RESUMEN
Overwintering conditions have long been known to affect fish survival and year-class strength as well as determine the poleward range limit of many temperate fishes. Despite this known importance, mechanisms controlling overwintering mortality are poorly understood and the tolerance of marine fishes to the combined effects of winter temperature, salinity, and size is rarely quantified. In recent years, higher abundances of the temperate Serranid, black sea bass Centropristis striata, have been observed at latitudes further north than their traditional range suggesting that warming water temperatures, particularly during winter, may be facilitating the establishment of a population at more northern latitudes. To examine overwintering survival of C. striata, the combined effects of temperature, salinity and body mass were quantified in laboratory experiments. We identified 6°C as the lower incipient lethal temperature for C. striata, below which fish cease feeding, lose weight rapidly and die within 32 days. A short cold exposure experiment indicated that temperatures below 5°C resulted in mortality events that continued even as the temperature increased slowly to 10°C, indicating that even short cold snaps can impact survival and recruitment in this species. Importantly, fish in lower salinity lived significantly longer than fish at higher salinity at both 3°C and 5°C, suggesting that osmoregulatory stress plays a role in overwintering mortality in this species. Size was not a critical factor in determining overwintering survival of young-of-the-year (YOY) C. striata. Overwintering survival of YOY C. striata can be effectively predicted as a function of temperature and salinity and their interaction with an accelerated failure model to project future range limits. Identifying temperature thresholds may be a tractable way to incorporate environmental factors into population models and stock assessment models in fishes.