Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms for Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy Based on Inflammatory Markers.

ABSTRACT

Background: The value of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) compared with other inflammation-based scores in predicting the outcomes of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after curative resection remains unknown. This study aims to evaluate the predictive value of LDH and develop novel nomograms to predict postoperative recurrence and survival in these patients. Methods: This study retrospectively collected 1560 patients with HBV-related HCC who underwent curative resection from four institutions in China. In total, 924 patients were recruited from our center and randomly divided into the training cohort (n = 616) and internal validation (n = 308) cohorts. Additionally, 636 patients were selected from three other centers as the external validation cohort. The C index of inflammation-based scores was calculated and compared in the training cohort. Novel models were developed according to multivariable Cox regression analysis in the training cohort and validated in the internal and external validation cohorts. Results: LDH showed a higher C-index than other inflammation-based scores for recurrence survival (RFS, 0.60, 95% CI, 0.58-0.61) and overall survival (OS, 0.65, 95% CI, 0.63-0.68). The nomograms of RFS and OS were developed based on tumor diameter, macrovascular invasion, AFP, operative hemorrhage, tumor differentiation, tumor number and LDH and achieved a high C-index (0.78, 95% CI, 0.76-0.79 and 0.81, 95% CI, 0.79-0.83), which were remarkably higher than the C-indexes of the five conventional HCC staging systems (0.52-0.62 for RFS and 0.53-0.67 for OS). The nomograms were validated in the internal validation cohort (0.77 for RFS, 0.78 for OS) and external validation cohort (0.80 for RFS, 0.81 for OS) and performed well-fitted calibration curves. Conclusion: The two nomograms based on inflammatory markers achieved optimal prediction for RFS and OS of patients with HBV-related HCC after hepatectomy.