Spatio-temporal patterns of excess mortality from non-COVID causes of death in the United States, march-December 2020.

Objectives To estimate the burden of excess mortality from 17 underlying causes of death between March-December 2020 in the United States, and to compare trends in excess deaths from non-COVID causes vs. from COVID-19. Methods Using time series models, we estimated monthly counts of all-cause and cause-specific excess deaths. We stratified by geographic region and compared temporal trends in excess deaths from non-COVID causes to trends in deaths attributed to COVID-19. Results Of approximately 500,000 excess deaths, 70% were attributed to COVID-19. We observed increases in several underlying causes of death, ranging from a 3% increase in kidney disease deaths to a 24% increase in homicides, as well as decreases in deaths from cancer (-0.3%), influenza and pneumonia (-2%), chronic lower respiratory disease (-3%), and suicide (-7%). Trends in excess deaths from cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and Alzheimer's disease closely mirrored trends in deaths from COVID-19. Trends in excess liver disease, homicide, suicide, and motor vehicle accident deaths were negatively correlated with trends in deaths from COVID-19. There was wide regional variation in excess death rates for some causes of death, including a disproportionate increase in homicide and motor vehicle accident deaths in the Great Lakes, and a sustained reduction in cancer deaths in the Mideast and New England. Conclusions Increases in cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and Alzheimer's disease deaths from March-December 2020 likely reflect healthcare system disruptions or acute complications of COVID-19. Excess deaths from homicide and liver disease are more likely to reflect social and economic effects of the emerging pandemic, or other separate causes.

Evaluating Effects of Multilevel Interventions on Disparity in Health and Healthcare Decisions.

In this paper, we introduce an analytic approach for assessing effects of multilevel interventions on disparity in health outcomes and health-related decision outcomes (i.e., a treatment decision made by a healthcare provider). We outline common challenges that are encountered in interventional health disparity research, including issues of effect scale and interpretation, choice of covariates for adjustment and its impact on effect magnitude, and the methodological challenges involved with studying decision-based outcomes. To address these challenges, we introduce total effects of interventions on disparity for the entire sample and the treated sample, and corresponding direct effects that are relevant for decision-based outcomes. We provide weighting and g-computation estimators in the presence of study attrition and sketch a simulation-based procedure for sample size determinations based on precision (e.g., confidence interval width). We validate our proposed methods through a brief simulation study and apply our approach to evaluate the RICH LIFE intervention, a multilevel healthcare intervention designed to reduce racial and ethnic disparities in hypertension control.

Evaluating Clinic-Based Interventions to Reduce Racial Differences in Mortality Among People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Mortality remains elevated among Black versus White adults receiving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care in the United States. We evaluated the effects of hypothetical clinic-based interventions on this mortality gap. METHODS: We computed 3-year mortality under observed treatment patterns among >40 000 Black and >30 000 White adults entering HIV care in the United States from 1996 to 2019. We then used inverse probability weights to impose hypothetical interventions, including immediate treatment and guideline-based follow-up. We considered 2 scenarios: "universal" delivery of interventions to all patients and "focused" delivery of interventions to Black patients while White patients continued to follow observed treatment patterns. RESULTS: Under observed treatment patterns, 3-year mortality was 8% among White patients and 9% among Black patients, for a difference of 1 percentage point (95% confidence interval [CI], .5-1.4). The difference was reduced to 0.5% under universal immediate treatment (95% CI, -.4% to 1.3%) and to 0.2% under universal immediate treatment combined with guideline-based follow-up (95% CI, -1.0% to 1.4%). Under the focused delivery of both interventions to Black patients, the Black-White difference in 3-year mortality was -1.4% (95% CI, -2.3% to -.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Clinical interventions, particularly those focused on enhancing the care of Black patients, could have significantly reduced the mortality gap between Black and White patients entering HIV care from 1996 to 2019.

Association of Race and Ethnicity With Initial Prescription of Antiretroviral Therapy Among People With HIV in the US.

Importance: Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) is currently the guideline-recommended first-line treatment for HIV. Delayed prescription of INSTI-containing ART may amplify differences and inequities in health outcomes. Objectives: To estimate racial and ethnic differences in the prescription of INSTI-containing ART among adults newly entering HIV care in the US and to examine variation in these differences over time in relation to changes in treatment guidelines. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective observational study of 42 841 adults entering HIV care from October 12, 2007, when the first INSTI was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, to April 30, 2019, at more than 200 clinical sites contributing to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Exposures: Combined race and ethnicity as reported in patient medical records. Main Outcomes and Measures: Probability of initial prescription of ART within 1 month of care entry and probability of being prescribed INSTI-containing ART. Differences among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients compared with non-Hispanic White patients were estimated by calendar year and time period in relation to changes in national guidelines on the timing of treatment initiation and recommended initial treatment regimens. Results: Of 41 263 patients with information on race and ethnicity, 19 378 (47%) as non-Hispanic Black, 6798 (16%) identified as Hispanic, and 13 539 (33%) as non-Hispanic White; 36 394 patients (85%) were male, and the median age was 42 years (IQR, 30 to 51). From 2007-2015, when guidelines recommended treatment initiation based on CD4+ cell count, the probability of ART initiation within 1 month of care entry was 45% among White patients, 45% among Black patients (difference, 0% [95% CI, -1% to 1%]), and 51% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 4% to 7%]). From 2016-2019, when guidelines strongly recommended treating all patients regardless of CD4+ cell count, this probability increased to 66% among White patients, 68% among Black patients (difference, 2% [95% CI, -1% to 5%]), and 71% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 1% to 9%]). INSTIs were prescribed to 22% of White patients and only 17% of Black patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -4%]) and 17% of Hispanic patients (difference, -5% [95% CI, -7% to -3%]) from 2009-2014, when INSTIs were approved as initial therapy but were not yet guideline recommended. Significant differences persisted for Black patients (difference, -6% [95% CI, -8% to -4%]) but not for Hispanic patients (difference, -1% [95% CI, -4% to 2%]) compared with White patients from 2014-2017, when INSTI-containing ART was a guideline-recommended option for initial therapy; differences by race and ethnicity were not statistically significant from 2017-2019, when INSTI-containing ART was the single recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults entering HIV care within a large US research consortium from 2007-2019, the 1-month probability of ART prescription was not significantly different across most races and ethnicities, although Black and Hispanic patients were significantly less likely than White patients to receive INSTI-containing ART in earlier time periods but not after INSTIs became guideline-recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Additional research is needed to understand the underlying racial and ethnic differences and whether the differences in prescribing were associated with clinical outcomes.

Generativity and Engagement in Grandparenting Activities Among Older Adults in Northern Sri Lanka.

Generativity refers to the desire to pass on one's skills, knowledge, and wisdom to future generations; this may be a clear indicator of the likelihood of older adults investing time and effort in engagement with their grandchildren. This cross-sectional study examines the relationship between generative beliefs and an index of multiple potential grandparenting activities. The data come from a convenience sample of 79 grandparents (aged 55+) living in Sri Lanka, a society experiencing rapid growth in its population of older adults. Regression analyses demonstrate that more endorsement of generative beliefs among older adults is associated with increased engagement in various grandparenting activities, with the strongest associations with reading, singing songs, and helping grandchildren with schoolwork or teaching them. Our findings suggest that generativity may be important for understanding the relationship between grandparenting and improved well-being for older adults.

Grandparenting activities and mental health in Northern Sri Lanka.

Grandparenting activities are of increasing interest to researchers seeking to understand reduced social engagement and depression among aging adults. Heterogeneity in the population and caretaking roles complicate its measurement. We piloted a measure of grandparenting activities among 79 grandparents (aged 55+) in Sri Lanka and correlated those activity levels with psychological distress. Second, we explored whether the aforementioned correlation varied by grandparent functional limitations. We found that greater engagement in generative grandparenting activities was correlated with lower distress, and that association was stronger among grandparents with more functional limitations. We discuss possible explanations and implications of these findings.

Racial/Ethnic and Age Differences in the Direct and Indirect Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on US Mortality.

Objectives. To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on overall, race/ethnicity‒specific, and age-specific mortality in 2020 in the United States. Methods. Using surveillance data, we modeled expected mortality, compared it to observed mortality, and estimated the share of "excess" mortality that was indirectly attributable to the pandemic versus directly attributed to COVID-19. We present absolute risks and proportions of total pandemic-related mortality, stratified by race/ethnicity and age. Results. We observed 16.6 excess deaths per 10 000 US population in 2020; 84% were directly attributed to COVID-19. The indirect effects of the pandemic accounted for 16% of excess mortality, with proportions as low as 0% among adults aged 85 years and older and more than 60% among those aged 15 to 44 years. Indirect causes accounted for a higher proportion of excess mortality among racially minoritized groups (e.g., 32% among Black Americans and 23% among Native Americans) compared with White Americans (11%). Conclusions. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality and health disparities are underestimated when only deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 are considered. An equitable public health response to the pandemic should also consider its indirect effects on mortality. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):154-164. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306541).

Community-facility linkage models and maternal and infant health outcomes in Malawi's PMTCT/ART program: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In sub-Saharan Africa, 3 community-facility linkage (CFL) models-Expert Clients, Community Health Workers (CHWs), and Mentor Mothers-have been widely implemented to support pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBFW) living with HIV and their infants to access and sustain care for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT), yet their comparative impact under real-world conditions is poorly understood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We sought to estimate the effects of CFL models on a primary outcome of maternal loss to follow-up (LTFU), and secondary outcomes of maternal longitudinal viral suppression and infant "poor outcome" (encompassing documented HIV-positive test result, LTFU, or death), in Malawi's PMTCT/ART program. We sampled 30 of 42 high-volume health facilities ("sites") in 5 Malawi districts for study inclusion. At each site, we reviewed medical records for all newly HIV-diagnosed PBFW entering the PMTCT program between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017, and, for pregnancies resulting in live births, their HIV-exposed infants, yielding 2,589 potentially eligible mother-infant pairs. Of these, 2,049 (79.1%) had an available HIV treatment record and formed the study cohort. A randomly selected subset of 817 (40.0%) cohort members underwent a field survey, consisting of a questionnaire and HIV biomarker assessment. Survey responses and biomarker results were used to impute CFL model exposure, maternal viral load, and early infant diagnosis (EID) outcomes for those missing these measures to enrich data in the larger cohort. We applied sampling weights in all statistical analyses to account for the differing proportions of facilities sampled by district. Of the 2,049 mother-infant pairs analyzed, 62.2% enrolled in PMTCT at a primary health center, at which time 43.7% of PBFW were ≤24 years old, and 778 (38.0%) received the Expert Client model, 640 (31.2%) the CHW model, 345 (16.8%) the Mentor Mother model, 192 (9.4%) ≥2 models, and 94 (4.6%) no model. Maternal LTFU varied by model, with LTFU being more likely among Mentor Mother model recipients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14, 1.84; p = 0.003) than Expert Client recipients. Over 2 years from HIV diagnosis, PBFW supported by CHWs spent 14.3% (95% CI: 2.6%, 26.1%; p = 0.02) more days in an optimal state of antiretroviral therapy (ART) retention with viral suppression than women supported by Expert Clients. Infants receiving the Mentor Mother model (aHR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.52; p = 0.04) and ≥2 models (aHR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.20, 1.74; p < 0.001) were more likely to undergo EID testing by age 6 months than infants supported by Expert Clients. Infants receiving the CHW and Mentor Mother models were 1.15 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.67; p = 0.44) and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.50, 1.42; p = 0.51) times as likely, respectively, to experience a poor outcome by 1 year than those supported by Expert Clients, but not significantly so. Study limitations include possible residual confounding, which may lead to inaccurate conclusions about the impacts of CFL models, uncertain generalizability of findings to other settings, and missing infant medical record data that limited the precision of infant outcome measurement. CONCLUSIONS: In this descriptive study, we observed widespread reach of CFL models in Malawi, with favorable maternal outcomes in the CHW model and greater infant EID testing uptake in the Mentor Mother model. Our findings point to important differences in maternal and infant HIV outcomes by CFL model along the PMTCT continuum and suggest future opportunities to identify key features of CFL models driving these outcome differences.

A Geography of Risk: Structural Racism and Coronavirus Disease 2019 Mortality in the United States.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is disproportionately burdening racial and ethnic minority groups in the United States. Higher risks of infection and mortality among racialized minorities are a consequence of structural racism, reflected in specific policies that date back centuries and persist today. Yet our surveillance activities do not reflect what we know about how racism structures risk. When measuring racial and ethnic disparities in deaths due to COVID-19, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention statistically accounts for the geographic distribution of deaths throughout the United States to reflect the fact that deaths are concentrated in areas with different racial and ethnic distributions from those of the larger United States. In this commentary, we argue that such an approach misses an important driver of disparities in COVID-19 mortality, namely the historical forces that determine where individuals live, work, and play, and that consequently determine their risk of dying from COVID-19. We explain why controlling for geography downplays the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on racialized minority groups in the United States. Finally, we offer recommendations for the analysis of surveillance data to estimate racial disparities, including shifting from distribution-based to risk-based measures, to help inform a more effective and equitable public health response to the pandemic.

Adverse childhood experiences and depression among women in rural Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) are a common pathway to adult depression. This pathway is particularly important during the perinatal period when women are at an elevated risk for depression. However, this relationship has not been explored in South Asia. This study estimates the association between ACEs and women's (N = 889) depression at 36 months postpartum in rural Pakistan. METHOD: Data come from the Bachpan Cohort study. To capture ACEs, an adapted version of the ACE-International Questionnaire was used. Women's depression was measured using both major depressive episodes (MDE) and depressive symptom severity. To assess the relationship between ACEs and depression, log-Poisson models were used for MDE and linear regression models for symptom severity. RESULTS: The majority (58%) of women experienced at least one ACE domain, most commonly home violence (38.3%), followed by neglect (20.1%). Women experiencing four or more ACEs had the most pronounced elevation of symptom severity (ß = 3.90; 95% CL = 2.13, 5.67) and MDE (PR = 2.43; 95% CL = 1.37, 4.32). Symptom severity (ß = 2.88; 95% CL = 1.46, 4.31), and MDE (PR = 2.01; 95% CL = 1.27, 3.18) were greater for those experiencing community violence or family distress (ß = 2.04; 95%; CL = 0.83, 3.25) (PR = 1.77; 95% CL = 1.12, 2.79). CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that ACEs are substantively distinct and have unique relationships to depression. They signal a need to address women's ACEs as part of perinatal mental health interventions and highlight women's lifelong experiences as important factors to understanding current mental health. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02111915 . Registered 11 April 2014. NCT02658994 . Registered 22 January 2016. Both trials were prospectively registered.

The anxiety care continuum and its association with viral suppression among persons with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: It is unclear how often anxiety is diagnosed and treated and whether anxiety treatment is associated with improved viral suppression in persons with HIV. In this study, we characterized the anxiety care continuum and its association with viral suppression in a large urban HIV clinic in the United States. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. METHODS: We described the anxiety care continuum by combining data on self-reported anxiety symptoms, engagement in mental health care, clinical diagnoses and prescriptions from 1,967 persons receiving HIV care and treatment in Baltimore, Maryland, from 2014-23. We examined cross-sectional associations with viral suppression. All analyses were stratified by sex and race/ethnicity; a secondary analysis adjusted for age, years in care, and depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Nearly 1 in 5 patients reported mild-severe symptoms of anxiety but were not currently receiving mental health care or pharmacologic treatment for anxiety; 6% of patients reported anxiety symptoms but were receiving treatment, and 7% had been treated for anxiety that was currently in remission. The prevalence of viral suppression ranged from 87-89% across the anxiety care continuum except among patients with untreated moderate-severe anxiety, only 81% of whom were virally suppressed (95% CI: 80, 83). In adjusted models, untreated moderate-severe anxiety remained associated with viral non-suppression across demographic groups. CONCLUSION: We observed a robust association between untreated anxiety and viral non-suppression in a large urban cohort of persons with HIV. Screening for anxiety may identify patients with unmet mental health care needs who face barriers to maintaining viral suppression.

Association between switching to integrase strand transfer inhibitors and incident diabetes in people with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: Integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTI) are associated with weight gain in people with HIV (PWH), but their impact on diabetes is unclear. We evaluated the association between switching from nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) or protease inhibitors (PI) to INSTI and incident diabetes. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. METHODS: We included PWH aged ≥18 years from the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort (2007-2023) without history of diabetes who had used NNRTI or PI for ≥180 days. We followed participants up to 10 years from HIV primary care visits where they switched to INSTI or continued NNRTI or PI. We estimated the hazard of incident diabetes associated with switching to INSTI using weighted Cox regression with robust variance estimator. RESULTS: We included 2075 PWH who attended 22 116 visits where they continued NNRTI or PI and 631 visits where they switched to INSTI. Switching to INSTI was associated with a weighted hazard ratio (wHR) of 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.77-1.59] for incident diabetes. The association if no weight gain occurred during the first two years was not qualitatively different (wHR 1.22; 95% CI, 0.82-1.80). In a posthoc analysis, switching to INSTI conferred a significant wHR of 1.79 (95% CI, 1.13-2.84) for diabetes within the first two years but not after. CONCLUSIONS: Switching from NNRTI or PI to INSTI did not significantly increase overall diabetes incidence in PWH, although there may be elevated risk in the first two years. These findings can inform considerations when switching to INSTI-based regimens.

Maternal adverse childhood experiences on child growth and development in rural Pakistan: An observational cohort study.

Maternal adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have significant impacts on the next generation with links to negative birth outcomes, impaired cognitive development, and increased socioemotional problems in children. However, not all types or levels of adversity are similarly deleterious and research from diverse contexts is needed to better understand why and how intergenerational transmission of adversity occurs. We examined the role of maternal ACEs on children's growth, cognitive, and socioemotional development at 36 months postpartum in rural Pakistan. We used data from 877 mother-child dyads in the Bachpan Cohort, a birth cohort study. Maternal ACEs were captured using an adapted version of the ACE-International Questionnaire. Outcomes at 36 months of age included child growth using the WHO growth z-scores, fine motor and receptive language development assessed with the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, and socioemotional and behavioral development measured with the Ages and Stages Questionnaire: Socioemotional and Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. To estimate the associations between maternal ACEs and child outcomes, we used multivariable generalized linear models with inverse probability weights to account for sampling and loss to follow-up. Over half of mothers in our sample (58%) experienced at least one ACE. Emotional abuse, physical abuse, and emotional neglect were the most commonly reported ACEs. We found null relationships between the number of maternal ACEs and child growth. Maternal ACEs were associated with higher fine motor and receptive language development and worse socioemotional and behavioral outcomes. Maternal ACE domains had similarly varying relationships with child outcomes. Our findings highlight the complexity of intergenerational associations between maternal ACEs and children's growth and development. Further work is necessary to examine these relationships across cultural contexts and identify moderating factors to mitigate potential negative intergenerational effects.

Impact of subgroup-specific heterogeneities and dynamic changes in mortality rates on forecasted population size, deaths, and age distribution of persons receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States: a computer simulation study.

PURPOSE: Model-based forecasts of population size, deaths, and age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) are helpful for public health and clinical services planning but are influenced by subgroup-specific heterogeneities and changes in mortality rates. METHODS: Using an agent-based simulation of PWH in the United States, we examined the impact of distinct approaches to parametrizing mortality rates on forecasted epidemiology of PWH on antiretroviral treatment (ART). We first estimated mortality rates among (1) all PWH, (2) sex-specific, (3) sex-and-race/ethnicity-specific, and (4) sex-race/ethnicity-and-HIV-acquisition-risk-specific subgroups. We then assessed each scenario by (1) allowing unrestricted reductions in age-specific mortality rates over time and (2) restricting the mortality rates among PWH to subgroup-specific mortality thresholds from the general population. RESULTS: Among the eight scenarios examined, those lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates forecasted the lowest number of deaths among all PWH and 9 of the 15 subgroups through 2030. The forecasted overall number and age distribution of people with a history of injection drug use were sensitive to inclusion of subgroup-specific mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Our results underscore the potential risk of underestimating future deaths by models lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities in mortality rates, and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates.