Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting metabolic-associated fatty liver disease in the Chinese physical examination population.

AIM: We aim to develop and validate a nomogram including readily available clinical and laboratory indicators to predict the risk of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) in the Chinese physical examination population. METHODS: The annual physical examination data of Chinese adults from 2016 to 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. We extracted the clinical data of 138 664 subjects and randomized participants to the development and validation groups (7:3). Significant predictors associated with MAFLD were identified by using univariate and random forest analyses, and a nomogram was constructed to predict the risk of MAFLD based on a Lasso logistic model. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis were used to verify the discrimination, calibration, and clinical practicability of the nomogram, respectively. RESULTS: Ten variables were selected to establish the nomogram for predicting MAFLD risk: sex, age, waist circumference (WC), uric acid (UA), body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), triglycerides (TG), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT). The nomogram built on the nonoverfitting multivariable model showed good prediction of discrimination (AUC 0.914, 95% CI: 0.911-0.917), calibration, and clinical utility. CONCLUSIONS: This nomogram can be used as a quick screening tool to assess MAFLD risk and identify individuals at high risk of MAFLD, thus contributing to the improved management of MAFLD.

Clustering of lifestyle behaviours and analysis of their associations with MAFLD: a cross-sectional study of 196,515 individuals in China.

BACKGROUND: The aggregation of lifestyle behaviours and their association with metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) remain unclear. We identified lifestyle patterns and investigated their association with the risk of developing MAFLD in a sample of Chinese adults who underwent annual physical examinations. METHODS: Annual physical examination data of Chinese adults from January 2016 to December 2020 were used in this study. We created a scoring system for lifestyle items combining a statistical method (multivariate analysis of variance) and clinical expertise (Delphi method). Subsequently, principal component analysis and two-step cluster analysis were implemented to derive the lifestyle patterns of men and women. Binary logistic regression analysis was used to explore the prevalence risk of MAFLD among lifestyle patterns stratified by sex. RESULTS: A total of 196,515 subjects were included in the analysis. Based on the defined lifestyle scoring system, nine and four lifestyle patterns were identified for men and women, respectively, which included "healthy or unhealthy" patterns and mixed patterns containing a combination of healthy and risky lifestyle behaviours. This study showed that subjects with an unhealthy or mixed pattern had a significantly higher risk of developing MAFLD than subjects with a relatively healthy pattern, especially among men. CONCLUSIONS: Clusters of unfavourable behaviours are more prominent in men than in women. Lifestyle patterns, as important factors influencing the development of MAFLD, show significant sex differences in the risk of MAFLD. There is a strong need for future research to develop targeted MAFLD interventions based on the identified behavioural clusters by sex stratification.