Economic gains and health benefits from a new cigarette tax scheme in Taiwan: a simulation using the CGE model.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates the impact of an increase in cigarette tax in Taiwan in terms of the effects it has on the overall economy and the health benefits that it brings. METHODS: The multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was used to simulate the impact of reduced cigarette consumption resulting from a new tax scheme on the entire economy gains and on health benefits. RESULTS: The results predict that because of the new tax scheme, there should be a marked reduction in cigarette consumption but a notable increase in health benefits that include saving between 28,125 and 56,250 lives. This could save NTD 1.222 approximately 2.445 billion (where USD 1 = NTD 34.6) annually in life-threatening, cigarette-related health insurance expenses which exceeds the projected decrease of NTD 1.275 billion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) because of reduced consumption and therefore tax revenue. CONCLUSION: Overall, the increased cigarette excise tax will be beneficial in terms of both the health of the general public and the economy as a whole.

The effect of cigarette price increase on the cigarette consumption in Taiwan: evidence from the National Health Interview Surveys on cigarette consumption.

BACKGROUND: This study uses cigarette price elasticity to evaluate the effect of a new excise tax increase on cigarette consumption and to investigate responses from various types of smokers. METHODS: Our sample consisted of current smokers between 17 and 69 years old interviewed during an annual face-to-face survey conducted by Taiwan National Health Research Institutes between 2000 to 2003. We used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) procedure to estimate double logarithmic function of cigarette demand and cigarette price elasticity. RESULTS: In 2002, after Taiwan had enacted the new tax scheme, cigarette price elasticity in Taiwan was found to be -0.5274. The new tax scheme brought about an average annual 13.27 packs/person (10.5%) reduction in cigarette consumption. Using the cigarette price elasticity estimate from -0.309 in 2003, we calculated that if the Health and Welfare Tax were increased by another NT 3 dollars per pack and cigarette producers shifted this increase to the consumers, cigarette consumption would be reduced by 2.47 packs/person (2.2%). The value of the estimated cigarette price elasticity is smaller than one, meaning that the tax will not only reduce cigarette consumption but it will also generate additional tax revenues. Male smokers who had no income or who smoked light cigarettes were found to be more responsive to changes in cigarette price. CONCLUSIONS: An additional tax added to the cost of cigarettes would bring about a reduction in cigarette consumption and increased tax revenues. It would also help reduce incidents smoking-related illnesses. The additional tax revenues generated by the tax increase could be used to offset the current financial deficiency of Taiwan's National Health Insurance program and provide better public services.

The cross-effects of cigarette and betel nut consumption in Taiwan: have tax increases made a difference?

This paper empirically identifies cross-price elasticities of betel nut and cigarette consumption in Taiwan based on the Central Bureau of Statistics demand model. It compares reduction of cigarette consumption as a result of the proposed Betel Nut Health Tax with reduction of betel nut consumption as a result of the Tobacco Health and Welfare Taxes levied in 2002 and 2006, in order to determine which tax is most effective. Results from a simulated comparative analysis indicate that the Betel Nut Health Tax reduces cigarette consumption to a much greater extent than the Tobacco Health and Welfare Taxes reduce betel nut consumption.