Prognostic factors for liver metastasis in patients with small intestinal stromal tumor: A retrospective analysis of surveillance, epidemiology, and end results.

BACKGROUND: Liver metastasis (LIM) is the most common distant site of metastasis in small intestinal stromal tumors (SISTs). The aim of this study was to determine the risk and prognostic factors associated with LIM in patients with SISTs. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with gastrointestinal stromal tumors between 2010 and 2019 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models, as well as a Cox regression model were used to explore the risk factors associated with the development and prognosis of LIM. Additionally, the overall survival (OS) of patients with LIM was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Furthermore, a predictive nomogram was constructed, and the model's performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 1582 eligible patients with SISTs were included, among whom 146 (9.2%) were diagnosed with LIM. Poor tumor grade, absence of surgery, later T-stage, and no chemotherapy were associated with an increased risk of developing LIM. The nomogram prediction model achieved an AUC of 0.810, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.773-0.846, indicating good performance, and the calibration curve showed excellent accuracy in predicting LIM. The OS rate of patients with LIM was significantly lower than that of patients without LIM (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with SISTs who are at high risk of developing LIM deserve more attention during follow-up, as LIM can significantly affect patient prognosis. The nomogram demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for predicting LIM.

Automated machine learning for early prediction of acute kidney injury in acute pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) represents a frequent and grave complication associated with acute pancreatitis (AP), substantially elevating both mortality rates and the financial burden of hospitalization. The aim of our study is to construct a predictive model utilizing automated machine learning (AutoML) algorithms for the early prediction of AKI in patients with AP. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed patients who were diagnosed with AP in our hospital from January 2017 to December 2021. These patients were randomly allocated into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7:3. To develop predictive models for each set, we employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm along with AutoML. A nomogram was developed based on multivariate logistic regression analysis outcomes. The model's efficacy was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Additionally, the performance of the model constructed via AutoML was evaluated using decision curve analysis (DCA), feature importance, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) plots, and locally interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME). RESULTS: This study incorporated a total of 437 patients who met the inclusion criteria. Out of these, 313 were assigned to the training cohort and 124 to the validation cohort. In the training and validation cohorts, AKI occurred in 68 (21.7%) and 29(23.4%) patients, respectively. Comparative analysis revealed that the AutoML models exhibited enhanced performance over traditional logistic regression (LR). Furthermore, the deep learning (DL) model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy, evidenced by an area under the ROC curve of 0.963 in the training set and 0.830 in the validation set, surpassing other comparative models. The key variables identified as significant in the DL model within the training dataset included creatinine (Cr), urea (Urea), international normalized ratio (INR), etiology, smoking, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), hypertension, prothrombin time (PT), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and diabetes. CONCLUSION: The AutoML model, utilizing DL algorithm, offers considerable clinical significance in the early detection of AKI among patients with AP.

Application Value of the Automated Machine Learning Model Based on Modified Computed Tomography Severity Index Combined With Serological Indicators in the Early Prediction of Severe Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Machine learning (ML) algorithms are widely applied in building models of medicine due to their powerful studying and generalizing ability. To assess the value of the Modified Computed Tomography Severity Index (MCTSI) combined with serological indicators for early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) by automated ML (AutoML). PATIENTS AND METHODS: The clinical data, of the patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) hospitalized in Hospital 1 and hospital 2 from January 2017 to December 2021, were retrospectively analyzed. Serological indicators within 24 hours of admission were collected. MCTSI score was completed by noncontrast computed tomography within 24 hours of admission. Data from the hospital 1 were adopted for training, and data from the hospital 2 were adopted for external validation. The diagnosis of AP and SAP was based on the 2012 revised Atlanta classification of AP. Models were built using traditional logistic regression and AutoML analysis with 4 types of algorithms. The performance of models was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve, the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis based on logistic regression and decision curve analysis, feature importance, SHapley Additive exPlanation Plot, and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanation based on AutoML. RESULTS: A total of 499 patients were used to develop the models in the training data set. An independent data set of 201 patients was used to test the models. The model developed by the Deep Neural Net (DL) outperformed other models with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (areas under the curve) of 0.907 in the test set. Furthermore, among these AutoML models, the DL and gradient boosting machine models achieved the highest sensitivity values, both exceeding 0.800. CONCLUSION: The AutoML model based on the MCTSI score combined with serological indicators has good predictive value for SAP in the early stage.

Automated machine learning for predicting liver metastasis in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor: a SEER-based analysis.

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are a rare type of tumor that can develop liver metastasis (LIM), significantly impacting the patient's prognosis. This study aimed to predict LIM in GIST patients by constructing machine learning (ML) algorithms to assist clinicians in the decision-making process for treatment. Retrospective analysis was performed using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and cases from 2010 to 2015 were assigned to the developing sets, while cases from 2016 to 2017 were assigned to the testing set. Missing values were addressed using the multiple imputation technique. Four algorithms were utilized to construct the models, comprising traditional logistic regression (LR) and automated machine learning (AutoML) analysis such as gradient boost machine (GBM), deep neural net (DL), and generalized linear model (GLM). We evaluated the models' performance using LR-based metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA), as well as AutoML-based metrics, such as feature importance, SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) Plots, and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanation (LIME). A total of 6207 patients were included in this study, with 2683, 1780, and 1744 patients allocated to the training, validation, and test sets, respectively. Among the different models evaluated, the GBM model demonstrated the highest performance in the training, validation, and test cohorts, with respective AUC values of 0.805, 0.780, and 0.795. Furthermore, the GBM model outperformed other AutoML models in terms of accuracy, achieving 0.747, 0.700, and 0.706 in the training, validation, and test cohorts, respectively. Additionally, the study revealed that tumor size and tumor location were the most significant predictors influencing the AutoML model's ability to accurately predict LIM. The AutoML model utilizing the GBM algorithm for GIST patients can effectively predict the risk of LIM and provide clinicians with a reference for developing individualized treatment plans.

Development and validation of a multimodal model in predicting severe acute pancreatitis based on radiomics and deep learning.

OBJECTIVE: Aim to establish a multimodal model for predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) using machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL). METHODS: In this multicentre retrospective study, patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis at admission were enrolled from January 2017 to December 2021. Clinical information within 24 h and CT scans within 72 h of admission were collected. First, we trained Model α based on clinical features selected by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis. Second, radiomics features were extracted from 3D-CT scans and Model ß was developed on the features after dimensionality reduction using principal component analysis. Third, Model γ was trained on 2D-CT images. Lastly, a multimodal model, namely PrismSAP, was constructed based on aforementioned features in the training set. The predictive accuracy of PrismSAP was verified in the validation and internal test sets and further validated in the external test set. Model performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, recall, precision and F1-score. RESULTS: A total of 1,221 eligible patients were randomly split into a training set (n = 864), a validation set (n = 209) and an internal test set (n = 148). Data of 266 patients were for external testing. In the external test set, PrismSAP performed best with the highest AUC of 0.916 (0.873-0.960) among all models [Model α: 0.709 (0.618-0.800); Model ß: 0.749 (0.675-0.824); Model γ: 0.687 (0.592-0.782); MCTSI: 0.778 (0.698-0.857); RANSON: 0.642 (0.559-0.725); BISAP: 0.751 (0.668-0.833); SABP: 0.710 (0.621-0.798)]. CONCLUSION: The proposed multimodal model outperformed any single-modality models and traditional scoring systems.

Identification of gastric signet ring cell carcinoma based on endoscopic images using few-shot learning.

BACKGROUND: Deep learning (DL) models perform poorly when there are limited gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC) samples. Few-shot learning (FSL) can address the small sample problem. METHODS: EfficientNetV2-S was first pretrained on ImageNet and then pretrained on esophageal endoscopic images (i.e., base classes: normal vs. early cancer vs. advanced cancer) using transfer learning. Second, images of gastric benign ulcers, adenocarcinoma and SRCC, i.e., novel classes (n = 50 per class), were included. Image features were extracted as vectors using the dual pretrained EfficientNetV2-S. Finally, a k-nearest neighbor classifier was used to identify SRCC. The above proposed 3-way 3-shot FSL framework was conducted in three rounds. RESULTS: Dual pretrained FSL performed better than single pretrained FSL, endoscopists and traditional EfficientNetV2-S models. Dual pretrained FSL obtained the highest accuracy (79.4%), sensitivity (68.8%), recall (68.8%), precision (69.3%) and F1-score (0.691), and the senior endoscopist achieved the highest specificity of 93.6% when identifying SRCC. The macro-AUC and F1-score for dual pretraining (0.763 and 0.703, respectively) were higher than those for single pretraining (0.656 and 0.537, respectively), along with endoscopists and traditional EfficientNetV2-S models. The 2-way 3-shot FSL also performed better. CONCLUSION: The proposed FSL framework showed practical performance in the differentiation of SRCC on endoscopic images, suggesting the potential of FSL in the computer-aided diagnosis for rare diseases.

Automated machine learning to predict the difficulty for endoscopic resection of gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumor.

Background: Accurate preoperative assessment of surgical difficulty is crucial to the success of the surgery and patient safety. This study aimed to evaluate the difficulty for endoscopic resection (ER) of gastric gastrointestinal stromal tumors (gGISTs) using multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms. Methods: From December 2010 to December 2022, 555 patients with gGISTs in multi-centers were retrospectively studied and assigned to a training, validation, and test cohort. A difficult case was defined as meeting one of the following criteria: an operative time ≥ 90 min, severe intraoperative bleeding, or conversion to laparoscopic resection. Five types of algorithms were employed in building models, including traditional logistic regression (LR) and automated machine learning (AutoML) analysis (gradient boost machine (GBM), deep neural net (DL), generalized linear model (GLM), and default random forest (DRF)). We assessed the performance of the models using the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) based on LR, as well as feature importance, SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) Plots and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanation (LIME) based on AutoML. Results: The GBM model outperformed other models with an AUC of 0.894 in the validation and 0.791 in the test cohorts. Furthermore, the GBM model achieved the highest accuracy among these AutoML models, with 0.935 and 0.911 in the validation and test cohorts, respectively. In addition, it was found that tumor size and endoscopists' experience were the most prominent features that significantly impacted the AutoML model's performance in predicting the difficulty for ER of gGISTs. Conclusion: The AutoML model based on the GBM algorithm can accurately predict the difficulty for ER of gGISTs before surgery.

[Application of machine learning model based on XGBoost algorithm in early prediction of patients with acute severe pancreatitis].

OBJECTIVE: To establish a machine learning model based on extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm for early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), and explore its predictive efficiency. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted. The patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) who admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021 were enrolled. Demography information, etiology, past history, and clinical indicators and imaging data within 48 hours of admission were collected according to the medical record system and image system, and the modified CT severity index (MCTSI), Ranson score, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) and acute pancreatitis risk score (SABP) were calculated. The data sets of the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University were randomly divided into training set and validation set according to 8 : 2. Based on XGBoost algorithm, the SAP prediction model was constructed on the basis of hyperparameter adjustment by 5-fold cross validation and loss function. The data set of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University was served as independent test set. The predictive efficacy of the XGBoost model was evaluated by drawing the receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), and compared it with the traditional AP related severity score; variable importance ranking diagram and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) diagram were drawn to visually explain the model. RESULTS: A total of 1 183 AP patients were enrolled finally, of which 129 (10.9%) developed SAP. Among the patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University and Changshu Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University, there were 786 patients in the training set and 197 in the validation set; 200 patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were used as the test set. Analysis of all three datasets showed that patients who advanced to SAP exhibited pathological manifestation such as abnormal respiratory function, coagulation function, liver and kidney function, and lipid metabolism. Based on the XGBoost algorithm, an SAP prediction model was constructed, and ROC curve analysis showed that the accuracy for prediction of SAP reached 0.830, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.927, which was significantly improved compared with the traditional scoring systems including MCTSI, Ranson, BISAP and SABP, the accuracy was 0.610, 0.690, 0.763, 0.625, and the AUC was 0.689, 0.631, 0.875, and 0.770, respectively. The feature importance analysis based on the XGBoost model showed that the top ten items ranked by the importance of model features were admission pleural effusion (0.119), albumin (Alb, 0.049), triglycerides (TG, 0.036), Ca2+ (0.034), prothrombin time (PT, 0.031), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS, 0.031), C-reactive protein (CRP, 0.031), platelet count (PLT, 0.030), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, 0.029), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP, 0.028). The above indicators were of great significance for the XGBoost model to predict SAP. The SHAP contribution analysis based on the XGBoost model showed that the risk of SAP increased significantly when patients had pleural effusion and decreased Alb. CONCLUSIONS: A SAP prediction scoring system was established based on the machine automatic learning XGBoost algorithm, which can predict the SAP risk of patients within 48 hours of admission with good accuracy.

Automated Machine Learning for the Early Prediction of the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis in Hospitals.

Background: Machine learning (ML) algorithms are widely applied in building models of medicine due to their powerful studying and generalizing ability. This study aims to explore different ML models for early identification of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) among patients hospitalized for acute pancreatitis. Methods: This retrospective study enrolled patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) from multiple centers. Data from the First Affiliated Hospital and Changshu No. 1 Hospital of Soochow University were adopted for training and internal validation, and data from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were adopted for external validation from January 2017 to December 2021. The diagnosis of AP and SAP was based on the 2012 revised Atlanta classification of acute pancreatitis. Models were built using traditional logistic regression (LR) and automated machine learning (AutoML) analysis with five types of algorithms. The performance of models was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) based on LR and feature importance, SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) Plot, and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanation (LIME) based on AutoML. Results: A total of 1,012 patients were included in this study to develop the AutoML models in the training/validation dataset. An independent dataset of 212 patients was used to test the models. The model developed by the gradient boost machine (GBM) outperformed other models with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.937 in the validation set and an AUC of 0.945 in the test set. Furthermore, the GBM model achieved the highest sensitivity value of 0.583 among these AutoML models. The model developed by eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) achieved the highest specificity value of 0.980 and the highest accuracy of 0.958 in the test set. Conclusions: The AutoML model based on the GBM algorithm for early prediction of SAP showed evident clinical practicability.