[Fine particulate matter estimated by mathematical model and hospitalizations for pneumonia and asthma in children]. / Material particulado fino estimado por modelo matemático e internações por pneumonia e asma em crianças.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the association between exposure to fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 microns (PM2.5) and hospitalizations for pneumonia and asthma in children. METHODS: An ecological study of time series was performed, with daily indicators of hospitalization for pneumonia and asthma in children up to 10 years of age, living in Taubaté (SP) and estimated concentrations of PM2.5, between August 2011 and July 2012. A generalized additive model of Poisson regression was used to estimate the relative risk, with lag zero up to five days after exposure; the single pollutant model was adjusted by the apparent temperature, as defined from the temperature and relative air humidity, seasonality and weekday. RESULTS: The values of the relative risks for hospitalization for pneumonia and asthma were significant for lag 0 (RR=1.051, 95%CI; 1.016 to 1.088); lag 2 (RR=1.066, 95%CI 1.023 to 1.113); lag 3 (RR=1.053, 95%CI 1.015 to 1.092); lag 4 (RR=1.043, 95%CI 1.004 to 1.088) and lag 5 (RR=1.061, 95%CI 1.018 to 1.106). The increase of 5mcg/m(3) in PM2.5 contributes to increase the relative risk for hospitalization from 20.3 to 38.4 percentage points; however, the reduction of 5µg/m(3) in PM2.5 concentration results in 38 fewer hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to PM2.5 was associated with hospitalizations for pneumonia and asthma in children younger than 10 years of age, showing the role of fine particulate matter in child health and providing subsidies for the implementation of preventive measures to decrease these outcomes.