Post pandemic fatigue: what are effective strategies?
Sci Rep
; 12(1): 9706, 2022 06 11.
Article
en En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35690631
ABSTRACT
Recurrent updates in non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aim to control successive waves of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but are often met with low adherence by the public. This study evaluated the effectiveness of gathering restrictions and quarantine policies based on a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Hospitalized-Recovered (SEIHR) model by incorporating cross-boundary travellers with or without quarantine to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with data spanning a nine-month period during 2020 in Hong Kong. The asymptotic stability of equilibria reveals that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, which in this study is a co-existence between a stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and an endemic equilibrium (EE). Even if the basic reproduction number ([Formula see text]) is less than unity, this disease cannot be eliminated. The effect of each parameter on the overall dynamics was assessed using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCCs). Transmission rates (i.e., [Formula see text] and [Formula see text]), effective contact ratio [Formula see text] between symptomatic individuals and quarantined people, and transfer rate [Formula see text] related to infection during quarantine were identified to be the most sensitive parameters. The effective contact ratios between the infectors and susceptible individuals in late July were found to be over twice as high as that in March of 2020, reflecting pandemic fatigue and the potential existence of infection during quarantine.
Texto completo:
1
Banco de datos:
MEDLINE
Asunto principal:
Pandemias
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudio:
Prognostic_studies
Límite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Rep
Año:
2022
Tipo del documento:
Article
País de afiliación:
Hong Kong