular (CV) outcomes. METHODS: In patients with T2D and ASCVD enrolled in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS), an inverse probability of treatment-weighted Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the association between baseline ß-blocker therapy (at randomization) and the primary CV composite (defined as CV death, non-fatal myocardial infarction [MI], non-fatal stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina), including in subgroups with prior MI and heart failure (HF); other outcomes evaluated included individual components of the primary composite, hospitalization for HF, and severe hypoglycemic events. RESULTS: Of the 14,671 patients randomized, 9322 (64%) were on a ß-blocker at baseline; these patients were more likely to have prior MI or HF. Over a median 3.0 (25th, 75th percentile: 2.2, 3.6) years, the risk of the primary CV composite was significantly higher with baseline ß-blocker use versus no ß-blocker use (4.5 vs. 3.4 events/100-patient years, adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.29); no significant interaction was noted for patients with versus without prior MI or HF. Baseline ß-blocker use was not associated with risks for severe hypoglycemic events (HR 1.14, 95% CI 0.88-1.48). CONCLUSIONS: In this observational analysis of T2D and ASCVD, baseline ß-blocker use was not associated with risks for severe hypoglycemia yet also was not associated with CV risk reduction over 3 years of follow-up, supporting a randomized examination of chronic ß-blocker therapy in this patient population. (TECOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00790205).

Titration and Tolerability of Sacubitril/Valsartan for Patients With Heart Failure in Clinical Practice.

Little is known about the dosing and tolerability of sacubitril/valsartan (LCZ696; Entresto, Quebec, Canada) in a nonclinical trial population. This study was conducted to evaluate the use and tolerability of sacubitril/valsartan in patients followed at a multidisciplinary heart failure (HF) clinic. We performed a retrospective chart review of 126 patients with HF, initiated on sacubitril/valsartan, and seen at a specialty HF clinic between August 1, 2015, and August 1, 2017. We defined the target dose of sacubitril/valsartan as 200 mg twice a day. At baseline, median age was 67 years, 77% were men, median ejection fraction was 29%, and 86.5% of patients had symptoms of New York Heart Association class ≥II. Within 6 months of being transitioned onto sacubitril/valsartan therapy, 27.2% achieved the target dose of 200 mg twice a day, 40.8% achieved the target dose of 100 mg twice a day, and 32.0% achieved the target dose of 50 mg twice a day. The main reasons for not achieving target dose within 6 months included slower uptitration of therapy than in the trial (n = 41, 54.7%), a decrease in systolic blood pressure (n = 19, 25.3%), not completing blood work (n = 3, 4%), and patient noncompliance (n = 3, 4%). Overall, achievement of sacubitril/valsartan target doses was modest in a tertiary HF clinic, limited by various factors such as side effects and patients' medication noncompliance. Implementation of patient and clinician support pathways may improve uptake, uptitration, and maintenance of evidence-based doses in clinical practice.

Composite End Points in Clinical Research: A Time for Reappraisal.

Advances in cardiovascular medicine fueled by innovative clinical trials have dramatically improved the lives of patients worldwide. Commensurate with this progress has been a decline in morbid and mortal events. Accordingly, an increased propensity to collate patient outcomes in clinical trials has emerged that combines death and nonfatal complications into a single composite event. Despite the acknowledged benefits in trial efficiency from such an approach, this method assumes uniform directionality of each component, does not distinguish the relative clinical significance of each, and counts only the first occurrence of any event in the final tally within a conventional time to first event analysis. In this article, we evaluate the criticisms that have been leveled at this approach and provide an overview of recently published phase III cardiovascular trials using primary composite end points. We then explore what to anticipate from the large cohort of as-yet unpublished clinical trials in this arena. Last, we propose a variety of novel approaches that use composite end points and suggest a path forward to enhancing their use in future clinical trials.

Characterization of hemodynamically stable acute heart failure patients requiring a critical care unit admission: Derivation, validation, and refinement of a risk score.

BACKGROUND: Most patients with acute heart failure (AHF) admitted to critical care units (CCUs) are low acuity and do not require CCU-specific therapies, suggesting that they could be managed in a lower-cost ward environment. This study identified the predictors of clinical events and the need for CCU-specific therapies in patients with AHF. METHODS: Model derivation was performed using data from patients in the ASCEND-HF trial cohort (n=7,141), and the Acute Heart Failure Emergency Management community-based registry (n=666) was used to externally validate the model and to test the incremental prognostic utility of 4 variables (heart failure etiology, troponin, B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP], ejection fraction) using net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement. The primary outcome was an in-hospital composite of the requirement for CCU-specific therapies or clinical events. RESULTS: The primary composite outcome occurred in 545 (11.4%) derivation cohort participants (n=4,767) and 7 variables were predictors of the primary composite outcome: body mass index, chronic respiratory disease, respiratory rate, resting dyspnea, hemoglobin, sodium, and blood urea nitrogen (c index=0.633, Hosmer-Lemeshow P=.823). In the validation cohort (n=666), 87 (13.1%) events occurred (c index=0.629, Hosmer-Lemeshow P=.386) and adding ischemic heart failure, troponin, and B-type natriuretic peptide improved model performance (net reclassification index 0.79, 95% CI 0.046-0.512; integrated discrimination improvement 0.014, 95% CI 0.005-0.0238). The final 10-variable clinical prediction model demonstrated modest discrimination (c index=0.702) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P=.547). CONCLUSIONS: We derived, validated, and improved upon a clinical prediction model in an international trial and a community-based cohort of AHF. The model has modest discrimination; however, these findings deserve further exploration because they may provide a more accurate means of triaging level of care for patients with AHF who need admission.

Sitagliptin and risk of fractures in type 2 diabetes: Results from the TECOS trial.

AIM: To examine fracture incidence among participants in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data from 14 671 participants in the TECOS study who were randomized double-blind to sitagliptin (n = 7332) or placebo (n = 7339). Cumulative fracture incidence rates were calculated and their association with study treatment assignment was examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: The baseline mean (standard deviation) participant age was 65.5 (8.0) years, diabetes duration was 11.6 (8.1) years and glycated haemoglobin level was 7.2 (0.5)% [55.2 (5.5) mmol/mol], and 29.3% of participants were women and 32.1% were non-white. During 43 222 person-years' follow-up, 375 (2.6%; 8.7 per 1000 person-years) had a fracture; 146 were major osteoporotic fractures (hip, n = 34; upper extremity, n = 81; and clinical spine, n = 31). Adjusted analyses showed fracture risk increased independently with older age (P < .001), female sex (P < .001), white race (P < .001), lower diastolic blood pressure (P < .001) and diabetic neuropathy (P = .003). Sitagliptin, compared with placebo, was not associated with a higher fracture risk [189 vs 186 incident fractures: unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 1.23, P = .944; adjusted HR 1.03, P = .745], major osteoporotic fractures (P = .673) or hip fractures (P = .761). Insulin therapy was associated with a higher fracture risk (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.02-1.91; P = .035), and metformin with a lower risk (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.59-0.98; P = .035). CONCLUSION: Fractures were common among people with diabetes in the TECOS study, but were not related to sitagliptin therapy. Insulin and metformin treatment were associated with higher and lower fracture risks, respectively.

Arterial access site and outcomes in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention with and without vorapaxar.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated outcomes associated with transradial vs. transfemoral approaches and vorapaxar in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the TRACER trial. BACKGROUND: Vorapaxar reduces ischemic events but increases the risk of major bleeding. METHODS: We compared 30-day and 2-year major adverse cardiac events (MACE: cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, recurrent ischemia with rehospitalization, and urgent coronary revascularization) and noncoronary artery bypass graft (CABG)-related bleedings in 2,192 transradial and 4,880 transfemoral patients undergoing PCI after adjusting for confounding variables, including propensity for transradial access. RESULTS: Overall, 30-day GUSTO moderate/severe and non-CABG TIMI major/minor bleeding occurred less frequently in transradial (0.9% vs. 2.0%, P = 0.001) vs. transfemoral (1.1% vs. 2.5%, P = 0.005) patients. A similar reduction was seen at 2 years (3.3% vs. 4.7%, P = 0.008; 3.3% vs. 4.9%, P < 0.001, respectively). Transradial was associated with an increased risk of ischemic events at 30 days (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.11-1.72; P = 0.004), driven primarily by increased periprocedural myocardial infarctions. At 2 years, rates of MACE were comparable (HR 1.14, 95% CI 0.98-1.33; P = 0.096). Although bleeding rates were higher with vorapaxar in transfemoral vs. transradial patients, there was no significant treatment interaction. Also, the access site did not modulate the association between vorapaxar and MACE. CONCLUSIONS: Transradial access was associated with lower bleeding rates and similar long-term ischemic outcomes, suggesting transradial access is safer than transfemoral access among ACS patients receiving potent antiplatelet therapies. Because of the nonrandomized allocation of arterial access, these results should be considered exploratory. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Applying novel methods to assess clinical outcomes: insights from the TRILOGY ACS trial.

AIMS: Several methods provide new insights into understanding clinical trial composite endpoints, using both conventional and novel methods. The TRILOGY ACS trial is used as a contemporary example to prospectively compare these methods side by side. METHODS AND RESULTS: The traditional time-to-first-event, Andersen-Gill recurrent events method, win ratio, and a weighted composite endpoint (WCE) are compared using the randomized, active-control TRILOGY ACS trial. This trial had a neutral result and randomized 9326 patients managed without coronary revascularization within 10 days of their acute coronary syndrome to receive either prasugrel or clopidogrel and followed them for up to 30 months. The traditional composite, win ratio, and WCE demonstrated no significant survival advantage for prasugrel, whereas the Andersen-Gill method demonstrated a statistical advantage for prasugrel [hazard ratio (HR), 0.86 (95% CI, 0.72-0.97)]. The traditional composite used 73% of total patient events; 40% of these were derived from the death events. The win ratio used 66% of total events; deaths comprised 57% of these. Both Andersen-Gill and WCE methods used all events in all participants; however, with the Andersen-Gill method, death comprised 41% of the proportion of events, whereas with the WCE method, death comprised 64% of events. CONCLUSION: This study addresses the relative efficiency of various methods for assessing clinical trial events comprising the composite endpoint. The methods accounting for all events, in particular those incorporating their clinical relevance, appear most advantageous, and may be useful in interpreting future trials. This clinical and statistical advantage is especially evident with long-term follow-up where multiple non-fatal events are more common. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00699998.

Reduced dose tenecteplase and outcomes in elderly ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients: Insights from the STrategic Reperfusion Early After Myocardial infarction trial.

BACKGROUND: Elderly patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) have worse outcomes and a greater risk of intracranial bleeding than nonelderly patients. Baseline characteristics, clinical outcomes, and the relationship of the tenecteplase (TNK) dose reduction to the efficacy, safety, and electrocardiographic indicators of reperfusion efficacy were evaluated in STEMI patients ≥75 years. METHODS: The STREAM trial evaluated early presenting STEMI patients who could not undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention within 1 hour of first medical contact. Because of excess intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in patients ≥75 years, the dose of TNK was reduced by 50%. RESULTS: Before dose amendment, there were 3 (7.1%) of 42 elderly patients with ICH; 2 of these were fatal, whereas no ICH occurred in the 93 elderly patients who received half-dose TNK postamendment. The median extent of ST-segment elevation resolution (≥50%) and proportion of patients with ≥2 mm in the electrocardiogram lead with greatest ST-segment elevation was comparable in elderly patients preamendment and postamendment (63.2% vs 56.0% and 43.6% vs 40.0%, respectively). Patients requiring rescue coronary intervention after TNK was also similar (42.9% vs 44.1%). The primary composite end point (30-day all-cause death, cardiogenic shock, congestive heart failure, and reinfarction) was 31.0% before versus 24.7% postamendment. CONCLUSIONS: Our data, from a modest-sized population of elderly STEMI patients, indicate that half-dose TNK reduces the likelihood of ICH without compromising reperfusion efficacy. These observations are hypothesis generating and warrant further confirmation in randomized clinical trials in the elderly.

Association of metabolic syndrome and its individual components with outcomes among patients with high-risk non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes.

BACKGROUND: The relationship of metabolic syndrome and its individual components (obesity, hypertension, glucose intolerance, high triglycerides, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) with 1-year mortality in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE ACS) patients is not known. METHODS: The association of metabolic syndrome (and its individual components) with all-cause mortality within 1 year was assessed in NSTE ACS patients enrolled in the EARLY ACS trial. Adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% CIs are reported. RESULTS: Of 9,406 patients, 2,596 (27.6%) had metabolic syndrome. Compared with those without metabolic syndrome, patients with this syndrome were younger, were more often female, and had a higher prevalence of comorbid conditions and higher-risk presenting features. Metabolic syndrome was not associated with increased 1-year mortality (HR 1.20, 95% CI 0.97-1.47; P = .09). The risk of 1-year mortality varied across the individual components: high-density lipoprotein <40 mg/dL (men)/<50 mg/dL (women; or dyslipidemia) was associated with higher risk (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.15-2.02), and triglycerides >150 mg/dL (or dyslipidemia) was associated with lower risk (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.54-0.81), whereas the other components (ie, body mass index >30 kg/m(2), fasting plasma glucose >100 mg/dL or diabetes, systolic blood pressure >130 mm Hg or diastolic >85 mm Hg [or hypertension]) were associated with neutral risk of this event. CONCLUSIONS: The individual components of metabolic syndrome had varying associations with 1-year mortality, and as an integrated diagnosis, metabolic syndrome was not significantly associated with 1-year mortality. Thus, patient case-mix of the studied NSTE ACS population may influence the observed relationship of metabolic syndrome with subsequent cardiovascular events.