Development and Validation of a Long-Term Incident Heart Failure Risk Model.

BACKGROUND: Average lifetime risk for heart failure (HF) is high but differs significantly across and within sex-race groups. No models for estimating long-term risk for HF exist, which would allow for earlier identification and interventions in high-risk subsets. The authors aim to derive 30-year HF risk equations. METHODS: Adults between the ages of 20 to 59 years and free of cardiovascular disease at baseline from 5 population-based cohorts were included. Among 24 838 participants (55% women, 25% Black based on self-report), follow-up consisted of 599 551 person-years. Sex- and race-specific 30-year HF risk equations were derived and validated accounting for competing risk of non-HF death. HF was based on a clinical diagnosis. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using 10-fold cross-validation. Finally, the model was applied to varying risk factor patterns for systematic examination. RESULTS: The rate of incident HF was 4.0 per 1000 person-years. Harrell C statistics were 0.82 (0.80-0.83) and 0.84 (0.82-0.85) in White and Black men and 0.84 (0.82-0.85) and 0.85 (0.83-0.87) in White and Black women, respectively. Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration was acceptable, with χ2 <30 in all subgroups. Risk estimation varied across sex-race groups: for example, in an average 40-year-old nonsmoker with an untreated systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and body mass index of 30 kg/m2, risk was estimated to be 22.8% in a Black man, 13.7% in a White man, 13.0% in a Black woman, and 12.1% in a White woman. CONCLUSIONS: Sex- and race-specific equations for prediction of long-term risk of HF demonstrated high discrimination and adequate calibration.

Preparative Electrophoresis for HDL Particle Size Separation and Intact-Mass Apolipoprotein Proteoform Analysis.

The most abundant proteins on high-density lipoproteins (HDLs), apolipoproteins A-I (APOA1) and A-II (APOA2), are determinants of HDL function with 15 and 9 proteoforms (chemical-structure variants), respectively. The relative abundance of these proteoforms in human serum is associated with HDL cholesterol efflux capacity, and cholesterol content. However, the association between proteoform concentrations and HDL size is unknown. We employed a novel native-gel electrophoresis technique, clear native gel-eluted liquid fraction entrapment electrophoresis (CN-GELFrEE) paired with mass spectrometry of intact proteins to investigate this association. Pooled serum was fractionated using acrylamide gels of lengths 8 and 25 cm. Western blotting determined molecular diameter and intact-mass spectrometry determined proteoform profiles of each fraction. The 8- and 25 cm experiments generated 19 and 36 differently sized HDL fractions, respectively. The proteoform distribution varied across size. Fatty-acylated APOA1 proteoforms were associated with larger HDL sizes (Pearson's R = 0.94, p = 4 × 10-7) and were approximately four times more abundant in particles larger than 9.6 nm than in total serum; HDL-unbound APOA1 was acylation-free and contained the pro-peptide proAPOA1. APOA2 proteoform abundance was similar across HDL sizes. Our results establish CN-GELFrEE as an effective lipid-particle separation technique and suggest that acylated proteoforms of APOA1 are associated with larger HDL particles.

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease or Heart Failure: First Cardiovascular Event in Adults With Prediabetes and Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Individuals with prediabetes and diabetes are at increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and heart failure (HF). Whether ASCVD or HF is more likely to occur first in these populations within different race-sex groups is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the competing risk for the first cardiovascular event by subtype in Black and white men and women with prediabetes and diabetes. METHODS: Individual-level data from adults without ASCVD or HF were pooled from 6 population-based cohorts. We estimated the competing cumulative incidences of ASCVD, HF and noncardiovascular death as the first event in middle-aged (40-59 years) and older (60-79 years) adults, stratified by race and sex, with normal fasting plasma glucose (FPG < 100 mg/dL), prediabetes (FPG 100-125 mg/dL) and diabetes (FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL or on antihyperglycemic agents) at baseline. Within each race-sex group, we estimated risk the adjusted hazard ratio of ASCVD, HF and noncardiovascular death in adults with prediabetes and diabetes relative to adults with normoglycemia after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: In 40,117 participants with 638,910 person-years of follow-up, 5781 cases of incident ASCVD and 3179 cases of incident HF occurred. In middle-aged adults with diabetes, competing cumulative incidence of ASCVD as a first event was higher than HF in white men (35.4% vs 11.6%), Black men (31.6% vs 15.1%) and white women (24.3% vs 17.2%) but not in Black women (26.4% vs 28.4%). Within each group, the adjusted hazard ratio of ASCVD and HF was significantly higher in adults with diabetes than in adults with normal FPG levels. Findings were largely similar in middle-aged adults with prediabetes and older adults with prediabetes or diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Black women with diabetes are more likely to develop HF as their first CVD event, whereas individuals with diabetes from other race-sex groups are more likely to present first with ASCVD. These results can inform the tailoring of primary prevention therapies for either HF- or ASCVD-specific pathways based on individual-level risk.

Comparison of State-of-the-Art Neural Network Survival Models with the Pooled Cohort Equations for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction.

BACKGROUND: The Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) are race- and sex-specific Cox proportional hazards (PH)-based models used for 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk prediction with acceptable discrimination. In recent years, neural network models have gained increasing popularity with their success in image recognition and text classification. Various survival neural network models have been proposed by combining survival analysis and neural network architecture to take advantage of the strengths from both. However, the performance of these survival neural network models compared to each other and to PCEs in ASCVD prediction is unknown. METHODS: In this study, we used 6 cohorts from the Lifetime Risk Pooling Project (with 5 cohorts as training/internal validation and one cohort as external validation) and compared the performance of the PCEs in 10-year ASCVD risk prediction with an all two-way interactions Cox PH model (Cox PH-TWI) and three state-of-the-art neural network survival models including Nnet-survival, Deepsurv, and Cox-nnet. For all the models, we used the same 7 covariates as used in the PCEs. We fitted each of the aforementioned models in white females, white males, black females, and black males, respectively. We evaluated models' internal and external discrimination power and calibration. RESULTS: The training/internal validation sample comprised 23216 individuals. The average age at baseline was 57.8 years old (SD = 9.6); 16% developed ASCVD during average follow-up of 10.50 (SD = 3.02) years. Based on 10 × 10 cross-validation, the method that had the highest C-statistics was Deepsurv (0.7371) for white males, Deepsurv and Cox PH-TWI (0.7972) for white females, PCE (0.6981) for black males, and Deepsurv (0.7886) for black females. In the external validation dataset, Deepsurv (0.7032), Cox-nnet (0.7282), PCE (0.6811), and Deepsurv (0.7316) had the highest C-statistics for white male, white female, black male, and black female population, respectively. Calibration plots showed that in 10 × 10 validation, all models had good calibration in all race and sex groups. In external validation, all models overestimated the risk for 10-year ASCVD. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated the use of the state-of-the-art neural network survival models in ASCVD risk prediction. Neural network survival models had similar if not superior discrimination and calibration compared to PCEs.

Resolution of apolipoprotein A1 and A2 proteoforms: their cardiometabolic correlates and implications for future research.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: A 'proteoform' is defined as one specific protein structural form that results from the combination of allelic variation, alternative RNA splicing, and/or posttranslational modifications (PTMs) in specific locations on the amino acid backbone. Apolipoproteins A1 and A2 are highly abundant apolipoproteins that mediate HDL structure and function. ApoA1 and apoA2 are known to undergo PTMs, which results in multiple proteoforms. However, the catalogue of apoA1 and apoA2 proteoforms as well as their associations with cardiometabolic health characteristics has not been described until recently. In this brief review, we discuss recent efforts to catalogue the spectrum of apoA1 and apoA2 proteoforms, to understand the relationships between the relative abundance of these proteoforms with cardiometabolic phenotypic characteristics, and we will discuss the implications of these findings to future research. RECENT FINDINGS: A broad spectrum of apoA1 and apoA2 proteoforms has been characterized. Although, the types of apoA1 and A2 proteoforms are consistent across individuals, the relative abundances of proteoforms can vary substantially between individuals. Proteoform-specific associations with cardiometabolic characteristics in humans, independent of absolute apolipoprotein abundance, have been described. These recent findings suggest multiple levels of protein structural variation that arise from known and unknown metabolic pathways may be important markers or mediators of cardiometabolic health. SUMMARY: Understanding the associations between apolipoprotein proteoforms and phenotype may lead to enhanced understanding of how apolipoproteins mediate lipid metabolism and affect atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk, which may lead to discovery of novel markers of risk and/or key mechanistic insights that may drive further druggable targets for modifying lipid metabolism and reducing ASCVD risk.

Analysis of apoB Concentrations Across Early Adulthood and Predictors for Rates of Change Using CARDIA Study Data.

The cumulative exposure to apolipoprotein B (apoB)-containing lipoproteins in the blood during early adult life is a central determinant of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. To date, the patterns and rates of change in apoB through early adult life have not been described. Here, we used NMR to measure apoB concentrations in up to 3055 Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study participants who attended the years 2 (Y2), 7 (Y7), 15 (Y15), 20 (Y20), and 30 (Y30) exams. We examined individual-level spaghetti plots of apoB change, and we calculated average annualized rate of apoB concentration change during follow-up. We used multivariable linear regression models to assess the associations between CARDIA participant characteristics and annualized rates of apoB change. Male sex, higher measures of adiposity, lower HDL-C, lower Healthy Eating Index, and higher blood pressures were observed more commonly in individuals with higher apoB level at Y2 and Y20. Inter- and intra-individual variation in apoB concentration over time was substantial-while the mean (SD) rate of change was 0.52 (1.0) mg/dl/year, the range of annualized rates of change was -6.26 to +9.21 mg/dl/year. At baseline, lower first apoB measurement, female sex, White race, lower BMI, and current tobacco use were associated with apoB increase. We conclude that the significant variance in apoB level over time and the modest association between baseline measures and rates of apoB change suggest that the ability to predict an individual's future apoB serum concentrations, and thus their cumulative apoB exposure, after a one-time assessment in young adulthood is low.

Development and Validation of a Large Synthetic Cohort for the Study of Cardiovascular Health Across the Life Span.

We developed and validated a synthetic cohort approach to examine numbers of cardiovascular risk factors (CRFs) and adverse clinical events, including incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality, across the life span from ages 20 years to 90 years. The current analysis included 40,875 participants from 7 large, population-based longitudinal epidemiologic studies (1948-2016). On the basis of a joint multilevel imputation model, we multiply imputed each participant's life-span numbers of CRFs and events using available records. To validate the imputed values, we partially removed the observed data and then compared the imputed and observed values. The complete life-span synthetic data set reflected the original observed data trends well. In our validation sample, the distributions of imputed CRFs and events were close to the observed distributions but with less variability. Bland-Altman plots indicated that there was a slightly negative trend in general, and the agreement bias was relatively small for the continuous CRFs. The hypothetical linear regression model suggested that the relationships between the CRFs and events were preserved in the imputed data set. This approach generated valid estimates of CRFs and events across the life span for African-American and White participants. The synthetic cohort may be sufficiently accurate to be useful in assessing the origins and timing of accumulating cardiovascular risk that can inform efforts to avoid cardiovascular disease development.

Association of Midlife Cardiovascular Risk Factors With the Risk of Heart Failure Subtypes Later in Life.

BACKGROUND: Independent associations between cardiovascular risk factor exposures during midlife and later life development of heart failure (HF) with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) versus reduced EF (HFrEF) have not been previously studied. METHODS: We pooled data from 4 US cohort studies (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, Cardiovascular Health, Health , Aging and Body Composition, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) and imputed annual risk factor trajectories for body mass index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and glucose starting from age 40 years. Time-weighted average exposures to each risk factor during midlife and later life were calculated and analyzed for associations with the development of HFpEF or HFrEF. RESULTS: A total of 23,861 participants were included (mean age at first in-person visit, 61.8 ±1 0.2 years; 56.6% female). During a median follow-up of 12 years, there were 3666 incident HF events, of which 51% had EF measured, including 934 with HFpEF and 739 with HFrEF. A high midlife systolic blood pressure and low midlife high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were associated with HFrEF, and a high midlife body mass index, systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, and glucose were associated with HFpEF. After adjusting for later life exposures, only midlife pulse pressure remained independently associated with HFpEF. CONCLUSIONS: Midlife exposure to cardiovascular risk factors are differentially associated with HFrEF and HFpEF later in life. Having a higher pulse pressure during midlife is associated with a greater risk for HFpEF but not HFrEF, independent of later life exposures.

Association of fasting glucose with lifetime risk of incident heart failure: the Lifetime Risk Pooling Project.

BACKGROUND: Given the rising prevalence of dysglycemia and disparities in heart failure (HF) burden, we determined race- and sex-specific lifetime risk of HF across the spectrum of fasting plasma glucose (FPG). METHODS: Individual-level data from adults without baseline HF was pooled from 6 population-based cohorts. Modified Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox models adjusted for the competing risk of death, and Irwin's restricted mean were used to estimate the lifetime risk, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), and years lived free from HF in middle-aged (40-59 years) and older (60-79 years) adults with FPG < 100 mg/dL, prediabetes (FPG 100-125 mg/dL) and diabetes (FPG ≥ 126 mg/dL or on antihyperglycemic agents) across race-sex groups. RESULTS: In 40,117 participants with 638,910 person-years of follow-up, 4846 cases of incident HF occurred. The lifetime risk of HF was significantly higher among middle-aged White adults and Black women with prediabetes (range: 6.1% [95% CI 4.8%, 7.4%] to 10.8% [95% CI 8.3%, 13.4%]) compared with normoglycemic adults (range: 3.5% [95% CI 3.0%, 4.1%] to 6.5% [95% CI 4.9%, 8.1%]). Middle-aged Black women with diabetes had the highest lifetime risk (32.4% [95% CI 26.0%, 38.7%]) and aHR (4.0 [95% CI 3.0, 5.4]) for HF across race-sex groups. Middle-aged adults with prediabetes and diabetes lived on average 0.9-1.6 and 4.1-6.0 fewer years free from HF, respectively. Findings were similar in older adults except older Black women with prediabetes did not have a higher lifetime risk of HF. CONCLUSIONS: Prediabetes was associated with higher lifetime risk of HF in middle-aged White adults and Black women, with the association attenuating in older Black women. Black women with diabetes had the highest lifetime risk of HF compared with other race-sex groups.

Proceedings of the Ninth HDL (High-Density Lipoprotein) Workshop: Focus on Cardiovascular Disease.

The HDL (high-density lipoprotein) Workshop was established in 2009 as a forum for candid discussions among academic basic scientists, clinical investigators, and industry researchers about the role of HDL in cardiovascular disease. This ninth HDL Workshop was held on May 16 to 17, 2019 in Boston, MA, and included outstanding oral presentations from established and emerging investigators. The Workshop featured 5 sessions with topics that tackled the role of HDL in the vasculature, its structural complexity, its role in health and disease states, and its interaction with the intestinal microbiome. The highlight of the program was awarding the Jack Oram Award to the distinguished professor emeritus G.S. Getz from the University of Chicago. The tenth HDL Workshop will be held on May 2020 in Chicago and will continue the focus on intellectually stimulating presentations by established and emerging investigators on novel roles of HDL in cardiovascular and noncardiovascular health and disease states.

PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of effective drug therapies that reduce low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol (LDL-C), cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains an important cause of mortality and morbidity. Therefore, additional LDL-C reduction may be warranted, especially for people who are unresponsive to, or unable to take, existing LDL-C-reducing therapies. By inhibiting the proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) enzyme, monoclonal antibodies (PCSK9 inhibitors) reduce LDL-C and CVD risk. OBJECTIVES: Primary To quantify the effects of PCSK9 inhibitors on CVD, all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and stroke, compared to placebo or active treatment(s) for primary and secondary prevention. Secondary To quantify the safety of PCSK9 inhibitors, with specific focus on the incidence of influenza, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and cancer, compared to placebo or active treatment(s) for primary and secondary prevention. SEARCH METHODS: We identified studies by systematically searching CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science in December 2019. We also searched ClinicalTrials.gov and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform in August 2020 and screened the reference lists of included studies. This is an update of the review first published in 2017. SELECTION CRITERIA: All parallel-group and factorial randomised controlled trials (RCTs) with a follow-up of at least 24 weeks were eligible. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently reviewed and extracted data. Where data were available, we calculated pooled effect estimates. We used GRADE to assess certainty of evidence and in 'Summary of findings' tables. MAIN RESULTS: We included 24 studies with data on 60,997 participants. Eighteen trials randomised participants to alirocumab and six to evolocumab. All participants received background lipid-lowering treatment or lifestyle counselling. Six alirocumab studies used  an active treatment comparison group (the remaining used placebo), compared to three evolocumab active comparison trials. Alirocumab compared with placebo decreased the risk of CVD events, with an absolute risk difference (RD) of -2% (odds ratio (OR) 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80 to 0.94; 10 studies, 23,868 participants; high-certainty evidence), decreased the risk of mortality (RD -1%; OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.96; 12 studies, 24,797 participants; high-certainty evidence), and MI (RD -2%; OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.94; 9 studies, 23,352 participants; high-certainty evidence) and for any stroke (RD 0%; OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.91; 8 studies, 22,835 participants; high-certainty evidence). Compared to active treatment the alirocumab effects, for CVD, the RD was 1% (OR 1.37, 95% CI 0.65 to 2.87; 3 studies, 1379 participants; low-certainty evidence); for mortality, RD was -1% (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.18 to 1.40; 5 studies, 1333 participants; low-certainty evidence); for MI, RD was 1% (OR 1.45, 95% CI 0.64 to 3.28, 5 studies, 1734 participants; low-certainty evidence); and for any stroke, RD was less than 1% (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.13 to 5.61; 5 studies, 1734 participants; low-certainty evidence). Compared to placebo the evolocumab, for CVD, the RD was -2% (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.91; 3 studies, 29,432 participants; high-certainty evidence); for mortality, RD was less than 1% (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.19; 3 studies, 29,432 participants; high-certainty evidence); for MI, RD was -1% (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.82; 3 studies, 29,432 participants; high-certainty evidence); and for any stroke RD was less than -1% (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.94; 2 studies, 28,531 participants; high-certainty evidence).  Compared to active treatment, the evolocumab effects, for any CVD event RD was less than -1% (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.14 to 3.04; 1 study, 218 participants; very low-certainty evidence); for all-cause mortality, the RD was less than 1% (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.14 to 1.30; 3 studies, 5223 participants; very low-certainty evidence); and for MI, RD was less than 1% (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.23 to 1.85; 3 studies, 5003 participants; very low-certainty evidence). There were insufficient data on any stroke.  AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The evidence for the clinical endpoint effects of  evolocumab and alirocumab were graded as high. There is a strong evidence base to prescribe PCSK9 monoclonal antibodies to people who might not be eligible for other lipid-lowering drugs, or to people who cannot meet their lipid goals on more traditional therapies, which was the main patient population of the available trials.  The evidence base of PCSK9 inhibitors compared with active treatment is much weaker (low very- to low-certainty evidence) and it is unclear whether evolocumab or alirocumab might be effectively used as replacement therapies. Related, most of the available studies preferentially enrolled people with either established CVD or at a high risk already, and evidence in low- to medium-risk settings is minimal. Finally, there is very limited evidence on any potential safety issues of both evolocumab and alirocumab. While the current evidence synthesis does not reveal any adverse signals, neither does it provide evidence against such signals. This suggests careful consideration of alternative lipid lowering treatments before prescribing PCSK9 inhibitors.

HDL modification: recent developments and their relevance to atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: In the last 2 years, significant advances in the understanding of HDL particle structure and the associations between particle structure, function, and atherosclerosis have been made. We will review and provide clinical and epidemiological context to these recent advances. RECENT FINDINGS: Several recent studies have analyzed the associations between HDL particle size distribution, number, and particle function and specific environmental, behavioral, and pharmacologic exposures. Detailed phenotyping of HDL-associated protein complements, particularly apolipoproteins, strongly suggests structural subspecies of HDL exist with differential associations with HDL function and ASCVD risk. SUMMARY: The recent data on biological and structural variation in HDL suggests the existence of relatively discrete particle species, which share a similar structure and function. We propose that the classical taxonomy that clusters HDL particles by cholesterol content is incomplete. Detailed phenotyping of HDL subspecies in clinical and epidemiological research may yield insights into new risk markers and biochemical pathways that could provide targets for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) therapy and prevention in the future.

Can atherosclerosis be cured?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Determine if evidence supports interventions to prevent development of atherosclerosis and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events and death. RECENT FINDINGS: An extensive body of evidence supports the fundamental causal role of apolipoprotein B lipoproteins in the development of atherosclerosis. Recent epidemiologic studies have shown that LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) and non-HDL-cholesterol levels in early adults are associated with accelerated subclinical atherosclerosis and an excess of atherosclerotic cardiovascular events later in life. Animal and human data have shown that intensive LDL-C lowering can regress earlier stages of atherosclerosis. SUMMARY: The next research priority is evaluating the impact of lowering LDL-C earlier in life to regress early atherosclerosis, followed by trials to demonstrate this approach will eradicate later-life ASCVD events and death. This approach of curing atherosclerosis will likely be the most effective strategy for reducing the huge global burden of atherosclerosis.

Trends in Levels of Lipids and Apolipoprotein B in US Youths Aged 6 to 19 Years, 1999-2016.

Importance: Favorable trends occurred in the lipid levels of US youths through 2010, but these trends may be altered by ongoing changes in the food supply, obesity prevalence, and other factors. Objective: To analyze trends in levels of lipids and apolipoprotein B in US youths during 18 years from 1999 through 2016. Design, Setting, and Participants: Serial cross-sectional analysis of US population-weighted data for youths aged 6 to 19 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys for 1999 through 2016. Linear temporal trends were analyzed using multivariable regression models with regression coefficients (ß) reported as change per 1 year. Exposures: Survey year; examined periods spanned 10 to 18 years based on data availability. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age- and race/ethnicity-adjusted mean levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL), non-HDL, and total cholesterol. Among fasting adolescents (aged 12-19 years), mean levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, geometric mean levels of triglycerides, and mean levels of apolipoprotein B. Prevalence of ideal and adverse (vs borderline) levels of lipids and apolipoprotein B per pediatric lipid guidelines. Results: In total, 26 047 youths were included (weighted mean age, 12.4 years; female, 51%). Among all youths, the adjusted mean total cholesterol level declined from 164 mg/dL (95% CI, 161 to 167 mg/dL) in 1999-2000 to 155 mg/dL (95% CI, 154 to 157 mg/dL) in 2015-2016 (ß for linear trend, -0.6 mg/dL [95% CI, -0.7 to -0.4 mg/dL] per year). Adjusted mean HDL cholesterol level increased from 52.5 mg/dL (95% CI, 51.7 to 53.3 mg/dL) in 2007-2008 to 55.0 mg/dL (95% CI, 53.8 to 56.3 mg/dL) in 2015-2016 (ß, 0.2 mg/dL [95% CI, 0.1 to 0.4 mg/dL] per year) and non-HDL cholesterol decreased from 108 mg/dL (95% CI, 106 to 110 mg/dL) to 100 mg/dL (95% CI, 99 to 102 mg/dL) during the same years (ß, -0.9 mg/dL [95% CI, -1.2 to -0.6 mg/dL] per year). Among fasting adolescents, geometric mean levels of triglycerides declined from 78 mg/dL (95% CI, 74 to 82 mg/dL) in 1999-2000 to 63 mg/dL (95% CI, 58 to 68 mg/dL) in 2013-2014 (log-transformed ß, -0.015 [95% CI, -0.020 to -0.010] per year), mean levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol declined from 92 mg/dL (95% CI, 89 to 95 mg/dL) to 86 mg/dL (95% CI, 83 to 90 mg/dL) during the same years (ß, -0.4 mg/dL [95% CI, -0.7 to -0.2 mg/dL] per year), and mean levels of apolipoprotein B declined from 70 mg/dL (95% CI, 68 to 72 mg/dL) in 2005-2006 to 67 mg/dL (95% CI, 65 to 70 mg/dL) in 2013-2014 (ß, -0.4 mg/dL [95% CI, -0.7 to -0.04 mg/dL] per year). Favorable trends were generally also observed in the prevalence of ideal and adverse levels. By the end of the study period, 51.4% (95% CI, 48.5% to 54.2%) of all youths had ideal levels for HDL, non-HDL, and total cholesterol; among adolescents, 46.8% (95% CI, 40.9% to 52.6%) had ideal levels for all lipids and apolipoprotein B, whereas 15.2% (95% CI, 13.1% to 17.3%) of children aged 6 to 11 years and 25.2% (95% CI, 22.2% to 28.2%) of adolescents aged 12 to 19 years had at least 1 adverse level. Conclusions and Relevance: Between 1999 and 2016, favorable trends were observed in levels of lipids and apolipoprotein B in US youths aged 6 to 19 years.

Associations of Dietary Cholesterol or Egg Consumption With Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

Importance: Cholesterol is a common nutrient in the human diet and eggs are a major source of dietary cholesterol. Whether dietary cholesterol or egg consumption is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality remains controversial. Objective: To determine the associations of dietary cholesterol or egg consumption with incident CVD and all-cause mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual participant data were pooled from 6 prospective US cohorts using data collected between March 25, 1985, and August 31, 2016. Self-reported diet data were harmonized using a standardized protocol. Exposures: Dietary cholesterol (mg/day) or egg consumption (number/day). Main Outcomes and Measures: Hazard ratio (HR) and absolute risk difference (ARD) over the entire follow-up for incident CVD (composite of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, and other CVD deaths) and all-cause mortality, adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors. Results: This analysis included 29 615 participants (mean [SD] age, 51.6 [13.5] years at baseline) of whom 13 299 (44.9%) were men and 9204 (31.1%) were black. During a median follow-up of 17.5 years (interquartile range, 13.0-21.7; maximum, 31.3), there were 5400 incident CVD events and 6132 all-cause deaths. The associations of dietary cholesterol or egg consumption with incident CVD and all-cause mortality were monotonic (all P values for nonlinear terms, .19-.83). Each additional 300 mg of dietary cholesterol consumed per day was significantly associated with higher risk of incident CVD (adjusted HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.09-1.26]; adjusted ARD, 3.24% [95% CI, 1.39%-5.08%]) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.10-1.26]; adjusted ARD, 4.43% [95% CI, 2.51%-6.36%]). Each additional half an egg consumed per day was significantly associated with higher risk of incident CVD (adjusted HR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.03-1.10]; adjusted ARD, 1.11% [95% CI, 0.32%-1.89%]) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.04-1.11]; adjusted ARD, 1.93% [95% CI, 1.10%-2.76%]). The associations between egg consumption and incident CVD (adjusted HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.93-1.05]; adjusted ARD, -0.47% [95% CI, -1.83% to 0.88%]) and all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.03 [95% CI, 0.97-1.09]; adjusted ARD, 0.71% [95% CI, -0.85% to 2.28%]) were no longer significant after adjusting for dietary cholesterol consumption. Conclusions and Relevance: Among US adults, higher consumption of dietary cholesterol or eggs was significantly associated with higher risk of incident CVD and all-cause mortality in a dose-response manner. These results should be considered in the development of dietary guidelines and updates.

Hypertriglyceridemia and cardiovascular risk: a cautionary note about metabolic confounding.

Triglycerides are the conventional tool to measure VLDLs, whereas LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) is the conventional tool to measure LDLs. Multiple epidemiological studies, including a series of genetically based analyses, have demonstrated that cardiovascular risk is related to triglycerides independently of LDL-C, and this has led to a series of new therapeutic agents designed specifically to reduce plasma triglycerides. The triglyceride hypothesis posits that increased levels of triglycerides increase cardiovascular risk and decreasing plasma triglycerides decreases cardiovascular risk. In this work, we will examine the validity of the triglyceride hypothesis by detailing the biological complexities associated with hypertriglyceridemia, the genetic epidemiological evidence in favor of hypertriglyceridemia, the evidence from the fibrate randomized clinical trials relating triglycerides and clinical outcomes, and the completeness of the evidence from the initial studies of novel mutations and the therapeutic agents based on these mutations that lower triglycerides. Because of the multiple metabolic links between VLDL and LDL, we will try to demonstrate that measuring triglycerides and LDL-C alone are inadequate to document the lipoprotein profile. We will try to demonstrate that apoB must be measured, as well as triglycerides and cholesterol, to have an accurate estimate of lipoprotein status.

A Targeted, Differential Top-Down Proteomic Methodology for Comparison of ApoA-I Proteoforms in Individuals with High and Low HDL Efflux Capacity.

Top-down proteomics (TDP) allows precise determination/characterization of the different proteoforms derived from the expression of a single gene. In this study, we targeted apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I), a mediator of high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol efflux (HDL-E), which is inversely associated with coronary heart disease risk. Absolute ApoA-I concentration and allelic variation only partially explain interindividual HDL-E variation. Therefore, we hypothesize that differences in HDL-E are associated with the abundances of different ApoA-I proteoforms. Here, we present a targeted TDP methodology to characterize ApoA-I proteoforms in serum samples and compare their abundances between individuals. We characterized 18 ApoA-I proteoforms using selected-ion monitoring coupled to electron-transfer dissociation mass spectrometry. We then compared the abundances of these proteoforms between two groups of four participants, representing the individuals with highest and lowest HDL-E values within the Chicago Healthy Aging Study ( n = 420). Six proteoforms showed significantly ( p < 0.0005) higher intensity in high HDL-E individuals: canonical ApoA-I [fold difference (fd) = 1.17], carboxymethylated ApoA-I (fd = 1.24) and, with highest difference, four fatty acylated forms: palmitoylated (fd = 2.16), oleoylated (fd = 2.08), arachidonoylated (fd = 2.31) and one bearing two modifications: palmitoylation and truncation (fd = 2.13). These results demonstrate translational potential for targeted TDP in revealing, with high sensitivity, associations between interindividual proteoform variation and physiological differences underlying disease risk.

A point-based prediction model for cardiovascular risk in orthotopic liver transplantation: The CAR-OLT score.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) complications are important causes of morbidity and mortality after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). There is currently no preoperative risk-assessment tool that allows physicians to estimate the risk for CVD events following OLT. We sought to develop a point-based prediction model (risk score) for CVD complications after OLT, the Cardiovascular Risk in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation risk score, among a cohort of 1,024 consecutive patients aged 18-75 years who underwent first OLT in a tertiary-care teaching hospital (2002-2011). The main outcome measures were major 1-year CVD complications, defined as death from a CVD cause or hospitalization for a major CVD event (myocardial infarction, revascularization, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, cardiac arrest, pulmonary embolism, and/or stroke). The bootstrap method yielded bias-corrected 95% confidence intervals for the regression coefficients of the final model. Among 1,024 first OLT recipients, major CVD complications occurred in 329 (32.1%). Variables selected for inclusion in the model (using model optimization strategies) included preoperative recipient age, sex, race, employment status, education status, history of hepatocellular carcinoma, diabetes, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, pulmonary or systemic hypertension, and respiratory failure. The discriminative performance of the point-based score (C statistic = 0.78, bias-corrected C statistic = 0.77) was superior to other published risk models for postoperative CVD morbidity and mortality, and it had appropriate calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.33). CONCLUSION: The point-based risk score can identify patients at risk for CVD complications after OLT surgery (available at www.carolt.us); this score may be useful for identification of candidates for further risk stratification or other management strategies to improve CVD outcomes after OLT. (Hepatology 2017;66:1968-1979).

HDL efflux capacity, HDL particle size, and high-risk carotid atherosclerosis in a cohort of asymptomatic older adults: the Chicago Healthy Aging Study.

HDL efflux capacity and HDL particle size are associated with atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) events in middle-aged individuals; however, it is unclear whether these associations are present in older adults. We sampled 402 Chicago Healthy Aging Study participants who underwent a dedicated carotid MRI assessment for lipid-rich necrotic core (LRNC) plaque. We measured HDL particle size, HDL particle number, and LDL particle number with NMR spectroscopy, as well as HDL efflux capacity. We quantified the associations between HDL particle size and HDL efflux using adjusted linear regression models. We quantified associations between the presence of LRNC and HDL and LDL particle number, HDL particle size, and HDL efflux capacity using adjusted logistic regression models. HDL efflux capacity was directly associated with large (ß = 0.037, P < 0.001) and medium (ß = 0.0065, P = 0.002) HDL particle concentration and inversely associated with small (ß = -0.0049, P = 0.018) HDL particle concentration in multivariable adjusted models. HDL efflux capacity and HDL particle number were inversely associated with prevalent LRNC plaque in unadjusted models (odds ratio: 0.5; 95% confidence interval: 0.26, 0.96), but not after multivariable adjustment. HDL particle size was not associated with prevalent LRNC. HDL particle size was significantly associated with HDL efflux capacity, suggesting that differences in HDL efflux capacity may be due to structural differences in HDL particles. Future research is needed to determine whether HDL efflux is a marker of ASCVD risk in older populations.