Assessing the Potential Impact of Disruptions Due to COVID-19 on HIV Among Key and Lower-Risk Populations in the Largest Cities of Cameroon and Benin.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr
; 87(3): 899-911, 2021 07 01.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33657058
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The COVID-19 pandemic indirectly impacts HIV epidemiology in Central/West Africa. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV prevention/treatment services and sexual partnerships on HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths among key populations including female sex workers (FSW), their clients, men who have sex with men, and overall.SETTING:
Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Cotonou (Benin).METHODS:
We used mathematical models of HIV calibrated to city population-specific and risk population-specific demographic/behavioral/epidemic data. We estimated the relative change in 1-year HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths for various disruption scenarios of HIV prevention/treatment services and decreased casual/commercial partnerships, compared with a scenario without COVID-19.RESULTS:
A 50% reduction in condom use in all partnerships over 6 months would increase 1-year HIV incidence by 39%, 42%, 31%, and 23% among men who have sex with men, FSW, clients, and overall in Yaoundé, respectively, and 69%, 49%, and 23% among FSW, clients, and overall, respectively, in Cotonou. Combining a 6-month interruption of ART initiation and 50% reduction in HIV prevention/treatment use would increase HIV incidence by 50% and HIV-related deaths by 20%. This increase in HIV infections would be halved by a simultaneous 50% reduction in casual and commercial partnerships.CONCLUSIONS:
Reductions in condom use after COVID-19 would increase infections among key populations disproportionately, particularly FSW in Cotonou, who need uninterrupted condom provision. Disruptions in HIV prevention/treatment services have the biggest impacts on HIV infections and deaths overall, only partially mitigated by equal reductions in casual/commercial sexual partnerships. Maintaining ART provision must be prioritized to minimize short-term excess HIV-related deaths.
Texto completo:
1
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Infecciones por VIH
/
VIH-1
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Límite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
País/Región como asunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr
Asunto de la revista:
SINDROME DA IMUNODEFICIENCIA ADQUIRIDA (AIDS)
Año:
2021
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Reino Unido