Reproducible brain-wide association studies require thousands of individuals.

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has transformed our understanding of the human brain through well-replicated mapping of abilities to specific structures (for example, lesion studies) and functions1-3 (for example, task functional MRI (fMRI)). Mental health research and care have yet to realize similar advances from MRI. A primary challenge has been replicating associations between inter-individual differences in brain structure or function and complex cognitive or mental health phenotypes (brain-wide association studies (BWAS)). Such BWAS have typically relied on sample sizes appropriate for classical brain mapping4 (the median neuroimaging study sample size is about 25), but potentially too small for capturing reproducible brain-behavioural phenotype associations5,6. Here we used three of the largest neuroimaging datasets currently available-with a total sample size of around 50,000 individuals-to quantify BWAS effect sizes and reproducibility as a function of sample size. BWAS associations were smaller than previously thought, resulting in statistically underpowered studies, inflated effect sizes and replication failures at typical sample sizes. As sample sizes grew into the thousands, replication rates began to improve and effect size inflation decreased. More robust BWAS effects were detected for functional MRI (versus structural), cognitive tests (versus mental health questionnaires) and multivariate methods (versus univariate). Smaller than expected brain-phenotype associations and variability across population subsamples can explain widespread BWAS replication failures. In contrast to non-BWAS approaches with larger effects (for example, lesions, interventions and within-person), BWAS reproducibility requires samples with thousands of individuals.

In vivo whole-cortex marker of excitation-inhibition ratio indexes cortical maturation and cognitive ability in youth.

A balanced excitation-inhibition ratio (E/I ratio) is critical for healthy brain function. Normative development of cortex-wide E/I ratio remains unknown. Here, we noninvasively estimate a putative marker of whole-cortex E/I ratio by fitting a large-scale biophysically plausible circuit model to resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) data. We first confirm that our model generates realistic brain dynamics in the Human Connectome Project. Next, we show that the estimated E/I ratio marker is sensitive to the gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) agonist benzodiazepine alprazolam during fMRI. Alprazolam-induced E/I changes are spatially consistent with positron emission tomography measurement of benzodiazepine receptor density. We then investigate the relationship between the E/I ratio marker and neurodevelopment. We find that the E/I ratio marker declines heterogeneously across the cerebral cortex during youth, with the greatest reduction occurring in sensorimotor systems relative to association systems. Importantly, among children with the same chronological age, a lower E/I ratio marker (especially in the association cortex) is linked to better cognitive performance. This result is replicated across North American (8.2 to 23.0 y old) and Asian (7.2 to 7.9 y old) cohorts, suggesting that a more mature E/I ratio indexes improved cognition during normative development. Overall, our findings open the door to studying how disrupted E/I trajectories may lead to cognitive dysfunction in psychopathology that emerges during youth.

Mapping human brain charts cross-sectionally and longitudinally.

Brain scans acquired across large, age-diverse cohorts have facilitated recent progress in establishing normative brain aging charts. Here, we ask the critical question of whether cross-sectional estimates of age-related brain trajectories resemble those directly measured from longitudinal data. We show that age-related brain changes inferred from cross-sectionally mapped brain charts can substantially underestimate actual changes measured longitudinally. We further find that brain aging trajectories vary markedly between individuals and are difficult to predict with population-level age trends estimated cross-sectionally. Prediction errors relate modestly to neuroimaging confounds and lifestyle factors. Our findings provide explicit evidence for the importance of longitudinal measurements in ascertaining brain development and aging trajectories.

Population heterogeneity in clinical cohorts affects the predictive accuracy of brain imaging.

Brain imaging research enjoys increasing adoption of supervised machine learning for single-participant disease classification. Yet, the success of these algorithms likely depends on population diversity, including demographic differences and other factors that may be outside of primary scientific interest. Here, we capitalize on propensity scores as a composite confound index to quantify diversity due to major sources of population variation. We delineate the impact of population heterogeneity on the predictive accuracy and pattern stability in 2 separate clinical cohorts: the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE, n = 297) and the Healthy Brain Network (HBN, n = 551). Across various analysis scenarios, our results uncover the extent to which cross-validated prediction performances are interlocked with diversity. The instability of extracted brain patterns attributable to diversity is located preferentially in regions part of the default mode network. Collectively, our findings highlight the limitations of prevailing deconfounding practices in mitigating the full consequences of population diversity.

Organization of the human cerebral cortex estimated within individuals: networks, global topography, and function.

The cerebral cortex is populated by specialized regions that are organized into networks. Here we estimated networks from functional MRI (fMRI) data in intensively sampled participants. The procedure was developed in two participants (scanned 31 times) and then prospectively applied to 15 participants (scanned 8-11 times). Analysis of the networks revealed a global organization. Locally organized first-order sensory and motor networks were surrounded by spatially adjacent second-order networks that linked to distant regions. Third-order networks possessed regions distributed widely throughout association cortex. Regions of distinct third-order networks displayed side-by-side juxtapositions with a pattern that repeated across multiple cortical zones. We refer to these as supra-areal association megaclusters (SAAMs). Within each SAAM, two candidate control regions were adjacent to three separate domain-specialized regions. Response properties were explored with task data. The somatomotor and visual networks responded to body movements and visual stimulation, respectively. Second-order networks responded to transients in an oddball detection task, consistent with a role in orienting to salient events. The third-order networks, including distinct regions within each SAAM, showed two levels of functional specialization. Regions linked to candidate control networks responded to working memory load across multiple stimulus domains. The remaining regions dissociated across language, social, and spatial/episodic processing domains. These results suggest that progressively higher-order networks nest outward from primary sensory and motor cortices. Within the apex zones of association cortex, there is specialization that repeatedly divides domain-flexible from domain-specialized regions. We discuss implications of these findings, including how repeating organizational motifs may emerge during development.NEW & NOTEWORTHY The organization of cerebral networks was estimated within individuals with intensive, repeat sampling of fMRI data. A hierarchical organization emerged in each individual that delineated first-, second-, and third-order cortical networks. Regions of distinct third-order association networks consistently exhibited side-by-side juxtapositions that repeated across multiple cortical zones, with clear and robust functional specialization among the embedded regions.

Correction: Time of day is associated with paradoxical reductions in global signal fluctuation and functional connectivity.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000602.].

Heritability of individualized cortical network topography.

Human cortex is patterned by a complex and interdigitated web of large-scale functional networks. Recent methodological breakthroughs reveal variation in the size, shape, and spatial topography of cortical networks across individuals. While spatial network organization emerges across development, is stable over time, and is predictive of behavior, it is not yet clear to what extent genetic factors underlie interindividual differences in network topography. Here, leveraging a nonlinear multidimensional estimation of heritability, we provide evidence that individual variability in the size and topographic organization of cortical networks are under genetic control. Using twin and family data from the Human Connectome Project (n = 1,023), we find increased variability and reduced heritability in the size of heteromodal association networks (h2 : M = 0.34, SD = 0.070), relative to unimodal sensory/motor cortex (h2 : M = 0.40, SD = 0.097). We then demonstrate that the spatial layout of cortical networks is influenced by genetics, using our multidimensional estimation of heritability (h2-multi; M = 0.14, SD = 0.015). However, topographic heritability did not differ between heteromodal and unimodal networks. Genetic factors had a regionally variable influence on brain organization, such that the heritability of network topography was greatest in prefrontal, precuneus, and posterior parietal cortex. Taken together, these data are consistent with relaxed genetic control of association cortices relative to primary sensory/motor regions and have implications for understanding population-level variability in brain functioning, guiding both individualized prediction and the interpretation of analyses that integrate genetics and neuroimaging.

Relationship between prediction accuracy and feature importance reliability: An empirical and theoretical study.

There is significant interest in using neuroimaging data to predict behavior. The predictive models are often interpreted by the computation of feature importance, which quantifies the predictive relevance of an imaging feature. Tian and Zalesky (2021) suggest that feature importance estimates exhibit low split-half reliability, as well as a trade-off between prediction accuracy and feature importance reliability across parcellation resolutions. However, it is unclear whether the trade-off between prediction accuracy and feature importance reliability is universal. Here, we demonstrate that, with a sufficient sample size, feature importance (operationalized as Haufe-transformed weights) can achieve fair to excellent split-half reliability. With a sample size of 2600 participants, Haufe-transformed weights achieve average intra-class correlation coefficients of 0.75, 0.57 and 0.53 for cognitive, personality and mental health measures respectively. Haufe-transformed weights are much more reliable than original regression weights and univariate FC-behavior correlations. Original regression weights are not reliable even with 2600 participants. Intriguingly, feature importance reliability is strongly positively correlated with prediction accuracy across phenotypes. Within a particular behavioral domain, there is no clear relationship between prediction performance and feature importance reliability across regression models. Furthermore, we show mathematically that feature importance reliability is necessary, but not sufficient, for low feature importance error. In the case of linear models, lower feature importance error is mathematically related to lower prediction error. Therefore, higher feature importance reliability might yield lower feature importance error and higher prediction accuracy. Finally, we discuss how our theoretical results relate with the reliability of imaging features and behavioral measures. Overall, the current study provides empirical and theoretical insights into the relationship between prediction accuracy and feature importance reliability.

Homotopic local-global parcellation of the human cerebral cortex from resting-state functional connectivity.

Resting-state fMRI is commonly used to derive brain parcellations, which are widely used for dimensionality reduction and interpreting human neuroscience studies. We previously developed a model that integrates local and global approaches for estimating areal-level cortical parcellations. The resulting local-global parcellations are often referred to as the Schaefer parcellations. However, the lack of homotopic correspondence between left and right Schaefer parcels has limited their use for brain lateralization studies. Here, we extend our previous model to derive homotopic areal-level parcellations. Using resting-fMRI and task-fMRI across diverse scanners, acquisition protocols, preprocessing and demographics, we show that the resulting homotopic parcellations are as homogeneous as the Schaefer parcellations, while being more homogeneous than five publicly available parcellations. Furthermore, weaker correlations between homotopic parcels are associated with greater lateralization in resting network organization, as well as lateralization in language and motor task activation. Finally, the homotopic parcellations agree with the boundaries of a number of cortical areas estimated from histology and visuotopic fMRI, while capturing sub-areal (e.g., somatotopic and visuotopic) features. Overall, these results suggest that the homotopic local-global parcellations represent neurobiologically meaningful subdivisions of the human cerebral cortex and will be a useful resource for future studies. Multi-resolution parcellations estimated from 1479 participants are publicly available (https://github.com/ThomasYeoLab/CBIG/tree/master/stable_projects/brain_parcellation/Yan2023_homotopic).

Imaging-based parcellations of the human brain.

A defining aspect of brain organization is its spatial heterogeneity, which gives rise to multiple topographies at different scales. Brain parcellation - defining distinct partitions in the brain, be they areas or networks that comprise multiple discontinuous but closely interacting regions - is thus fundamental for understanding brain organization and function. The past decade has seen an explosion of in vivo MRI-based approaches to identify and parcellate the brain on the basis of a wealth of different features, ranging from local properties of brain tissue to long-range connectivity patterns, in addition to structural and functional markers. Given the high diversity of these various approaches, assessing the convergence and divergence among these ensuing maps is a challenge. Inter-individual variability adds to this challenge but also provides new opportunities when coupled with cross-species and developmental parcellation studies.

Time of day is associated with paradoxical reductions in global signal fluctuation and functional connectivity.

The brain exhibits substantial diurnal variation in physiology and function, but neuroscience studies rarely report or consider the effects of time of day. Here, we examined variation in resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) in around 900 individuals scanned between 8 AM and 10 PM on two different days. Multiple studies across animals and humans have demonstrated that the brain's global signal (GS) amplitude (henceforth referred to as "fluctuation") increases with decreased arousal. Thus, in accord with known circadian variation in arousal, we hypothesised that GS fluctuation would be lowest in the morning, increase in the midafternoon, and dip in the early evening. Instead, we observed a cumulative decrease in GS fluctuation as the day progressed. Although respiratory variation also decreased with time of day, control analyses suggested that this did not account for the reduction in GS fluctuation. Finally, time of day was associated with marked decreases in resting-state functional connectivity across the whole brain. The magnitude of decrease was significantly stronger than associations between functional connectivity and behaviour (e.g., fluid intelligence). These findings reveal time of day effects on global brain activity that are not easily explained by expected arousal state or physiological artefacts. We conclude by discussing potential mechanisms for the observed diurnal variation in resting brain activity and the importance of accounting for time of day in future studies.

Convergent molecular, cellular, and cortical neuroimaging signatures of major depressive disorder.

Major depressive disorder emerges from the complex interactions of biological systems that span genes and molecules through cells, networks, and behavior. Establishing how neurobiological processes coalesce to contribute to depression requires a multiscale approach, encompassing measures of brain structure and function as well as genetic and cell-specific transcriptional data. Here, we examine anatomical (cortical thickness) and functional (functional variability, global brain connectivity) correlates of depression and negative affect across three population-imaging datasets: UK Biobank, Brain Genomics Superstruct Project, and Enhancing NeuroImaging through Meta Analysis (ENIGMA; combined n ≥ 23,723). Integrative analyses incorporate measures of cortical gene expression, postmortem patient transcriptional data, depression genome-wide association study (GWAS), and single-cell gene transcription. Neuroimaging correlates of depression and negative affect were consistent across three independent datasets. Linking ex vivo gene down-regulation with in vivo neuroimaging, we find that transcriptional correlates of depression imaging phenotypes track gene down-regulation in postmortem cortical samples of patients with depression. Integrated analysis of single-cell and Allen Human Brain Atlas expression data reveal somatostatin interneurons and astrocytes to be consistent cell associates of depression, through both in vivo imaging and ex vivo cortical gene dysregulation. Providing converging evidence for these observations, GWAS-derived polygenic risk for depression was enriched for genes expressed in interneurons, but not glia. Underscoring the translational potential of multiscale approaches, the transcriptional correlates of depression-linked brain function and structure were enriched for disorder-relevant molecular pathways. These findings bridge levels to connect specific genes, cell classes, and biological pathways to in vivo imaging correlates of depression.

Nocturnal Blood Pressure Estimation from Sleep Plethysmography Using Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: Elevated nocturnal blood pressure (BP) is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. Cuffless BP assessment aided by machine learning could be a desirable alternative to traditional cuff-based methods for monitoring BP during sleep. We describe a machine-learning-based algorithm for predicting nocturnal BP using single-channel fingertip plethysmography (PPG) in healthy adults. METHODS: Sixty-eight healthy adults with no apparent sleep or CVD (53% male), with a median (IQR) age of 29 (23-46 years), underwent overnight polysomnography (PSG) with fingertip PPG and ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM). Features based on pulse morphology were extracted from the PPG waveforms. Random forest models were used to predict night-time systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). RESULTS: Our model achieved the highest out-of-sample performance with a window length of 7 s across window lengths explored (60 s, 30 s, 15 s, 7 s, and 3 s). The mean absolute error (MAE ± STD) was 5.72 ± 4.51 mmHg for SBP and 4.52 ± 3.60 mmHg for DBP. Similarly, the root mean square error (RMSE ± STD) was 6.47 ± 1.88 mmHg for SBP and 4.62 ± 1.17 mmHg for DBP. The mean correlation coefficient between measured and predicted values was 0.87 for SBP and 0.86 for DBP. Based on Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) values, the most important PPG waveform feature was the stiffness index, a marker that reflects the change in arterial stiffness. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the potential of machine learning-based nocturnal BP prediction using single-channel fingertip PPG in healthy adults. The accuracy of the predictions demonstrated that our cuffless method was able to capture the dynamic and complex relationship between PPG waveform characteristics and BP during sleep, which may provide a scalable, convenient, economical, and non-invasive means to continuously monitor blood pressure.

Dynamic primitives of brain network interaction.

What dynamic processes underly functional brain networks? Functional connectivity (FC) and functional connectivity dynamics (FCD) are used to represent the patterns and dynamics of functional brain networks. FC(D) is related to the synchrony of brain activity: when brain areas oscillate in a coordinated manner this yields a high correlation between their signal time series. To explain the processes underlying FC(D) we review how synchronized oscillations emerge from coupled neural populations in brain network models (BNMs). From detailed spiking networks to more abstract population models, there is strong support for the idea that the brain operates near critical instabilities that give rise to multistable or metastable dynamics that in turn lead to the intermittently synchronized slow oscillations underlying FC(D). We explore further consequences from these fundamental mechanisms and how they fit with reality. We conclude by highlighting the need for integrative brain models that connect separate mechanisms across levels of description and spatiotemporal scales and link them with cognitive function.

Cross-cohort replicability and generalizability of connectivity-based psychometric prediction patterns.

An increasing number of studies have investigated the relationships between inter-individual variability in brain regions' connectivity and behavioral phenotypes, making use of large population neuroimaging datasets. However, the replicability of brain-behavior associations identified by these approaches remains an open question. In this study, we examined the cross-dataset replicability of brain-behavior association patterns for fluid cognition and openness predictions using a previously developed region-wise approach, as well as using a standard whole-brain approach. Overall, we found moderate similarity in patterns for fluid cognition predictions across cohorts, especially in the Human Connectome Project Young Adult, Human Connectome Project Aging, and Enhanced Nathan Kline Institute Rockland Sample cohorts, but low similarity in patterns for openness predictions. In addition, we assessed the generalizability of prediction models in cross-dataset predictions, by training the model in one dataset and testing in another. Making use of the region-wise prediction approach, we showed that first, a moderate extent of generalizability could be achieved with fluid cognition prediction, and that, second, a set of common brain regions related to fluid cognition across cohorts could be identified. Nevertheless, the moderate replicability and generalizability could only be achieved in specific contexts. Thus, we argue that replicability and generalizability in connectivity-based prediction remain limited and deserve greater attention in future studies.

Proportional intracranial volume correction differentially biases behavioral predictions across neuroanatomical features, sexes, and development.

Individual differences in brain anatomy can be used to predict variations in cognitive ability. Most studies to date have focused on broad population-level trends, but the extent to which the observed predictive features are shared across sexes and age groups remains to be established. While it is standard practice to account for intracranial volume (ICV) using proportion correction in both regional and whole-brain morphometric analyses, in the context of brain-behavior predictions the possible differential impact of ICV correction on anatomical features and subgroups within the population has yet to be systematically investigated. In this work, we evaluate the effect of proportional ICV correction on sex-independent and sex-specific predictive models of individual cognitive abilities across multiple anatomical properties (surface area, gray matter volume, and cortical thickness) in healthy young adults (Human Connectome Project; n = 1013, 548 females) and typically developing children (Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study; n = 1823, 979 females). We demonstrate that ICV correction generally reduces predictive accuracies derived from surface area and gray matter volume, while increasing predictive accuracies based on cortical thickness in both adults and children. Furthermore, the extent to which predictive models generalize across sexes and age groups depends on ICV correction: models based on surface area and gray matter volume are more generalizable without ICV correction, while models based on cortical thickness are more generalizable with ICV correction. Finally, the observed neuroanatomical features predictive of cognitive abilities are unique across age groups regardless of ICV correction, but whether they are shared or unique across sexes (within age groups) depends on ICV correction. These findings highlight the importance of considering individual differences in ICV, and show that proportional ICV correction does not remove the effects of cranial volume from anatomical measurements and can introduce ICV bias where previously there was none. ICV correction choices affect not just the strength of the relationships captured, but also the conclusions drawn regarding the neuroanatomical features that underlie those relationships.

Goal-specific brain MRI harmonization.

There is significant interest in pooling magnetic resonance image (MRI) data from multiple datasets to enable mega-analysis. Harmonization is typically performed to reduce heterogeneity when pooling MRI data across datasets. Most MRI harmonization algorithms do not explicitly consider downstream application performance during harmonization. However, the choice of downstream application might influence what might be considered as study-specific confounds. Therefore, ignoring downstream applications during harmonization might potentially limit downstream performance. Here we propose a goal-specific harmonization framework that utilizes downstream application performance to regularize the harmonization procedure. Our framework can be integrated with a wide variety of harmonization models based on deep neural networks, such as the recently proposed conditional variational autoencoder (cVAE) harmonization model. Three datasets from three different continents with a total of 2787 participants and 10,085 anatomical T1 scans were used for evaluation. We found that cVAE removed more dataset differences than the widely used ComBat model, but at the expense of removing desirable biological information as measured by downstream prediction of mini mental state examination (MMSE) scores and clinical diagnoses. On the other hand, our goal-specific cVAE (gcVAE) was able to remove as much dataset differences as cVAE, while improving downstream cross-sectional prediction of MMSE scores and clinical diagnoses.

Comparison of individualized behavioral predictions across anatomical, diffusion and functional connectivity MRI.

A fundamental goal across the neurosciences is the characterization of relationships linking brain anatomy, functioning, and behavior. Although various MRI modalities have been developed to probe these relationships, direct comparisons of their ability to predict behavior have been lacking. Here, we compared the ability of anatomical T1, diffusion and functional MRI (fMRI) to predict behavior at an individual level. Cortical thickness, area and volume were extracted from anatomical T1 images. Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) and approximate Neurite Orientation Dispersion and Density Imaging (NODDI) models were fitted to the diffusion images. The resulting metrics were projected to the Tract-Based Spatial Statistics (TBSS) skeleton. We also ran probabilistic tractography for the diffusion images, from which we extracted the stream count, average stream length, and the average of each DTI and NODDI metric across tracts connecting each pair of brain regions. Functional connectivity (FC) was extracted from both task and resting-state fMRI. Individualized prediction of a wide range of behavioral measures were performed using kernel ridge regression, linear ridge regression and elastic net regression. Consistency of the results were investigated with the Human Connectome Project (HCP) and Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) datasets. In both datasets, FC-based models gave the best prediction performance, regardless of regression model or behavioral measure. This was especially true for the cognitive component. Furthermore, all modalities were able to predict cognition better than other behavioral components. Combining all modalities improved prediction of cognition, but not other behavioral components. Finally, across all behaviors, combining resting and task FC yielded prediction performance similar to combining all modalities. Overall, our study suggests that in the case of healthy children and young adults, behaviorally-relevant information in T1 and diffusion features might reflect a subset of the variance captured by FC.