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1.
Cell ; 183(5): 1340-1353.e16, 2020 11 25.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33096020

RESUMEN

The contribution of CD4+ T cells to protective or pathogenic immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection remains unknown. Here, we present single-cell transcriptomic analysis of >100,000 viral antigen-reactive CD4+ T cells from 40 COVID-19 patients. In hospitalized patients compared to non-hospitalized patients, we found increased proportions of cytotoxic follicular helper cells and cytotoxic T helper (TH) cells (CD4-CTLs) responding to SARS-CoV-2 and reduced proportion of SARS-CoV-2-reactive regulatory T cells (TREG). Importantly, in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, a strong cytotoxic TFH response was observed early in the illness, which correlated negatively with antibody levels to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Polyfunctional TH1 and TH17 cell subsets were underrepresented in the repertoire of SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells compared to influenza-reactive CD4+ T cells. Together, our analyses provide insights into the gene expression patterns of SARS-CoV-2-reactive CD4+ T cells in distinct disease severities.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/inmunología , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Células T Auxiliares Foliculares/inmunología , Linfocitos T Citotóxicos/inmunología , Linfocitos T Reguladores/inmunología , Transcriptoma , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Anticuerpos Antivirales/sangre , Anticuerpos Antivirales/inmunología , Recuento de Linfocito CD4 , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/virología , Estudios de Cohortes , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa de Transcriptasa Inversa , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Análisis de la Célula Individual/métodos , Glicoproteína de la Espiga del Coronavirus/inmunología
2.
Cell ; 167(6): 1436-1439, 2016 Dec 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27912050

RESUMEN

Francis' office window (at the Salk) commanded a panorama of the Pacific. "This grand natural scene was a physical correlate of Francis's intellectual world: wide-ranging, brilliantly lit, a little overawing, but also immensely inviting and above all an exciting place to be." (Mitchison, 2004).


Asunto(s)
ADN/química , Genética/historia , Biología Molecular/historia , Animales , Caenorhabditis elegans , Codón , Biología Evolutiva/historia , Inglaterra , Historia del Siglo XX , Investigación
3.
Nature ; 626(7997): 145-150, 2024 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38122820

RESUMEN

How likely is it to become infected by SARS-CoV-2 after being exposed? Almost everyone wondered about this question during the COVID-19 pandemic. Contact-tracing apps1,2 recorded measurements of proximity3 and duration between nearby smartphones. Contacts-individuals exposed to confirmed cases-were notified according to public health policies such as the 2 m, 15 min guideline4,5, despite limited evidence supporting this threshold. Here we analysed 7 million contacts notified by the National Health Service COVID-19 app6,7 in England and Wales to infer how app measurements translated to actual transmissions. Empirical metrics and statistical modelling showed a strong relation between app-computed risk scores and actual transmission probability. Longer exposures at greater distances had risk similar to that of shorter exposures at closer distances. The probability of transmission confirmed by a reported positive test increased initially linearly with duration of exposure (1.1% per hour) and continued increasing over several days. Whereas most exposures were short (median 0.7 h, interquartile range 0.4-1.6), transmissions typically resulted from exposures lasting between 1 h and several days (median 6 h, interquartile range 1.4-28). Households accounted for about 6% of contacts but 40% of transmissions. With sufficient preparation, privacy-preserving yet precise analyses of risk that would inform public health measures, based on digital contact tracing, could be performed within weeks of the emergence of a new pathogen.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Trazado de Contacto , Aplicaciones Móviles , Salud Pública , Medición de Riesgo , Humanos , Trazado de Contacto/métodos , Trazado de Contacto/estadística & datos numéricos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/transmisión , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Medicina Estatal , Factores de Tiempo , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Gales/epidemiología , Modelos Estadísticos , Composición Familiar , Salud Pública/métodos , Salud Pública/tendencias
4.
Annu Rev Biochem ; 83: 1-44, 2014.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24437663

RESUMEN

My scientific journeys began at Oxford nearly 50 years ago. My paths have taken me from magnetic resonance through enzyme systems to antibodies, which led directly to glycobiology. Oxford University's first industrial grant helped the development of the technology for isolating and sequencing oligosaccharides from glycoproteins. This technology was disseminated through a spin-off company, Oxford GlycoSystems, and by the establishment of the Glycobiology Institute. The technology gave rise to the concept of glycoforms, which allow diversification of a protein's properties. Iminosugars, which are glucosidase inhibitors, can interfere with the initial steps of glycan processing on proteins and inhibit three-dimensional folding of glycoproteins. Glucosidase targets for therapy include viral envelope glycoproteins. Clinical trials of an iminosugar as an antiviral for dengue virus are under way. Another iminosugar activity, inhibition of glycolipid synthesis, resulted in a drug for Gaucher disease, which was approved worldwide in 2002. The success of the company and the institute allowed me to undertake several initiatives, in the United Kingdom and abroad, that might help the paths of future generations of scientists.


Asunto(s)
Glicómica/historia , Alergia e Inmunología/historia , Animales , Antígenos , Investigación Biomédica/historia , Diseño de Fármacos , Inglaterra , Glucosidasas/química , Historia del Siglo XX , Historia del Siglo XXI , Humanos , Israel
5.
Cell ; 159(6): 1239-42, 2014 Dec 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25480286

RESUMEN

The 2014 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine, awarded to John O'Keefe, May-Britt Moser, and Edvard I. Moser, recognizes the first deep-brain insights into a cognitive function. Their insights established a new view for how the brain represents spatial location.


Asunto(s)
Hipocampo/fisiología , Neurociencias/historia , Premio Nobel , Fisiología/historia , Animales , Canadá , Inglaterra , Historia del Siglo XX , Humanos , Noruega , Navegación Espacial
6.
Nature ; 624(7990): 138-144, 2023 Dec.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37968391

RESUMEN

Diabetes is a leading cause of morbidity, mortality and cost of illness1,2. Health behaviours, particularly those related to nutrition and physical activity, play a key role in the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus3. Whereas behaviour change programmes (also known as lifestyle interventions or similar) have been found efficacious in controlled clinical trials4,5, there remains controversy about whether targeting health behaviours at the individual level is an effective preventive strategy for type 2 diabetes mellitus6 and doubt among clinicians that lifestyle advice and counselling provided in the routine health system can achieve improvements in health7-9. Here we show that being referred to the largest behaviour change programme for prediabetes globally (the English Diabetes Prevention Programme) is effective in improving key cardiovascular risk factors, including glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), excess body weight and serum lipid levels. We do so by using a regression discontinuity design10, which uses the eligibility threshold in HbA1c for referral to the behaviour change programme, in electronic health data from about one-fifth of all primary care practices in England. We confirm our main finding, the improvement of HbA1c, using two other quasi-experimental approaches: difference-in-differences analysis exploiting the phased roll-out of the programme and instrumental variable estimation exploiting regional variation in programme coverage. This analysis provides causal, rather than associational, evidence that lifestyle advice and counselling implemented at scale in a national health system can achieve important health improvements.


Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Conductas Relacionadas con la Salud , Promoción de la Salud , Programas Nacionales de Salud , Estado Prediabético , Humanos , Peso Corporal , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/sangre , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/prevención & control , Registros Electrónicos de Salud , Inglaterra , Ejercicio Físico , Hemoglobina Glucada/análisis , Promoción de la Salud/métodos , Promoción de la Salud/normas , Estilo de Vida , Lípidos/sangre , Programas Nacionales de Salud/normas , Estado Prediabético/sangre , Estado Prediabético/prevención & control , Atención Primaria de Salud
7.
Nature ; 623(7985): 132-138, 2023 Nov.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37853126

RESUMEN

Hospital-based transmission had a dominant role in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemics1,2, but large-scale studies of its role in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are lacking. Such transmission risks spreading the virus to the most vulnerable individuals and can have wider-scale impacts through hospital-community interactions. Using data from acute hospitals in England, we quantify within-hospital transmission, evaluate likely pathways of spread and factors associated with heightened transmission risk, and explore the wider dynamical consequences. We estimate that between June 2020 and March 2021 between 95,000 and 167,000 inpatients acquired SARS-CoV-2 in hospitals (1% to 2% of all hospital admissions in this period). Analysis of time series data provided evidence that patients who themselves acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospital were the main sources of transmission to other patients. Increased transmission to inpatients was associated with hospitals having fewer single rooms and lower heated volume per bed. Moreover, we show that reducing hospital transmission could substantially enhance the efficiency of punctuated lockdown measures in suppressing community transmission. These findings reveal the previously unrecognized scale of hospital transmission, have direct implications for targeting of hospital control measures and highlight the need to design hospitals better equipped to limit the transmission of future high-consequence pathogens.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Infección Hospitalaria , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa , Pacientes Internos , Pandemias , Humanos , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/transmisión , Infección Hospitalaria/epidemiología , Infección Hospitalaria/prevención & control , Infección Hospitalaria/transmisión , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Hospitales , Pandemias/prevención & control , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Cuarentena/estadística & datos numéricos , SARS-CoV-2
8.
Nature ; 610(7930): 112-119, 2022 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36131019

RESUMEN

The history of the British Isles and Ireland is characterized by multiple periods of major cultural change, including the influential transformation after the end of Roman rule, which precipitated shifts in language, settlement patterns and material culture1. The extent to which migration from continental Europe mediated these transitions is a matter of long-standing debate2-4. Here we study genome-wide ancient DNA from 460 medieval northwestern Europeans-including 278 individuals from England-alongside archaeological data, to infer contemporary population dynamics. We identify a substantial increase of continental northern European ancestry in early medieval England, which is closely related to the early medieval and present-day inhabitants of Germany and Denmark, implying large-scale substantial migration across the North Sea into Britain during the Early Middle Ages. As a result, the individuals who we analysed from eastern England derived up to 76% of their ancestry from the continental North Sea zone, albeit with substantial regional variation and heterogeneity within sites. We show that women with immigrant ancestry were more often furnished with grave goods than women with local ancestry, whereas men with weapons were as likely not to be of immigrant ancestry. A comparison with present-day Britain indicates that subsequent demographic events reduced the fraction of continental northern European ancestry while introducing further ancestry components into the English gene pool, including substantial southwestern European ancestry most closely related to that seen in Iron Age France5,6.


Asunto(s)
Pool de Genes , Migración Humana , Arqueología , ADN Antiguo/análisis , Dinamarca , Inglaterra , Femenino , Francia , Genética de Población , Genoma Humano/genética , Alemania , Historia Medieval , Migración Humana/historia , Humanos , Lenguaje , Masculino , Dinámica Poblacional , Armas/historia
9.
Nature ; 610(7930): 154-160, 2022 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35952712

RESUMEN

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (Pango lineage B.1.617.2) variant of concern spread globally, causing resurgences of COVID-19 worldwide1,2. The emergence of the Delta variant in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from England together with 93,649 genomes from the rest of the world to reconstruct the emergence of Delta and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Using analysis of human movement, contact tracing and virus genomic data, we find that the geographic focus of the expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced more than 1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers reduced onward transmission from importations; however, the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England were seeded before travel restrictions were introduced. Increasing inter-regional travel within England drove the nationwide dissemination of Delta, with some cities receiving more than 2,000 observable lineage introductions from elsewhere. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing-and not the number of importations-were associated with the faster relative spread of Delta. The invasion dynamics of Delta depended on spatial heterogeneity in contact patterns, and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce the transmission of current and future variants of concern, such as Omicron (Pango lineage B.1.1.529).


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , COVID-19/transmisión , COVID-19/virología , Ciudades/epidemiología , Trazado de Contacto , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Genoma Viral/genética , Humanos , Cuarentena/legislación & jurisprudencia , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/crecimiento & desarrollo , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , Viaje/legislación & jurisprudencia
10.
N Engl J Med ; 390(9): 806-818, 2024 Feb 29.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38416429

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Cognitive symptoms after coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), are well-recognized. Whether objectively measurable cognitive deficits exist and how long they persist are unclear. METHODS: We invited 800,000 adults in a study in England to complete an online assessment of cognitive function. We estimated a global cognitive score across eight tasks. We hypothesized that participants with persistent symptoms (lasting ≥12 weeks) after infection onset would have objectively measurable global cognitive deficits and that impairments in executive functioning and memory would be observed in such participants, especially in those who reported recent poor memory or difficulty thinking or concentrating ("brain fog"). RESULTS: Of the 141,583 participants who started the online cognitive assessment, 112,964 completed it. In a multiple regression analysis, participants who had recovered from Covid-19 in whom symptoms had resolved in less than 4 weeks or at least 12 weeks had similar small deficits in global cognition as compared with those in the no-Covid-19 group, who had not been infected with SARS-CoV-2 or had unconfirmed infection (-0.23 SD [95% confidence interval {CI}, -0.33 to -0.13] and -0.24 SD [95% CI, -0.36 to -0.12], respectively); larger deficits as compared with the no-Covid-19 group were seen in participants with unresolved persistent symptoms (-0.42 SD; 95% CI, -0.53 to -0.31). Larger deficits were seen in participants who had SARS-CoV-2 infection during periods in which the original virus or the B.1.1.7 variant was predominant than in those infected with later variants (e.g., -0.17 SD for the B.1.1.7 variant vs. the B.1.1.529 variant; 95% CI, -0.20 to -0.13) and in participants who had been hospitalized than in those who had not been hospitalized (e.g., intensive care unit admission, -0.35 SD; 95% CI, -0.49 to -0.20). Results of the analyses were similar to those of propensity-score-matching analyses. In a comparison of the group that had unresolved persistent symptoms with the no-Covid-19 group, memory, reasoning, and executive function tasks were associated with the largest deficits (-0.33 to -0.20 SD); these tasks correlated weakly with recent symptoms, including poor memory and brain fog. No adverse events were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Participants with resolved persistent symptoms after Covid-19 had objectively measured cognitive function similar to that in participants with shorter-duration symptoms, although short-duration Covid-19 was still associated with small cognitive deficits after recovery. Longer-term persistence of cognitive deficits and any clinical implications remain uncertain. (Funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research and others.).


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Disfunción Cognitiva , Trastornos de la Memoria , Adulto , Humanos , Cognición , Disfunción Cognitiva/etiología , COVID-19/complicaciones , Trastornos de la Memoria/etiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Memoria , Inglaterra , Síndrome Post Agudo de COVID-19/etiología
11.
Nature ; 600(7889): 506-511, 2021 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34649268

RESUMEN

The evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus leads to new variants that warrant timely epidemiological characterization. Here we use the dense genomic surveillance data generated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium to reconstruct the dynamics of 71 different lineages in each of 315 English local authorities between September 2020 and June 2021. This analysis reveals a series of subepidemics that peaked in early autumn 2020, followed by a jump in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7/Alpha lineage. The Alpha variant grew when other lineages declined during the second national lockdown and regionally tiered restrictions between November and December 2020. A third more stringent national lockdown suppressed the Alpha variant and eliminated nearly all other lineages in early 2021. Yet a series of variants (most of which contained the spike E484K mutation) defied these trends and persisted at moderately increasing proportions. However, by accounting for sustained introductions, we found that the transmissibility of these variants is unlikely to have exceeded the transmissibility of the Alpha variant. Finally, B.1.617.2/Delta was repeatedly introduced in England and grew rapidly in early summer 2021, constituting approximately 98% of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes on 26 June 2021.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/virología , Genoma Viral/genética , Genómica , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Sustitución de Aminoácidos , COVID-19/transmisión , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Monitoreo Epidemiológico , Humanos , Epidemiología Molecular , Mutación , Cuarentena/estadística & datos numéricos , SARS-CoV-2/clasificación , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Glicoproteína de la Espiga del Coronavirus/genética
12.
Nature ; 593(7858): 270-274, 2021 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33723411

RESUMEN

SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, a variant that was first detected in the UK in September 20201, has spread to multiple countries worldwide. Several studies have established that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible than pre-existing variants, but have not identified whether it leads to any change in disease severity2. Here we analyse a dataset that links 2,245,263 positive SARS-CoV-2 community tests and 17,452 deaths associated with COVID-19 in England from 1 November 2020 to 14 February 2021. For 1,146,534 (51%) of these tests, the presence or absence of B.1.1.7 can be identified because mutations in this lineage prevent PCR amplification of the spike (S) gene target (known as S gene target failure (SGTF)1). On the basis of 4,945 deaths with known SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with SGTF is 55% (95% confidence interval, 39-72%) higher than in cases without SGTF after adjustment for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, residence in a care home, the local authority of residence and test date. This corresponds to the absolute risk of death for a 55-69-year-old man increasing from 0.6% to 0.9% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-1.0%) within 28 days of a positive test in the community. Correcting for misclassification of SGTF and missingness in SGTF status, we estimate that the hazard of death associated with B.1.1.7 is 61% (42-82%) higher than with pre-existing variants. Our analysis suggests that B.1.1.7 is not only more transmissible than pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 variants, but may also cause more severe illness.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/mortalidad , COVID-19/virología , Filogenia , SARS-CoV-2/clasificación , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidad , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Niño , Preescolar , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Etnicidad , Evolución Molecular , Femenino , Hogares para Ancianos , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Medición de Riesgo , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , Análisis de Supervivencia , Factores de Tiempo , Adulto Joven
13.
Nature ; 594(7863): 408-412, 2021 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33979832

RESUMEN

The COVID-19 pandemic has seen the emergence of digital contact tracing to help to prevent the spread of the disease. A mobile phone app records proximity events between app users, and when a user tests positive for COVID-19, their recent contacts can be notified instantly. Theoretical evidence has supported this new public health intervention1-6, but its epidemiological impact has remained uncertain7. Here we investigate the impact of the National Health Service (NHS) COVID-19 app for England and Wales, from its launch on 24 September 2020 to the end of December 2020. It was used regularly by approximately 16.5 million users (28% of the total population), and sent approximately 1.7 million exposure notifications: 4.2 per index case consenting to contact tracing. We estimated that the fraction of individuals notified by the app who subsequently showed symptoms and tested positive (the secondary attack rate (SAR)) was 6%, similar to the SAR for manually traced close contacts. We estimated the number of cases averted by the app using two complementary approaches: modelling based on the notifications and SAR gave an estimate of 284,000 (central 95% range of sensitivity analyses 108,000-450,000), and statistical comparison of matched neighbouring local authorities gave an estimate of 594,000 (95% confidence interval 317,000-914,000). Approximately one case was averted for each case consenting to notification of their contacts. We estimated that for every percentage point increase in app uptake, the number of cases could be reduced by 0.8% (using modelling) or 2.3% (using statistical analysis). These findings support the continued development and deployment of such apps in populations that are awaiting full protection from vaccines.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Trazado de Contacto/instrumentación , Trazado de Contacto/métodos , Aplicaciones Móviles/estadística & datos numéricos , Número Básico de Reproducción , COVID-19/mortalidad , COVID-19/transmisión , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Humanos , Mortalidad , Programas Nacionales de Salud , Cuarentena , Gales/epidemiología
14.
Nature ; 593(7858): 266-269, 2021 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33767447

RESUMEN

The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 by Public Health England1, was first identified in the UK in late summer to early autumn 20202. Whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing for COVID-19 show an extremely rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during autumn 2020, suggesting that it has a selective advantage. Here we show that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that B.1.1.7 has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if it has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with cases of B.1.1.7 including a larger share of under 20-year-olds than non-VOC cases. We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers for B.1.1.7 and co-circulating lineages using SGTF and genomic data. The best-supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups, but all analyses agreed that B.1.1.7 has a substantial transmission advantage over other lineages, with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/transmisión , COVID-19/virología , Filogenia , SARS-CoV-2/clasificación , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidad , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribución por Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Número Básico de Reproducción , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , Niño , Preescolar , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Evolución Molecular , Genoma Viral/genética , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Persona de Mediana Edad , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , Glicoproteína de la Espiga del Coronavirus/análisis , Glicoproteína de la Espiga del Coronavirus/genética , Factores de Tiempo , Adulto Joven
15.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(27): e2406734121, 2024 Jul 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38913897

RESUMEN

The Merovingian period (5th to 8th cc AD) was a time of demographic, socioeconomic, cultural, and political realignment in Western Europe. Here, we report the whole-genome shotgun sequence data of 30 human skeletal remains from a coastal Late Merovingian site of Koksijde (675 to 750 AD), alongside 18 remains from two Early to Late Medieval sites in present-day Flanders, Belgium. We find two distinct ancestries, one shared with Early Medieval England and the Netherlands, while the other, minor component, reflecting likely continental Gaulish ancestry. Kinship analyses identified no large pedigrees characteristic to elite burials revealing instead a high modularity of distant relationships among individuals of the main ancestry group. In contrast, individuals with >90% Gaulish ancestry had no kinship links among sampled individuals. Evidence for population structure and major differences in the extent of Gaulish ancestry in the main group, including in a mother-daughter pair, suggests ongoing admixture in the community at the time of their burial. The isotopic and genetic evidence combined supports a model by which the burials, representing an established coastal nonelite community, had incorporated migrants from inland populations. The main group of burials at Koksijde shows an abundance of >5 cM long shared allelic intervals with the High Medieval site nearby, implying long-term continuity and suggesting that similarly to Britain, the Early Medieval ancestry shifts left a significant and long-lasting impact on the genetic makeup of the Flemish population. We find substantial allele frequency differences between the two ancestry groups in pigmentation and diet-associated variants, including those linked with lactase persistence, likely reflecting ancestry change rather than local adaptation.


Asunto(s)
Linaje , Humanos , Historia Medieval , Bélgica , Entierro/historia , Genética de Población/métodos , Femenino , Masculino , ADN Antiguo/análisis , Inglaterra , Migración Humana , Arqueología , Países Bajos , Genoma Humano
16.
PLoS Pathog ; 20(4): e1012090, 2024 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38620033

RESUMEN

Genetic drift in infectious disease transmission results from randomness of transmission and host recovery or death. The strength of genetic drift for SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to be high due to high levels of superspreading, and this is expected to substantially impact disease epidemiology and evolution. However, we don't yet have an understanding of how genetic drift changes over time or across locations. Furthermore, noise that results from data collection can potentially confound estimates of genetic drift. To address this challenge, we develop and validate a method to jointly infer genetic drift and measurement noise from time-series lineage frequency data. Our method is highly scalable to increasingly large genomic datasets, which overcomes a limitation in commonly used phylogenetic methods. We apply this method to over 490,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences from England collected between March 2020 and December 2021 by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium and separately infer the strength of genetic drift for pre-B.1.177, B.1.177, Alpha, and Delta. We find that even after correcting for measurement noise, the strength of genetic drift is consistently, throughout time, higher than that expected from the observed number of COVID-19 positive individuals in England by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude, which cannot be explained by literature values of superspreading. Our estimates of genetic drift suggest low and time-varying establishment probabilities for new mutations, inform the parametrization of SARS-CoV-2 evolutionary models, and motivate future studies of the potential mechanisms for increased stochasticity in this system.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Flujo Genético , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/transmisión , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/virología , COVID-19/genética , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Filogenia , Genoma Viral
17.
PLoS Biol ; 21(5): e3002118, 2023 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37228015

RESUMEN

The relationship between prevalence of infection and severe outcomes such as hospitalisation and death changed over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reliable estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR) and infection hospitalisation ratio (IHR) along with the time-delay between infection and hospitalisation/death can inform forecasts of the numbers/timing of severe outcomes and allow healthcare services to better prepare for periods of increased demand. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study estimated swab positivity for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in England approximately monthly from May 2020 to March 2022. Here, we analyse the changing relationship between prevalence of swab positivity and the IFR and IHR over this period in England, using publicly available data for the daily number of deaths and hospitalisations, REACT-1 swab positivity data, time-delay models, and Bayesian P-spline models. We analyse data for all age groups together, as well as in 2 subgroups: those aged 65 and over and those aged 64 and under. Additionally, we analysed the relationship between swab positivity and daily case numbers to estimate the case ascertainment rate of England's mass testing programme. During 2020, we estimated the IFR to be 0.67% and the IHR to be 2.6%. By late 2021/early 2022, the IFR and IHR had both decreased to 0.097% and 0.76%, respectively. The average case ascertainment rate over the entire duration of the study was estimated to be 36.1%, but there was some significant variation in continuous estimates of the case ascertainment rate. Continuous estimates of the IFR and IHR of the virus were observed to increase during the periods of Alpha and Delta's emergence. During periods of vaccination rollout, and the emergence of the Omicron variant, the IFR and IHR decreased. During 2020, we estimated a time-lag of 19 days between hospitalisation and swab positivity, and 26 days between deaths and swab positivity. By late 2021/early 2022, these time-lags had decreased to 7 days for hospitalisations and 18 days for deaths. Even though many populations have high levels of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 from vaccination and natural infection, waning of immunity and variant emergence will continue to be an upwards pressure on the IHR and IFR. As investments in community surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 infection are scaled back, alternative methods are required to accurately track the ever-changing relationship between infection, hospitalisation, and death and hence provide vital information for healthcare provision and utilisation.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Teorema de Bayes , Pandemias , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Hospitalización
18.
Nature ; 585(7825): 390-396, 2020 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32939067

RESUMEN

The maritime expansion of Scandinavian populations during the Viking Age (about AD 750-1050) was a far-flung transformation in world history1,2. Here we sequenced the genomes of 442 humans from archaeological sites across Europe and Greenland (to a median depth of about 1×) to understand the global influence of this expansion. We find the Viking period involved gene flow into Scandinavia from the south and east. We observe genetic structure within Scandinavia, with diversity hotspots in the south and restricted gene flow within Scandinavia. We find evidence for a major influx of Danish ancestry into England; a Swedish influx into the Baltic; and Norwegian influx into Ireland, Iceland and Greenland. Additionally, we see substantial ancestry from elsewhere in Europe entering Scandinavia during the Viking Age. Our ancient DNA analysis also revealed that a Viking expedition included close family members. By comparing with modern populations, we find that pigmentation-associated loci have undergone strong population differentiation during the past millennium, and trace positively selected loci-including the lactase-persistence allele of LCT and alleles of ANKA that are associated with the immune response-in detail. We conclude that the Viking diaspora was characterized by substantial transregional engagement: distinct populations influenced the genomic makeup of different regions of Europe, and Scandinavia experienced increased contact with the rest of the continent.


Asunto(s)
Flujo Génico/genética , Genética de Población , Genoma Humano/genética , Genómica , Migración Humana/historia , Alelos , Conjuntos de Datos como Asunto , Inglaterra , Evolución Molecular , Groenlandia , Historia Medieval , Humanos , Inmunidad/genética , Irlanda , Lactasa/genética , Lactasa/metabolismo , Masculino , Países Escandinavos y Nórdicos , Selección Genética , Análisis Espacio-Temporal , Adulto Joven
19.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(27): e2300926120, 2023 07 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37364122

RESUMEN

A lineage of 422,374 English people (1600 to 2022) contains correlations in social outcomes among relatives as distant as 4th cousins. These correlations show striking patterns. The first is the strong persistence of social status across family trees. Correlations decline by a factor of only 0.79 across each generation. Even fourth cousins, with a common ancestor only five generations earlier, show significant status correlations. The second remarkable feature is that the decline in correlation with genetic distance in the lineage is unchanged from 1600 to 2022. Vast social changes in England between 1600 and 2022 would have been expected to increase social mobility. Yet people in 2022 remain correlated in outcomes with their lineage relatives in exactly the same way as in preindustrial England. The third surprising feature is that the correlations parallel those of a simple model of additive genetic determination of status, with a genetic correlation in marriage of 0.57.


Asunto(s)
Movilidad Social , Estatus Social , Humanos , Patrón de Herencia , Familia , Inglaterra
20.
Lancet ; 403(10444): 2619-2629, 2024 Jun 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38879261

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: People with multiple and persistent physical symptoms have impaired quality of life and poor experiences of health care. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a community-based symptom-clinic intervention in people with multiple and persistent physical symptoms, hypothesising that this symptoms clinic plus usual care would be superior to usual care only. METHODS: The Multiple Symptoms Study 3 was a pragmatic, multicentre, parallel-group, individually randomised controlled trial conducted in 108 general practices in the UK National Health Service in four regions of England between Dec 6, 2018, and June 30, 2023. Participants were individually randomised (1:1) to the symptom-clinic intervention plus usual care or to usual care only via a computer-generated, pseudo-random list stratified by trial centre. Allocation was done by the trial statistician and concealed with a centralised, web-based randomisation system; masking participants was not possible due to the nature of the intervention. The symptom-clinic intervention was a sequence of up to four medical consultations that aimed to elicit a detailed clinical history, fully hear and validate the participant, offer rational explanations for symptoms, and assist the participant to develop ways of managing their symptoms; it was delivered by general practitioners with an extended role. The primary outcome was Patient Health Questionnaire-15 (PHQ-15) score 52 weeks after randomisation, analysed by intention to treat. The trial is registered on the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN57050216). FINDINGS: 354 participants were randomly assigned; 178 (50%) were assigned to receive the community-based symptoms clinic plus usual care and 176 (50%) were assigned to receive usual care only. At the primary-outcome point of 52 weeks, PHQ-15 scores were 14·1 (SD 3·7) in the group receiving usual care and 12·2 (4·5) in the group receiving the intervention. The adjusted between-group difference of -1·82 (95% CI -2·67 to -0·97) was statistically significantly in favour of the intervention group (p<0·0001). There were 39 adverse events in the group receiving usual care and 36 adverse events in the group receiving the intervention. There were no statistically significant between-group differences in the proportion of participants who had non-serious adverse events (-0·03, 95% CI -0·11 to 0·05) or serious adverse events (0·02, -0·02 to 0·07). No serious adverse event was deemed to be related to the trial intervention. INTERPRETATION: Our symptom-clinic intervention, which focused on explaining persistent symptoms to participants in order to support self-management, led to sustained improvement in multiple and persistent physical symptoms. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.


Asunto(s)
Calidad de Vida , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Inglaterra , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto , Anciano , Médicos Generales , Medicina General
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