Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows.

We propose a method for forecasting global human migration flows. A Bayesian hierarchical model is used to make probabilistic projections of the 39,800 bilateral migration flows among the 200 most populous countries. We generate out-of-sample forecasts for all bilateral flows for the 2015 to 2020 period, using models fitted to bilateral migration flows for five 5-y periods from 1990 to 1995 through 2010 to 2015. We find that the model produces well-calibrated out-of-sample forecasts of bilateral flows, as well as total country-level inflows, outflows, and net flows. The mean absolute error decreased by 61% using our method, compared to a leading model of international migration. Out-of-sample analysis indicated that simple methods for forecasting migration flows offered accurate projections of bilateral migration flows in the near term. Our method matched or improved on the out-of-sample performance using these simple deterministic alternatives, while also accurately assessing uncertainty. We integrate the migration flow forecasting model into a fully probabilistic population projection model to generate bilateral migration flow forecasts by age and sex for all flows from 2020 to 2025 through 2040 to 2045.

The persistence of ancient settlements and urban sustainability.

We propose a dedicated research effort on the determinants of settlement persistence in the ancient world, with the potential to significantly advance the scientific understanding of urban sustainability today. Settlements (cities, towns, villages) are locations with two key attributes: They frame human interactions and activities in space, and they are where people dwell or live. Sustainability, in this case, focuses on the capacity of structures and functions of a settlement system (geography, demography, institutions) to provide for continuity of safe habitation. The 7,000-y-old experience of urbanism, as revealed by archaeology and history, includes many instances of settlements and settlement systems enduring, adapting to, or generating environmental, institutional, and technological changes. The field of urban sustainability lacks a firm scientific foundation for understanding the long durée, relying instead on narratives of collapse informed by limited case studies. We argue for the development of a new interdisciplinary research effort to establish scientific understanding of settlement and settlement system persistence. Such an effort would build upon the many fields that study human settlements to develop new theories and databases from the extensive documentation of ancient and premodern urban systems. A scientific foundation will generate novel insights to advance the field of urban sustainability.

The Migration of Lynch Victims' Families, 1880-1930.

We examine the relationship between the lynching of African Americans in the southern United States and subsequent county out-migration of the victims' surviving family members. Using U.S. census records and machine learning methods, we identify the place of residence for family members of Black individuals who were killed by lynch mobs between 1882 and 1929 in the U.S. South. Over the entire period, our analysis finds that lynch victims' family members experienced a 10-percentage-point increase in the probability of migrating to a different county by the next decennial census relative to their same-race neighbors. We also find that surviving family members had a 12-percentage-point increase in the probability of county out-migration compared with their neighbors when the household head was a lynch victim. The out-migration response of the families of lynch victims was most pronounced between 1910 and 1930, suggesting that lynch victims' family members may have been disproportionately represented in the first Great Migration.

Social, psychological, and demographic characteristics of dehumanization toward immigrants.

This study extends the current body of work on dehumanization by evaluating the social, psychological, and demographic correlates of blatant disregard for immigrants. Participants (n = 468) were randomly assigned to read a scenario where 1) an immigrant or 2) an immigrant and their child were caught illegally crossing the southern border of the United States, and then rated how long they should spend in jail if convicted. Participants reported that they would sentence the immigrant to more jail time than the immigrant and child. Those who sent immigrants to jail for more time also viewed them as socially distant and less human, described immigration in impersonal terms, and endorsed other social harms unrelated to immigration (e.g., the death penalty for convicted murderers). Crucially, endorsed social harms accounted for explained variance beyond simply holding conservative views. We position these data within the current literature on dehumanization theory and immigration issues.

Sanctuary policies reduce deportations without increasing crime.

The US government maintains that local sanctuary policies prevent deportations of violent criminals and increase crime. This report tests those claims by combining Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deportation data and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) crime data with data on the implementation dates of sanctuary policies between 2010 and 2015. Sanctuary policies reduced deportations of people who were fingerprinted by states or counties by about one-third. Those policies also changed the composition of deportations, reducing deportations of people with no criminal convictions by half-without affecting deportations of people with violent convictions. Sanctuary policies also had no detectable effect on crime rates. These findings suggest that sanctuary policies, although effective at reducing deportations, do not threaten public safety.

Indian medical graduates in New Zealand: does anyone win?

Medical migration has become a global phenomenon, partly led by easier air travel, economic factors and the expansion of medical technology. New Zealand has gradually evolved from being 'bicultural' to a multicultural, multitextured society. The movement of the Indian people, particularly Indian physicians, will be the focus of this paper. In the last three decades, migration eligibility in New Zealand has changed from countries of origin or ability to speak English, to profession and skills. Despite struggling with its own issues, New Zealand has proven to be a preferred destination for Indian medical graduates (IMGs). India is widely recognised as the largest 'donor country' for doctors, many of whom go on to establish themselves as leaders and prominent figures in their field. This migration involves three parties: India as a donor country, New Zealand as a recipient country and IMGs as the drivers of this process. Factors behind this growing phenomenon are examined and recommendations are made so that all three parties can benefit from it.

The origins of dengue and chikungunya viruses in Ecuador following increased migration from Venezuela and Colombia.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, Ecuador and other South American countries have experienced an increase in arboviral diseases. A rise in dengue infections was followed by introductions of chikungunya and Zika, two viruses never before seen in many of these areas. Furthermore, the latest socioeconomic and political instability in Venezuela and the mass migration of its population into the neighboring countries has given rise to concerns of infectious disease spillover and escalation of arboviral spread in the region. RESULTS: We performed phylogeographic analyses of dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) virus genomes sampled from a surveillance site in Ecuador in 2014-2015, along with genomes from the surrounding countries. Our results revealed at least two introductions of DENV, in 2011 and late 2013, that initially originated from Venezuela and/or Colombia. The introductions were subsequent to increases in the influx of Venezuelan and Colombian citizens into Ecuador, which in 2013 were 343% and 214% higher than in 2009, respectively. However, we show that Venezuela has historically been an important source of DENV dispersal in this region, even before the massive exodus of its population, suggesting already established paths of viral distribution. Like DENV, CHIKV was introduced into Ecuador at multiple time points in 2013-2014, but unlike DENV, these introductions were associated with the Caribbean. Our findings indicated no direct CHIKV connection between Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela as of 2015, suggesting that CHIKV was, at this point, not following the paths of DENV spread. CONCLUSION: Our results reveal that Ecuador is vulnerable to arbovirus import from many geographic locations, emphasizing the need of continued surveillance and more diversified prevention strategies. Importantly, increase in human movement along established paths of viral dissemination, combined with regional outbreaks and epidemics, may facilitate viral spread and lead to novel virus introductions. Thus, strengthening infectious disease surveillance and control along migration routes and improving access to healthcare for the vulnerable populations is of utmost importance.

Paediatric emergency department utilisation rates and maternal migration status in the Born in Bradford cohort: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Globally, international migration is increasing. Population growth, along with other demographic changes, may be expected to put new pressures on healthcare systems. Some studies across Europe suggest that emergency departments (EDs) are used more, and differently, by migrants compared to non-migrant populations, which may be a result of unfamiliarity with the healthcare systems and difficulties accessing primary healthcare. However, little evidence exists to understand how migrant parents, who are typically young and of childbearing age, utilise EDs for their children. This study aimed to examine the association between paediatric ED utilisation in the first 5 years of life and maternal migration status in the Born in Bradford (BiB) cohort study. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed linked data from the BiB study-an ongoing, multi-ethnic prospective birth cohort study in Bradford. Bradford is a large, ethnically diverse city in the north of England. In 2017, more than a third of births in Bradford were to mothers who were born outside the UK. Between March 2007 and December 2010, pregnant women were recruited to BiB during routine antenatal care, and the children born to these mothers have been, and continue to be, followed over time to assess how social, genetic, environmental, and behavioural factors impact on health from childhood to adulthood. Data analysed in this study included baseline questionnaire data from BiB mothers, and Bradford Royal Infirmary ED episode data for their children. Main outcomes were likelihood of paediatric ED use (no visits versus at least 1 ED visit in the first 5 years of life) and ED utilisation rates (number and frequency of ED visits) for children who have accessed the ED. The main explanatory variable was mother's migrant status (foreign-born versus UK/Irish-born). Multivariable analyses (logistic and zero-truncated negative binomial regression) were conducted adjusting for socio-demographic and socio-economic factors. The final dataset included 10,168 children born between April 2007 and June 2011, of whom 35.6% were born to migrant mothers. Foreign-born mothers originated from South Asia (28.6%), Europe/Central Asia (3.2%), Africa (2.1%), East Asia/Pacific (1.1%), and the Middle East (0.6%). At recruitment the mothers ranged in age from 15 to 49 years old. Overall, 3,104 (30.5%) children had at least 1 ED visit in the first 5 years of life, with the highest proportion of visits being in the first year of life (36.7%). The proportion of children who visited the ED at least once was lower for children of migrant mothers as compared to children of non-migrant mothers (29.4% versus 31.2%). Children of migrant mothers were found to be less likely to visit the ED (odds ratio 0.88 [95% CI 0.80 to 0.97], p = 0.012). However, among children who visited the ED, the utilisation rate was significantly higher for children of migrant mothers (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.19 [95% CI 1.01 to 1.40], p = 0.040). Utilisation rates were higher for children born to mothers from Europe (IRR 1.71 [95% CI 1.07 to 2.71], p = 0.024) and established migrants (≥5 years living in UK) (IRR 1.24 [95% CI 1.02 to 1.51], p = 0.032) compared to UK/Irish-born mothers. Important limitations include being unable to measure children's underlying health status and the urgency of ED attendance, as well as the analysis being limited by missing data. CONCLUSIONS: In this study we observed that there is no higher likelihood of first paediatric ED attendance in the first 5 years of life for children in the BiB cohort for migrant mothers. However, among ED users, children of migrant mothers attend the service more frequently than children of UK/Irish-born mothers. Our findings show that patterns of ED utilisation differ by mother's region of origin and time since arrival in the UK.

Gaps in the HIV diagnosis and care cascade for migrants in Australia, 2013-2017: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Globally, few studies compare progress toward the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Fast-Track targets among migrant populations. Fast-Track targets are aligned to the HIV diagnosis and care cascade and entail achieving 90-90-90 (90% of people living with HIV [PLHIV] diagnosed, 90% of those diagnosed on treatment, and 90% of those on treatment with viral suppression [VS]) by 2020 and 95-95-95 by 2030. We compared cascades between migrant and nonmigrant populations in Australia. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a serial cross-sectional survey for HIV diagnosis and care cascades using modelling estimates for proportions diagnosed combined with a clinical database for proportions on treatment and VS between 2013-2017. We estimated the number of PLHIV and number diagnosed using New South Wales (NSW) and Victorian (VIC) data from the Australian National HIV Registry. Cascades were stratified by migration status, sex, HIV exposure, and eligibility for subsidised healthcare in Australia (reciprocal healthcare agreement [RHCA]). We found that in 2017, 17,760 PLHIV were estimated in NSW and VIC, and 90% of them were males. In total, 90% of estimated PLHIV were diagnosed. Of the 9,391 who were diagnosed and retained in care, most (85%; n = 8,015) were males. We excluded 38% of PLHIV with missing data for country of birth, and 41% (n = 2,408) of eligible retained PLHIV were migrants. Most migrants were from Southeast Asia (SEA; 28%), northern Europe (12%), and eastern Asia (11%). Most of the migrants and nonmigrants were males (72% and 83%, respectively). We found that among those retained in care, 90% were on antiretroviral therapy (ART), and 95% of those on ART had VS (i.e., 90-90-95). Migrants had larger gaps in their HIV diagnosis and care cascade (85-85-93) compared with nonmigrants (94-90-96). Similarly, there were larger gaps among migrants reporting male-to-male HIV exposure (84-83-93) compared with nonmigrants reporting male-to-male HIV exposure (96-92-96). Large gaps were also found among migrants from SEA (72-87-93) and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA; 89-93-91). Migrants from countries ineligible for RHCA had lower cascade estimates (83-85-92) than RHCA-eligible migrants (96-86-95). Trends in the HIV diagnosis and care cascades improved over time (2013 and 2017). However, there was no significant increase in ART coverage among migrant females (incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.03; 95% CI 0.99-1.08; p = 0.154), nonmigrant females (IRR: 1.01; 95% CI 0.95-1.07; p = 0.71), and migrants from SEA (IRR: 1.03; 95% CI 0.99-1.07; p = 0.06) and SSA (IRR: 1.03; 95% CI 0.99-1.08; p = 0.11). Additionally, there was no significant increase in VS among migrants reporting male-to-male HIV exposure (IRR: 1.02; 95% CI 0.99-1.04; p = 0.08). The major limitation of our study was a high proportion of individuals missing data for country of birth, thereby limiting migrant status categorisation. Additionally, we used a cross-sectional instead of a longitudinal study design to develop the cascades and used the number retained as opposed to using all individuals diagnosed to calculate the proportions on ART. CONCLUSIONS: HIV diagnosis and care cascades improved overall between 2013 and 2017 in NSW and VIC. Cascades for migrants had larger gaps compared with nonmigrants, particularly among key migrant populations. Tracking subpopulation cascades enables gaps to be identified and addressed early to facilitate achievement of Fast-Track targets.

Does Information Change Attitudes Toward Immigrants?

Strategies aimed at reducing negative attitudes toward immigrants are at the core of integration policies. A large literature shows that misperceptions about the size and characteristics of immigrants are common. A few studies implemented interventions to correct innumeracy regarding the size of the immigrant population, but they did not detect any effects on attitudes. We study whether providing information not only about the size but also about the characteristics of the immigrant population can have stronger effects. We conduct two online experiments with samples from the United States, providing one-half of the participants with five statistics about immigration. This information bundle improves people's attitudes toward current legal immigrants. Most effects are driven by Republicans and other groups with more negative initial attitudes toward immigrants. In our second experiment, we show that treatment effects persist one month later. Finally, we analyze a large cross-country survey experiment to provide external validity to the finding that information about the size of the foreign-born population is not enough to change policy views. We conclude that people with negative views on immigration before the intervention can become more supportive of immigration if their misperceptions about the characteristics of the foreign-born population are corrected.

Growing Together-Effects of a school-based intervention promoting positive self-beliefs and social integration in recently immigrated children.

We present a school-based intervention geared to foster the social integration of recently immigrated (RI) primary school children by creating repeated positive contact situations with classmates brought up in the receiving society. Coaches encouraged groups of tandems, consisting of one RI and one child brought up in Germany each, to engage in cooperative activities designed to strengthen positive self-beliefs and perception of equal status. In a quasi-experimental control-group design (N = 318), we compared the 30 children (12 RI) who participated in our intervention between pre-test and post-test with a reference group. Self-beliefs were measured via self-reports, social integration via sociometric peer-nominations. The reference group (n = 288 children) included all children who did not participate in the intervention between pre-test and post-test: (a) 12 children (7 RI) of a waiting control group and (b) all classmates of both the students of the intervention and the waiting control group. Post-test self-beliefs were more positive in children having participated in the intervention. The intervention did not affect social integration: Neither the number of classmates nominating a student nor the number of peers the respective student nominated increased. Possibly, the intervention initiated self-reinforcing processes which support social integration over longer time periods.

The increasing incidence of immigration and information-seeking behaviour of medical doctors in north-western Greece.

INTRODUCTION: Brain drain, an increasing phenomenon, can be defined as the international transfer of resources, in the form of a highly educated workforce, from developing to more developed countries. The tendency for migration leads to the activation of informational behaviour. The aim of this study was to search for the main causes of emigration of Greek medical doctors while their country suffers from an economic crisis. METHODS: A cross-sectional study using a quantitative sampling method in the form of questionnaires was performed. These questionnaires were answered by 143 doctors working in the National Health System in the city of Ioannina in north-western Greece. Correlations between the examined parameters and predictive factors of immigration trend were recorded. RESULTS: A total of 85% of the respondents were dissatisfied with their wage, only 30% were sure that they would keep their current job and nearly 52% of them answered negatively to questions regarding their professional development. Only 33% of the physicians were negatively disposed towards moving abroad. Most of them were permanent personnel. Unsatisfactory wages, job uncertainty, non-permanent working status and low professional development opportunities were correlated with the phenomenon of immigration (all p<0.001). In the multivariate binary logistic regression analysis, lower wage (odds ratio (OR)=0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.453-0.961, p=0.03) and job uncertainty (OR=1.355, 95%CI=1.040-1.767, p=0.025) were independent predictors of the immigration trend. CONCLUSION: The tendency of Greek medical doctors to emigrate is strongly related to financial dissatisfaction, professional insecurity and minimal development opportunities. Especially in rural areas these high immigration trends can result in a shortage of GPs. The need for emigration is less common among qualified doctors with permanent contracts.

Nurse and health professional migration during COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerabilities of nursing supply flows, domestically and internationally. Its impact at the country-level has further highlighted preexisting nurse supply gaps and the effect of staffing shortages. Internationally, the pandemic has disrupted global supply chains. The world has witnessed the closing of borders, the interruption of travel, and, in some countries, the restriction of outflows. The State of the World's Nursing Report (SOWN) (WHO, 2020) noted a shortfall of almost six million nurses immediately pre-COVID-19, a shortage suffered particularly by low- and middle-income countries. This is of major concern given that increased international outflows of nurses in the new post-COVID era could undermine, even more than before, the readiness of those countries to meet healthcare demands (ICN, 2020). In this default scenario, some, but not all, highincome destination countries will continue to rely on international inflow of nurses to a significant extent, as they did pre-COVID- 19, further exacerbating the suffering of poor countries. Put simply, without country-level policy changes related to the nursing workforce and backed by international organisations, pre-COVID-19 trends of increased nurse flows from low- to high-income countries will likely continue. In this scenario, the iniquitous maldistribution of nurses may become more pronounced. This "do nothing" option risks undermining both country-level progress towards the attainment of Universal Health.

Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms and Perceived Stress From Pregnancy to the Postnatal Period Among Canadian Women: Impact of Employment and Immigration.

Objectives. To identify trajectory patterns of maternal depressive symptoms and perceived stress from midpregnancy to 2 years postpartum and determine relationships with selected sociodemographic factors including income, education, immigration, and postpartum employment. Methods. Pregnant women (n = 3307) recruited from the general population in 4 regions in Canada provided 6 waves of data from pregnancy to 2 years postpartum. The study was conducted from 2009 to 2015. Results. We determined 5 trajectory groups distinguished by time and magnitude for both depressive symptoms and perceived stress. Immigrants living in Canada for more than 5 up to 10 years, but not more recent arrivals, were at higher risk for persistent stress and depression independent of income status. Being employed at 1 year postpartum was associated with a lower likelihood of postpartum depression and perceived stress, while mothers reporting work exhaustion were substantially more likely to experience persistent depression and stress. Conclusions. The study highlighted the heterogeneous nature of depressive symptoms and perceived stress. Targeting interventions toward women 5 to 10 years after immigration and those experiencing exhaustion from postpartum work may be particularly beneficial.