The effects of cash transfers on adult and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries.

Poverty is an important social determinant of health that is associated with increased risk of death1-5. Cash transfer programmes provide non-contributory monetary transfers to individuals or households, with or without behavioural conditions such as children's school attendance6,7. Over recent decades, cash transfer programmes have emerged as central components of poverty reduction strategies of many governments in low- and middle-income countries6,7. The effects of these programmes on adult and child mortality rates remains an important gap in the literature, however, with existing evidence limited to a few specific conditional cash transfer programmes, primarily in Latin America8-14. Here we evaluated the effects of large-scale, government-led cash transfer programmes on all-cause adult and child mortality using individual-level longitudinal mortality datasets from many low- and middle-income countries. We found that cash transfer programmes were associated with significant reductions in mortality among children under five years of age and women. Secondary heterogeneity analyses suggested similar effects for conditional and unconditional programmes, and larger effects for programmes that covered a larger share of the population and provided larger transfer amounts, and in countries with lower health expenditures, lower baseline life expectancy, and higher perceived regulatory quality. Our findings support the use of anti-poverty programmes such as cash transfers, which many countries have introduced or expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic, to improve population health.

Population flow drives spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 in China.

Sudden, large-scale and diffuse human migration can amplify localized outbreaks of disease into widespread epidemics1-4. Rapid and accurate tracking of aggregate population flows may therefore be epidemiologically informative. Here we use 11,478,484 counts of mobile phone data from individuals leaving or transiting through the prefecture of Wuhan between 1 January and 24 January 2020 as they moved to 296 prefectures throughout mainland China. First, we document the efficacy of quarantine in ceasing movement. Second, we show that the distribution of population outflow from Wuhan accurately predicts the relative frequency and geographical distribution of infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) until 19 February 2020, across mainland China. Third, we develop a spatio-temporal 'risk source' model that leverages population flow data (which operationalize the risk that emanates from epidemic epicentres) not only to forecast the distribution of confirmed cases, but also to identify regions that have a high risk of transmission at an early stage. Fourth, we use this risk source model to statistically derive the geographical spread of COVID-19 and the growth pattern based on the population outflow from Wuhan; the model yields a benchmark trend and an index for assessing the risk of community transmission of COVID-19 over time for different locations. This approach can be used by policy-makers in any nation with available data to make rapid and accurate risk assessments and to plan the allocation of limited resources ahead of ongoing outbreaks.

Mapping HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2017.

HIV/AIDS is a leading cause of disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Existing evidence has demonstrated that there is substantial local variation in the prevalence of HIV; however, subnational variation has not been investigated at a high spatial resolution across the continent. Here we explore within-country variation at a 5 × 5-km resolution in sub-Saharan Africa by estimating the prevalence of HIV among adults (aged 15-49 years) and the corresponding number of people living with HIV from 2000 to 2017. Our analysis reveals substantial within-country variation in the prevalence of HIV throughout sub-Saharan Africa and local differences in both the direction and rate of change in HIV prevalence between 2000 and 2017, highlighting the degree to which important local differences are masked when examining trends at the country level. These fine-scale estimates of HIV prevalence across space and time provide an important tool for precisely targeting the interventions that are necessary to bringing HIV infections under control in sub-Saharan Africa.

Mapping child growth failure in Africa between 2000 and 2015.

Insufficient growth during childhood is associated with poor health outcomes and an increased risk of death. Between 2000 and 2015, nearly all African countries demonstrated improvements for children under 5 years old for stunting, wasting, and underweight, the core components of child growth failure. Here we show that striking subnational heterogeneity in levels and trends of child growth remains. If current rates of progress are sustained, many areas of Africa will meet the World Health Organization Global Targets 2025 to improve maternal, infant and young child nutrition, but high levels of growth failure will persist across the Sahel. At these rates, much, if not all of the continent will fail to meet the Sustainable Development Goal target-to end malnutrition by 2030. Geospatial estimates of child growth failure provide a baseline for measuring progress as well as a precision public health platform to target interventions to those populations with the greatest need, in order to reduce health disparities and accelerate progress.

Carceral-community epidemiology, structural racism, and COVID-19 disparities.

Black and Hispanic communities are disproportionately affected by both incarceration and COVID-19. The epidemiological relationship between carceral facilities and community health during the COVID-19 pandemic, however, remains largely unexamined. Using data from Cook County Jail, we examine temporal patterns in the relationship between jail cycling (i.e., arrest and processing of individuals through jails before release) and community cases of COVID-19 in Chicago ZIP codes. We use multivariate regression analyses and a machine-learning tool, elastic regression, with 1,706 demographic control variables. We find that for each arrested individual cycled through Cook County Jail in March 2020, five additional cases of COVID-19 in their ZIP code of residence are independently attributable to the jail as of August. A total 86% of this additional disease burden is borne by majority-Black and/or -Hispanic ZIPs, accounting for 17% of cumulative COVID-19 cases in these ZIPs, 6% in majority-White ZIPs, and 13% across all ZIPs. Jail cycling in March alone can independently account for 21% of racial COVID-19 disparities in Chicago as of August 2020. Relative to all demographic variables in our analysis, jail cycling is the strongest predictor of COVID-19 rates, considerably exceeding poverty, race, and population density, for example. Arrest and incarceration policies appear to be increasing COVID-19 incidence in communities. Our data suggest that jails function as infectious disease multipliers and epidemiological pumps that are especially affecting marginalized communities. Given disproportionate policing and incarceration of racialized residents nationally, the criminal punishment system may explain a large proportion of racial COVID-19 disparities noted across the United States.

Cluster Analysis Methods to Support Population Health Improvement Among US Counties.

CONTEXT: Population health rankings can be a catalyst for the improvement of health by drawing attention to areas in need of relative improvement and summarizing complex information in a manner understood by almost everyone. However, ranks also have unintended consequences, such as being interpreted as "hard truths," where variations may not be significant. There is a need to improve communication about uncertainty in ranks, with accurate interpretation. The most common solutions discussed in the literature have included modeling approaches to minimize statistical noise or borrow strength from covariates. However, the use of complex models can limit communication and implementation, especially for broad audiences. OBJECTIVES: Explore data-informed grouping (cluster analysis) as an easier-to-understand, empirical technique to account for rank imprecision that can be effectively communicated both numerically and visually. DESIGN: Cluster analysis, specifically k-means clustering with Wasserstein (earth mover's) distance, was explored as an approach to identify natural and meaningful groupings and gaps in the data distribution for the County Health Rankings' (CHR) health outcomes ranks. SETTING: County-level health outcomes from the 2022 CHR. PARTICIPANTS: 3082 counties that were ranked in the 2022 CHR. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Data-informed health groups. RESULTS: Cluster analysis identified 30 health groupings among counties nationwide, with cluster size ranging from 9 to 184 counties. On average, states had 16 identified clusters, ranging from 3 in Delaware and Hawaii to 27 in Virginia. Number of clusters per state was associated with number of counties per state and population of the state. The method helped address many of the issues that arise from providing rank estimates alone. CONCLUSIONS: Public health practitioners can use this information to understand uncertainty in ranks, visualize distances between county ranks, have context around which counties are not meaningfully different from one another, and compare county performance to peer counties.

Local Public Health Strategies for Addressing Social Determinants of Health-Analysis of Recent Community Health Improvement Plans.

CONTEXT: The Public Health 3.0 (PH3.0) framework encourages local health departments (LHDs) to address the social determinants of health (SDOHs) that impact health equity. OBJECTIVE: This study sought to understand how often LHDs are working to address SDOH, which SDOHs are most often being addressed, as well as the mix of strategies that have been proposed to address this work. DESIGN: We reviewed recent Community Health Improvement Plans (CHIPs) to analyze the current involvement of LHDs in addressing SDOH. SETTING: CHIPs published from 2020. PARTICIPANTS: Accredited LHDs from across the United States (n = 80). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We developed a qualitative guidebook to characterize CHIP strategies based on the SDOH domain they addressed and the strategic mechanism they proposed. RESULTS: Across our entire sample, CHIPs were roughly 1.5 times more likely to address Health Care Access than Food Insecurity and Access to Healthy Food (65%), Neighborhood Infrastructure (61%), or Affordable Housing (65%), and they were 3 to 4 times more likely to address Health Care Access than Safe Housing (23%), Education Access and Quality (31%), or Economic Stability (24%). Across all major domains, a few concerned policy changes and a handful focused on improving systems or developing the built environment. Most strategies focused on service provision through events or the education of the public and professionals on health-related topics. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate that not all SDOHs are addressed equally by LHDs within their CHIPs. There is significant variation in how SDOHs are addressed along at 2 dimensions: first, in the likelihood that a CHIP addresses the domain and, second, in the mechanism by which each domain is addressed. Practically, the list of strategies we documented from the 80 CHIPs included in our sample may serve as the basis for strategies that other communities may wish to consider when addressing SDOH.

Public Health Involvement in United States' Vision Zero Initiatives: A Mixed-Methods Study.

CONTEXT: Vision Zero (VZ) aims to reduce fatalities and serious injuries from road traffic crashes to zero through multidisciplinary coordination. While public health officials are often recognized as critical to VZ, their involvement in VZ across the United States has not been quantified. OBJECTIVE: To explore how United States public health officials were involved in VZ development and implementation. DESIGN: We used a mixed-method design including a quantitative assessment of VZ plans and in-depth interviewing with VZ coordinators. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-two in-depth interviews with municipal (n = 12) and regional (n = 10) VZ coordinators and 43 VZ plans were reviewed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Public health involvement in VZ development and implementation. RESULTS: In the United States, 64 municipalities and 21 regional entities had first-time VZ plans published between 2014 and 2022. We abstracted a sample of municipal (n = 22) and all (n = 21) regional plans. Most plans described key groups involved in plan development (municipal 81.8%, regional 100%). About two-thirds (67.4%; 59.1% municipal, 76.2% regional) of the plans noted public health officials in the plan development. Most plans described the principles forming the foundation of their plan (83.7%), but few mentioned public health as part of the plan principles (22.7% municipal, 14.3% regional). Public health officials were involved in engaging the community (9.1% municipal, 33.3% regional) and providing data (22.7% municipal, 52.4% regional) for plan development, as documented in the plans. For proposed implementation, public health officials were identified as involved in: community engagement (31.8% municipal, 42.9% regional), sharing/analyzing data (40.9% municipal, 33.3% regional), and identifying/providing funding sources (13.6% municipal, 4.8% regional). The in-depth interviews provided further context and a more detailed understanding of public health involvement in VZ. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence from the VZ plans and interviews provided examples of how public health officials engaged in the development and implementation of VZ initiatives.

Strategic Workforce Analysis: Identifying Skills and Gaps Among Frontline Public Health Workers Amidst Transformation.

OBJECTIVE: Recent shifts in public health (PH) include consistent budget cuts, workforce attrition, and loss of vital skills and institutional knowledge followed by heightened pandemic-driven attention, new responsibilities, and renewed funding. This study investigates whether frontline employees working in different types of public health departments have different educational characteristics and whether these characteristics are associated with differentials in skill gaps toward informing targeted interventions to nurture a competitive workforce. METHODS: Utilizing 2021 Public Health Workforce Interests and Needs Survey (PH WINS) data, we document variations in educational qualifications, skill gaps, and workforce characteristics among frontline workers in different sizes of health departments and examine attributes associated with skill gaps: level and field of education, years of experience, program areas, and job classifications using a negative binomial model. RESULTS: Skill gaps in resource management, systems and strategic thinking, and change management persist across all local health departments (LHDs), but the extent of these gaps is greater in small LHDs. Small LHDs also have few employees with graduate and public health degrees. Additionally, whereas public health degrees were not associated with fewer skill gaps, tenure in public health was, suggesting people learn on the job. CONCLUSION: The results highlight the role regional training centers can play in emphasizing the need for strategic skills and foundational public health concepts, as well as customizing training content by agency size and educational levels to improve accessibility, particularly for small LHDs with resource constraints.

Outcome Evaluation of a Public Health Intervention on Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Prevention Among Women Aged 40-64 with Low Incomes in Nebraska.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness of the program interventions on cardiovascular disease in Nebraska women who are low income and have no health insurance. DESIGN: This evaluation used pre- and post-comparison approach. Paired t test and McNemar's test were used to examine the changes after the program interventions. PARTICIPANTS: Nebraska women aged 40 to 64 years, without health insurance, and with household incomes up to 225% Federal Poverty Level. SETTING AND INTERVENTION: A network of community-clinical linkages in which medical providers provided preventive screening services and risk reduction counseling in clinical settings and community health workers provided lifestyle interventions in community settings either over the phone or in person. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The data included weight, blood pressure measures, self-blood pressure monitoring and management, total cholesterol, fasting glucose or A1C, smoking status, nutrition, and physical activities. RESULTS: Among 2649 participants, 82.2% were overweight, 50.3% had hypertension, 52.7% had high cholesterol, 20.7% had diabetes, 22.5% were current smokers, and 56.4% had more than 1 risk factor. A total of 1312 participants (57.3%) participated in at least 1 lifestyle intervention session, and among them, 65.8% completed at least 3 sessions. Paired t test and McNemar's test indicated significant improvement in hypertension control and self-management; a significant amount of weight loss with 24.1% losing at least 5 pounds; and an increase in healthy eating and physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: These participants benefited from the Nebraska program. Utilizing a statewide clinical network and participating in lifestyle interventions through local health departments, participants improved some chronic health conditions and decreased their risks of developing cardiovascular diseases.

Pre-Pandemic Landscape of the Oklahoma Public Health Workforce: A Case Study From the Region 6 Training Needs Assessment Survey, 2019.

CONTEXT: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for a well-trained public health workforce prior to the public health crisis. Public health training centers regularly assess workforce needs and their pre-pandemic data play vital roles in guiding public health workforce development beyond the crisis. PROGRAM: In 2019, Oklahoma partners of the Region 6 South Central Public Health Training Center (R6SCPHTC) co-conducted an online survey of the public health workforce located in the Health Resources & Services Administration Region 6. IMPLEMENTATION: Between March and April, the R6SCPHTC collected 503 surveys, including 201 surveys from Oklahoma. Questions inquired about demographic and workforce characteristics, work contexts, training needs and interests, training access and logistics, and knowledge of R6SCPHTC online resources. EVALUATION: Key findings included that two-thirds of the pre-pandemic Oklahoma public health workforce consisted of employees age 40 or older with few holding public health or medical degrees. The majority of respondents worked for health departments and Tribes, and almost half were frontline workers. Although at least half of the participants interested in training on public health activities and topics were familiar with them, confidence in their abilities related to these activities and topics was expressed by less than half. Qualitative data provided details on training needs addressed quantitatively and described new training areas. Survey participants expressed interest in diverse training delivery methods and technological devices. Most respondents were not familiar with the free trainings available through the R6SCPHTC. DISCUSSION: Similar to the regional and national public health workforce, Oklahoma's workforce needed training and support already before COVID-19. Time and resources need to be invested into the current and future workforce. While addressing priority public health skills and topics remains important, training on current and emerging topics is needed. Providing accessible trainings with expanded content will prepare Oklahoma's public health workforce for the future.

Large-scale physical activity data reveal worldwide activity inequality.

To be able to curb the global pandemic of physical inactivity and the associated 5.3 million deaths per year, we need to understand the basic principles that govern physical activity. However, there is a lack of large-scale measurements of physical activity patterns across free-living populations worldwide. Here we leverage the wide usage of smartphones with built-in accelerometry to measure physical activity at the global scale. We study a dataset consisting of 68 million days of physical activity for 717,527 people, giving us a window into activity in 111 countries across the globe. We find inequality in how activity is distributed within countries and that this inequality is a better predictor of obesity prevalence in the population than average activity volume. Reduced activity in females contributes to a large portion of the observed activity inequality. Aspects of the built environment, such as the walkability of a city, are associated with a smaller gender gap in activity and lower activity inequality. In more walkable cities, activity is greater throughout the day and throughout the week, across age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) groups, with the greatest increases in activity found for females. Our findings have implications for global public health policy and urban planning and highlight the role of activity inequality and the built environment in improving physical activity and health.

PubChem in 2021: new data content and improved web interfaces.

PubChem (https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov) is a popular chemical information resource that serves the scientific community as well as the general public, with millions of unique users per month. In the past two years, PubChem made substantial improvements. Data from more than 100 new data sources were added to PubChem, including chemical-literature links from Thieme Chemistry, chemical and physical property links from SpringerMaterials, and patent links from the World Intellectual Properties Organization (WIPO). PubChem's homepage and individual record pages were updated to help users find desired information faster. This update involved a data model change for the data objects used by these pages as well as by programmatic users. Several new services were introduced, including the PubChem Periodic Table and Element pages, Pathway pages, and Knowledge panels. Additionally, in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, PubChem created a special data collection that contains PubChem data related to COVID-19 and the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

Learning from the universal, proactive outreach of the Brazilian Community Health Worker model: impact of a Community Health and Wellbeing Worker initiative on vaccination, cancer screening and NHS health check uptake in a deprived community in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Delays in preventative service uptake are increasing in the UK. Universal, comprehensive monthly outreach by Community Health and Wellbeing Workers (CHW), who are integrated at the GP practice and local authority, offer a promising alternative to general public health campaigns as it personalises health promotion and prevention of disease holistically at the household level. We sought to test the ability of this model, which is based on the Brazilian Family Health Strategy, to increase prevention uptake in the UK. METHODS: Analysis of primary care patient records for 662 households that were allocated to five CHWWs from July 2021. Primary outcome was the Composite Referral Completion Indicator (CRCI), a measure of how many health promotion activities were received by members of a household relative to the ones that they were eligible for during the period July 2021-April 2022. The CRCI was compared between the intervention group (those who had received at least one visit) and the control group (allocated households that were yet to receive a visit). A secondary outcome was the number of GP visits in the intervention and control groups during the study period and compared to a year prior. RESULTS: Intervention and control groups were largely comparable in terms of household occupancy and service eligibilities. A total of 2251 patients in 662 corresponding households were allocated to 5 CHWs and 160 households had received at least one visit during the intervention period. The remaining households were included in the control group. Overall service uptake was 40% higher in the intervention group compared to control group (CRCI: 0.21 ± 0.15 and 0.15 ± 0.19 respectively). Likelihood of immunisation uptake specifically was 47% higher and cancer screening and NHS Health Checks was 82% higher. The average number of GP consultations per household decreased by 7.4% in the intervention group over the first 10 months of the pilot compared to the 10 months preceding its start, compared with a 0.6% decrease in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the short study period these are promising findings in this deprived, traditionally hard to reach community and demonstrates potential for the Brazilian community health worker model to be impactful in the UK. Further analysis is needed to examine if this approach can reduce health inequalities and increase cost effectiveness of health promotion approaches.

Prevalence of diabetes mellitus in Indian tribal population: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus (DM), a significant public health problem across the nations, is among the top ten leading causes of death. More than 370 million indigenous people (referred to as tribal people in India) are spread across 90 countries. India has the largest tribal people of 104 million. Tribal populations are not exceptional to the threat of type 2 DM (T2DM) and other non-communicable diseases, and hence, public health programmes are addressing this problem. This paper reports the systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature on the prevalence of T2DM. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature to understand the prevalence of T2DM among the tribal populations of India, following the guidelines of the PRISMA Statement for Reporting Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis. The gender-wise prevalence was recalculated by extracting the data wherever possible. Forest plots were depicted based on the prevalence, and other analyses were performed. RESULTS: On initial searches from three databases, 5422 citations were identified, and ultimately 27 studies were included in the review. These studies were undertaken amongst different tribes in different parts of India. The pooled prevalence of T2DM among men, women and combined were 6.04% (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.55% to 6.57%), 6.48% (95% CI: 6.01% to 6.99%) and 4.94% (95% CI: 4.72% to 5.17%), respectively. Considerable heterogeneity was found among these studies. CONCLUSION: This systematic review provides an overview of the prevalence of T2DM among the Indian tribal population. The pooled overall prevalence is slightly lower than the general population. This situation is worrisome as the epidemic of T2DM will affect the poor tribal communities, who can least afford to bear the health care costs. Hence, the public health care services must be strengthened in all tribal areas. This review further warrants establishing surveillance of T2DM in tribal areas.

Effect of integrated intervention to prevent child drowning in rural areas of Guangdong, China: a cluster randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Drowning is the leading cause of death for children under the age of 15 years in Guangdong Province, China. This serious public health issue also exists in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which have few value-integrated intervention programs. The current study presents an integrated intervention project that aims to explore an effective pattern of prevention for child drowning in rural areas and feasibility to perform in other LMICs. METHODS: We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial by comparing the incidence of non-fatal drowning among children in two groups in rural areas of southern China. We recruited the participants in two phases and reached a total of 10 687 students from 23 schools at two towns in Guangdong Province, China. At the first and second phases, 8966 and 1721 students were recruited, respectively. RESULTS: The final evaluation questionnaires were collected after 18 months of integrated intervention, where we obtained 9791 data from Grades 3-9. The incidence of non-fatal drowning between the intervention and control groups after intervention did not differ significantly from the baseline according to the total number of students, male students, female students and Grades 6-9 [0.81; 95% confidence interval (CI): [0.66, 1.00]; p = 0.05, 1.17; 95% CI: [0.90, 1.51]; p = 0.25, 1.40; 95% CI: [0.97, 2.02]; p = 0.07 and 0.97; 95% CI: [0.70, 1.34]; p = 0.86], except for Grades 3-5 (1.36; 95% CI: [1.02, 1.82]; p = 0.037). The study observed a significantly positive benefit of awareness and risk behaviours of non-fatal drowning between the intervention and control groups (0.27, 95% CI: [0.21, 0.33]; p = 0.00, -0.16; 95% CI: [-0.24, -0.08]; p = 0.00). CONCLUSIONS: The integrated intervention exerted a significant impact on the prevention and management of child non-fatal drowning, especially in rural areas.