RESUMEN
Western equine encephalitis virus (WEEV) is a mosquitoborne virus that reemerged in December 2023 in Argentina and Uruguay, causing a major outbreak. We investigated the outbreak using epidemiologic, entomological, and genomic analyses, focusing on WEEV circulation near the ArgentinaâUruguay border in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. During November 2023âApril 2024, the outbreak in Argentina and Uruguay resulted in 217 human cases, 12 of which were fatal, and 2,548 equine cases. We determined cases on the basis of laboratory and clinical epidemiologic criteria. We characterized 3 fatal equine cases caused by a novel WEEV lineage identified through a nearly complete coding sequence analysis, which we propose as lineage C. Our findings highlight the importance of continued surveillance and equine vaccination to control future WEEV outbreaks in South America.
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Brotes de Enfermedades , Virus de la Encefalitis Equina del Oeste , Epidemiología Molecular , Filogenia , Animales , Virus de la Encefalitis Equina del Oeste/genética , Humanos , Caballos , Uruguay/epidemiología , América del Sur/epidemiología , Enfermedades de los Caballos/epidemiología , Enfermedades de los Caballos/virología , Masculino , Encefalomielitis Equina del Oeste/epidemiología , Encefalomielitis Equina del Oeste/virología , Femenino , Argentina/epidemiología , Encefalomielitis Equina/epidemiología , Encefalomielitis Equina/virología , Encefalomielitis Equina/veterinaria , AdultoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: There are no trend studies on various health risk behaviours among adolescents in Uruguay. Therefore, this study looked at trends in a number of health-risky behaviours among adolescents in Uruguay from three separate surveys. METHODS: Data from 9272 adolescents (age range: 11-16 years), who took part in three cross-sectional national in-school surveys in Uruguay in 2006, 2012 and 2019 were analysed. A self-administered survey was used to evaluate 24 health risk behaviours. By using logistic regression analyses to treat the study year as a categorical variable and adjusting food insecurity and age, linear trends were examined. RESULTS: We found a significant increase in the prevalence of being overweight, having obesity, inadequate fruit intake, sedentary behaviour in leisure-time, physical inactivity, bullying victimisation, loneliness, suicidal ideation, and sexual activity. We found a significant decrease in current cigarette use, physical fighting and current alcohol use. Among males, a significant increase of non-condom use, and a decrease in current other tobacco use (other than cigarettes), being physically attacked and the number of sexual partners. Among females, we found an increase in food insecurity, trouble from alcohol use, multiple sexual partners, and sleep problems. CONCLUSION: Overall, from 2006 to 2019, there was a decrease in seven health risk behaviours among boys and/or girls. Among boys, there was an increase in 10 health risk behaviours and among girls, 15 health risk behaviours increased, highlighting adolescent girls' greater vulnerability, thereby perpetuating further gendered health inequalities. In Uruguay, school health programmes for adolescents are recommended.
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Conducta del Adolescente , Conductas de Riesgo para la Salud , Humanos , Adolescente , Uruguay/epidemiología , Femenino , Masculino , Estudios Transversales , Niño , Conducta del Adolescente/psicología , Acoso Escolar/estadística & datos numéricos , Conducta Sexual/estadística & datos numéricos , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The worldwide incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) is estimated at 0.5-10 cases per 100,000 person-years and is probably increasing. In 2014, a previous study estimated the incidence of multiple sclerosis in Uruguay at 1.2 cases per 100,000 person-years. OBJECTIVES: We conducted an observational, prospective, population-based study to determine MS incidence from diagnosis in Uruguay. METHODS: The population studied included people older than 18 years of age who were living in Uruguay between July 1, 2019, and June 30, 2021. The diagnosis was based on 2017 McDonald criteria. Multiple data sources were employed including neurologists, magnetic resonance imaging centers, laboratories performing oligoclonal band testing, neurophysiology laboratories, neurorehabilitation centers, the institution Fondo Nacional de Recursos, and the MS Patients' Association of Uruguay (EMUR). The capture-recapture method was used to estimate incidence. RESULTS: 155 new MS cases were confirmed after review. The median age was 35 (range 18-62). Thirteen patients (8.38%) were diagnosed with late-onset MS. The crude incidence rate was 2.89 cases per 100,000 person-years, 3.95 among females, and 1.72 among male patients. The incidence rate estimated using the capture-recapture method was 3.18 (95% CI: 3.02-3.34). CONCLUSIONS: According to the Atlas of MS, Uruguay has a low incidence rate (2.0-3.99), even though it is one of the highest in Latin America. Our country aligns with the global trend of increasing incidence. Age and sex distribution were similar to other studies, with a high incidence of patients with late-onset multiple sclerosis. The capture-recapture method confirms the exhaustivity of our investigation.
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Esclerosis Múltiple , Humanos , Uruguay/epidemiología , Adulto , Masculino , Femenino , Incidencia , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Prospectivos , Esclerosis Múltiple/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
With the increasing rate of infections caused by multidrug-resistant organisms (MDRO), selecting appropriate empiric antibiotics has become challenging. We aimed to develop and externally validate a model for predicting the risk of MDRO infections in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We included patients with cirrhosis and bacterial infections from two prospective studies: a transcontinental study was used for model development and internal validation (n = 1302), and a study from Argentina and Uruguay was used for external validation (n = 472). All predictors were measured at the time of infection. Both culture-positive and culture-negative infections were included. The model was developed using logistic regression with backward stepwise predictor selection. We externally validated the optimism-adjusted model using calibration and discrimination statistics and evaluated its clinical utility. RESULTS: The prevalence of MDRO infections was 19% and 22% in the development and external validation datasets, respectively. The model's predictors were sex, prior antibiotic use, type and site of infection, MELD-Na, use of vasopressors, acute-on-chronic liver failure, and interaction terms. Upon external validation, the calibration slope was 77 (95% CI .48-1.05), and the area under the ROC curve was .68 (95% CI .61-.73). The application of the model significantly changed the post-test probability of having an MDRO infection, identifying patients with nosocomial infection at very low risk (8%) and patients with community-acquired infections at significant risk (36%). CONCLUSION: This model achieved adequate performance and could be used to improve the selection of empiric antibiotics, aligning with other antibiotic stewardship program strategies.
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Antibacterianos , Infecciones Bacterianas , Farmacorresistencia Bacteriana Múltiple , Cirrosis Hepática , Humanos , Cirrosis Hepática/complicaciones , Masculino , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Infecciones Bacterianas/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones Bacterianas/diagnóstico , Infecciones Bacterianas/microbiología , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Argentina/epidemiología , Estudios Prospectivos , Anciano , Uruguay/epidemiología , Modelos Logísticos , Factores de Riesgo , Adulto , Medición de Riesgo , Curva ROCRESUMEN
The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) causes chytridiomycosis, a disease among the main causes of amphibian declines worldwide. However, Bd studies on Neotropical amphibians from temperate areas are scarce. We present a comprehensive survey of Bd in Uruguay, in temperate central eastern South America, carried out between 2006 and 2014. Skin swabs of 535 specimens of 21 native and exotic frogs were tested by PCR. We used individual-level data to examine the relationship between infection, climatic variables, and their effects on body condition and the number of prey items found in stomach contents. Infection was widespread in free-ranging anurans with an overall prevalence of 41.9%, detected in 15 native species, wild American bullfrogs Aquarana catesbeiana, and captive specimens of Ceratophrys ornata and Xenopus laevis. Three haplotypes of the Bd ITS region were identified in native amphibians, all belonging to the global panzootic lineage (BdGPL), of which only one was present in exotic hosts. Despite high infection frequencies in different anurans, we found no evidence of morbidity or mortality attributable to chytridiomycosis, and we observed no discernible impact on body condition or consumed prey. Climatic conditions at the time of our surveys suggested that the chance of infection is associated with monthly mean temperature, mean humidity, and total precipitation. Temperatures below 21°C combined with moderate humidity and pronounced rainfall may increase the likelihood of infection. Multiple haplotypes of BdGPL combined with high frequencies of infection suggest an enzootic pattern in native species, underscoring the need for continued monitoring.
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Clima , Micosis , Animales , Micosis/veterinaria , Micosis/epidemiología , Micosis/microbiología , Uruguay/epidemiología , Batrachochytrium/genética , Anuros/microbiología , Quitridiomicetos/aislamiento & purificaciónRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading causes of global mortality. Modifiable behavioural and metabolic risk factors significantly contribute to the burden of CVD. Given the vast socio-demographic and health outcome heterogeneity in Latin America, similar southern Latin American countries (Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay) were analysed as a distinct group to describe the CVD death rates related to metabolic and behavioural risk factors. STUDY DESIGN: An ecological study was performed using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. METHODS: Metabolic and behavioural risk factors-related CVD death were examined by analysing age-standardised rates per 100,000 individuals in the three countries between 1990 and 2019. RESULTS: While exposure to behavioural risk is decreasing, an upwards trend was observed in metabolic risks. Among the assessed risk factors, metabolic factors emerged as the primary contributors to deaths. High fasting plasma glucose exhibited a remarkable increase in relative importance across most studied contexts. Dietary risks stood out among behavioural factors due to their complexity and substantial changes observed. Although mortality rates have declined for overall CVD, peripheral artery disease mortality is rising. CONCLUSION: Modifiable behavioural and metabolic risk factors significantly influence CVD mortality in Southern Latin America. Despite the increasing exposure to metabolic risks, advancements in prevention and treatment are evidenced in the decline of mortality rates for most CVD. These findings emphasise the need for targeted interventions and comprehensive strategies to address their impact on cardiovascular health, advocating for healthy lifestyle behaviours to mitigate the progression and CVD development.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Carga Global de Enfermedades , Humanos , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/mortalidad , Masculino , Factores de Riesgo , Femenino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Uruguay/epidemiología , Chile/epidemiología , América Latina/epidemiología , Adulto , Argentina/epidemiología , AncianoRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: In Uruguay, productive animals are attacked by various predators, causing injuries and financial losses, leading to great concern for farmers. The objective of this study was to determine, using a cross-sectional study, if predator attacks on productive animals during the year 2021 influenced the psychological distress of farmers. METHODS: Four hundred and forty-two farmers from around the country were surveyed with questions according to the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (dependent variable), and predator attacks received in 2021 (independent variable). RESULTS: Of the total number of farmers surveyed, approximately 49% (216/442) had animals that had been attacked by predators. Farmers whose productive species were attacked in 2021 had higher levels of psychological distress than those whose animals were not attacked (p<0.01). Additionally, farmers who reported the highest levels of psychological distress had more deaths of productive species (and more financial losses) from predator attacks in 2021 than those who did not. CONCLUSION: The losses of productive species and the financial costs negatively influenced the psychological distress of farmers. This information highlights the need to generate public policies about farmers wellbeing that help them in these situations.
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Agricultores , Distrés Psicológico , Animales , Humanos , Agricultores/psicología , Estudios Transversales , Uruguay/epidemiología , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
The only genus of the Francisellaceae family known to contain species pathogenic to mammals is Francisella, for which reported cases in the Southern Hemisphere have been limited to Australia. We describe severe necrotizing and inflammatory lesions and intralesional immunohistochemical identification of Francisella sp. lipopolysaccharide among aborted ovine fetuses in Uruguay.
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Enfermedades de las Ovejas , Embarazo , Femenino , Humanos , Ovinos , Animales , Uruguay/epidemiología , Enfermedades de las Ovejas/epidemiología , Enfermedades de las Ovejas/patología , Aborto Veterinario/patología , Oveja Doméstica , Feto Abortado/patologíaRESUMEN
Cryptococcus neoformans and C. gattii species complexes (phylum: Basidiomycota) are environmental yeasts and are the main cause of human cryptococcosis worldwide. The most recent molecular typing studies in Latin America have focused on the intertropical region. Thus, this study aimed to update the knowledge of human cryptococcosis in the South American temperate region. We obtained and analyzed 116 C. neoformans/C. gattii species complexes isolates from the Public Health Surveillance Laboratory between 2008-2013 and 2017-2021 (C. gattii species complex = 1 and C. neoformans species complex = 115). The average patient age was 45 years, with an overall male:female ratio of 3.1:1. The proportion of HIV-negative patients was significantly higher in the second study period. Restriction fragment length polymorphism typing of URA5 gene revealed that the C. neoformans species complex comprised 75.7% VNI, 2.6% VNII, 0.9% VNIII, 1.7% VNIV, 17.4% VNII/VNIV hybrids, and one C. neoformans isolate (0.9%) misidentified as VGI; the C. gattii species complex isolates comprised one VGII. The overall case fatality rate was 49.5%, with no differences in lethality between VNI and hybrid isolates. Of the four isolates responsible for episodes of reoccurrence, only one had a genotype different from the first episode. Antifungal susceptibility testing revealed that most isolates fell below the local epidemiological cut-off value. This study provides additional information for the analysis of C. neoformans/C. gattii species complexes dynamics in the South American temperate region.
This study describes the epidemiological and molecular trends of human cryptococcosis according to the public health Uruguayan surveillance network. The findings provide additional information for analyzing the Cryptococcusneoformans/C. gattii species complexes in the South American temperate region.
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Criptococosis , Cryptococcus gattii , Cryptococcus neoformans , Humanos , Masculino , Femenino , Animales , Antifúngicos/farmacología , Uruguay/epidemiología , Criptococosis/epidemiología , Criptococosis/microbiología , Criptococosis/veterinaria , Tipificación Molecular/veterinaria , Genotipo , Técnicas de Tipificación Micológica/veterinariaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: With regard to the origin of its population and microevolutionary processes, Uruguay exhibits distinctive features that distinguish it from other countries in Latin America, while at the same time sharing several similarities. In this article, we will focus on the variability of paternal genetic lineages in two geographical regions with different histories that can be considered as examples of distinct populations for the continent. In general terms, the genetic diversity is a result of different demographic processes related to the American conquest and colonisation. These resulted in distinct ancestral components which vary geographical and depend on the distribution by sex within these components. In Uruguay, native maternal haplogroups are significantly more frequent in the North. Although there are several studies about the geneticvariability of Uruguay, little is known about male genetic lineages. AIMS: The aim of this work is to present an updated study of the male genetic variability of the Uruguayan population. METHODS: We analyzed 13 biallelic markers and 27 STRs located in the male-specific region of the Y chromosome for 157 males: 98 from the capital, Montevideo, and 59 from Tacuarembó. RESULTS: Almost all haplogroups found in both locations are European (99% and 93.2% respectively). One Sub-Saharan African haplogroup was found in Montevideo (1%) and 2 in Tacuarembó (3%), while Native haplogroups were found only in Tacuarembó, evidencing a strong sex-biased admixture. By crossing genetic and genealogical information we could relate European haplogroups with different waves and times of migrations. DISCUSSION: Network analysis indicated a very diverse male population, suggesting that European migrants came from heterogeneous geographic locations and in different waves. Tacuarembó has closer population affinities with Iberian populations while Montevideo is more diverse. Male population expansion expansion, can be explained by the large number of migrants that arrived during the XIX century and the first half of the XX century. CONCLUSIONS: The Uruguayan male gene pool is the result of several migration waves with diverse origins, with strong sex-biased admixture that can be explained by the European migration, the violence against the indigenous males, and the segregation of the Africansadmixture that can be explained due to European migration, violence against Natives, and segregation against African males.admixture that can be explained due to European migration, violence against Natives, and segregation against African males.admixture that can be explained due to European migration, violence against Natives, and segregation against African males.admixture that can be explained due to European migration, violence against Natives, and segregation of hte Africans.
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Cromosomas Humanos Y , Genética de Población , Humanos , Masculino , Cromosomas Humanos Y/genética , Haplotipos , Uruguay/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: there is insufficient data regarding bacterial infections in patients with cirrhosis to support recommendations for empiric antibiotic treatments, particularly in Latin America. This study aimed to evaluate bacterial infection's clinical impact and microbiological characteristics, intending to serve as a platform to revise current practices. MATERIALS AND METHODS: multicenter prospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis and bacterial infections from Argentina and Uruguay. Patient and infection-related information were collected, focusing on microbiology, antibiotic susceptibility patterns, and outcomes. RESULTS: 472 patients were included. Spontaneous bacterial infections and urinary tract infections (UTIs) were registered in 187 (39.6%) and 116 (24.6%) patients, respectively, representing the most common infections. Of the 256 culture-positive infections, 103 (40.2%) were caused by multidrug-resistant organisms (reaching 50% for UTI), and 181 (70.7%) received adequate initial antibiotic treatment. The coverage of cefepime and ceftriaxone was over 70% for the empirical treatment of community-acquired spontaneous infections, but ceftazidime´s coverage was only 40%. For all UTI cases and for healthcare-associated or nosocomial spontaneous bacterial infections, the lower-spectrum antibiotics that covered at least 70% of the isolations were imipenem and meropenem. During hospitalization, a second bacterial infection was diagnosed in 9.8% of patients, 23.9% required at least one organ support, and 19.5% died. CONCLUSIONS: short-term mortality of bacterial infections in patients with cirrhosis is very high, and a high percentage were caused by multidrug-resistant organisms, particularly in UTIs. The information provided might serve to adapt recommendations, particularly related to empirical antibiotic treatment in Argentina and Uruguay. The study was registered in Clinical Trials (NCT03919032).
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Infecciones Bacterianas , Infecciones Comunitarias Adquiridas , Infección Hospitalaria , Infecciones Urinarias , Humanos , Estudios Prospectivos , Argentina/epidemiología , Uruguay/epidemiología , Infecciones Bacterianas/diagnóstico , Infecciones Bacterianas/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones Bacterianas/epidemiología , Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Cirrosis Hepática/complicaciones , Cirrosis Hepática/diagnóstico , Cirrosis Hepática/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones Urinarias/diagnóstico , Infecciones Urinarias/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones Urinarias/epidemiología , Bacterias , Infección Hospitalaria/diagnóstico , Infección Hospitalaria/tratamiento farmacológico , Infección Hospitalaria/epidemiología , Infecciones Comunitarias Adquiridas/tratamiento farmacológicoRESUMEN
Systemic candidiasis are high mortality infections caused by yeasts of the genus Candida, affecting patients with numerous risk factors. Nowadays, candidemia produced by "non-albicans" species has increased considerably. Timely diagnosis and subsequent treatment substantially improve patients' survival. Our objectives are to study the frequency, distribution, and antifungal susceptibility profiles of candidemia isolates in our hospital. We conducted a descriptive, cross-sectional study. Positive blood cultures were recorded from January 2018 to December 2021. Positive Candida genus blood cultures were selected, classified, and analyzed on their susceptibility profile for amphotericin B, fluconazole and caspofungin using AST-YS08® card for VITEK 2 Compact® to determine minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) and CLSI M60 2020 2nd Edition to determine breakpoints. 3862 positive blood cultures were obtained, 113 (2.93%) presented growth of Candida spp., corresponding to 58 patients. 55.2% came from the Hospitalization Ward and Emergency Services and 44.8% from the Intensive Care Unit. The species were distributed as follows: Nakaseomyces glabratus (Candida glabrata) (32.74%), Candida albicans (27.43%), Candida parapsilosis (23.01%), Candida tropicalis (7.08%) and others (9.73%). Most species were found to be susceptible to most antifungals, except for C. parapsilosis, presenting 4 isolates with resistance to fluconazole and N. glabratus (C. glabrata), whose clinical susceptibility data remains insufficient to provide accurate breakpoints. The percentage of recorded positive blood cultures of Candida spp. was 2.93%, these results were consistent with those reported at a regional level. A predominance of "non-albicans" species was observed. It is essential to know the prevalence, epidemiology, and susceptibility profiles of candidemia in our country, as well as being updated on its subsequent changes, maintaining epidemiological surveillance. This allows professionals to map out early and effective therapeutic strategies, staying alert of possible multi-resistant strains.
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Antifúngicos , Candidemia , Humanos , Antifúngicos/farmacología , Antifúngicos/uso terapéutico , Candidemia/tratamiento farmacológico , Candidemia/epidemiología , Candidemia/microbiología , Fluconazol/farmacología , Uruguay/epidemiología , Estudios Transversales , Candida , Candida glabrata , Hospitales Universitarios , Candida parapsilosis , Pruebas de Sensibilidad Microbiana , Farmacorresistencia FúngicaRESUMEN
OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association between different types of dental prostheses (and residual dentition) and oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL). METHODS: A population-based study with a representative sample of adults and older adults in Uruguay (2010-2011). The dependent variable was the score on the oral impact on daily performance (OIDP), and the main predictor was the pattern of tooth loss and prosthesis use. Covariates included sex, age, socioeconomic status, education, missing teeth, pain and decayed teeth. Negative binomial regression was used. RESULTS: The sample comprised 762 participants. Those participants not wearing a prosthesis and with extensive tooth loss had a mean OIDP of 3.1 (95% CI = 1.6-6.2), while those wearing removable partial dentures (RPD) and having <12 missing teeth had a mean OIDP of 3.6 (95% CI = 1.3-10.0). Participants with a free-end saddle had the highest mean OIDP, at 4.9 (95% CI = 2.0-12.1). For participants with ≤12 missing teeth, any additional missing tooth was associated with an 11% higher OIDP score. Participants who wore RDPs reported fewer impacts on OHRQoL if they had extensive tooth loss or anterior tooth loss than those with a free-end saddle, or who had lost fewer teeth. CONCLUSIONS: The use of RPDs is associated with better OHRQoL. These findings may be valuable in clinical practice and prosthetic planning.
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Implantes Dentales , Pérdida de Diente , Humanos , Anciano , Calidad de Vida , Salud Bucal , Pérdida de Diente/epidemiología , Dentición , Uruguay/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The Uruguayan east coast has several mineral resources, which include black sand ores in the Barra de Valizas-Aguas Dulces area. Cancer in Uruguay shows non-homogeneous geographical distribution, with the highest standardized mortality ratio (SMR) in the northeast and east region, which includes the aforementioned area and the town of Barra de Valizas. The activity concentration of natural radionuclides (226Ra, 232Th and 40 K) in Barra de Valizas´soil was determined by gamma spectrometry in order to evaluate the radiological hazard for inhabitants and tourists. The outdoor annual effective dose (AEDE), excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR), and annual gonadal dose equivalent (AGDE) were evaluated for inhabitants with a life expectancy of 77.7 years, a 0.2 and 0.5 occupancy factor, and using the conversion coefficients recommended by United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). The annual effective dose was also evaluated for both summer and fortnight tourists. The radiological hazard indices for Barra de Valizas inhabitants are higher than the worldwide mean and recommended values. This may contribute to Rocha's higher SRM value, although a direct correlation cannot be assured with the epidemiological information currently available. Social, medical and anthropological studies will be carried out in future to provide data and verify this correlation.
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Neoplasias , Monitoreo de Radiación , Radio (Elemento) , Contaminantes Radiactivos del Suelo , Humanos , Uruguay/epidemiología , Contaminantes Radiactivos del Suelo/análisis , Monitoreo de Radiación/métodos , Radioisótopos/análisis , Radio (Elemento)/análisisRESUMEN
The current government of Germany has agreed on legalizing the recreational use of cannabis in their coalition agreement. Legalization will be implemented in 2023. This issue has continuously been a subject of controversial discussion including most parts of society, executive authorities and science. This article refers to the experiences of other countries (Uruguay, Canada, USA) yet having legalized Cannabis in the past and tries to discuss implications for Germany.
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Cannabis , Humanos , Canadá/epidemiología , Alemania , Legislación de Medicamentos , Uruguay/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The test positivity (TP) rate has emerged as an important metric for gauging the illness burden due to COVID-19. Given the importance of COVID-19 TP rates for understanding COVID-related morbidity, researchers and clinicians have become increasingly interested in comparing TP rates across countries. The statistical methods for performing such comparisons fall into two general categories: frequentist tests and Bayesian methods. Using data from Our World in Data (ourworldindata.org), we performed comparisons for two prototypical yet disparate pairs of countries: Bolivia versus the United States (large vs. small-to-moderate TP rates), and South Korea vs. Uruguay (two very small TP rates of similar magnitude). Three different statistical procedures were used: two frequentist tests (an asymptotic z-test and the 'N-1' chi-square test), and a Bayesian method for comparing two proportions (TP rates are proportions). Results indicated that for the case of large vs. small-to-moderate TP rates (Bolivia versus the United States), the frequentist and Bayesian approaches both indicated that the two rates were substantially different. When the TP rates were very small and of similar magnitude (values of 0.009 and 0.007 for South Korea and Uruguay, respectively), the frequentist tests indicated a highly significant contrast, despite the apparent trivial amount by which the two rates differ. The Bayesian method, in comparison, suggested that the TP rates were practically equivalent-a finding that seems more consistent with the observed data. When TP rates are highly similar in magnitude, frequentist tests can lead to erroneous interpretations. A Bayesian approach, on the other hand, can help ensure more accurate inferences and thereby avoid potential decision errors that could lead to costly public health and policy-related consequences.
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Prueba de COVID-19/estadística & datos numéricos , Prueba de COVID-19/tendencias , COVID-19/epidemiología , Interpretación Estadística de Datos , Proyectos de Investigación/estadística & datos numéricos , Proyectos de Investigación/tendencias , Teorema de Bayes , Bolivia/epidemiología , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Humanos , República de Corea/epidemiología , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Uruguay/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Epidemic control may be hampered when the percentage of asymptomatic cases is high. Seeking remedies for this problem, test positivity was explored between the first 60 to 90 epidemic days in six countries that reported their first COVID-19 case between February and March 2020: Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Cuba, Mexico, and Uruguay. Test positivity (TP) is the percentage of test-positive individuals reported on a given day out of all individuals tested the same day. To generate both country-specific and multi-country information, this study was implemented in two stages. First, the epidemiologic data of the country infected last (Uruguay) were analyzed. If at least one TP-related analysis yielded a statistically significant relationship, later assessments would investigate the six countries. The Uruguayan data indicated (i) a positive correlation between daily TP and daily new cases (râ¯=â¯0.75); (ii) a negative correlation between TP and the number of tests conducted per million inhabitants (TPMI, râ¯=â¯-0.66); and (iii) three temporal stages, which differed from one another in both TP and TPMI medians (pâ¯<â¯0.01) and, together, revealed a negative relationship between TPMI and TP. No significant relationship was found between TP and the number of active or recovered patients. The six countries showed a positive correlation between TP and the number of deaths/million inhabitants (DMI, râ¯=â¯0.65, pâ¯<â¯0.01). With one exception -a country where isolation was not pursued-, all countries showed a negative correlation between TP and TPMI (râ¯=â¯0.74). The temporal analysis of country-specific policies revealed four patterns, characterized by: (1) low TPMI and high DMI, (2) high TPMI and low DMI; (3) an intermediate pattern, and (4) high TPMI and high DMI. Findings support the hypothesis that test positivity may guide epidemiologic policy-making, provided that policy-related factors are considered and high-resolution geographical data are utilized.
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Infecciones Asintomáticas/epidemiología , Prueba de COVID-19/métodos , Prueba de COVID-19/normas , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiología , Argentina/epidemiología , Bolivia/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Prueba de COVID-19/tendencias , Chile/epidemiología , Cuba/epidemiología , Epidemias/prevención & control , Humanos , México/epidemiología , Mortalidad/tendencias , Uruguay/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
AIMS: To estimate the risk of human rotavirus (RV) and astrovirus (HAstV) infections for swimmers and fishers at Las Cañas beach, Uruguay. METHODS AND RESULTS: Surface water samples were collected monthly for 1 year. The dose-response models used were ß-Poisson and 1 F1 hypergeometric for RV and HAstV, respectively. The probabilities of infection were calculated using a kernel density estimate to fitting the data and then sampling from this distribution (Monte Carlo simulation). The probability of RV infection for fishers was between 0 and 65% and for swimmers was between 0 and 50% (<18 years old) and between 0 and 38% (>18 years old). For HAstV, the probability of infection for fishers was between 0% and 45% and for swimmers was between 0 and 38% (<18 years old) and between 0 and 18% (>18 years old). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that fishers are at higher risk of infection for both viruses compared with swimmers mainly due to higher viral frequency and concentration at the site for fishing activities.
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Infecciones por Astroviridae , Mamastrovirus , Rotavirus , Humanos , Adolescente , Rotavirus/genética , Mamastrovirus/genética , Natación , Uruguay/epidemiología , Caza , HecesAsunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/virología , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidad , Adolescente , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/transmisión , Vacunas contra la COVID-19/administración & dosificación , Niño , Humanos , Programas de Inmunización , Opinión Pública , Factores de Tiempo , Uruguay/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The Latin American and Caribbean adolescent fertility rates are among the highest in the world: about 1.7 million children are born to teen mothers every year, and most of them are declared unintended pregnancies. The region also has the highest rate of unintended pregnancy of any world region, and nearly half of such pregnancies end in abortion. However, fewer than 18 percent of the region's women live in countries where abortion is broadly legal. This paper estimates the causal effect of abortion legalization on adolescent fertility in Uruguay using official data on legal abortions provided after the 2012 reform. We employed a difference-in-differences strategy, classifying states by whether they are responsive or unresponsive to the reform. The results suggest that abortion reform had a negative impact on the adolescent birth rate by 2.5-2.8 births per thousand adolescents aged 15-19 (a 4 percent decrease from the preintervention average). Additionally, we exploited variation in reform implementation intensity through the estimation of fixed-effect linear regression models and found consistent results. Our findings are robust to controlling for a concurrent large-scale program of contraceptive implants. We conclude that legislation aimed at enhancing rights and reducing avoidable deaths and complications from unsafe abortions may also have spillover effects that help reduce adolescent fertility.